Considering the impact of climate change on human communities significantly alters the outcome of species and site-based vulnerability assessments

Diversity and Distributions

Volumn 21, Issue 9, 2015, Pages 1101-1111

  Segan, Daniel B ^a   Hole, David G ^b,c   Donatti, Camila I ^b   Zganjar, Chris ^d   Martin, Shaun ^e   Butchart, Stuart H M ^f   Watson, James E M ^a,g  

^a WILDLIFE CONSERVATION SOCIETY   (United States)

^b Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans   (United States)

^c DURHAM UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^d THE NATURE CONSERVANCY   (United States)

^e WORLD WILDLIFE FUND   (United States)

^f BIRDLIFE INTERNATIONAL   (United Kingdom)

^g UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

Author keywords

Adaptation planning; Climate change; Conservation planning; Human response; Indirect impact; Site vulnerability; Species vulnerability; Vulnerability assessment

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; ASSESSMENT METHOD; BIODIVERSITY; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION PLANNING; ENDANGERED SPECIES; HUMAN ACTIVITY; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; SPECIES CONSERVATION; VULNERABILITY;

SOUTHERN AFRICA;

AVES;

EID: 84939773633     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: 14724642     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12355     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Adeloye, A. (2010) Global warming impact: flood events, wet-dry conditions and changing scene in world food security. Journal of Agricultural Research and Development, 9, 1-15.
2. Akçakaya, H.R., Butchart, S.H.M., Watson, J.E.M. & Pearson, R.G. (2014) Preventing species extinctions resulting from climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4, 1048-1049.
3. Araújo, M.B., Cabeza, M., Thuiller, W., Hannah, L. & Williams, P.H. (2004) Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Global Change Biology, 10, 1618-1626.
4. Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W. & Courchamp, F. (2012) Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 15, 365-377.
5. Bernazzani, P., Bradley, B.A. & Opperman, J.J. (2012) Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act. Environmental management, 49, 1103-1114.
6. Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J.D. & Paterson, J. (2011) Are we adapting to climate change? Global Environmental Change, 21, 25-33.
7. BirdLife International (2004) Agriculture and forestry are key drivers of habitat destruction in Important Bird Areas. Presented as part of the BirdLife State of the world's birds website. Available at: http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/sowb/casestudy/123 (accessed 4 October 2013).
8. BirdLife International (2013) Important Bird Areas factsheet: Kafue Flats. Available at: http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/sitefactsheet.php?id=7187 (accessed 22 August 2013).
9. BirdLife International (2014a) Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas: a global network for conserving nature and benefiting people. BirdLife International, Cambridge.
10. BirdLife International (2014b) Species factsheet: Uratelornis chimaera. Available at: http://www.birdlife.org (accessed 4 October 2013).
11. Black, R., Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A. & Thomas, D. (2011) The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change, 21S, S3-S11.
12. Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M. & Hsiang, S.M. (2014) Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 111, 9780-9785.
13. Brown, E., Dudley, N., Lindhe, A., Muhtaman, D.R., Stewart, C. & Synnott, T. (2013) Common guidance for the identification of High Conservation Values. HCV Resource Network, Oxford.
14. Carvalho, S.B., Brito, J.C., Crespo, E.J. & Possingham, H.P. (2010) From climate change predictions to actions - conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale. Global Change Biology, 16, 3257-3270.
15. Chapman, S., Mustin, K., Renwick, A.R., Segan, D.B., Hole, D.G., Pearson, R.G. & Watson, J.E.M. (2014) Publishing trends on climate change vulnerability in the conservation literature reveal a predominant focus on direct impacts and long time-scales. Diversity and Distributions, 20, 1221-1228.
