Attribution of extreme events in Arctic Sea ice extent

Journal of Climate

Volumn 30, Issue 2, 2017, Pages 553-571

  Kirchmeier Young, Megan C ^a   Zwiers, Francis W ^a   Gillett, Nathan P ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA   (Canada)

^b ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic effects; Climate change; Extreme events; Sea ice; Statistics

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; STATISTICS;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECTS; ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE; ARCTIC SEA ICE; DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTIONS; EXTREME EVENTS; HUMAN INFLUENCES; MODEL RESPONSE; SINGLE MODELS;

SEA ICE;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; EXTREME EVENT; SEA ICE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

ARCTIC OCEAN;

EID: 85008690083     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Allen, M. R., and S. F. B. Tett, 1999: Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Climate Dyn., 15, 419-434, doi:10.1007/s003820050291.
2. Allen, M. R., and P. A. Stott, 2003: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: Theory. Climate Dyn., 21, 477-491, doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9.
3. Arora, V. K., and Coauthors, 2011: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805, doi:10.1029/2010GL046270.
4. Bindoff, N. L., and Coauthors, 2013: Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 867-952. [Available online at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf.]
5. Cannon, A. J., 2015: Selecting GCM scenarios that span the range of changes in a multimodel ensemble: Application to CMIP5 climate extremes indices. J. Climate, 28, 1260-1267, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00636.1.
6. Christiansen, B., 2015: The role of the selection problem and non-Gaussianity in attribution of single events to climate change. J. Climate, 28, 9873-9891, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0318.1.
7. Christidis, N., P. A. Stott, G. S. Jones, H. Shiogama, T. Nozawa, and J. Luterbacher, 2012: Human activity and anomalously warm seasons in Europe. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 225-239, doi:10.1002/joc.2262.
8. Christidis, N., P. A. Stott, A. A. Scaife, A. Arribas, G. S. Jones, D. Copsey, J. R. Knight, and W. J. Tennant, 2013: A new HadGEM3-A-based system for attribution of weather-and climate-related extreme events. J. Climate, 26, 2756-2783, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00169.1.
9. Christidis, N., G. S. Jones, and P. A. Stott, 2015: Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave. Nat. Climate Change, 5, 46-50, doi:10.1038/nclimate2468.
10. Cody, W. J., 1993: Algorithm 715: SPECFUN-A portable FORTRAN package of special function routines and test drivers. ACM Trans. Math. Software, 19, 22-32, doi:10.1145/151271.151273.
11. Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1029-1136. [Available online at http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf.]
12. Comiso, J. C., C. L. Parkinson, R. Gersten, and L. Stock, 2008: Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L01703, doi:10.1029/2007GL031972.
13. Day, J. J., J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, and A. Abe-Ouchi, 2012: Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 034011, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034011.
14. Dufresne, J.-L., and Coauthors, 2013: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: From CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dyn., 40, 2123-2165, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1.
15. Fetterer, F., K. Knowles, W. Meier, and M. Savoie, 2002: Sea Ice Index. National Snow and Ice Data Center, accessed 16 September 2015, doi:10.7265/N5QJ7F7W.
16. Flato, G., and Coauthors, 2013: Evaluation of climate models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 741-866, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020.
17. Gillett, N. P., M. F. Wehner, S. F. B. Tett, and A. J. Weaver, 2004: Testing the linearity of the response to combined greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L14201, doi:10.1029/2004GL020111.
18. Gillett, N. P., D. A. Stone, P. A. Stott, T. Nozawa, A. Y. Karpechko, G. C. Hegerl, M. F. Wehner, and P. D. Jones, 2008: Attribution of polar warming to human influence. Nat. Geosci., 1, 750-754, doi:10.1038/ngeo338.
19. Goldstein, M., and J. Rougier, 2009: Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems. J. Stat. Plann. Inference, 139, 1221-1239, doi:10.1016/j.jspi.2008.07.019.
20. Gregory, J. M., P. A. Stott, D. J. Cresswell, N. A. Rayner, C. Gordon, and D. M. H. Sexton, 2002: Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2175, doi:10.1029/2001GL014575.
21. Guemas, V., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Germe, M. Chevallier, and D. Salas y Mélia, 2013: Discriminating between sea ice memory, the August 2012 extreme storm, and prevailing warm conditions [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, S20-S22.
22. Hannart, A., J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, and M. Ghil, 2016: Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 99-110, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1.
23. Hartmann, D. L., and Coauthors, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and surface. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 159-254. [Available online at http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf.]
24. Hegerl, G. C., and F. Zwiers, 2011: Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 2, 570-591, doi:10.1002/wcc.121.
25. Hegerl, G. C., and Coauthors, 2010: Good practice guidance paper on detection and attribution related to anthropogenic climate change. Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., 9 pp. [Available online at http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/meetings/EMs/IPCC_D%26A_GoodPracticeGuidancePaper.pdf.]
26. Herring, S., M. Hoerling, J. Kossin, T. Peterson, and P. Stott, Eds., 2015: Explaining extreme events of 2014 from a climate perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (Suppl.), S1-S172, doi:10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1.
27. Hulme, M., 2014: Attributing weather extremes to 'climate change': A review. Prog. Phys. Geogr., 38, 499-511, doi:10.1177/0309133314538644.
28. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Cambridge University Press, 688 pp.
