Mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice extent

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 112, Issue 15, 2015, Pages 4570-4575

  Zhang, Rong ^a  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Arctic sea ice; Internal variability; Ocean heat transport

Indexed keywords

ARCTIC; ARTICLE; ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATE CHANGE; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; GREENHOUSE GAS; HEAT; INTERNAL VARIABILITY; MULTIPLE REGRESSION; PACIFIC OCEAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEA ICE; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUMMER;

EID: 84928137368     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422296112     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Polyakov IV, et al. (2003) Variability and trends of air temperature and pressure in the maritime Arctic, 1875-2000. J Clim 16(12):2067-2077.
2. Semenov VA, Bengtsson L (2003) Modes of the wintertime Arctic temperature variability. Geophys Res Lett 30(15):1781.
3. Bengtsson L, Semenov VA, Johannessen OM (2004) The early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic - A possible mechanism. J Clim 17(20):4045-4057.
4. Comiso JC, Parkinson CL, Gersten R, Stock L (2008) Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover. Geophys Res Lett 35(1):L01703.
5. Serreze MC, Barrett AP, Stroeve JC, Kindig DN, Holland MM (2009) The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. Cryosphere 3:11-19.
6. Screen JA, Simmonds I (2010) The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature 464(7293):1334-1337.
7. Stroeve JC, et al. (2012) Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations. Geophys Res Lett 39(16):L16502.
8. Massonnet F, et al. (2012) Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice. Cryosphere 6:1383-1394.
9. Overland JE, Wang M (2013) When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?Geophys Res Lett 40(10):2097-2101.
10. Zhang R, Knutson TR (2013) The role of global climate change in the extreme low summer Arctic sea ice extent in 2012. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94(9):S23-S26.
11. Francis JA, Hunter E (2006) New insight into the disappearing Arctic sea ice. Eos Trans AGU 87(46):509-511.
12. Deser C, Teng H (2008) Recent trends in Arctic sea ice and the evolving role of atmospheric circulation forcing, 1979-2007. Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophysical Monograph Series, eds DeWeaver ET, Bitz CM, Tremblay L-B (Am Geophys Union, Washington, DC), Vol 180, pp 7-26.
13. Steele M, Zhang J, Ermold W (2010) Mechanisms of summertime upper Arctic Ocean warming and the effect on sea ice melt. J Geophys Res 115(C11):C11004.
14. Winton M (2006) Amplified Arctic climate change: What does surface albedo feedback have to do with it? Geophys Res Lett 33(3):L03701.
15. Perovich DK, Richter-Menge JA, Jones KF, Light B (2008) Sunlight, water, and ice: Extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the summer of 2007. Geophys Res Lett 35(11):L11501.
16. Zhang J, Rothrock DA, Steele M (1998) Warming of the Arctic Ocean by a strengthened Atlantic inflow: Model results. Geophys Res Lett 25(10):1745-1748.
17. Polyakov IV, et al. (2010) Arctic Ocean warming contributes to reduced polar ice cap. J Phys Oceanogr 40(12):2743-2756.
18. Alexeev VA, Ivanov VV, Kwok R, Smedsrud LH (2013) North Atlantic warming and declining volume of Arctic sea ice. Cryosphere Discuss 7:245-265.
19. Woodgate RA, Weingartner TJ, Lindsay R (2012) Observed increases in Bering Strait oceanic fluxes from the Pacific to the Arctic from 2001 to 2011 and their impacts on the Arctic Ocean water column. Geophys Res Lett 39(24):L24603.
20. Rigor IG, Wallace JM (2004) Variations in the age of Arctic sea-ice and summer sea-ice extent. Geophys Res Lett 31(9):L09401.
21. Ogi M, Yamazaki K (2010) Trends in the summer Northern Annular Mode and Arctic sea ice. SOLA 6:41-44.
22. Shimada K, et al. (2006) Pacific Ocean inflow: Influence on catastrophic reduction of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 33(8):L08605.
23. Proshutinsky AY, Johnson MA (1997) Two circulation regimes of the wind-driven Arctic Ocean. J Geophys Res 102(C6):12,493-12,514.
