Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015

Journal of Climate

Volumn 31, Issue 6, 2018, Pages 2465-2486

  Philip, Sjoukje ^a   Kew, Sarah F ^a   van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan ^a   Otto, Friederike ^b   O'Keefe, Sarah ^b   Haustein, Karsten ^b   King, Andrew ^c   Zegeye, Abiy ^d   Eshetu, Zewdu ^d   Hailemariam, Kinfe ^e   Singh, Roop ^f   Jjemba, Eddie ^f   Funk, Chris ^g   Cullen, Heidi ^h  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^d ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY   (Ethiopia)

^e National Meteorological Services Agency   (Ethiopia)

^f Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre   (Netherlands)

^g UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^h Climate Central   (United States)

Author keywords

Africa; Climate change; Climate models; Drought; ENSO; Statistical techniques

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; DROUGHT; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PROBABILITY; RAIN; SOIL MOISTURE;

AFRICA; ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGES; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; ENSO; LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION; NATURAL VARIABILITY; SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS; STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; PROBABILITY; RAINFALL;

ETHIOPIA;

EID: 85042064100     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0274.1     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. AKLDP, 2016: El Niño in Ethiopia, 2015-2016: A real-time review of impacts and responses. USAID Agriculture Knowledge, Learning, Documentation and Policy Project 663-13-000006, 28 pp., http://www.agri-learning-ethiopia.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/AKLDP-El-Nino-Review-March-2016.pdf
2. Anderson, W. B., B. F. Zaitchik, C. R. Hain, M. C. Anderson, M. T. Yilmaz, J. Mecikalski, and L. Schultz, 2012: Towards an integrated soil moisture drought monitor for East Africa. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2893-2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2893-2012
3. Bagayoko, F., S. Yonkeu, and N. C. van de Giesen, 2006: Effect of seasonal dynamics of vegetation cover on land surface models: A case study of Noah LSM over a savanna farm land in eastern Burkina Faso, West Africa. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 2757-2788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-3-2757-2006
4. Barlage, M., and Coauthors, 2010: Noah land surface model modifications to improve snowpack prediction in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D22101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013470
5. Bindoff, N. L., and Coauthors, 2013: Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 867-952
6. Boone, A., and Coauthors, 2009: The AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1865-1880, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2786.1
7. Camberlin, P., 1997: Rainfall anomalies in the source region of the Nile and their connection with the Indian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 10, 1380-1392, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1380:RAITSR>2.0.CO;2
8. Cheung, W. H., G. B. Senay, and A. Singh, 2008: Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1723-1734, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1623
9. Degefu, W., 1987: Some aspects of meteorological drought in Ethiopia. Drought and Hunger in Africa: Denying Famine a Future, M. H. Glanz, Ed., Cambridge University Press, 23-36
10. Diro, G. T., E. Black, and D. I. F. Grimes, 2008: Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. Meteor. Appl., 15, 73-83, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.63
11. Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes, and E. Black, 2011: Large scale features affecting Ethiopian rainfall. African Climate and Climate Change, C. J. R. Williams and D. R. Kniveton, Eds., Vol. 43, Advances in Global Change Research Series, Springer, 13-50
12. Diro, G. T., D. I. F. Grimes, and E. Black, 2011: Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: Part II. Seasonal forecasting. Climate Dyn., 37, 121-131, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x
13. Eden, J. M., K. Wolter, F. E. L. Otto, and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2016: Multi-method attribution analysis of extreme precipitation in Boulder, Colorado. Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 124009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124009
14. Ek, M. B., K. E. Mitchell, Y. Lin, E. Rogers, P. Grunmann, V. Koren, G. Gayno, and J. D. Tarpley, 2003: Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta Model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8851, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003296
15. Endalew, G. J., 2007: Changes in the frequency and intensity of extremes over northeast Africa. KNMI Sci. Rep. WR 2007-02, 45 pp
16. FEWS NET, 2015: Illustrating the extent and severity of the 2015 Ethiopia drought. FEWS Net Rep., 7 pp., http://www.fews.net/east-africa/ethiopia/special-report/december-17-2015
