Analysis of accident injury-severities using a correlated random parameters ordered probit approach with time variant covariates

Analytic Methods in Accident Research

Volumn 18, Issue , 2018, Pages 57-68

  Fountas, Grigorios ^a   Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch ^b   Abdel Aty, Mohamed ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO   (United States)

^b University at Buffalo The State University of New York   (United States)

^c University of Central Florida   (United States)

Author keywords

Accident injury severity; Correlated random parameters; Ordered probit; Time variant parameters

Indexed keywords

COVARIANCE MATRIX; PAVEMENTS;

INJURY SEVERITY; ORDERED PROBIT; PREDICTION PERFORMANCE; RANDOM PARAMETERS; STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE; SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE; TIME-VARIANT PARAMETERS; UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY;

ACCIDENTS;

EID: 85047008350     PISSN: 22136657     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2018.04.003     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Abdel-Aty, M., Analysis of driver injury severity levels at multiple locations using ordered probit models. Journal of Safety Research 34:5 (2003), 597–603.
2. Abdel-Aty, M., Ekram, A.A., Huang, H., Choi, K., A study on crashes related to visibility obstruction due to fog and smoke. Accident Analysis and Prevention 43:5 (2011), 1730–1737.
3. Alarifi, S., Abdel-Aty, M., Lee, J., Park, J., Crash modeling for intersections and segments along corridors: a Bayesian multilevel joint model with random parameters. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 16 (2017), 48–59.
4. Anderson, J., Hernandez, S., Roadway classifications and the accident injury severities of heavy-vehicle drivers. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 15 (2017), 17–28.
5. Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Mannering, F.L., A note on modeling vehicle accident frequencies with random-parameters count models. Accident Analysis and Prevention 41:1 (2009), 153–159.
6. Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Mannering, F.L., An empirical assessment of fixed and random parameter logit models using crash-and non-crash-specific injury data. Accident Analysis and Prevention 43:3 (2011), 1140–1147.
7. Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Mannering, F.L., The effect of speed limits on drivers’ choice of speed: a random parameters seemingly unrelated equations approach. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 10 (2016), 1–11.
8. Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Random parameters multivariate tobit and zero-inflated count data models: addressing unobserved and zero-state heterogeneity in accident injury-severity rate and frequency analysis. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 11 (2016), 17–32.
9. Andersson, A., Chapman, L., The use of a temporal analogue to predict future traffic accidents and winter road conditions in Sweden. Meteorological Applications 18:2 (2011), 125–136.
10. Behnood, A., Roshandeh, A.M., Mannering, F.L., Latent class analysis of the effects of age, gender, and alcohol consumption on driver-injury severities. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 3 (2014), 56–91.
11. Behnood, A., Mannering, F., The effect of passengers on driver-injury severities in single-vehicle crashes: a random parameters heterogeneity-in-means approach. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 14 (2017), 41–53.
12. Behnood, A., Mannering, F., Determinants of bicyclist injury severities in bicycle-vehicle crashes: a random parameters approach with heterogeneity in means and variances. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 16 (2017), 35–47.
13. Bhat, C., Simulation estimation of mixed discrete choice models using randomized and scrambled Halton sequences. Transportation Research Part B 37:1 (2003), 837–855.
14. Bhat, C.R., The maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation of multinomial probit-based unordered response choice models. Transportation Research Part B 45:7 (2011), 923–939.
15. Bhat, C.R., Sidharthan, R., A simulation evaluation of the maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimator for mixed multinomial probit models. Transportation Research Part B 45:7 (2011), 940–953.
16. Bhat, C., Paleti, R., Pendyala, R., Lorenzini, K., Konduri, K., Accommodating immigration status and self-selection effects in a joint model of household auto ownership and residential location choice. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2382 (2013), 142–150.
17. Bhat, C., Astroza, S., Lavieri, P., A new spatial and flexible multivariate random-coefficients model for the analysis of pedestrian injury counts by severity level. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 16 (2017), 1–22.
18. Bogue, S., Paleti, R., Balan, L., A Modified Rank Ordered Logit model to analyze injury severity of occupants in multivehicle crashes. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 14 (2017), 22–40.
