메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 122, Issue , 2017, Pages

Likelihood ratio asweightofforensic evidence: Acloser look

Author keywords

Assumptions lattice; Bayes' rule; Bayes'factor; Bayesian decision theory; Subjective probability; Uncertainty; Uncertainty pyramid

Indexed keywords

CONVEYING; DECISION THEORY; LATTICE THEORY; REFRACTIVE INDEX;

EID: 85033205974     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21657254     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.6028/jres.122.027     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (63)

References (61)
  • 1
    • 85024125203 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Research Council Committee on Identifying the Needsof theForensic Sciences Community, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., Document No. 228091, National Academy of Sciences
    • National Research Council (2009) StrengtheningForensic Scienceinthe United States:APathForward. Committee on Identifying the Needsof theForensic Sciences Community, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., Document No. 228091, National Academy of Sciences.https://doi.org/10.17226/12589.
    • (2009) StrengtheningForensic Scienceinthe United States:APathForward
  • 3
    • 79958846558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Practitioner GuideNo1: Fundamentalsof Probability and Statistical Evidencein Criminal Proceedings-Guidance for Judges,Lawyers,Forensic Scientists and ExpertWitnesses
    • Communicating and Interpreting Statistical Evidence in the Administration of Criminal Justice. Prepared under the auspicesof theRoyal Statistical Society'sWorking Group on Statistics and theLaw, London, United Kingdom
    • Aitken CGG, RobertsP, JacksonG(2010) Practitioner GuideNo1: Fundamentalsof Probability and Statistical Evidencein Criminal Proceedings-Guidance for Judges,Lawyers,Forensic Scientists and ExpertWitnesses. Communicating and Interpreting Statistical Evidence in the Administration of Criminal Justice. Prepared under the auspicesof theRoyal Statistical Society'sWorking Group on Statistics and theLaw, London, United Kingdom.
    • (2010)
    • Aitken, CGG1    Roberts, P2    Jackson, G3
  • 6
    • 70349614075 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Whytheeffectofpriorodds should accompanythelikelihoodratiowhen reporting DNAevidence
    • MeesterR,SjerpsM(2004)Whytheeffectofpriorodds should accompanythelikelihoodratiowhen reporting DNAevidence. Law, Probability, and Risk 3:61-62. https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/3.1.51.
    • (2004) Law, Probability, and Risk , vol.3 , pp. 61-62
    • Meester, R1    Sjerps, M2
  • 7
    • 84855957239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understandingof forensicexpert reportsby judges, defenselawyers and forensic professionals
    • deKeijserJ, ElffersH(2012) Understandingof forensicexpert reportsby judges, defenselawyers and forensic professionals. Psychology, Crime&Law 18(2):191-207. https://doi.org/10.1080/10683161003736744.
    • (2012) Psychology, Crime&Law , vol.18 , Issue.2 , pp. 191-207
    • deKeijserJ, ElffersH1
  • 8
    • 84899836403 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Onthe interpretationoflikelihood ratiosin forensic science evidence: Presentation formats and the weak evidence effect
    • MartireKA,KempRI,SayleM,NewellBR(2014)Onthe interpretationoflikelihood ratiosin forensic science evidence: Presentation formats and the weak evidence effect. Forensic Science International240:61-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2014.04.005.
    • (2014) Forensic Science International240 , pp. 61-68
    • Martire, KA1    Kemp, RI2    Sayle, M3    Newell, BR4
  • 11
    • 84954288241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The philosophyof Bayes'factorsandthe quantifcationof statistical evidence
    • MoreyaRD, RomeijnaJ-W, RoudercJN (2016)The philosophyof Bayes'factorsandthe quantifcationof statistical evidence. Journal of Mathematical Psychology72:6-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2015.11.001.
    • (2016) Journal of Mathematical Psychology72 , pp. 6-18
    • Moreya, RD1    Romeijna, J-W2    Rouderc, JN3
  • 12
    • 0003984043 scopus 로고
    • (Dover, Mineola, NY) 2nd revised ed
    • Savage LJ (1972) TheFoundationsof Statistics (Dover, Mineola, NY) 2nd revised ed. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800010316.
    • (1972) TheFoundationsof Statistics
    • Savage, LJ1
  • 13
    • 36749086868 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (Wiley,NewYork), revised ed.,WileySeriesin Probability and Statistics
    • LindleyDV(2014) Understanding Uncertainty (Wiley,NewYork), revised ed.,WileySeriesin Probability and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1002/0470055480.
    • (2014) Understanding Uncertainty
    • Lindley, DV1
  • 14
    • 84925650221 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom), Econometric Society Monographs 45
