IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 7, Issue 1, 2017, Pages 28-37

  O'Neill, Brian C ^a   Oppenheimer, Michael ^b   Warren, Rachel ^c   Hallegatte, Stephane ^d   Kopp, Robert E ^e   Pörtner, Hans O ^f   Scholes, Robert ^g   Birkmann, Joern ^h   Foden, Wendy ⁱ   Licker, Rachel ^b   MacH, Katharine J ^j   Marbaix, Phillippe ^k   Mastrandrea, Michael D ^j   Price, Jeff ^c   Takahashi, Kiyoshi ^l   Van Ypersele, Jean Pascal ^k   Yohe, Gary ^m  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^d WORLD BANK   (United States)

^e USA   (United States)

^f ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE FOR POLAR AND MARINE RESEARCH   (Germany)

^g UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^h UNIVERSITY OF STUTTGART   (Germany)

ⁱ STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

^j GEOPHYSICAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^k UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN   (Belgium)

^l NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^m WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH; ENVIRONMENTAL RISK; GLOBAL CHANGE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; LITERATURE REVIEW; RISK ASSESSMENT; TEMPERATURE PROFILE; VULNERABILITY;

EID: 85008316611     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3179     Document Type: Article

References (104)

1. Report on the structured expert dialogue on the 2013-2015 review (UNFCCC, 2015).
2. Tschakert P. 1.5°C or 2°C: a conduit's view from the science-policy interface at COP20 in Lima, Peru. Clim. Change Responses 2, 3 (2015).
3. Adoption of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015).
4. Yohe, G. Reasons for concern(about climate change) in the United States. Climatic Change 99, 295-302 (2010).
5. Gattuso, J.-P. et al. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios. Science 349, http://doi.org/bfpr (2015).
6. Oppenheimer, M. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1039-1099 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).
7. Myers, N., Mittermeier, R. A., Mittermeier, C. G., da Fonseca, G. A. & Kent, J. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403, 853-858 (2000).
8. Smith, J. B. et al. in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J. & White, K. S.) 913-967 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).
9. Cramer, W. et al. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 979-1038 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
10. Bindoff, N. L. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 867-952 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
11. Gooseff, M. N., Balser, A., Bowden, W. B. & Jones, J. B. Effects of hillslope thermokarst in northern Alaska. Eos Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 90, 29-30 (2009).
12. Karl, T. R, Melillo, J. M. & Peterson, T. C. (eds). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. (US Global Change Research Program, 2009).
13. Jia, G. J., Epstein, H. E. & Walker, D. A. Vegetation greening in the Canadian Arctic related to decadal warming. J. Environ. Monit. 11, 2231-2238 (2009).
14. Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 045509 (2011).
15. Post, E. et al. Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change. Science 325, 1355-1358 (2009).
16. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318, 1737-1742 (2007).
17. Baker, A. C., Glynn, P. W. & Riegl, B. Climate change and coral reef bleaching: an ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 80, 435-471 (2008).
18. Veron, J. et al. The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350ppm CO2. Mar. Poll. Bull. 58, 1428-1436 (2009).
19. Gattuso, J. P., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Portner, H. O. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 97-100 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).
20. Foden, W. B. et al. Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals. PLoS ONE 8, e65427 (2013).
21. Rode, K. D., Robbins, C. T., Nelson, L. & Amstrup, S. C. Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities? Front. Ecol. Environ. 13, 138-145 (2015).
22. Fischlin, A. et al. in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Parry, M. L. et al.) 211-272 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2008).
23. Warren, R., Price, J., Fischlin, A., de la Nava Santos, S. & Midgley, G. Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise. Climatic Change 106, 141-177 (2011).
24. Malcolm, J. R., Liu, C., Neilson, R. P., Hansen, L. & Hannah, L. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv. Biol. 20, 538-548 (2006).
25. Urban, M. C. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science 348, 571-573 (2015).
26. Wong, P. P. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 361-409 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).
27. van Vuuren, D. P. & Carter, T. R. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old. Climatic Change 122, 415-429 (2014).
28. Segan, D. B. et al. Considering the impact of climate change on human communities significantly alters the outcome of species and site-based vulnerability assessments. Divers. Distrib. 21, 1101-1111 (2015).