24. Wu B, Wang J, Walsh JE (2006) Dipole anomaly in the winter Arctic atmosphere and its association with sea ice motion. J Clim 19(2):210-225.
25. Wang J, et al. (2009) Is the Dipole Anomaly a major driver to record lows in Arctic summer sea ice extent? Geophys Res Lett 36(5):L05706.
26. Overland JE, Wang M (2010) Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus Ser A 62(1):1-9.
27. Overland JE, Francis JA, Hanna E, Wang M (2012) The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett 39(19):L19804.
28. Wettstein JJ, Deser C (2014) Internal variability in projections of twenty-first century Arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. J Clim 27(2):527-550.
29. Deser C, Blackmon ML (1993) Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-1989. J Clim 6(9):1743-1753.
30. Park W, Latif M (2008) Multidecadal and multicentennial variability of the meridional overturning circulation. Geophys Res Lett 35(22):L22703.
31. Mahajan S, Zhang R, Delworth TL (2011) Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic surface air temperature and sea-ice variability. J Clim 24(24):6573-6581.
32. Day JJ, Hargreaves JC, Annan JD, Abe-Ouchi A (2012) Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent. Environ Res Lett 7(3):034011.
33. Miles MW, et al. (2014) A signal of persistent Atlantic multidecadal variability in Arctic sea ice. Geophys Res Lett 41(2):463-469.
34. Zhang R (2007) Anticorrelated multidecadal variations between surface and subsurface tropical North Atlantic. Geophys Res Lett 34(12):L12713.
35. Zhang R (2008) Coherent surface-subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophys Res Lett 35(20):L20705.
36. Delworth TL, et al. (2006) GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J Clim 19(5):643-674.
37. Nakamura N, Oort AH (1988) Atmospheric heat budgets of the polar regions. J Geophys Res 93(D8):9510-9524.
38. Beszczynska-Möller A, Woodgate RA, Lee C, Melling H, and Karcher M (2011) A synthesis of exchanges through the main oceanic gateways to the Arctic Ocean. Oceanography 24(3):82-99.
39. Holland MM, Bitz CM, Tremblay B, Bailey DA (2008) The role of natural versus forced change in future rapid summer Arctic ice loss. Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophysical Monograph Series, eds DeWeaver ET, Bitz CM, Tremblay L-B (Am Geophys Union, Washington, DC), Vol 180, pp 133-150.
40. Kay JE, Holland MM, Jahn A (2011) Inter-annual to multi-decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world. Geophys Res Lett 38(15):L15708.
41. Bjerknes J (1964) Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction, Advances in Geophysics (Academic Press, New York), Vol 10, pp 1-82.
42. Koenigk T, Brodeau L (2014) Ocean heat transport into the Arctic in the twentieth and twenty-first century in EC-Earth. Clim Dyn 42:3101-3120.
43. Shaffrey L, Sutton R (2006) Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model. J Clim 19(7):1167-1181.
44. Van der Swaluw E, Drijfhout SS, Hazeleger W (2007) Bjerknes compensation at high northern latitudes: The ocean forcing the atmosphere. J Clim 20(24):6023-6032.
45. Jungclaus JH, Koenigk T (2010) Low-frequency variability of the Arctic climate: the role of oceanic and atmospheric heat transport variations. Clim Dyn 34(2-3):265-279.
46. Årthun M, Eldevik T, Smedsrud LH, Skagseth Ø, Ingvaldsen RB (2012) Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. J Clim 25(13):4736-4743.
47. Smedsrud LH, et al. (2013) The role of the Barents Sea in the Arctic climate system. Rev Geophys 51(3):415-449.
48. Winton M (2011) Do climate models underestimate the sensitivity of northern hemisphere sea ice cover? J Clim 24(15):3924-3934.
49. Fetterer F, Knowles K, Meier W, Savoie M (2002) Sea Ice Index, 2000-2012 (Natl Snow Ice Data Cent, Boulder, CO) (updated daily).
50. Cavalieri DJ, Parkinson CL, Gloersen P, Zwally H (1996) Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data (updated yearly) (Natl Snow Ice Data Cent, Boulder, CO).
51. Kalnay E, et al. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437-471.
52. Delworth TL, Zeng F (2012) Multicentennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its climatic influence in a 4000 year simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 climate model. Geophys Res Lett 39(13):L13702.