메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 31, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 81-102

Another Look at the (Im-)Precision of Individual Risk Estimates Made Using Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CANADA; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; HUMAN; MALE; METHODOLOGY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEXUAL CRIME; STANDARD; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; VIOLENCE;

EID: 84874289020     PISSN: 07353936     EISSN: 10990798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bsl.2049     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (52)

References (59)
  • 1
    • 0032377357 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Approximate is better than 'exact' for interval estimation of binomial proportions
    • Agresti, A., & Coull, B. A. (1998). Approximate is better than 'exact' for interval estimation of binomial proportions. American Statistician, 52, 119-126.
    • (1998) American Statistician , vol.52 , pp. 119-126
    • Agresti, A.1    Coull, B.A.2
  • 2
    • 0034728356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What do we mean by validating a prognostic model?
    • Altman, D. G., & Royston, P. (2000). What do we mean by validating a prognostic model? Statistics in Medicine, 19, 453-473.
    • (2000) Statistics in Medicine , vol.19 , pp. 453-473
    • Altman, D.G.1    Royston, P.2
  • 3
    • 84874325656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20)
    • In B. L. Cutler (Ed.) Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
    • Boer, D. P., & Hart, S. D. (2008). Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20). In B. L. Cutler (Ed.), Encyclopedia of psychology and law (pp. 743-744). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
    • (2008) Encyclopedia of psychology and law , pp. 743-744
    • Boer, D.P.1    Hart, S.D.2
  • 5
    • 77955515778 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Limitations of diagnostic precision and predictive utility in the individual case: A challenge for forensic practice
    • Cooke, D. J. & Michie, C. (2010). Limitations of diagnostic precision and predictive utility in the individual case: A challenge for forensic practice. Law and Human Behavior, 34, 259-274.
    • (2010) Law and Human Behavior , vol.34 , pp. 259-274
    • Cooke, D.J.1    Michie, C.2
  • 6
    • 84920934035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Violence risk assessment: Challenging the illusion of certainty
    • In B. McSherry & P. Keyzer (Eds.), Oxford, UK: Routledge -.
    • Cooke, D. J., & Michie, C. (2011). Violence risk assessment: Challenging the illusion of certainty. In B. McSherry & P. Keyzer (Eds.), Dangerous people: Policy, prediction and practice. Oxford, UK: Routledge, pp. 147-161.
    • (2011) Dangerous people: Policy, prediction and practice , pp. 147-161
    • Cooke, D.J.1    Michie, C.2
  • 7
    • 84914666362 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Violence Risk Assessment: From Prediction to understanding, from what? to why?
    • In C. Logan & E. Johnstone (Eds.), London: Routledge.
    • Cooke, D. J., & Michie, C. (2012). Violence Risk Assessment: From Prediction to understanding, from what? to why? In C. Logan & E. Johnstone (Eds.), Managing clinical risk: A guide to effective practice. London: Routledge.
    • (2012) Managing clinical risk: A guide to effective practice
    • Cooke, D.J.1    Michie, C.2
  • 8
    • 84874305596 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precision of estimates do matter: Weighing the evidence in individual predictions of recidivism. Unpublished Manuscript.
    • Cooke, D. J., Michie, C., & Hart, S. D. (2012). Precision of estimates do matter: Weighing the evidence in individual predictions of recidivism. Unpublished Manuscript.
    • (2012)
    • Cooke, D.J.1    Michie, C.2    Hart, S.D.3
  • 9
    • 84874301794 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • COVR, Inc., amp; PAR Staff Score report. Retrieved August 3, 2012 from
    • COVR, Inc., & PAR Staff (2005). Score report. Retrieved August 3, 2012 from http://www4.parinc.com/WebUploads/samplerpts/COVR.pdf
    • (2005)
  • 10
    • 85006404250 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Best practice in conducting actuarial risk assessments with adult sexual offenders
    • Craig, L., & Beech, A. R. (2009). Best practice in conducting actuarial risk assessments with adult sexual offenders. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 15(2), 193-211.
