메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 365, Issue 1857, 2007, Pages 2053-2075

The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections

Author keywords

Global climate models; Multi model ensembles; Performance based weighting; Probabilistic projections; Regional climate change; Structural uncertainty

Indexed keywords


EID: 34547177691     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2076     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (1391)

References (68)
  • 1
    • 0034609871 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change
    • doi:10.1038/35036559
    • Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Schnur, R. & Delworth, T. L. 2000 Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 407, 617-620. (doi:10.1038/35036559)
    • (2000) Nature , vol.407 , pp. 617-620
    • Allen, M.R.1    Stott, P.A.2    Mitchell, J.F.B.3    Schnur, R.4    Delworth, T.L.5
  • 2
    • 0034754594 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Objective estimation of the probability distribution for climate sensitivity
    • doi:10.1029/2000JD000259
    • Andronova, N. & Schlesinger, M. E. 2001 Objective estimation of the probability distribution for climate sensitivity. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 22 605-22 612. (doi:10.1029/2000JD000259)
    • (2001) J. Geophys. Res , vol.106
    • Andronova, N.1    Schlesinger, M.E.2
  • 3
    • 3343006936 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity Earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter
    • doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.12.004
    • Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Edwards, N. R. & Marsh, R. 2005a Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity Earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter. Ocean Model. 8, 135-154. (doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.12.004)
    • (2005) Ocean Model , vol.8 , pp. 135-154
    • Annan, J.D.1    Hargreaves, J.C.2    Edwards, N.R.3    Marsh, R.4
  • 5
    • 1642633873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tentative probabilistic temperature scenarios for northern Europe
    • doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870. 2004.00039.x
    • Benestad, R. 2004 Tentative probabilistic temperature scenarios for northern Europe. Tellus A 56, 89-101. (doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870. 2004.00039.x)
    • (2004) Tellus A , vol.56 , pp. 89-101
    • Benestad, R.1
  • 7
    • 33745087448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Response of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and ventilation to increasing carbon dioxide in CCSM3
    • doi:10.1175/JCLI3757.1
    • Bryan, F. O., Danabasoglu, G., Nakashiki, N., Yoshida, Y., Kim, D.-H. & Tsutsui, J. 2006 Response of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and ventilation to increasing carbon dioxide in CCSM3. J. Clim. 19, 2382-2397. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3757.1)
    • (2006) J. Clim , vol.19 , pp. 2382-2397
    • Bryan, F.O.1    Danabasoglu, G.2    Nakashiki, N.3    Yoshida, Y.4    Kim, D.-H.5    Tsutsui, J.6
  • 8
    • 18544386239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe
    • doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00125.x
    • Cantelaube, P. & Terres, J.-M. 2005 Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe. Tellus A 57, 476-487. (doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00125.x)
    • (2005) Tellus A , vol.57 , pp. 476-487
    • Cantelaube, P.1    Terres, J.-M.2
  • 9
    • 33644687141 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0
    • Collins, M., Booth, B. B. B., Harris, G., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H. & Webb, M. J. 2006 Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change, Clim. Dynam. 27, 127-147. (doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0)
    • (2006) Clim. Dynam , vol.27 , pp. 127-147
    • Collins, M.1    Booth, B.B.B.2    Harris, G.3    Murphy, J.M.4    Sexton, D.M.H.5    Webb, M.J.6
  • 10
    • 34547201244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st century California
    • article 4
    • Dettinger, M. 2005 From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st century California. San Francisco Estuary Watershed Sci. 3, article 4.