29. Visser, M. E. Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change. Proc. R. Soc. B 275, 649-659 (2008).
30. Hoffmann, A. A. & Sgrò, C. M. Climate change and evolutionary adaptation. Nature 470, 479-485 (2011).
31. Strong, A. E., Liu, G., Skirving, W. & Eakin, C. M. NOAA's Coral Reef Watch program from satellite observations. Ann. GIS 17, 83-92 (2011).
32. Smith, K. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 709-754 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).
33. Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 560-564 (2015).
34. Christidis, N. et al. Human activity and anomalously warm seasons in Europe. Int. J. Climatol. 32, 225-239 (2012).
35. Kirtman, B. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 953-1028 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
36. IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (eds Field, C. B. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
37. Peduzzi, P. et al. Global trends in tropical cyclone risk. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 289-294 (2012).
38. Mendelsohn, R., Emanuel, K., Chonabayashi, S. & Bakkensen, L. The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 205-209 (2012).
39. Dong, W., Liu, Z., Liao, H., Tang, Q. & Li, X. New climate and socioeconomic scenarios for assessing global human health challenges due to heat risk. Climatic Change 130, 505-518 (2015).
40. Jones, B. et al. Future population exposure to US heat extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 652-655 (2015).
41. Birkmann, J. et al. Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk. Climatic Change 133, 53-68 (2015).
42. Visser, H., Petersen, A. C. & Ligtvoet, W. On the relation between weatherrelated disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change. Climatic Change 125, 461-477 (2014).
43. Fouillet, A. et al. Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave. Int. J. Epidemiol. 37, 309-317 (2008).
44. Garschagen, M. & Romero-Lankao, P. Exploring the relationships between urbanization trends and climate change vulnerability. Climatic Change 133, 37-52 (2015).
45. Welle, T. & Birkmann, J. The World Risk Index-an approach to assess risk and vulnerability on a global scale. J. Extreme Events 2, 1550003 (2015).
46. Porter, J. R. et al. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 485-533 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
47. Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W. & Costa-Roberts, J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333, 616-620 (2011).
48. Challinor, A. et al. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 287-291 (2014).
49. Knox, J., Hess, T., Daccache, A. & Wheeler, T. Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 034032 (2012).
50. Rosenzweig, C. et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3268-3273 (2014).
51. Gosling, S. N. & Arnell, N. W. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Climatic Change 134, 371-385 (2013).
52. Schewe, J. et al. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3245-3250 (2014).
53. Thornton, P. K., Jones, P. G., Ericksen, P. J. & Challinor, A. J. Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 117-136 (2010).
54. Niang, I. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1199-1265 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).
55. Carleton, T. A. & Hsiang, S. M. Social and economic impacts of climate. Science http://doi.org/bt7j (2016).
56. Dell, M., Jones, B. F. & Olken, B. A. What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. J. Econ. Lit. 52, 740-798 (2014).
57. Hallegatte, S. et al. Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty (World Bank, 2015).
58. Nelson, G. C. et al. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3274-3279 (2014).
59. Parfitt, J., Barthel, M. & Macnaughton, S. Food waste within food supply chains: quantification and potential for change to 2050. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365, 3065-3081 (2010).
60. Kummu, M. et al. Lost food, wasted resources: global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater, cropland, and fertiliser use. Sci. Total Environ. 438, 477-489 (2012).
61. Cassidy, E. S., West, P. C., Gerber, J. S. & Foley, J. A. Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034015 (2013).
62. Warren, R. et al. Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 678-682 (2013).
63. Tol, R. S. Correction and update: The economic effects of climate change. J. Econ. Perspect. 28, 221-225 (2014).
64. Revesz, R. L. et al. Global warming: improve economic models of climate change. Nature 508, 173-175 (2014).
65. Ockendon, N. et al. Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 2221-2229 (2014).
66. Lenton, T. M. et al. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786-1793 (2008).
67. Kopp, R. E., Shwom, R., Wagner, G. & Yuan, J. Tipping elements and climateeconomic shocks: pathways toward integrated assessment. Earth's Future 7, 346-372 (2016).
68. Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1029-1136 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
