메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 39, Issue 4, 2015, Pages 332-349

Lay Understanding of Forensic Statistics: Evaluation of Random Match Probabilities, Likelihood Ratios, and Verbal Equivalents

Author keywords

Bayesian models; evidence; forensic science; jury decision making; probability

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; EXPERT WITNESS; FORENSIC SCIENCE; HUMAN; LEGISLATION AND JURISPRUDENCE; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS;

EID: 84937073376     PISSN: 01477307     EISSN: 1573661X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000134     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (64)

References (56)
  • 1
    • 69449098011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Standards for the formulation of evaluative forensic science expert opinion
    • Association of Forensic Science Providers.
    • Association of Forensic Science Providers. (2009). Standards for the formulation of evaluative forensic science expert opinion. Science & Justice, 49, 161-164. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1016/j. scijus. 2009. 07. 004
    • (2009) Science & Justice , vol.49 , pp. 161-164
  • 2
    • 21844488806 scopus 로고
    • The prosecutor's fallacy and DNA evidence
    • October
    • Balding, D. J., & Donnelly, P. (1994, October). The prosecutor's fallacy and DNA evidence. Criminal Law Review, 711-721.
    • (1994) Criminal Law Review , pp. 711-721
    • Balding, D.J.1    Donnelly, P.2
  • 4
    • 33745967855 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A framework for Interpreting Evidence
    • J. Buckleton, C. M. Triggs, & S. J. Walsh (Eds.), Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
    • Buckleton, J. (2005). A framework for Interpreting Evidence. In J. Buckleton, C. M. Triggs, & S. J. Walsh (Eds.), Forensic DNA evidence interpretation (pp. 27-63). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
    • (2005) Forensic DNA Evidence Interpretation , pp. 27-63
    • Buckleton, J.1
  • 5
    • 84901827892 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individualization is dead, long live individualization! Reforms of reporting practices for fingerprint analysis in the United States
    • Cole, S. A. (2014). Individualization is dead, long live individualization! Reforms of reporting practices for fingerprint analysis in the United States. Law Probability and Risk, 13, 117-150. http://dx. doi. org/ 10. 1093/lpr/mgt014
    • (2014) Law Probability and Risk , vol.13 , pp. 117-150
    • Cole, S.A.1
  • 6
    • 0031847738 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model for case assessment and interpretation
    • Cook, R., Evett, I. W., Jackson, G., Jones, P. J., & Lambert, J. A. (1998). A model for case assessment and interpretation. Science & Justice, 38, 151-156. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1016/S1355-0306(98)72099-4
    • (1998) Science & Justice , vol.38 , pp. 151-156
    • Cook, R.1    Evett, I.W.2    Jackson, G.3    Jones, P.J.4    Lambert, J.A.5
  • 7
    • 84855957239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understanding of forensic expert reports by judges, defense lawyers and forensic professionals
    • de Keijser, J., & Elffers, H. (2012). Understanding of forensic expert reports by judges, defense lawyers and forensic professionals. Psychology, Crime & Law, 18, 191-207. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1080/ 10683161003736744
    • (2012) Psychology, Crime & Law , vol.18 , pp. 191-207
    • De Keijser, J.1    Elffers, H.2
  • 8
    • 0029047122 scopus 로고
    • Avoiding the transposed conditional
    • Evett, I. W. (1995). Avoiding the transposed conditional. Science & Justice, 35, 127-131. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1016/S1355-0306(95)72645-4
    • (1995) Science & Justice , vol.35 , pp. 127-131
    • Evett, I.W.1
  • 9
    • 0031821209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards a uniform framework for reporting opinions in forensic science casework
    • Evett, I. W. (1998). Towards a uniform framework for reporting opinions in forensic science casework. Science & Justice, 38, 198-202. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1016/S1355-0306(98)72105-7
    • (1998) Science & Justice , vol.38 , pp. 198-202
    • Evett, I.W.1
  • 10
    • 0023860357 scopus 로고
    • Bayes' theorem in the trial process: Instructing jurors on the value of statistical evidence
    • Faigman, S., & Baglioni, A. (1988). Bayes' theorem in the trial process: Instructing jurors on the value of statistical evidence. Law and Human Behavior, 12, 1-17. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1007/BF01064271
    • (1988) Law and Human Behavior , vol.12 , pp. 1-17
    • Faigman, S.1    Baglioni, A.2
  • 11
    • 11944267218 scopus 로고
    • How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats
    • Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684-704. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1037/0033-295X. 102. 4. 684
    • (1995) Psychological Review , vol.102 , pp. 684-704
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2
  • 12
    • 0010243673 scopus 로고
    • Jurors' comprehension and assessment of probabilistic evidence
    • Goodman, J. (1992). Jurors' comprehension and assessment of probabilistic evidence. The American Journal of Trial Advocacy, 16, 361.