17. FEWS NET, 2017: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in parts of Oromia, SNNPR, and southern pastoral areas. FEWS Net Rep., 13 pp., http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/Ethiopia_OL_2016_10_final.pdf
18. Flato, G., and Coauthors, 2013: Evaluation of climate models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 741-866
19. Funk, C., and Coauthors, 2005: Recent drought tendencies in Ethiopia and equatorial subtropical eastern Africa. U.S. Agency for International Development, 12 pp., http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADH997.pdf
20. Funk, C., S. E. Nicholson, M. Landsfeld, D. Klotter, P. Peterson, and L. Harrison, 2015: The centennial trends Greater Horn of Africa precipitation dataset. Sci. Data, 2, 150050, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.50
21. Funk, C., S. Shukla, A. Hoell, and B. Livneh, 2015: Assessing the contributions of East African and west Pacific warming to the 2014 boreal spring East African drought [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, S77-S82, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00106.1
22. Funk, C., and Coauthors, 2015: The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations-A new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Sci. Data, 2, 150066, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66
23. Funk, C., L. Harrison, S. Shukla, A. Hoell, D. Korecha, T. Magadzire, G. Husak, and G. Galu, 2016: Assessing the contributions of local and east Pacific warming to the 2015 droughts in Ethiopia and southern Africa [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, S75-S80, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0167.1
24. Gissila, T., E. Black, D. I. F. Grimes, and J. M. Slingo, 2004: Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1345-1358, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1078
25. Government of Ethiopia and Humanitarian Partners, 2016: 2016 Ethiopia humanitarian requirements document. 54 pp., http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ethiopia_hrd_2016.pdf
26. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345
27. Hazeleger, W., and Coauthors, 2010: EC-Earth: A seamless Earth-system prediction approach in action. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1357-1363, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1
28. Hillbruner, C., and G. Moloney, 2012: When early warning is not enough-Lessons learned from the 2011 Somalia famine. Global Food Secur., 1, 20-28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2012.08.001
29. Hoerling, M., J. Hurrell, J. Eischeid, and A. Phillips, 2006: Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change. J. Climate, 19, 3989-4008, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3842.1
30. Huang, B., and Coauthors, 2015: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and intercomparisons. J. Climate, 28, 911-930, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1
31. IFRC, 2017: Emergency plan of action update-Ethiopia: Drought. IFRC Rep., 15 pp., http://adore.ifrc.org/Download.aspx?FileId=156069
32. IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, C. B. Field et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 582 pp., https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf
33. Jury, M. R., and C. Funk, 2013: Climatic trends over Ethiopia: Regional signals and drivers. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1924-1935, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3560
34. King, A. D., G. J. van Oldenborgh, and D. J. Karoly, 2016: Climate change and El Niño increase likelihood of Indonesian heat and drought [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, S113-S117, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0164.1
35. Korecha, D., and A. G. Barnston, 2007: Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 628-650, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3304.1
36. Korecha, D., and A. Sorteberg, 2013: Validation of operational seasonal rainfall forecast in Ethiopia. Water Resour. Res., 49, 7681-7697, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR013760
37. Liebmann, B., and Coauthors, 2014: Understanding recent eastern Horn of Africa rainfall variability and change. J. Climate, 27, 8630-8645, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00714.1
38. Lott, F. C., N. Christdis, and P. A. Stott, 2013: Can the 2011 East African drought be attributed to climate change? Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1177-1181, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50235
39. Lyon, B., and D. G. DeWitt, 2012: A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050337
40. Marthews, T. R., F. E. L. Otto, D. Mitchell, S. J. Dadson, and R. G. Jones, 2015: The 2014 drought in the Horn of Africa: Attribution of meteorological drivers [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, S83-S88, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00115.1
41. Massey, N., and Coauthors, 2015: Weather@home-Development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1528-1545, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2455