29. Jahn, A., and Coauthors, 2012: Late-twentieth-century simulation of Arctic sea ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 1431-1452, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00201.1.
30. Kay, J. E., M. M. Holland, and A. Jahn, 2011: Inter-annual to multi-decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15708, doi:10.1029/2011GL048008.
31. Kay, J. E., and Coauthors, 2015: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 1333-1349, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1.
32. Lutz, A., H. ter Maat, H. Biemans, A. Shrestha, P. Wester, and W. Immerzeel, 2016: Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: An advanced envelope-based selection approach. Int. J. Climatol., 36, 3988-4005, doi:10.1002/joc.4608.
33. Massonnet, F., T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, C. M. Bitz, G. Philippon-Berthier, M. M. Holland, and P. Y. Barriat, 2012: Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice. Cryosphere, 6, 1383-1394, doi:10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012.
34. Min, S. K., X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and T. Agnew, 2008: Human influence on Arctic sea ice detectable from early 1990s onwards. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L21701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035725.
35. Mitchell, J. F. B., D. J. Karoly, G. C. Hegerl, F. W. Zwiers, M. R. Allen, and J. Marengo, 2001: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, 697-738.
36. Najafi, M. R., F. W. Zwiers, and N. P. Gillett, 2015: Attribution of Arctic temperature change to greenhouse-gas and aerosol influences. Nat. Climate Change, 5, 246-249, doi:10.1038/nclimate2524.
37. NASEM, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. The National Academies Press, 186 pp., doi:10.17226/21852.
38. Notz, D., and J. Marotzke, 2012: Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08502, doi:10.1029/2012GL051094.
39. Otto, F. E. L., N. Massey, G. J. Van Oldenborgh, R. G. Jones, and M. R. Allen, 2012: Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04702, doi:10.1029/2011GL050422.
40. Peterson, T. C., M. P. Hoerling, P. A. Stott, and S. C. Herring, Eds., 2013: Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (Suppl.), S1-S74, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1.
41. Ribes, A., S. Planton, and L. Terray, 2013: Application of regularised optimal fingerprinting to attribution. Part I: Method, properties and idealised analysis. Climate Dyn., 41, 2817-2836, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1735-7.
42. Rougier, J., M. Goldstein, and L. House, 2013: Second-order exchangeability analysis for multimodel ensembles. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 108, 852-863, doi:10.1080/01621459.2013.802963.
43. Sato, M., J. E. Hansen, M. P. McCormick, and J. B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22 987-22 994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553.
44. Serreze, M. C., and R. G. Barry, 2011: Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis. Global Planet. Change, 77, 85-96, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004.
45. Serreze, M. C., M. M. Holland, and J. Stroeve, 2007: Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea-ice cover. Science, 315, 1533-1536, doi:10.1126/science.1139426.
46. Shepherd, T. G., 2016: A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 2, 28-38, doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y.
47. Shu, Q., Z. Song, and F. Qiao, 2015: Assessment of sea ice simulations in the CMIP5 models. Cryosphere, 9, 399-409, doi:10.5194/tc-9-399-2015.
48. Stone, D. A., and M. R. Allen, 2005: The end-to-end attribution problem: From emissions to impacts. Climatic Change, 71, 303-318, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-6778-2.
49. Stott, P. A., D. A. Stone, and M. R. Allen, 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-614, doi:10.1038/nature03089.
50. Stott, P. A., N. P. Gillett, G. C. Hegerl, D. J. Karoly, D. A. Stone, X. Zhang, and F. Zwiers, 2010: Detection and attribution of climate change: A regional perspective. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 1, 192-211, doi:10.1002/wcc.34.
51. Stott, P. A., and Coauthors, 2016: Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 7, 23-41, doi:10.1002/wcc.380.
52. Stroeve, J., M. M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze, 2007: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.
53. Stroeve, J., M. Serreze, S. Drobot, S. Gearheard, M. Holland, J. Maslanik, W. Meier, and T. Scambos, 2008: Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 89, 13-14, doi:10.1029/2008EO020001.
54. Sun, Y., X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, L. Song, H. Wan, T. Hu, and H. Yin, 2014: Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in eastern China. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 1082-1085, doi:10.1038/nclimate2410.
55. Swart, N. C., J. C. Fyfe, E. Hawkins, J. E. Kay, and A. Jahn, 2015: Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends. Nat. Climate Change, 5, 86-89, doi:10.1038/nclimate2483.
56. Tebaldi, C., and R. Knutti, 2007: The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, A365, 2053-2075, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2076.
57. Tett, S., P. Stott, M. Allen, W. Ingram, and J. Mitchell, 1999: Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth's surface. Nature, 399, 569-572, doi:10.1038/21164.
58. Van Huffel, S., and J. Vandewalle, 1991: The Total Least Squares Problem: Computational Aspects and Analysis. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 300 pp.
59. van Vuuren, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.
60. Vaughan, D., and Coauthors, 2013a: Observations: Cryosphere. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 317-382, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.012.
61. Vaughan, D., and Coauthors, 2013b: Observations: Cryosphere supplementary material. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., 4SM-1-4SM-10. [Available online at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/supplementary/WG1AR5_Ch04SM_FINAL.pdf.]
62. Vinnikov, K. Y., and Coauthors, 1999: Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent. Science, 286, 1934-1937, doi:10.1126/science.286.5446.1934.
63. Zhang, R., 2015: Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 4570-4575, doi:10.1073/pnas.1422296112.
64. Zhang, R., and T. R. Knutson, 2013: The role of global climate change in the extreme low summer Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, S23-S26.