    • GilboaI(2009) Theoryof Decision under Uncertainty (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom), Econometric Society Monographs 45. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511840203.
    • (2009) Theoryof Decision under Uncertainty
    • Gilboa, I1
  • 16
    • 84876704054 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do jurorsgive appropriate weightto forensic identifcation evidence?
    • ThompsonWC, KaasaSO,PetersonT(2013)Do jurorsgive appropriate weightto forensic identifcation evidence? Journal of Empirical Legal Studies10(2):359-397. https://doi.org/10.1111/jels.12013.
    • (2013) Journal of Empirical Legal Studies10 , Issue.2 , pp. 359-397
    • Thompson, WC1    Kaasa, SO2    Peterson, T3
  • 17
    • 84937073376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lay understandingof forensic statistics:Evaluationof random match probabilities, likelihood ratios, and verbal equivalents
    • ThompsonWC,NewmanEJ(2015)Lay understandingof forensic statistics:Evaluationof random match probabilities, likelihood ratios, and verbal equivalents. Law and Human Behavior 39(4):332-349. https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000134.
    • (2015) Law and Human Behavior , vol.39 , Issue.4 , pp. 332-349
    • Thompson, WC1    Newman, EJ2
  • 18
    • 0017640710 scopus 로고
    • Aproblemin forensic science
    • LindleyDV(1977)Aproblemin forensic science. Biometrika 64(2):207-213. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/64.2.207.
    • (1977) Biometrika , vol.64 , Issue.2 , pp. 207-213
    • Lindley, DV1
  • 19
    • 0004282950 scopus 로고
    • (Charles Griffn and CompanyLimited, London, United Kingdom)
    • Good IJ (1950) Probability and theWeighingof Evidence (Charles Griffn and CompanyLimited, London, United Kingdom). https://doi.org/10.1086/398369.
    • (1950) Probability and theWeighingof Evidence
    • Good, IJ1
  • 21
    • 8444245840 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayes's theorem and weighing evidence by juries
    • Dawid AP (2002) Bayes's theorem and weighing evidence by juries. Proceedings of the British Academy 113:71-90. https://doi.org/10.5871/bacad/9780197263419.001.0001.
    • (2002) Proceedings of the British Academy , vol.113 , pp. 71-90
    • Dawid, AP1
  • 22
    • 84861831181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Referenceguideon statistics
    • (National Academy Press,Washington, D.C), 3rd ed
    • KayeDH, FreedmanDA(2011)Referenceguideon statistics. Reference Manual on Scientifc Evidence (National Academy Press,Washington, D.C.), 3rd ed.,pp 211-302. https://doi.org/10.17226/13163.
    • (2011) Reference Manual on Scientifc Evidence , pp. 211-302
    • Kaye, DH1    Freedman, DA2
  • 23
    • 85123156761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (Chapman and Hall/CRCTextsin Statistical Science, Boca Raton, FL)
    • KadaneJ(2011) Principles of Uncertainty (Chapman and Hall/CRCTextsin Statistical Science, Boca Raton, FL). https://doi.org/10.1201/b11322.
    • (2011) Principles of Uncertainty
    • Kadane, J1
  • 24
    • 84973662808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Special Issue on Measuring and Reporting the PrecisionofForensic Likelihood Ratios, GS Morrison, Guest Editor
    • Science&Justice
    • Science&Justice (2016) Special Issue on Measuring and Reporting the PrecisionofForensic Likelihood Ratios, GS Morrison, Guest Editor. Science&Justice 56(5). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2016.05.002.
    • (2016) Science&Justice , vol.56 , Issue.5
  • 26
    • 84858425984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying the weightofevidence froma forensic fngerprint comparison: A new paradigm
    • NeumannC,EvettIW,SkerrettJ(2012) Quantifying the weightofevidence froma forensic fngerprint comparison: A new paradigm. Journalof the Royal Statistical SocietyA175(2):371-415. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.01027.x.
    • (2012) Journalof the Royal Statistical SocietyA175 , Issue.2 , pp. 371-415
    • Neumann, C1    Evett, IW2    Skerrett, J3
  • 28
  • 29
    • 84959871666 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Special Issue: Ninth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theory and Applications (ISIPTA'15)
    • AugustinT, DoriaS,MarinacciM(2016) Special Issue: Ninth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theory and Applications (ISIPTA'15). InternationalJournalof Approximate Reasoning 83:1-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2016.01.004.
    • (2016) InternationalJournalof Approximate Reasoning , vol.83 , pp. 1-280
    • Augustin, T1    Doria, S2    Marinacci, M3
  • 31
    • 0001530693 scopus 로고
    • Separating probability elicitation from utilities
    • KadaneJB,WinklerRL (1988) Separating probability elicitation from utilities. Journal of the American Statistical Association 83(402):357-363. https://doi.org/10.2307/2288850.
    • (1988) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.83 , Issue.402 , pp. 357-363
    • Kadane, JB1    Winkler, RL2
  • 32