    • (2005) San Francisco Estuary Watershed Sci , vol.3
    • Dettinger, M.1
  • 11
    • 0345566151 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The skill of multimodel seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0350-4
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Pavan, V. & Stephenson, D. B. 2003 The skill of multimodel seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim. Dynam. 21, 501-514. (doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0350-4)
    • (2003) Clim. Dynam , vol.21 , pp. 501-514
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Pavan, V.2    Stephenson, D.B.3
  • 12
    • 84884550570 scopus 로고
    • The ensemble Kalman filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation
    • doi:10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9
    • Evensen, G. 1993 The ensemble Kalman filter: theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dynam. 53, 343-367. (doi:10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9)
    • (1993) Ocean Dynam , vol.53 , pp. 343-367
    • Evensen, G.1
  • 13
    • 0028193070 scopus 로고
    • Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics
    • doi:10.1029/94JC00572
    • Evensen, G. 1994 Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 10 143-10 162. (doi:10.1029/94JC00572)
    • (1994) J. Geophys. Res , vol.99
    • Evensen, G.1
  • 14
    • 0037016454 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations
    • doi:10.1126/science.1064419
    • Forest, C. E., Stone, P. H., Sokolov, A. P., Allen, M. R. & Webster, M. D. 2002 Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science 295, 113-117. (doi:10.1126/science.1064419)
    • (2002) Science , vol.295 , pp. 113-117
    • Forest, C.E.1    Stone, P.H.2    Sokolov, A.P.3    Allen, M.R.4    Webster, M.D.5
  • 15
    • 33644634932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings
    • doi:10.1029/2005GL023977
    • Forest, C. E., Stone, P. H. & Sokolov, A. P. 2006 Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L01705. (doi:10.1029/2005GL023977)
    • (2006) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.33
    • Forest, C.E.1    Stone, P.H.2    Sokolov, A.P.3
  • 17
    • 34249874205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate Bayesian analysis of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models
    • In press
    • Furrer, R., Sain, S., Nychka, D. & Meehl, G. In press. Multivariate Bayesian analysis of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Environ. Ecol. Stat.
    • Environ. Ecol. Stat
    • Furrer, R.1    Sain, S.2    Nychka, D.3    Meehl, G.4
  • 18
    • 0027085408 scopus 로고
    • AMIP: The atmospheric model intercomparison project
    • doi:10.1175/1520- 0477(1992)073<1962:ATAMIP>2.0.CO;2) 1992
    • Gates, W. L. 1992 AMIP: the atmospheric model intercomparison project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 73, 1962-1970. (doi:10.1175/1520- 0477(1992)073<1962:ATAMIP>2.0.CO;2)
    • (1962) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc , vol.73
    • Gates, W.L.1
  • 19
    • 0000163627 scopus 로고
    • Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2
    • Gent, P. R. & McWilliams, J. C. 1990 Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 20, 150-155. (doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2)
    • (1990) J. Phys. Oceanogr , vol.20 , pp. 150-155
    • Gent, P.R.1    McWilliams, J.C.2
  • 20
    • 0000639584 scopus 로고
    • Parameterizing eddy-induced tracer transports in ocean circulation models
    • doi:10. 1175/1520-0485(1995) 025<0463:PEITTI>2.0.CO;2
    • Gent, P. R., Willebrand, J., McDougall, T. J. & McWilliams, J. C. 1995 Parameterizing eddy-induced tracer transports in ocean circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 25, 463-474. (doi:10. 1175/1520-0485(1995) 025<0463:PEITTI>2.0.CO;2)
    • (1995) J. Phys. Oceanogr , vol.25 , pp. 463-474
    • Gent, P.R.1    Willebrand, J.2    McDougall, T.J.3    McWilliams, J.C.4
  • 22
    • 0034035579 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainties in regional climate change predictions. A regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 GCM
    • doi:10. 1007/PL00013733
    • Giorgi, F. & Francisco, R. 2000 Uncertainties in regional climate change predictions. A regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 GCM. Clim. Dynam. 16, 169-182. (doi:10. 1007/PL00013733)
    • (2000) Clim. Dynam , vol.16 , pp. 169-182
    • Giorgi, F.1    Francisco, R.2
  • 23
    • 0037092719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calculation of average, uncertainty range and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the 'reliability ensemble averaging' (REA) method
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1141:COAURA>2.0.CO;2
    • Giorgi, F. & Mearns, L. 2002 Calculation of average, uncertainty range and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the 'reliability ensemble averaging' (REA) method. J. Clim. 15, 1141-1158. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1141:COAURA>2.0.CO;2)
    • (2002) J. Clim , vol.15 , pp. 1141-1158
    • Giorgi, F.1    Mearns, L.2
  • 24
    • 0348044464 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability of regional climate change calculated using the reliability ensemble average (REA) method
    • doi:10.1029/2003GL017130
    • Giorgi, F. & Mearns, L. 2003 Probability of regional climate change calculated using the reliability ensemble average (REA) method. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1629-1632. (doi:10.1029/2003GL017130)