19. Caliendo, C., Guida, M., Parisi, A., A crash-prediction model for multilane roads. Accident Analysis and Prevention 39:4 (2007), 657–670.
20. Chen, S., Saeed, T.U., Labi, S., Impact of road-surface condition on rural highway safety: a multivariate random parameters negative binomial approach. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 16 (2017), 75–89.
21. Christoforou, Z., Cohen, S., Karlaftis, M.G., Identifying crash type propensity using real-time traffic data on freeways. Journal of Safety research 42:1 (2011), 43–50.
22. El-Basyouny, K., Barua, S., Islam, M.T., Investigation of time and weather effects on crash types using full Bayesian multivariate Poisson lognormal models. Accident Analysis and Prevention 73 (2014), 91–99.
23. El-Basyouny, K., Kwon, D.W., 2012. Assessing time and weather effects on collision frequency by severity in Edmonton using multivariate safety performance functions. In: 91st Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.
24. Eluru, N., Yasmin, S., A note on generalized ordered outcome models. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 8 (2015), 1–6.
25. Fountas, G., Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., A random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered probit analysis of highway accident injury-severities. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 15 (2017), 1–16.
26. Fountas, G., Sarwar, M.T., Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Blatt, A., Majka, K., Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: a dynamic correlated random parameters binary logit approach. Accident Analysis and Prevention 113 (2018), 330–340.
27. Fountas, G., Anastasopoulos, P.Ch, Mannering, F.L., Analysis of vehicle accident-injury severities: a comparison of segment- versus accident-based latent class ordered probit models with class-probability functions. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 118 (2018), 15–32.
28. Greene, W., LIMDEP Version 11.0. 2016, Econometric Software, Inc., Plainview, NY.
29. Haleem, K., Abdel-Aty, M., Examining traffic crash injury severity at unsignalized intersections. Journal of Safety Research 41:4 (2010), 347–357.
30. Halton, J., On the efficiency of certain quasi-random sequences of points in evaluating multi-dimensional integrals. Numerische Mathematik 2 (1960), 84–90.
31. Heydari, S., Fu, L., Miranda-Moreno, L.F., Joseph, L., Using a flexible multivariate latent class approach to model correlated outcomes: a joint analysis of pedestrian and cyclist injuries. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 13 (2017), 16–27.
32. Hill, J.D., Boyle, L.N., Assessing the relative risk of severe injury in automotive crashes for older female occupants. Accident Analysis and Prevention 38:1 (2006), 148–154.
33. Jung, S., Qin, X., Noyce, D.A., Rainfall effect on single-vehicle crash severities using polychotomous response models. Accident Analysis and Prevention 42:1 (2010), 213–224.
34. Jung, S., Qin, X., Noyce, D.A., Injury severity of multivehicle crash in rainy weather. Journal of Transportation Engineering 138:1 (2011), 50–59.
35. Kim, J.K., Ulfarsson, G.F., Shankar, V.N., Mannering, F.L., A note on modeling pedestrian-injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes with the mixed logit model. Accident Analysis and Prevention 42:6 (2010), 1751–1758.
36. Kopelias, P., Papadimitriou, F., Papandreou, K., Prevedouros, P., Urban freeway crash analysis: geometric, operational, and weather effects on crash number and severity. Transportation Research Record 2015 (2007), 123–131.
37. Ma, J., Kockelman, K.M., 2004. Anticipating injury & death: Controlling for new variables on southern California highways. In: 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.
38. Mannering, F.L., Bhat, C., Analytic methods in accident research: methodological frontier and future directions. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 1 (2014), 1–22.
39. Mannering, F.L., Shankar, V., Bhat, C.R., Unobserved heterogeneity and the statistical analysis of highway accident data. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 11 (2016), 1–16.
40. Milton, J.C., Shankar, V.N., Mannering, F.L., Highway accident severities and the mixed logit model: an exploratory empirical analysis. Accident Analysis and Prevention 40:1 (2008), 260–266.
41. Mohamed, M.G., Saunier, N., Miranda-Moreno, L.F., Ukkusuri, S.V., A clustering regression approach: a comprehensive injury severity analysis of pedestrian–vehicle crashes in New York, US and Montreal, Canada. Safety Science 54 (2013), 27–37.
42. Nahidi, S., Fountas, G., Sarvani, S.P., Sarwar, M.T., Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Project discrepancies in roadway construction and preservation: a statistical analysis of public-private partnership contract types in the US. Frontiers in Built Environment, 3, 2017, 15.
43. Paleti, R., Bhat, C., Pendyala, R., Goulias, K., Modeling of household vehicle type choice accommodating spatial dependence effects. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2343 (2013), 86–94.