    • (2009) Journal of Sexual Aggression , vol.15 , Issue.2 , pp. 193-211
    • Craig, L.1    Beech, A.R.2
  • 11
    • 20844451227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An actuarial model for assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates
    • Cunningham, M. D., Sorensen, J. R., & Reidy, T. J. (2005). An actuarial model for assessment of prison violence risk among maximum security inmates. Assessment, 12, 40-49.
    • (2005) Assessment , vol.12 , pp. 40-49
    • Cunningham, M.D.1    Sorensen, J.R.2    Reidy, T.J.3
  • 12
    • 84874339151 scopus 로고
    • Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 509 U.S. 579
    • Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 509 U.S. 579 (1993).
    • (1993)
  • 15
    • 84864571331 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence and antisocial behaviour in 73 samples involving 24 827 people: Systematic review and meta-analysis
    • DOI: 10.1136/bmj.e4692
    • Fazel, S., Singh, J. P., Doll, H., & Grann, M. (2012). Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence and antisocial behaviour in 73 samples involving 24 827 people: Systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ, 345, e4692. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.e4692
    • (2012) BMJ , vol.345
    • Fazel, S.1    Singh, J.P.2    Doll, H.3    Grann, M.4
  • 16
    • 0026489133 scopus 로고
    • Is it unethical to offer predictions of future violence?
    • Grisso, T., & Appelbaum, P. S. (1992). Is it unethical to offer predictions of future violence? Law and Human Behavior, 16, 621-633.
    • (1992) Law and Human Behavior , vol.16 , pp. 621-633
    • Grisso, T.1    Appelbaum, P.S.2
  • 17
    • 0000333672 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy
    • Grove, W. M., & Meehl, P. E. (1996). Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 293-323.
    • (1996) Psychology, Public Policy, and Law , vol.2 , pp. 293-323
    • Grove, W.M.1    Meehl, P.E.2
  • 18
    • 33845705676 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interpretations of probability
    • In E. N. Zalta (Ed.), Summer 2003 ed. Retrieved July 27, 2006 from
    • Hájek, A. (2003). Interpretations of probability. In E. N. Zalta (Ed.), The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy, Summer 2003 ed. Retrieved July 27, 2006 from http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret.
    • (2003) The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy
    • Hájek, A.1
  • 19
    • 34248226508 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Induction and probability
    • In P. Machamer & M. Silberstein (Eds.) London: Blackwell.
    • Hájek, A., & Hall, N. (2002). Induction and probability. In P. Machamer & M. Silberstein (Eds.), The Blackwell Guide to the philosophy of science (pp. 149-172). London: Blackwell.
    • (2002) The Blackwell Guide to the philosophy of science , pp. 149-172
    • Hájek, A.1    Hall, N.2
  • 20
    • 77955511603 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting recividism amongst sexual offenders: A multi-site study of Static-2002
    • Hanson, R. K., Helmus, L., & Thornton, D. (2010). Predicting recividism amongst sexual offenders: A multi-site study of Static-2002. Law and Human Behavior, 34, 198-211.
    • (2010) Law and Human Behavior , vol.34 , pp. 198-211
    • Hanson, R.K.1    Helmus, L.2    Thornton, D.3
  • 21
    • 77955516045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individual confidence intervals do not inform decision makers about the accuracy of risk assessment evaluations
    • Hanson, R. K., & Howard, P. D. (2010). Individual confidence intervals do not inform decision makers about the accuracy of risk assessment evaluations. Law and Human Behavior, 34, 275-281.
    • (2010) Law and Human Behavior , vol.34 , pp. 275-281
    • Hanson, R.K.1    Howard, P.D.2
  • 24
    • 84973806702 scopus 로고
    • Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument
    • Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315-335.
    • (1993) Criminal Justice and Behavior , vol.20 , pp. 315-335
    • Harris, G.T.1    Rice, M.E.2    Quinsey, V.L.3
  • 27
    • 0031930452 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of psychopathy in assessing risk for violence: Conceptual and methodological issues
    • Hart, S. D. (1998). The role of psychopathy in assessing risk for violence: Conceptual and methodological issues. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 3, 121-137.