    • (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.30 , pp. 1629-1632
    • Giorgi, F.1    Mearns, L.2
  • 25
    • 16244396056 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic formulations for transferring inferences from mathematical models to physical systems
    • doi:10.1137/S106482750342670X
    • Goldstein, M. & Rougier, J. 2004 Probabilistic formulations for transferring inferences from mathematical models to physical systems. SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 26, 467-487. (doi:10.1137/S106482750342670X)
    • (2004) SIAM J. Sci. Comput , vol.26 , pp. 467-487
    • Goldstein, M.1    Rougier, J.2
  • 26
    • 33749069924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections
    • doi:10.1175/JCLI3864.1
    • Greene, A., Goddard, L. & Lall, U. 2006 Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections. J. Clim. 19, 4326-4343. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3864.1)
    • (2006) J. Clim , vol.19 , pp. 4326-4343
    • Greene, A.1    Goddard, L.2    Lall, U.3
  • 27
    • 18544371178 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept
    • doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2005. 00103.X
    • Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. & Palmer, T. N. 2005 The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept. Tellus A 57, 219-233. (doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2005. 00103.X)
    • (2005) Tellus A , vol.57 , pp. 219-233
    • Hagedorn, R.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 28
    • 33646196299 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries
    • doi:10.1038/nature04679
    • Hegerl, G. C., Crowley, T. J., Hyde, W. T. & Frame, D. J. 2006 Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature 440, 1029-1032. (doi:10.1038/nature04679)
    • (2006) Nature , vol.440 , pp. 1029-1032
    • Hegerl, G.C.1    Crowley, T.J.2    Hyde, W.T.3    Frame, D.J.4
  • 30
    • 24644496730 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate simulation of the latest Permian: Implications for mass extinction
    • doi:10.1130/G21654.1
    • Kiehl, J. T. & Shields, C. A. 2005 Climate simulation of the latest Permian: implications for mass extinction. Geology 33, 757-760. (doi:10.1130/G21654.1)
    • (2005) Geology , vol.33 , pp. 757-760
    • Kiehl, J.T.1    Shields, C.A.2
  • 31
    • 0037129209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles
    • doi:10.1038/416719a
    • Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F. & Plattner, G.-K. 2002 Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles. Nature 416, 719-723. (doi:10.1038/416719a)
    • (2002) Nature , vol.416 , pp. 719-723
    • Knutti, R.1    Stocker, T.F.2    Joos, F.3    Plattner, G.-K.4
  • 32
    • 0142230508 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0345-1
    • Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F. & Plattner, G.-K. 2003 Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks. Clim. Dynam. 21, 257-272. (doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0345-1)
    • (2003) Clim. Dynam , vol.21 , pp. 257-272
    • Knutti, R.1    Stocker, T.F.2    Joos, F.3    Plattner, G.-K.4
  • 34
    • 33645822120 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature
    • doi:10.1175/JCLI3865.1
    • Knutti, R., Meehl, G. A., Allen, M. R. & Stainforth, D. A. 2006 Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. J. Clim. 19, 4224-4233. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3865.1)
    • (2006) J. Clim , vol.19 , pp. 4224-4233
    • Knutti, R.1    Meehl, G.A.2    Allen, M.R.3    Stainforth, D.A.4
  • 35
    • 0034351740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4196:MEFFWA>2.0.CO;2
    • Krishnamurti, T. N., Kishtawal, C. M., Zhang, Z., Larow, T., Bachiochi, D., Williford, E., Gadgil, S. & Surendran, S. 2000 Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Clim. 13, 4196-4216. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4196:MEFFWA>2.0.CO;2)
    • (2000) J. Clim , vol.13 , pp. 4196-4216
    • Krishnamurti, T.N.1    Kishtawal, C.M.2    Zhang, Z.3    Larow, T.4    Bachiochi, D.5    Williford, E.6    Gadgil, S.7    Surendran, S.8
  • 36
    • 0000423451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models
    • doi:10.1007/PL00013736
    • Lambert, S. J. & Boer, G. J. 2001 CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim. Dynam. 17, 83-106. (doi:10.1007/PL00013736)
    • (2001) Clim. Dynam , vol.17 , pp. 83-106
    • Lambert, S.J.1    Boer, G.J.2
  • 37
    • 33750265820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes
    • doi:10.1175/ JCLI3895.1
    • Lopez, A., Tebaldi, C., New, M., Stainforth, D. A., Allen, M. R. & Kettleborough, J. 2006 Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes. J. Clim. 19, 4785-4796. (doi:10.1175/ JCLI3895.1)
    • (2006) J. Clim , vol.19 , pp. 4785-4796
    • Lopez, A.1    Tebaldi, C.2    New, M.3    Stainforth, D.A.4    Allen, M.R.5    Kettleborough, J.6
  • 38
    • 23444447672 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic distributions of regional climate change and their application in risk analysis of wheat production
    • Luo, Q., Jones, R., Williams, M., Bryan, B. & Bellotti, W. 2005 Probabilistic distributions of regional climate change and their application in risk analysis of wheat production. Clim. Res. 29, 41-52.