44. Paleti, R., Bhat, C., Pendyala, R., Integrated model of residential location, work location, vehicle ownership, and commute tour characteristics. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2382 (2013), 162–172.
45. Peng, Y., Boyle, L., Commercial driver factors in run-off-road crashes. Transportation Research Record 2281 (2012), 128–132.
46. Rana, T., Sikder, S., Pinjari, A., Copula-based method for addressing endogeneity in models of severity of traffic crash injuries: application to two-vehicle crashes. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2147 (2010), 75–87.
47. Russo, B.J., Savolainen, P.T., Schneider, W.H., Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Comparison of factors affecting injury severity in angle collisions by fault status using a random parameters bivariate ordered probit model. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 2 (2014), 21–29.
48. Sarwar, M.T., Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Golshani, N., Hulme, K.F., Grouped random parameters bivariate probit analysis of perceived and observed aggressive driving behavior: a driving simulation study. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 13 (2017), 52–64.
49. Sarwar, M.T., Fountas, G., Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Simultaneous estimation of discrete outcome and continuous dependent variable equations: a bivariate random effects modeling approach with unrestricted instruments. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 16 (2017), 23–34.
50. Sarwar, M., Fountas, G., Bentley, C., Anastasopoulos, P.Ch., Blatt, A., Pierowicz, J., Majka, K., Limoges, R., Preliminary investigation of the effectiveness of high visibility crosswalks on pedestrian safety using crash surrogates. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2659 (2017), 182–191.
51. Savolainen, P.T., Mannering, F.L., Lord, D., Quddus, M.A., The statistical analysis of highway crash-injury severities: a review and assessment of methodological alternatives. Accident Analysis and Prevention 43:5 (2011), 1666–1676.
52. Seraneeprakarn, P., Huang, S., Shankar, V., Mannering, F., Venkataraman, N., Milton, J., Occupant injury severities in hybrid-vehicle involved crashes: a random parameters approach with heterogeneity in means and variances. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 15 (2017), 41–55.
53. Theofilatos, A., Yannis, G., A review of the effect of traffic and weather characteristics on road safety. Accident Analysis and Prevention 72 (2014), 244–256.
54. Train, K., Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. 2003, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
55. Washington, S., Karlaftis, M., Mannering, F.L., Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis. Second ed., 2011, Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton.
56. Winston, C., Maheshri, V., Mannering, F., An exploration of the offset hypothesis using disaggregate data: the case of airbags and antilock brakes. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 32:2 (2006), 83–99.
57. Xie, Y., Zhao, K., Huynh, N., Analysis of driver injury severity in rural single-vehicle crashes. Accident Analysis and Prevention 47 (2012), 36–44.
58. Xu, C., Wang, W., Liu, P., Identifying crash-prone traffic conditions under different weather on freeways. Journal of Safety Research 46 (2013), 135–144.
59. Yamamoto, T., Shankar, V.N., Bivariate ordered-response probit model of driver's and passenger's injury severities in collisions with fixed objects. Accident Analysis and Prevention 36:5 (2004), 869–876.
60. Yamamoto, T., Hashiji, J., Shankar, V.N., Underreporting in traffic accident data, bias in parameters and the structure of injury severity models. Accident Analysis and Prevention 40:4 (2008), 1320–1329.
61. Yasmin, S., Eluru, N., Evaluating alternate discrete outcome frameworks for modeling crash injury severity. Accident Analysis and Prevention 59 (2013), 506–521.
62. Yasmin, S., Eluru, N., Bhat, C., Tay, R., A latent segmentation based generalized ordered logit model to examine factors influencing driver injury severity. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 1 (2014), 23–38.
63. Yasmin, S., Eluru, N., Pinjari, A.R., Analyzing the continuum of fatal crashes: a generalized ordered approach. Analytic Methods in Accident Research 7 (2015), 1–15.
64. Yasmin, S., Eluru, N., Pinjari, A.R., Pooling data from fatality analysis reporting system (FARS) and generalized estimates system (GES) to explore the continuum of injury severity spectrum. Accident Analysis and Prevention 84 (2015), 112–127.
65. Yu, R., Abdel-Aty, M., Analyzing crash injury severity for a mountainous freeway incorporating real-time traffic and weather data. Safety Science 63 (2014), 50–56.
66. Yu, R., Abdel-Aty, M., Using hierarchical Bayesian binary probit models to analyze crash injury severity on high speed facilities with real-time traffic data. Accident Analysis and Prevention 62 (2014), 161–167.
67. Yu, R., Xiong, Y., Abdel-Aty, M., A correlated random parameter approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on crash risk for a mountainous freeway. Transportation Research Part C 50 (2015), 68–77.