    • (1998) Legal and Criminological Psychology , vol.3 , pp. 121-137
    • Hart, S.D.1
  • 29
    • 84874334408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence-based assessment of risk for sexual violence
    • Hart, S. D. (2009). Evidence-based assessment of risk for sexual violence. Chapman Journal of Criminal Justice, 1, 143-165.
    • (2009) Chapman Journal of Criminal Justice , vol.1 , pp. 143-165
    • Hart, S.D.1
  • 31
    • 84874334370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Complexity, uncertainty, and the reconceptualization of violence risk assessment
    • In R. Abrunhosa (Ed.) Brussels: Politeia. (Original work published in 2004.)
    • Hart, S. D. (2011). Complexity, uncertainty, and the reconceptualization of violence risk assessment. In R. Abrunhosa (Ed.), Victims and offenders: Chapters on psychology and law (pp. 57-69). Brussels: Politeia. (Original work published in 2004.)
    • (2011) Victims and offenders: Chapters on psychology and law , pp. 57-69
    • Hart, S.D.1
  • 32
    • 84886005701 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Formulation of violence risk using evidence-based assessments: The structured professional judgment approach
    • In P. Sturmey & M. McMurran (Eds.) Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell.
    • Hart, S. D., & Logan, C. (2011). Formulation of violence risk using evidence-based assessments: The structured professional judgment approach. In P. Sturmey & M. McMurran (Eds.), Forensic case formulation (pp. 83-106). Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell.
    • (2011) Forensic case formulation , pp. 83-106
    • Hart, S.D.1    Logan, C.2
  • 33
    • 34248149030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: Evaluating the "margins of error" of group v. individual predictions of violence
    • Hart, S. D., Michie, C., & Cooke, D. J. (2007a). Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: Evaluating the "margins of error" of group v. individual predictions of violence. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 190, s60-s65.
    • (2007) The British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.190
    • Hart, S.D.1    Michie, C.2    Cooke, D.J.3
  • 34
    • 37249073306 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Authors' reply: Margins of error for individual risk estimates: Large, unknown, or incalculable [Letter]
    • Hart, S. D., Michie, C., & Cooke, D. J. (2007b). Authors' reply: Margins of error for individual risk estimates: Large, unknown, or incalculable [Letter]. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 191, 561-562.
    • (2007) The British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.191 , pp. 561-562
    • Hart, S.D.1    Michie, C.2    Cooke, D.J.3
  • 35
    • 39449101163 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Authors' reply: Evaluating the precision (and accuracy!) of criticisms [Letter]
    • Hart, S. D., Michie, C., & Cooke, D. J. (2008). Authors' reply: Evaluating the precision (and accuracy!) of criticisms [Letter]. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 192, 154.
    • (2008) The British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.192 , pp. 154
    • Hart, S.D.1    Michie, C.2    Cooke, D.J.3
  • 36
    • 29544445940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individual survival time prediction using statistical models
    • Henderson, R., & Keiding, N. (2005). Individual survival time prediction using statistical models. Journal of Medical Ethics, 31, 703-706.
    • (2005) Journal of Medical Ethics , vol.31 , pp. 703-706
    • Henderson, R.1    Keiding, N.2
  • 37
    • 33645664750 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sixty-six years of research on the clinical versus actuarial prediction of violence
    • Hilton, N. Z., Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2006). Sixty-six years of research on the clinical versus actuarial prediction of violence. The Counseling Psychologist, 34, 400-409.
    • (2006) The Counseling Psychologist , vol.34 , pp. 400-409
    • Hilton, N.Z.1    Harris, G.T.2    Rice, M.E.3
  • 39
    • 0026346152 scopus 로고
    • The importance of assessing the fit of logistic regression models: A case study
    • Hosmer, D. W., Taber, S., & Lemeshow, S. (1991). The importance of assessing the fit of logistic regression models: A case study. American Journal of Public Health, 81, 1630-1635.