    • (2005) Clim. Res , vol.29 , pp. 41-52
    • Luo, Q.1    Jones, R.2    Williams, M.3    Bryan, B.4    Bellotti, W.5
  • 39
    • 0000926704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0313:TCMIPO2.3. CO;2
    • Meehl, G., Boer, G. J., Covey, C., Latif, M. & Stouffer, R. J. 2000 The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81, 313-318. (doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0313:TCMIPO2.3. CO;2)
    • (2000) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc , vol.81 , pp. 313-318
    • Meehl, G.1    Boer, G.J.2    Covey, C.3    Latif, M.4    Stouffer, R.J.5
  • 40
    • 33646512052 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What does a 2°C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? A brief analysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates
    • eds H. J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley & G. Yohe, pp, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Meinshausen, M. 2005 What does a 2°C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? A brief analysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates. In Avoiding dangerous climate change (eds H. J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley & G. Yohe), pp. 265-279. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2005) Avoiding dangerous climate change , pp. 265-279
    • Meinshausen, M.1
  • 41
    • 33745473817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging with an application to global mean surface temperatures from IPCC AR4 coupled climate models
    • doi:10.1029/2006GL025779
    • Min, S.-K. & Hense, A. 2006 A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging with an application to global mean surface temperatures from IPCC AR4 coupled climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L08708. (doi:10.1029/2006GL025779)
    • (2006) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.33
    • Min, S.-K.1    Hense, A.2
  • 42
    • 4043124611 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
    • doi:10.1038/nature02771
    • Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M. & Stainforth, D. A. 2004 Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 429, 768-772. (doi:10.1038/nature02771)
    • (2004) Nature , vol.429 , pp. 768-772
    • Murphy, J.M.1    Sexton, D.M.H.2    Barnett, D.N.3    Jones, G.S.4    Webb, M.J.5    Collins, M.6    Stainforth, D.A.7
  • 43
    • 0003564167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Nakicenovic, N. et al. 2000 Special report on emission scenarios: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 599. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2000) Special report on emission scenarios , pp. 599
    • Nakicenovic, N.1
  • 44
    • 0141564825 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comments on calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0883: COCOAU>2.0.CO;2
    • Nychka, D. & Tebaldi, C. 2003 Comments on calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method. J. Clim. 16, 883-884. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0883: COCOAU>2.0.CO;2)
    • (2003) J. Clim , vol.16 , pp. 883-884
    • Nychka, D.1    Tebaldi, C.2
  • 45
    • 33646369787 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene climate in CCSM3
    • doi:10.1175/JCLI3748.1
    • Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E., Clauzet, G., Tomas, R., Levis, S. & Kothavala, Z. 2006a Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene climate in CCSM3. J. Clim. 19, 2526-2544. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3748.1)
    • (2006) J. Clim , vol.19 , pp. 2526-2544
    • Otto-Bliesner, B.L.1    Brady, E.2    Clauzet, G.3    Tomas, R.4    Levis, S.5    Kothavala, Z.6
  • 46
    • 33645234719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interglacial Project members. 20066 Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglaciation
    • doi:10.1126/science.1120808
    • Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Marshall, S. J., Overpeck, J. T., Miller, G. H., Hu, A. & CAPE Last Interglacial Project members. 20066 Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglaciation. Science 311, 1751-1753. (doi:10.1126/science.1120808)
    • Science , vol.311 , pp. 1751-1753
    • Otto-Bliesner, B.L.1    Marshall, S.J.2    Overpeck, J.T.3    Miller, G.H.4    Hu, A.5    Last, C.A.P.E.6
  • 47
    • 34247232349 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global warming in a nonlinear climate-can we be sure?