42. McNally, A., and Coauthors, 2015: Calculating crop water requirement satisfaction in the West Africa Sahel with remotely sensed soil moisture. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 295-305, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0049.1
43. McNally, A., and Coauthors, 2016: FLDAS Noah land surface model L4 monthly 0.1 × 0.1 degree for eastern Africa (MERRA-2 and CHIRPS), version 1. Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), accessed 12 December 2016, https://doi.org/10.5067/XLNQ30KMZVHX
44. McNally, A., and Coauthors, 2017: A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications. Sci. Data, 4, 170012, https://doi.org/10/1038/sdata.2017.12
45. Peterson, T. C., and R. S. Vose, 1997: An overview of the Global Historical Climatological Network temperature database. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2837-2849, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2837:AOOTGH>2.0.CO;2
46. Polson, D., M. Bollasina, G. C. Hegerl, and L. J. Wilcox, 2014: Decreased monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 6023-6029, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060811
47. Rowell, D. P., B. B. B. Booth, S. E. Nicholson, and P. Good, 2015: Reconciling past and future rainfall trends over East Africa. J. Climate, 28, 9768-9788, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0140.1
48. Schaller, N., F. E. L. Otto, G. J. van Oldenborgh, N. R. Massey, S. Sparrow, and M. R. Allen, 2014: The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, S69-S72, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
49. Schüttemeyer, D., A. F. Moene, A. A. M. Holtslag, and H. A. R. de Bruin, 2008: Evaluation of two land surface schemes used in terrains of increasing aridity in West Africa. J. Hydrometeor., 9, 173-193, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM797.1
50. Segele, Z. T., and P. J. Lamb, 2005: Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 153-180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x
51. Shongwe, M. E., G. J. van Oldenborgh, B. van den Hurk, and M. van Aalst, 2011: Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part II: East Africa. J. Climate, 24, 3718-3733, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1
52. Singh, R., and Coauthors, 2016: Reality of resilience: Perspectives of the 2015-16 drought in Ethiopia. BRACED Resilience Intel, No. 6, http://www.braced.org/resources/i/?id=18256c98-2a10-4586-9317-17a68b45c1a7
53. Sippel, S., F. E. L. Otto, M. Flach, and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2016: The role of anthropogenic warming in 2015 central European heat waves [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, S51-S56, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0150.1
54. Stark, J. D., C. J. Donlon, M. J. Martin, and M. E. McCulloch, 2007: OSTIA: An operational, high-resolution, real time, global sea surface temperature analysis system. Proc. OCEANS 2007-Europe, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom, IEEE, 061214-029, https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANSE.2007.4302251
55. Stone, D. A., and M. R. Allen, 2005: The end-to-end attribution problem: From emissions to impacts. Climatic Change, 71, 303-318, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-6778-2
56. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
57. Teuling, A. J., and Coauthors, 2013: Evapotranspiration amplifies European summer drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2071-2075, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50495
58. Uhe, P., F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, G. J. van Oldenborgh, A. D. King, D. C. H. Wallom, M. R. Allen, and H. Cullen, 2016: Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences. Geophys. Res. Lett, 43, 8685-8693, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069568
59. van der Wiel, K., and Coauthors, 2017: Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-897-2017
60. van Loon, A. F., and Coauthors, 2016: Drought in the Anthropocene. Nat. Geosci., 9, 89-91, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2646
61. van Oldenborgh, G. J., R. Haarsma, H. De Vries, and M. R. Allen, 2015: Cold extremes in North America vs. mild weather in Europe: The winter of 2013-14 in the context of a warming world. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 707-714, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00036.1
62. van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Coauthors, 2016: Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 1-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308
63. Viste, E., D. Korecha, and A. Sorteberg, 2013: Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 112, 535-551, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0746-3
64. Williams, A. P., and C. Funk, 2011: A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa. Climate Dyn., 37, 2417-2435, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y
65. Yilmaz, M. T., M. C. Anderson, B. Zaitchik, C. R. Hain, W. T. Crow, M. Ozdogan, J. A. Chun, and J. Evans, 2014: Comparison of prognostic and diagnostic surface flux modeling approaches over the Nile River basin. Water Resour. Res., 50, 386-408, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014194