    • (1992) The American Journal of Trial Advocacy , vol.16 , pp. 361
    • Goodman, J.1
  • 15
    • 0038832589 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bidirectional reasoning in decision making by constraint satisfaction
    • Holyoak, K. J., & Simon, D. (1999). Bidirectional reasoning in decision making by constraint satisfaction. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 128, 3-31. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1037/0096-3445. 128. 1. 3
    • (1999) Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , vol.128 , pp. 3-31
    • Holyoak, K.J.1    Simon, D.2
  • 17
    • 49649138413 scopus 로고
    • Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
    • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3
    • (1972) Cognitive Psychology , vol.3 , pp. 430-454
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 18
    • 57649194995 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistics in the jury box: How jurors respond to mitochondrial DNA match probabilities
    • Kaye, D. H., Hans, V. P., Dann, M. B., Farley, E., & Albertson, S. (2007). Statistics in the jury box: How jurors respond to mitochondrial DNA match probabilities. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 4, 797-834. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1111/j. 1740-1461. 2007. 00107. x
    • (2007) Journal of Empirical Legal Studies , vol.4 , pp. 797-834
    • Kaye, D.H.1    Hans, V.P.2    Dann, M.B.3    Farley, E.4    Albertson, S.5
  • 20
    • 0012457829 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reference guide on DNA evidence
    • J. Cecil (Ed.), Washington, DC: Federal Judicial Center
    • Kaye, D. H., & Sensabaugh, G. F. (2011). Reference guide on DNA evidence. In J. Cecil (Ed.), Reference manual on scientific evidence (pp. 485-576). Washington, DC: Federal Judicial Center.
    • (2011) Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence , pp. 485-576
    • Kaye, D.H.1    Sensabaugh, G.F.2
  • 21
    • 0001959583 scopus 로고
    • Error and exaggeration in the presentation of DNA evidence at trial
    • Koehler, J. J. (1993). Error and exaggeration in the presentation of DNA evidence at trial. Jurimetrics Journal, 34, 21-39.
    • (1993) Jurimetrics Journal , vol.34 , pp. 21-39
    • Koehler, J.J.1
  • 22
    • 0035487641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When are people persuaded by DNA match statistics
    • Koehler, J. J. (2001). When are people persuaded by DNA match statistics? Law and Human Behavior, 25, 493-513. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1023/A: 1012892815916
    • (2001) Law and Human Behavior , vol.25 , pp. 493-513
    • Koehler, J.J.1
  • 23
    • 0001270227 scopus 로고
    • The random match probability (RMP) in DNA evidence: Irrelevant and prejudicial
    • Koehler, J. J., Chia, A., & Lindsey, S. (1995). The random match probability (RMP) in DNA evidence: Irrelevant and prejudicial? Jurimetrics Journal, 35, 201.