    • 84988410922 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dismissalofthe illusionof uncertaintyinthe assessment of a likelihood ratio
    • AitkenCGG
    • TaroniF,BozzaS,BiedermannA,AitkenCGG(2016) Dismissalofthe illusionof uncertaintyinthe assessment of a likelihood ratio. Law, Probability and Risk 15:1-16. https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgv008.
    • (2016) Law, Probability and Risk , vol.15 , pp. 1-16
    • Taroni, F1    Bozza, S2    Biedermann, A3
  • 34
    • 2642558317 scopus 로고
    • Ph.D. dissertation. Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
    • Williamson RC (1989) Probabilistic Arithmetic, Ph.D. dissertation. Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. https://doi.org/10.14264/uql.2015.241.
    • (1989) Probabilistic Arithmetic
    • Williamson, RC1
  • 35
    • 0002063018 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic arithmetic.I. Numerical methodsfor calculating convolutionsand dependencybounds
    • WilliamsonR,DownsT(1990) Probabilistic arithmetic.I. Numerical methodsfor calculating convolutionsand dependencybounds. InternationalJournalof Approximate Reasoning 4(2):89-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/0888-613X(90)90022-T.
    • (1990) InternationalJournalof Approximate Reasoning , vol.4 , Issue.2 , pp. 89-158
    • Williamson, R1    Downs, T2
  • 36
    • 0028131950 scopus 로고
    • Propagationof uncertaintyin risk assessments: The needto distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability
    • HoffmanFO, HammondsJS(1994) Propagationof uncertaintyin risk assessments: The needto distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability. Risk Analysis 14(5):707-712. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00281.x.
    • (1994) Risk Analysis , vol.14 , Issue.5 , pp. 707-712
    • Hoffman, FO1    Hammonds, JS2
  • 38
    • 79952368491 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Envelopes around cumulative distribution functions from interval parametersof standard continuous distributions
    • Chicago, IL
    • ZhangJ, BerleantD(2003)Envelopes around cumulative distribution functions from interval parametersof standard continuous distributions. Proceedings of North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society (NAFIPS 2003), Chicago, IL, pp 407-412. https://doi.org/10.1109/NAFIPS.2003.1226819.
    • (2003) Proceedings of North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society (NAFIPS 2003) , pp. 407-412
    • Zhang, J1    Berleant, D2
  • 41
    • 0021603092 scopus 로고
    • The refractive index distributionof control glass samplesexaminedby the forensic science laboratories in the United Kingdom
    • LambertJA,EvettIW (1984)The refractive index distributionof control glass samplesexaminedby the forensic science laboratories in the United Kingdom. Forensic Science International, 26:1-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/0379-0738(84)90207-X.
    • (1984) Forensic Science International , vol.26 , pp. 1-23
    • Lambert, JA1    Evett, IW2
  • 42
    • 0017755011 scopus 로고
    • The interpretation of refractive index measurements
    • Evett IW (1977) The interpretation of refractive index measurements. Forensic Science9:209-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/0300-9432(77)90093-0.
    • (1977) Forensic Science9 , pp. 209-217
    • Evett, IW1
  • 43
    • 21844484845 scopus 로고
    • Nonparametric likelihood confdence bands for a distribution function
    • Owen AB (1995) Nonparametric likelihood confdence bands for a distribution function. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90(430):516-521. https://doi.org/10.2307/2291062.
    • (1995) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.90 , Issue.430 , pp. 516-521
    • Owen, AB1
  • 44
    • 45049084421 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal distribution-free confdence bands fora distribution function
    • FreyJ(2008) Optimal distribution-free confdence bands fora distribution function. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 138:3086-3098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2007.12.001.
    • (2008) Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference , vol.138 , pp. 3086-3098
    • Frey, J1
  • 45
    • 84890481673 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Empirical likelihood ratio test with distribution function constraints
    • LiuY,TewfkA(2013) Empirical likelihood ratio test with distribution function constraints. IEEETransactions on Signal Processing 61(18):4463-4472. https://doi.org/10.1109/icassp.2013.6638886.
    • (2013) IEEETransactions on Signal Processing , vol.61 , Issue.18 , pp. 4463-4472
    • Liu, Y1    Tewfk, A2
  • 46
    • 85092869829 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evenly sensitive KS-type inference on distributions: new computational, Bayesian,andtwo-sample contributions
    • GoldmanM, KaplanDM(2015)Evenly sensitive KS-type inference on distributions: new computational, Bayesian,andtwo-sample contributions.Universityof California-SanDiegoWorkingPaper. http://econweb.ucsd.edu/mrgoldman/KG2013.pdf.