    • Palmer, T. 2005 Global warming in a nonlinear climate-can we be sure? Europhys. News 2, 42-46.
    • (2005) Europhys. News , vol.2 , pp. 42-46
    • Palmer, T.1
  • 48
    • 0037203830 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate
    • doi:10.1038/415512a
    • Palmer, T. N. & Räisänen, J. 2002 Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415, 512-514. (doi:10.1038/415512a)
    • (2002) Nature , vol.415 , pp. 512-514
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Räisänen, J.2
  • 49
    • 20544469481 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction
    • doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122552
    • Palmer, T., Shutts, G., Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F., Jung, T. & Leutbecher, M. 2005a Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 33, 163-193. (doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122552)
    • (2005) Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci , vol.33 , pp. 163-193
    • Palmer, T.1    Shutts, G.2    Hagedorn, R.3    Doblas-Reyes, F.4    Jung, T.5    Leutbecher, M.6
  • 50
    • 33644658109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 20056 Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: From basics to applications
    • doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1750
    • Palmer, T. N., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Hagedorn, R. & Weisheimer, A. 20056 Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 1991-1998. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1750)
    • Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B , vol.360 , pp. 1991-1998
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Hagedorn, R.3    Weisheimer, A.4
  • 51
    • 31544456597 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations
    • doi:10. 1029/2005GL024452
    • Piani, C., Frame, D. J., Stainforth, D. A. & Allen, M. R. 2005 Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L23 825. (doi:10. 1029/2005GL024452)
    • (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.32
    • Piani, C.1    Frame, D.J.2    Stainforth, D.A.3    Allen, M.R.4
  • 52
    • 3242868859 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 induced climate change in coupled GCM experiments
    • doi:10.1007/s003820050160
    • 2 induced climate change in coupled GCM experiments. Clim. Dynam. 13, 197-211. (doi:10.1007/s003820050160)
    • (1997) Clim. Dynam , vol.13 , pp. 197-211
    • Räisänen, J.1
  • 53
    • 0035428537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Räisänen, J. & Palmer, T. N. 2001 A probability and decision-model analysis of a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations. J. Clim. 14, 3212-3226. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001) 014<3212:APADMA>2.0.CO;2)
    • Räisänen, J. & Palmer, T. N. 2001 A probability and decision-model analysis of a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations. J. Clim. 14, 3212-3226. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001) 014<3212:APADMA>2.0.CO;2)
  • 54
    • 85032633690 scopus 로고
    • Oceanic isopycnal mixing by coordinate rotation
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1982) 012<1154:OIMBCR>2.0.CO;2
    • Redi, M. H. 1982 Oceanic isopycnal mixing by coordinate rotation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 12, 1154-1158. (doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1982) 012<1154:OIMBCR>2.0.CO;2)
    • (1982) J. Phys. Oceanogr , vol.12 , pp. 1154-1158
    • Redi, M.H.1
  • 55
    • 11844296090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal predition
    • doi:10.1175/MWR2818.1
    • Robertson, A. W., Lall, U., Zebiak, S. E. & Goddard, L. 2004 Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal predition. Mon. Weather Rev. 132, 2732-2744. (doi:10.1175/MWR2818.1)
    • (2004) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.132 , pp. 2732-2744
    • Robertson, A.W.1    Lall, U.2    Zebiak, S.E.3    Goddard, L.4
  • 56
    • 85020768608 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations
    • In press
    • Rougier, J. In press. Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations. Clim. Change.
    • Clim. Change
    • Rougier, J.1
  • 57
    • 0035799690 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is 'dangerous' in climate change?