69. Church, J. A. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1137-1216 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
70. IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 3-29 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
71. Masson-Delmotte. V. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 383-464 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
72. Turney, C. S. & Jones, R. T. Does the Agulhas Current amplify global temperatures during super-interglacials? J. Quaternary Sci. 25, 839-843 (2010).
73. Cornford, S. L. et al. Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic ice sheet to a warming climate. Cryosphere 9, 1579-1600 (2015).
74. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (IPCC, 2014).
75. Pollard, D., Chang, W., Haran, M., Applegate, P. & DeConto, R. Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 8, 9925-9963 (2015).
76. Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Ridgwell, A. & Caldeira, K. Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sci. Adv. 1, e1500589 (2015).
77. Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H. & Scheuchl, B. Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3502-3509 (2014).
78. Oppenheimer, M., Little, C. M. & Cooke, R. M. Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 445-451 (2016).
79. Settele, J. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 271-359 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).
80. Burrows, M. T. et al. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507, 492-495 (2014).
81. Burrows, M.T. et al. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334, 652-655 (2011).
82. Chen, I.-C., Hill, J. K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D. B. & Thomas, C. D. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333, 1024-1026 (2011).
83. Dobrowski, S. Z. et al. The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 241-251 (2013).
84. Feeley, K. J. & Rehm, E. M. Amazon's vulnerability to climate change heightened by deforestation and man-made dispersal barriers. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 3606-3614 (2012).
85. Loarie, S. R. et al. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462, 1052-1055 (2009).
86. Sandel, B. et al. The influence of Late Quaternary climate-change velocity on species endemism. Science 334, 660-664 (2011).
87. Bopp, L. et al. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models. Biogeosciences 10, 6225-6245 (2013).
88. Pörtner, H.-O. et al. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 411-484 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
89. Bednarŝek, N. et al. Limacina helicina shell dissolution as an indicator of declining habitat suitability owing to ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem. Proc. R. Soc. B 281, 20140123 (2014).
90. Wittmann, A. C. & Pörtner, H.?O. Sensitivities of extant animal taxa to ocean acidification. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 995-1001 (2013).
91. Gatusso, J.-P. et al. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 129-131 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
92. Hinkel, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Nicholls, R. J. & Klein, R. J. The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century. An application of the DiVA and IMAGE models. Climatic Change 117, 783-794 (2013).
93. IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1-32 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
94. Hasegawa, T. et al. Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework. Environ. Sci. Technol. 48, 438-445 (2013).
95. Hasegawa, T. et al. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger. Environ. Sci. Technol. 49, 7245-7253 (2015).
96. Schmidhuber, J. & Tubiello, F. N. Global food security under climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 19703-19708 (2007).
97. Renn, O. Concepts of risk: an interdisciplinary review part 1: disciplinary risk concepts. Gaia 17, 50-66 (2008).
98. Cardona, O.-D. et al. In Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 65-108 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
99. Cutter, S. L. Societal responses to environmental hazards. Int. Soc. Sci. J. 48, 525-536 (1996).
100. IPCC: Annex II: Glossary. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1757-1776 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).
101. IPCC: A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 25-64 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
102. Schneider, S. et al. in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Parry, M. L. et al.) 779-810 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2008).
103. Smith, J. B. et al. Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reasons for concern. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 4133-4137 (2009).
104. Birkmann, J. & Welle, T. Assessing the risk of loss and damage: exposure, vulnerability and risk to climate-related hazards for different country classifications. Int. J. Glob. Warming 8, 191-212 (2015).