    • (1991) American Journal of Public Health , vol.81 , pp. 1630-1635
    • Hosmer, D.W.1    Taber, S.2    Lemeshow, S.3
  • 40
    • 2442561637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forensic use of actuarial risk assessment with sex offenders: Accuracy, admissibility and accountability
    • Janus, E., & Prentky, R. (2003). Forensic use of actuarial risk assessment with sex offenders: Accuracy, admissibility and accountability. American Criminal Law Review, 40, 1443-1499.
    • (2003) American Criminal Law Review , vol.40 , pp. 1443-1499
    • Janus, E.1    Prentky, R.2
  • 41
    • 0003768818 scopus 로고
    • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., amp; Tversky, A. (Eds.) . New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.) (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
  • 43
    • 84874294536 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Kumho Tire Co. v. Carmichael, 526 U.S. 137
    • Kumho Tire Co. v. Carmichael, 526 U.S. 137 (1999).
    • (1999)
  • 44
    • 67649125478 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Violence risk assessment: Research, legal, and clinical considerations
    • In I. B. Weiner & A. K. Hess (Eds.), 3rd ed. (pp. -). New York: Wiley.
    • Litwack, T. R., Zapf, P. A., Groscup, J. L., & Hart, S. D. (2006). Violence risk assessment: Research, legal, and clinical considerations. In I. B. Weiner & A. K. Hess (Eds.), The handbook of forensic psychology, 3rd ed. (pp. 487-533). New York: Wiley.
    • (2006) The handbook of forensic psychology , pp. 487-533
    • Litwack, T.R.1    Zapf, P.A.2    Groscup, J.L.3    Hart, S.D.4
  • 47
    • 78649912490 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The power of quantitative thinking
    • In N. G. Waller, L. J. Yonce, W. M. Grove, D. R. Faust, amp; M. F. Lenzenweger (Eds.) Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
    • Meehl, P. E. (2006). The power of quantitative thinking. In N. G. Waller, L. J. Yonce, W. M. Grove, D. R. Faust, & M. F. Lenzenweger (Eds.), A Paul Meehl Reader: Essays on the practice of scientific psychology (pp. 433-444). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
    • (2006) A Paul Meehl Reader: Essays on the practice of scientific psychology , pp. 433-444
    • Meehl, P.E.1
  • 50
    • 37249017436 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Avoiding errors about "margins of error" [Letter]
    • Mossman, D., & Sellke, T. (2007). Avoiding errors about "margins of error" [Letter]. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 191, 561.
    • (2007) The British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.191 , pp. 561
    • Mossman, D.1    Sellke, T.2
  • 56
    • 33750410205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A view of future APL science and technology: Guest Editor's introduction
    • Sommerer, J. C. (2005). A view of future APL science and technology: Guest Editor's introduction. Johns Hopkins APL Technical Digest, 26, 298-305.
    • (2005) Johns Hopkins APL Technical Digest , vol.26 , pp. 298-305
    • Sommerer, J.C.1
  • 57
    • 84874327651 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • StataCorp. [Software]. College Station, Texas: Author.
    • StataCorp. (2007). Stata/SE, Version 10.0 [Software]. College Station, Texas: Author.
    • (2007) Stata/SE, Version 10.0
  • 58
    • 0033547616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When can a risk factor be used as a worthwhile screening test
    • Wald, N. J., Hackshaw, A. K., & Frost, C. D. (1999). When can a risk factor be used as a worthwhile screening test. British Medical Journal, 319, 1562-1565.
    • (1999) British Medical Journal , vol.319 , pp. 1562-1565
    • Wald, N.J.1    Hackshaw, A.K.2    Frost, C.D.3
  • 59
    • 84946650481 scopus 로고
    • Probable inference, the law of succession, and statistical inference
    • Wilson, E. B. (1927). Probable inference, the law of succession, and statistical inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 22, 209-212.
    • (1927) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.22 , pp. 209-212
    • Wilson, E.B.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.