    • doi:10.1038/35075167
    • Schneider, S. H. 2001 What is 'dangerous' in climate change? Nature 411, 17-19. (doi:10.1038/35075167)
    • (2001) Nature , vol.411 , pp. 17-19
    • Schneider, S.H.1
  • 58
    • 85020767725 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Smith, R., Tebaldi, C., Nychka, D. & Mearns, L. Submitted. Bayesian modeling of uncertainty in ensembles of climate models.
    • Smith, R., Tebaldi, C., Nychka, D. & Mearns, L. Submitted. Bayesian modeling of uncertainty in ensembles of climate models.
  • 59
    • 13444269104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
    • doi:10.1038/nature03301
    • Stainforth, D. A. et al. 2005 Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433, 403-406. (doi:10.1038/nature03301)
    • (2005) Nature , vol.433 , pp. 403-406
    • Stainforth, D.A.1
  • 60
    • 0037129227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise
    • doi:10.1038/416723a
    • Stott, P. A. & Kettleborough, J. A. 2002 Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature 416, 723-726. (doi:10.1038/416723a)
    • (2002) Nature , vol.416 , pp. 723-726
    • Stott, P.A.1    Kettleborough, J.A.2
  • 61
    • 14544276393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations
    • doi:10.1029/ 2004GL021276
    • Tebaldi, C., Mearns, L., Nychka, D. & Smith, R. 2004 Regional probabilities of precipitation change: a Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L24 213. (doi:10.1029/ 2004GL021276)
    • (2004) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.31
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Mearns, L.2    Nychka, D.3    Smith, R.4
  • 62
    • 14544287376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles
    • doi:10.1175/JCLI3363.1
    • Tebaldi, C., Smith, R., Nychka, D. & Mearns, L. 2005 Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles. J. Clim. 18, 1524-1540. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3363.1)
    • (2005) J. Clim , vol.18 , pp. 1524-1540
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Smith, R.2    Nychka, D.3    Mearns, L.4
  • 64
    • 33744775972 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8
    • von Deimling, T. S., Held, H., Ganopolski, A. & Rahmstorf, S. 2006 Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate. Clim. Dynam. 27, 149-163. (doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8)
    • (2006) Clim. Dynam , vol.27 , pp. 149-163
    • von Deimling, T.S.1    Held, H.2    Ganopolski, A.3    Rahmstorf, S.4
  • 65
    • 0035919689 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming
    • doi:10.1126/science.1061604
    • Wigley, T. M. L. & Raper, S. C. B. 2001 Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science 293, 451-454. (doi:10.1126/science.1061604)
    • (2001) Science , vol.293 , pp. 451-454
    • Wigley, T.M.L.1    Raper, S.C.B.2
  • 66
    • 21844474329 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Solar radiation budgets in atmospheric model intercomparisons from a surface perspective
    • doi:10.1029/2005GL022421
    • Wild, M. 2005 Solar radiation budgets in atmospheric model intercomparisons from a surface perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L07 704. (doi:10.1029/2005GL022421)
    • (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.32
    • Wild, M.1
  • 67
    • 33144487830 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of clear-sky solar fluxes in GCMs participating in AMIP and IPCC-AR4 from a surface perspective
    • doi:10.1029/2005JD006118
    • Wild, M., Long, C. N. & Ohmura, A. 2006 Evaluation of clear-sky solar fluxes in GCMs participating in AMIP and IPCC-AR4 from a surface perspective. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D01104. (doi:10.1029/2005JD006118)
    • (2006) J. Geophys. Res , vol.111
    • Wild, M.1    Long, C.N.2    Ohmura, A.3
  • 68
    • 0346687452 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvement of the multimodel supersensemble technique for seasonal forecasts
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3834:IOTMST>2.0. CO;2
    • Yun, W. T., Stefanova, L. & Krishnamurti, T. N. 2003 Improvement of the multimodel supersensemble technique for seasonal forecasts. J. Clim. 16, 3834-3840. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3834:IOTMST>2.0. CO;2)
    • (2003) J. Clim , vol.16 , pp. 3834-3840
    • Yun, W.T.1    Stefanova, L.2    Krishnamurti, T.N.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.