    • (1995) Jurimetrics Journal , vol.35 , pp. 201
    • Koehler, J.J.1    Chia, A.2    Lindsey, S.3
  • 24
    • 4043149358 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thinking about low-probability events. An Exemplar-Cuing theory
    • Koehler, J. J., & Macchi, L. (2004). Thinking about low-probability events. An Exemplar-Cuing theory. Psychological Science, 15, 540-546. http:// dx. doi. org/10. 1111/j. 0956-7976. 2004. 00716. x
    • (2004) Psychological Science , vol.15 , pp. 540-546
    • Koehler, J.J.1    Macchi, L.2
  • 25
    • 79954991558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individualization claims in forensic science: Still unwarranted
    • Koehler, J., & Saks, M. (2010). Individualization claims in forensic science: Still unwarranted. Brooklyn Law Review, 75, 1187.
    • (2010) Brooklyn Law Review , vol.75 , pp. 1187
    • Koehler, J.1    Saks, M.2
  • 26
    • 0012464729 scopus 로고
    • Modeling relevance
    • Lempert, R. O. (1977). Modeling relevance. Michigan Law Review, 75, 1021-1057. http://dx. doi. org/10. 2307/1288024
    • (1977) Michigan Law Review , vol.75 , pp. 1021-1057
    • Lempert, R.O.1
  • 27
    • 50949104936 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gold vs platinum: Do jurors recognize the superiority and limitations of DNA evidence compared to other types of forensic evidence
    • Lieberman, J., Carrell, C., Miethe, T., & Krauss, D. (2008). Gold vs. platinum: Do jurors recognize the superiority and limitations of DNA evidence compared to other types of forensic evidence? Psychology Public Policy and Law, 14, 27-62. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1037/1076-8971. 14. 1. 27
    • (2008) Psychology Public Policy and Law , vol.14 , pp. 27-62
    • Lieberman, J.1    Carrell, C.2    Miethe, T.3    Krauss, D.4
  • 29
    • 84899836403 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the interpretation of likelihood ratios in forensic science evidence: Presentation formats and the weak evidence effect
    • Martire, K. A., Kemp, R. I., Sayle, M., & Newell, B. R. (2014). On the interpretation of likelihood ratios in forensic science evidence: Presentation formats and the weak evidence effect. Forensic Science International, 240, 61-68. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1016/j. forsciint. 2014. 04. 005
    • (2014) Forensic Science International , vol.240 , pp. 61-68
    • Martire, K.A.1    Kemp, R.I.2    Sayle, M.3    Newell, B.R.4
  • 30
    • 84885450103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The expression and interpretation of uncertain forensic science evidence: Verbal equivalence, evidence strength, and the weak evidence effect
    • Martire, K. A., Kemp, R. I., Watkins, I., Sayle, M. A., & Newell, B. R. (2013). The expression and interpretation of uncertain forensic science evidence: Verbal equivalence, evidence strength, and the weak evidence effect. Law and Human Behavior, 37, 197-207. http://dx. doi. org/ 10. 1037/lhb0000027
    • (2013) Law and Human Behavior , vol.37 , pp. 197-207
    • Martire, K.A.1    Kemp, R.I.2    Watkins, I.3    Sayle, M.A.4    Newell, B.R.5
  • 31
    • 49549090850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Communicating opinion evidence in the forensic identification sciences: Accuracy and impact
    • McQuiston-Surrett, D., & Saks, M. J. (2008). Communicating opinion evidence in the forensic identification sciences: Accuracy and impact. The Hastings Law Journal, 59, 1159-1190.
    • (2008) The Hastings Law Journal , vol.59 , pp. 1159-1190
    • McQuiston-Surrett, D.1    Saks, M.J.2
  • 32
    • 70350009994 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The testimony of forensic identification science: What expert witnesses say and what factfinders hear
    • McQuiston-Surrett, D., & Saks, M. J. (2009). The testimony of forensic identification science: What expert witnesses say and what factfinders hear. Law and Human Behavior, 33, 436-453. http://dx. doi. org/ 10. 1007/s10979-008-9169-1
    • (2009) Law and Human Behavior , vol.33 , pp. 436-453
    • McQuiston-Surrett, D.1    Saks, M.J.2
  • 33
    • 84871269854 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The likelihood-ratio framework and forensic evidence in court: A response to R v T
    • Morrison, G. S. (2011). The likelihood-ratio framework and forensic evidence in court: A response to R v T. International Journal of Evidence and Proof, 15, 1-29.
