Attribution of polar warming to human influence

Nature Geoscience

Volumn 1, Issue 11, 2008, Pages 750-754

  Gillett, Nathan P ^a   Stone, Dáithí A ^b   Stott, Peter A ^c   Nozawa, Toru ^d   Karpechko, Alexey Yu ^a   Hegerl, Gabriele C ^e   Wehner, Michael F ^f   Jones, Philip D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^d NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^e UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^f LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 65349146469     PISSN: 17520894     EISSN: 17520908     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo338     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Meehl, G. A. et al. in The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
2. Symon, C., Arris, L. & Heal, B. (eds) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2004).
3. Johannessen, O. M. et al. Arctic climate change: Observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability. Tellus A 56, 328-341 (2004).
4. Wang, M. Y. et al. Intrinsic versus forced variation in coupled climate model simulations over the Arctic during the twentieth century. J. Clim. 20, 1093-1107 (2007).
5. Polyakov, I. V. et al. Variability and trends of air temperature and pressure in the maritime Arctic, 1875-2000. J. Clim. 16, 2067-2077 (2003).
6. Overland, J. et al. The Arctic and Antarctic: Two faces of climate change. Eos Trans. AGU 89, 177-178 (2008).
7. Turner, J. et al. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 279-294 (2005).
8. Hegerl, G. C. et al. in The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
9. Brohan, P. et al. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D12106 (2006).
10. Jones, P. D. et al. Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev. Geophys. 37, 173-199 (1999).
11. Lemke, P. et al. in The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
12. Jones, P. D. Antarctic temperatures over the present century - a study of the early expedition record. J. Clim. 3, 1193-1203 (1990).
13. Trenberth, K. E. et al. in The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
14. Connolley, W. M. & Bracegirdle, T. J. An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L22505 (2007).
15. Gleckler, P. J., Taylor, K. E. & Doutriaux, C. Performance metrics for climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D06104 (2008).
16. Monaghan, A. J., Bromwich, D. H., Chapman, W. & Comiso, J. C. Recent variability and trends of Antarctic near-surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D04105 (2008).
17. Monaghan, A. J., Bromwich, D. H. & Schneider, D. P. Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L07502 (2008).
18. Stott, P. A. &Tett, S. F. B. Scale-dependent detection of climate change. J. Clim. 11,3282-3294 (1998).
19. Marshall, G. J., Orr, A., van Lipzig, N. P. M. & King, J. C. The impact of a changing Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on Antarctic Peninsula summer temperatures. J. Clim. 19, 5388-5404 (2006).
20. Chapman, W. L. & Walsh, J. E. A synthesis of Antarctic temperatures. J. Clim. 20, 4096-4117 (2007).
21. Thompson, D. W. J. & Solomon, S. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296, 895-899 (2002).
22. Marshall, G. J. Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Clim. 16, 4134-4143 (2003).
23. Stott, P. A. et al. External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Science 290, 2133-2137 (2000).
24. Allen, M. R. & Stott, P. A. Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory. Clim. Dyn. 21, 477-491 (2003).
25. Gillett, N. P. et al. Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1970 (2002).
26. Allen, M. R. & Tett, S. F. B. Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Clim. Dyn. 15, 419-434 (1999).
27. Przybylak, R. Temporal and spatial variation of surface air temperature over the period of instrumental observations in the Arctic. Int. J. Climatol. 20, 587-614 (2000).
28. Przybylak, R. Changes in seasonal and annual high-frequency air temperature variability in the Arctic from 1951 to 1990. Int. J. Climatol. 22, 1017-1032 (2002).
29. Polyakov, I. V. et al. Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1878 (2002).
30. Stroeve, J. et al. Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L09501 (2007).