Evidence for Risk Estimate Precision: Implications for Individual Risk Communication

Behavioral Sciences and the Law

Volumn 33, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 111-127

  Harris, Grant T ^a,b   Lowenkamp, Christopher T ^c,d   Hilton, N Zoe ^b,e  

^a QUEEN S UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

^c Administrative Office of the US Courts   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI KANSAS CITY   (United States)

^e Mental Health Centre Penetanguishene   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; FEMALE; HUMAN; INTERPERSONAL COMMUNICATION; LEGISLATION AND JURISPRUDENCE; MALE; PROCEDURES; PSYCHOLOGY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; UNITED STATES; VIOLENCE;

ADULT; COMMUNICATION; FEMALE; HUMANS; MALE; RISK ASSESSMENT; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; UNITED STATES; VIOLENCE;

EID: 84923030215     PISSN: 07353936     EISSN: 10990798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bsl.2158     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. th ed.). New Providence, NJ: Matthew Bender & Company.
2. Campbell, M. A., French, S., & Gendreau, P. (2009). The prediction of violence in adult offenders: A meta-analytic comparison of instruments and methods of assessment. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 36, 567-590. DOI: 10.1177/0093854809333610
3. Farrington, D. P. (1985). Predicting self-reported and official delinquency. In D.P. Farrington, & R. Tarling (Eds.), Prediction in criminology. (pp. 150-173). New York: State University of New York Press.
4. Hanson, R. K., & Howard, P. D. (2010). Individual confidence intervals do not inform decision-makers about the accuracy of risk assessment evaluations. Law and Human Behavior, 34, 275-281. DOI: 10.1007/s10979-010-9227-3
5. Hanson, R. K., & Morton-Bourgon, K. (2009). The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: a meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies. Psychological Assessment, 21, 1-21. DOI: 10.1037/a0014421
6. Harrell, F. E., Lee, K. L., & Mark, D. B. (1996). Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors. Statistics in Medicine, 15, 361-387.
7. rd ed.). Washington DC: American Psychological Association.
8. Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2007). Characterizing the accuracy of actuarial violence risk assessments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 1638-1658. DOI: 10.1177/0093854807307029
9. Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2013). Bayes and base rates: What is an informative prior for actuarial violence risk assessment? Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 31, 103-124. DOI: 10.1002/bsl.2048
10. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (2002). Prospective replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients. Law and Human Behavior, 26, 377-394. DOI: 10.1023/A.1016347320889
11. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315-335. DOI: 10.1177/0093854893020004001
12. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., Lalumière, M. L., Boer, D., & Lang, C. (2003). A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders. Psychological Assessment, 15, 413-425. DOI: 10.1037/1040-3590.15.3.413
13. Harris, G. T., Harris, G. T., & Quinsey, V. L. (2008). Shall evidence-based risk assessment be abandoned? British Journal of Psychiatry, 192, 154. DOI: 10.1192/bjp.192.2.154
14. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (2010). Allegiance or fidelity? A clarifying reply. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 17, 82-89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2850.2009.01197.x
15. Hart, S. D., & Cooke, D. J. (2013). Another look at the (im-)precision of individual risk estimates made using actuarial risk assessment instruments. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 31, 81-102. DOI: 10.1002/bsl.2049
16. Hart, S. D., Michie, C., & Cooke, D. J. (2007). Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: Evaluating the 'margins of error' of group v. individual prediction of violence. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 190, 60-65. DOI: 10.1192/bjp.190.s60
17. Helmus, L. (2009). Re-norming Static-99 recidivism estimates: Exploring base rate variability across sex offender samples (Master's thesis). Available from ProQuest Dissertations and Theses database. (UMI No. MR58443)
18. Helmus, L., Hanson, R. K., Thornton, D., Babchishin, K. M., & Harris, A. J. R. (2012). Absolute recidivism rates predicted by Static-99R and Static-2002R sex offender risk assessment tools vary across samples: A meta-analysis. Criminal Justice & Behavior, 39, 1148-1171. DOI: 10.1177/0093854812443648
19. Johnson, J., VanBenschoten, S., Robinson, C. R., & Lowenkamp, C. T. (2011). The construction and validation of the federal Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA). Federal Probation, 75, 16-29.
20. Kroner, C., Stadtland, C., Eidt, M., & Nedopil, N. (2007). The validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) in predicting criminal recidivism. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 17, 89-100.
21. Looman, J. (2006). Comparison of two risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 193-206. DOI: 10.1007/s11194-006-9013-4
22. Lowenkamp, C. T., Johnson, J. L., Holsinger, A. M., VanBenschoten, S. W., & Robinson, C. R. (2013). The federal Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA): A construction and validation study. Psychological Services, 10, 87-96. DOI: 10.1037/a0030343
23. Lowenkamp, C. T., Holsinger, A. M., & Cohen, T. H. (2015). PCRA Revisited: Testing the Validity of the Federal Post Conviction Risk Assessment. Forthcoming Psychological Services.
24. Mills, J. F., Jones, M. N., & Kroner, D. G. (2005). An examination of the generalizability of the LSI-R and VRAG probability bins. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 32, 565-585.
25. Mossman, D. (1994). Assessing predictions of violence: Being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 783-792.
26. Mossman, D. (2006). Another look at interpreting risk categories. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 41-63. DOI: 10.1007/s11194-006-9001-8
27. Mossman, D., & Peng, H. (2014). Constructing "proper" ROCs from ordinal response data using weighted power functions. Medical Decision Making, 34, 523-535. DOI: 10.1177/0272989X13503046
28. Mossman, D., & Selke, T.M. (2007). Avoiding errors about "margins of error." British Journal of Psychiatry, 191, 561.
29. Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (2005). Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC area, Cohen's d, and r. Law and Human Behavior, 29, 615-620. DOI: 10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7
30. Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., & Lang, C. L. (2013).Validation of and revision to the VRAG and SORAG: The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R). Psychological Assessment, 25, 951-965. DOI: 10.1037/a0032878
31. Rossegger, A., Gerth, J., Seewald, K., Urbaniok, F., Singh, J. P., & Endrass, J. (2013). Current obstacles in replicating risk assessment findings: A systematic review of commonly used actuarial instruments. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 31, 154-164. DOI:10.1002/bsl.2044
32. Scurich, N., & John, R. (2011). The effect of framing actuarial risk probabilities on involuntary civil commitment decisions. Law and Human Behavior, 35, 83-91. DOI: 10.1007/s10979-010-9218-4
33. Skeem, J. L., Winter, E., Kennealy, P. J., Louden, J., & Tatar, J. R. (2014). Offenders with mental illness have criminogenic needs, too: Toward recidivism reduction. Law and Human Behavior, 38, 212-224. DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000054
34. Snowden, R. J., Gray, N. S., Taylor, J., & MacCulloch, M. J. (2007). Actuarial prediction of violent recidivism in mentally disordered offenders. Psychological Medicine, 37, 1539-1549. DOI: 10.1017/S0033291707000876
35. Starr, S. B. (2014). Evidence-based sentencing and the scientific rationalization of discrimination. Stanford Law Review, 66, 803-872.
36. Tengstrom, A. (2001). Long-term predictive validity of historical factors in two risk assessment instruments in a group of violent offenders with schizophrenia. Nordic Journal of Psychiatry, 55, 243-249.
37. United States Courts Administrative Office . (2012). Post Conviction Risk Assessment User's Manual. Unpublished document, United States Courts Administrative Office Washington D.C.