    • (2015) Universityof California-SanDiegoWorkingPaper
    • Goldman, M1    Kaplan, DM2
  • 47
    • 0041819875 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatialvariationof refractiveindexina pane of foat glass
    • BennettRL,KimND,CurranJM, CoulsonSA,NewtonAWN(2003)Spatialvariationof refractiveindexina pane of foat glass. Science&Justice 43(2):71-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1355-0306(03)71746-8.
    • (2003) Science&Justice , vol.43 , Issue.2 , pp. 71-76
    • Bennett, RL1    Kim, ND2    Curran, JM3    Coulson, SA4    NewtonAWN5
  • 50
    • 84892335782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (Birkhäuser, Basel, Switzerland)
    • GrätzerG(2011) Lattice Theory:Foundation (Birkhäuser, Basel, Switzerland). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-0018-1.
    • (2011) Lattice Theory:Foundation
    • Grätzer, G1
  • 51
    • 85119519672 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Master of Engineering Report, Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
    • Jadhav SN(2011) Generating, Classifying and Indexing Large ScaleFingerprints. Master of Engineering Report, Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India.
    • (2011) Generating, Classifying and Indexing Large ScaleFingerprints
    • Jadhav, SN1
  • 53
    • 67650890638 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • JCGM Joint Committee for Guidesin Metrology, International BureauofWeights and Measures (BIPM),Sèvres, France, 2008; BIPM, IEC, IFCC, ILAC, ISO, IUPAC, IUPAP and OIML, JCGM 100:2008, GUM 1995 with minor corrections
    • JCGM (2008) Evaluation of Measurement Data-Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. Joint Committee for Guidesin Metrology, International BureauofWeights and Measures (BIPM),Sèvres, France, 2008; BIPM, IEC, IFCC, ILAC, ISO, IUPAC, IUPAP and OIML, JCGM 100:2008, GUM 1995 with minor corrections. http://www.bipm.org/en/publications/guides/gum.html.
    • (2008) Evaluation of Measurement Data-Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement
  • 55
    • 0005288735 scopus 로고
    • Departmentof Electrical Engineering, Engineering Research Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI. Electronic Defense GroupTechnical Report 13
    • PetersonWW, BirdsallTG (1953) The Theoryof Signal Detectability -.PartI. General Theory. Departmentof Electrical Engineering, Engineering Research Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI. Electronic Defense GroupTechnical Report 13. http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/7068.
    • (1953) The Theoryof Signal Detectability -.PartI. General Theory
    • Peterson, WW1    Birdsall, TG2
  • 57
    • 0003407830 scopus 로고
    • (Robert E. Krieger Publishing Co., Huntington, NY), a reprint with corrections of the original 1966 edition
    • Green DM, SwetsJA(1974) Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics (Robert E. Krieger Publishing Co., Huntington, NY), a reprint with corrections of the original 1966 edition.
    • (1974) Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics
    • Green, DM1    Swets, JA2
  • 58
    • 84901833359 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Libertiesand constraintsofthe normative approachtoevaluation and decision in forensic science: A discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions
    • BiedermannA,TaroniF,AitkenCGG (2015) Libertiesand constraintsofthe normative approachtoevaluation and decision in forensic science: A discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions. Law, Probability and Risk 13(2):181-191. https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgu009.
    • (2015) Law, Probability and Risk , vol.13 , Issue.2 , pp. 181-191
    • Biedermann, A1    Taroni, F2    AitkenCGG3
  • 59
    • 85119471144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • eds AnandP, Prasanta,P, ClemensP(Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom)
    • Há jekA(2008) Dutch book arguments. The OxfordHandbook of Rational and Social Choice, eds AnandP, Prasanta,P, ClemensP(Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom). https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199290420.001.0001.
    • (2008) Dutch book arguments. The OxfordHandbook of Rational and Social Choice
    • Há, jekA1
  • 61
    • 85012951179 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Performancestudyofa score-basedlikelihood ratio system for forensic fngermark comparison
    • LeegwaterAJ, DidierM,SjerpsM,VergeerP, AlberinkI(2017) Performancestudyofa score-basedlikelihood ratio system for forensic fngermark comparison. JournalofForensic Sciences62(3):626-640. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.13339.
    • (2017) JournalofForensic Sciences62 , Issue.3 , pp. 626-640
    • Leegwater, AJ1    Didier, M2    Sjerps, M3    Vergeer, P4    Alberink, I5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.