    • (2011) International Journal of Evidence and Proof , vol.15 , pp. 1-29
    • Morrison, G.S.1
  • 34
    • 84871307058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understanding potential errors and fallacies in forensic DNA statistics: An amicus brief in McDaniel v. Brown
    • Murphy, E., & Thompson, W. C. (2010). Understanding potential errors and fallacies in forensic DNA statistics: An amicus brief in McDaniel v. Brown. Criminal Law Bulletin, 46, 709-757.
    • (2010) Criminal Law Bulletin , vol.46 , pp. 709-757
    • Murphy, E.1    Thompson, W.C.2
  • 35
    • 26944445316 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An empirical assessment of presentation formats for trace evidence with a relatively large and quantifiable random match probability
    • Nance, D. A., & Morris, S. B. (2002). An empirical assessment of presentation formats for trace evidence with a relatively large and quantifiable random match probability. Jurimetrics Journal, 42, 403-438.
    • (2002) Jurimetrics Journal , vol.42 , pp. 403-438
    • Nance, D.A.1    Morris, S.B.2
  • 36
    • 26944450538 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Juror understanding of DNA evidence: An empirical assessment of presentation formats for trace evidence with a relatively small random match probability
    • Nance, D. A., & Morris, S. B. (2005). Juror understanding of DNA evidence: An empirical assessment of presentation formats for trace evidence with a relatively small random match probability. The Journal of Legal Studies, 34, 395-444. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1086/428020
    • (2005) The Journal of Legal Studies , vol.34 , pp. 395-444
    • Nance, D.A.1    Morris, S.B.2
  • 38
    • 0002030516 scopus 로고
    • Explaining the evidence: Tests of the Story Model for juror decision making
    • Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1992). Explaining the evidence: Tests of the Story Model for juror decision making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 189-206. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1037/0022-3514. 62. 2. 189
    • (1992) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.62 , pp. 189-206
    • Pennington, N.1    Hastie, R.2
  • 39
    • 84881112823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Parallel constraint satisfaction as a mechanism for cognitive consistency
    • B. Gawronsky & F. Strack (Eds.), New York, NY: Guilford Press.
    • Read, S. J., & Simon, D. (2012). Parallel constraint satisfaction as a mechanism for cognitive consistency. In B. Gawronsky & F. Strack (Eds.), Cognitive consistency: A fundamental principle in social cognition (pp. 66-87). New York, NY: Guilford Press.
    • (2012) Cognitive Consistency: A Fundamental Principle in Social Cognition , pp. 66-87
    • Read, S.J.1    Simon, D.2
  • 42
    • 79959731195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extending the confusion about Bayes
    • Robertson, B., Vignaux, G. A., & Berger, C. E. H. (2011). Extending the confusion about Bayes. The Modern Law Review, 74, 444-455. http:// dx. doi. org/10. 1111/j. 1468-2230. 2011. 00857. x
    • (2011) The Modern Law Review , vol.74 , pp. 444-455
    • Robertson, B.1    Vignaux, G.A.2    Berger, C.E.H.3
  • 43
    • 0032927882 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Juror reactions to DNA evidence: Errors and expectancies
    • Schklar, J., & Diamond, S. S. (1999). Juror reactions to DNA evidence: Errors and expectancies. Law and Human Behavior, 23, 159-184. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1023/A:1022368801333
    • (1999) Law and Human Behavior , vol.23 , pp. 159-184
    • Schklar, J.1    Diamond, S.S.2
  • 45
    • 84925981505 scopus 로고
    • Formal and empirical research on cascaded inference in jurisprudence: A summary
    • Schum, D., & Martin, A. (1982). Formal and empirical research on cascaded inference in jurisprudence: A summary. Law & Society Review, 17, 105-142. http://dx. doi. org/10. 2307/3053534
    • (1982) Law & Society Review , vol.17 , pp. 105-142
    • Schum, D.1    Martin, A.2
  • 46
  • 48
    • 84935416033 scopus 로고
    • Are juries competent to evaluate statistical evidence
    • Thompson, W. C. (1989). Are juries competent to evaluate statistical evidence? Law and Contemporary Problems, 52, 9-41. http://dx. doi. org/10. 2307/1191906
    • (1989) Law and Contemporary Problems , vol.52 , pp. 9-41
    • Thompson, W.C.1
  • 49
    • 84871298706 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discussion paper: Hard cases make bad law: Reactions to R v. T
    • Thompson, W. C. (2012). Discussion paper: Hard cases make bad law: Reactions to R v. T. Law Probability and Risk, 11, 347-359. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1093/lpr/mgs020
    • (2012) Law Probability and Risk , vol.11 , pp. 347-359
    • Thompson, W.C.1
  • 50
    • 84882443629 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forensic DNA evidence: The myth of infallibility
    • S. Krimsky & J. Gruber (Eds.), Boston, MA: Harvard University Press.
    • Thompson, W. C. (2013). Forensic DNA evidence: The myth of infallibility. In S. Krimsky & J. Gruber (Eds.), Genetic explanations: Sense and nonsense (pp. 227-255). Boston, MA: Harvard University Press.
    • (2013) Genetic Explanations: Sense and Nonsense , pp. 227-255
    • Thompson, W.C.1
  • 51
    • 34548594459 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Psychological aspects of forensic identification evidence
    • M. Costanzo, D. Krauss, & K. Pezdek (Eds.), Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
    • Thompson, W. C., & Cole, S. A. (2007). Psychological aspects of forensic identification evidence. In M. Costanzo, D. Krauss, & K. Pezdek (Eds.), Expert psychological testimony for the courts (pp. 31-68). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
    • (2007) Expert Psychological Testimony for the Courts , pp. 31-68
    • Thompson, W.C.1    Cole, S.A.2
  • 52
    • 84876704054 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do jurors give appropriate weight to forensic identification evidence
    • Thompson, W. C., Kaasa, S. O., & Peterson, T. (2013). Do jurors give appropriate weight to forensic identification evidence? Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 10, 359-397. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1111/jels. 12013
    • (2013) Journal of Empirical Legal Studies , vol.10 , pp. 359-397
    • Thompson, W.C.1    Kaasa, S.O.2    Peterson, T.3
  • 53
    • 0000312731 scopus 로고
    • Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials: The Prosecutor's Fallacy and the Defense Attorney's Fallacy
    • Thompson, W. C., & Schumann, E. (1987). Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials: The Prosecutor's Fallacy and the Defense Attorney's Fallacy. Law and Human Behavior, 11, 167-187. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1007/BF01044641
    • (1987) Law and Human Behavior , vol.11 , pp. 167-187
    • Thompson, W.C.1    Schumann, E.2
  • 54
    • 0037227664 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How the probability of a false positive affects the value of DNA evidence
    • Thompson, W. C., Taroni, F., & Aitken, C. G. (2003). How the probability of a false positive affects the value of DNA evidence. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 48, 47-54.
    • (2003) Journal of Forensic Sciences , vol.48 , pp. 47-54
    • Thompson, W.C.1    Taroni, F.2    Aitken, C.G.3
  • 55
    • 0016264378 scopus 로고
    • Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124.
    • (1974) Science , vol.185 , pp. 1124
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 56
    • 0002554835 scopus 로고
    • Evidential impact of base rates
    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Evidential impact of base rates. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 153-160). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1017/CBO9780511809477. 011
    • (1982) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , pp. 153-160
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.