16. Dawson, T.P., Jackson, S.T., House, J.I., Prentice, I.C. & Mace, G.M. (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science, 332, 53-57.
17. Defeo, O., McLachlan, A., Schoeman, D.S., Schlacher, T.A., Dugan, J., Jones, A., Lastra, M. & Scapini, F. (2009) Threats to sandy beach ecosystems: a review. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 81, 1-12.
18. Feng, S., Krueger, A.B. & Oppenheimer, M. (2010) Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 107, 14257-14262.
19. Foden, W.B., Butchart, S.H.M., Stuart, S.N., Vié, J.-C., Akçakaya, H.R., Angulo, A., DeVantier, L.M., Gutsche, A., Turak, E., Cao, L., Donner, S.D., Katariya, V., Bernard, R., Holland, R.A., Hughes, A.F., O'Hanlon, S.E., Garnett, S.T., Şekercioğlu, Ç.H. & Mace, G.M. (2013) Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, Amphibians and Corals. PLoS ONE, 8, e65427.
20. Ford, J.D., Berrang-Ford, L. & Paterson, J. (2011) A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations. Climatic Change, 106, 327-336.
21. Forero-Medina, G., Joppa, L. & Pimm, S.L. (2011) Constraints to species' elevational range shifts as climate changes: constraints to elevational range shifts. Conservation Biology, 25, 163-171.
22. Garcia, R.A., Burgess, N.D., Cabeza, M., Rahbek, C. & Araújo, M.B. (2012) Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates. Global Change Biology, 18, 1253-1269.
23. Garcia, R.A., Araújo, M.B., Burgess, N.D., Foden, W.B., Gutsche, A., Rahbek, C. & Cabeza, M. (2014) Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 41, 724-735.
24. Glick, P., Stein, B.A. & Edelson, N.A. (2011) Scanning the conservation horizon?: a guide to climate change vulnerability assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.
25. Grantham, H.S., McLeod, E., Brooks, A., Jupiter, S.D., Hardcastle, J., Richardson, A.J., Poloczanska, E.S., Hils, T., Mieszkowska, N., Klein, C.J. & Watson, J.E.M. (2011) Ecosystem-based adaptation in marine ecosystems of tropical Oceania in response to climate change. Pacific Conservation Biology, 17, 241.
26. Gregory, R.D., Willis, S.G., Jiguet, F., Vorisek, P., Klvanova, A., van Strien, A., Huntley, B., Collingham, Y.C., Couvet, D. & Green, R.E. (2009) An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations. PLoS ONE, 4, 1-6.
27. Hannah, L., Midgley, G., Andelman, S., Araújo, M., Hughes, G., Martinez-Meyer, E., Pearson, R. & Williams, P. (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 5, 131-138.
28. Hannah, L., Ikegami, M., Hole, D.G., Seo, C., Butchart, S.H.M., Peterson, A.T. & Roehrdanz, P.R. (2013) Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security. PLoS ONE, 8, e72590.
29. Hilton-Taylor, C., Pollock, C.M., Chanson, J.S., Butchart, S.H.M., Oldfield, T.E.E. & Katariya, V. (2009) State of the world's species. Wildlife in a changing world: an analysis of the 2008 IUCN red list of threatened species (ed. by J.-C. Vié, C. Hilton-Taylor and S.N. Stuart), pp. 15-42. IUCN; Lynx Edicions, Gland, Switzerland, Barcelona, Spain.
30. Hoffmann, M., Brooks, T.M., da Fonseca, G.A.B., Gascon, C., Hawkins, A.F.A., James, R.E., Langhammer, P., Mittermeier, R.A., Pilgrim, J.D., Rodrigues, A.S.L. & Silva, J.M.C. (2008) Conservation planning and the IUCN Red List. Endangered Species Research, 6, 113-125.
31. Hole, D.G., Willis, S.G., Pain, D.J., Fishpool, L.D., Butchart, S.H.M., Collingham, Y.C., Rahbek, C. & Huntley, B. (2009) Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network. Ecology Letters, 12, 420-431.
32. Hole, D.G., Huntley, B., Arinaitwe, J., Butchart, S.H.M., Collingham, Y.C., Fishpool, L.D.C., Pain, D.J. & Willis, S.G. (2011) Toward a management framework for networks of protected areas in the face of climate change. Conservation Biology, 25, 305-315.
33. Howden, S.M., Souddana, J.-F., Tubiello, F.N., Chhetri, N., Dunlop, M. & Meinke, H. (2007) Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 104, 19691-19696.
34. Hughes, T.P., Baird, A.H., Bellwood, D.R., Card, M., Connolly, S.R., Folke, C., Grosberg, R., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jackson, J.B.C., Kleypas, J., Lough, J.M., Marshall, P., Nystrom, M., Palumbi, S.R., Pandolfi, J.M., Rosen, B. & Roughgarden, J. (2003) Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science, 301, 929-933.
35. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
36. Jones, H.P., Hole, D.G. & Zavaleta, E.S. (2012) Harnessing nature to help people adapt to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2, 504-509.
37. Joseph, L.N., Maloney, R.F. & Possingham, H.P. (2009) Optimal allocation of resources among threatened species: a project prioritization protocol. Conservation Biology, 23, 328-338.
38. Jupiter, S.D., Jenkins, A., Long, W.J.L., Maxwell, S., Carruthers, T.J.B., Hodge, K.B., Govan, H., Tamelander, J. & Watson, J.E.M. (2014) Principles for integrated island management in the tropical Pacific. Pacific Conservation Biology, 20, 193-205.
39. Lane, J.E., Kruuk, L.E.B., Charmantier, A., Murie, J.O. & Dobson, F.S. (2012) Delayed phenology and reduced fitness associated with climate change in a wild hibernator. Nature, 489, 554-557.
40. Lawler, J.J., Shafer, S.L., White, D., Kareiva, P., Maurer, E.P., Blaustein, A.R. & Bartlein, P.J. (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology, 90, 588-597.
41. Liu, C., Golding, D. & Gong, G. (2008) Farmers' coping response to the low flows in the lower Yellow River: a case study of temporal dimensions of vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 18, 543-553.
42. Long, A.J., Crosby, M.J. & Stattersfield, A.J. (1996) Towards a global map of biodiversity: patterns in the distribution of restricted-range birds. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, 5, 281.
43. Maclean, I.M.D. & Wilson, R.J. (2011) Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108, 12337-12342.
44. Marchiori, L., Maystadt, J.-F. & Schumacher, I. (2012) The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 63, 355-374.
45. McAllister, D.E., Craig, J.F., Davidson, N., Delany, S. & Seddon, M. (2001) Biodiversity impacts of large dams. Background Paper Nr. 1 Prepared for IUCN/UNEP/UNF, Gland, Switzerland/Nairobi, Kenya/ New York, USA.
46. McClanahan, Tr., Cinner, Je., Maina, J., Graham, Naj., Daw, Tm., Stead, Sm., Wamukota, A., Brown, K., Ateweberhan, M., Venus, V. & Polunin, Nvc. (2008) Conservation action in a changing climate. Conservation Letters, 1, 53-59.
47. McClean, C.J., Lovett, J.C., Küper, W., Hannah, L., Sommer, J.H., Barthlott, W., Termansen, M., Smith, G.F., Tokumine, S. & Taplin, J.R.D. (2005) African plant diversity and climate change. Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden, 92, 139-152.
48. McDonald, R.I., Forman, R.T.T., Kareiva, P., Neugarten, R., Salzer, D. & Fisher, J. (2009) Urban effects, distance, and protected areas in an urbanizing world. Landscape and Urban Planning, 93, 63-75.
49. Midgley, S.J.E., Davies, R.A.G. & Chesterman, S. (2011) Climate risk and vulnerability mapping in Southern Africa: status Quo (2008) and Future (2050). OneWorld Sustainable Investments, Capetown, SA.
50. Monzón, J., Moyer-Horner, L. & Palamar, M.B. (2011) Climate change and species range dynamics in protected areas. BioScience, 61, 752-761.
51. Ogutu, J.O., Piepho, H.-P., Dublin, H.T., Bhola, N. & Reid, R.S. (2009) Dynamics of Mara-Serengeti ungulates in relation to land use changes. Journal of Zoology, 278, 1-14.
52. Pacifici, M., Foden, W.B., Visconti, P. et al. (2015) Assessing species vulnerability to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 5, 215-224.
53. Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
54. Paterson, J.S., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Piper, J.M. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2008) Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Threat to Biodiversity. Conservation Biology, 22, 1352-1355.
55. Pinsky, M.L. & Fogarty, M. (2012) Lagged social-ecological responses to climate and range shifts in fisheries. Climatic Change, 115, 883-891.
56. Ponce-Reyes, R., Reynoso-Rosales, V.-H., Watson, J.E.M., VanDerWal, J., Fuller, R.A., Pressey, R.L. & Possingham, H.P. (2012) Vulnerability of cloud forest reserves in Mexico to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2, 448-452.
57. Prowse, T.D., Furgal, C., Chouinard, R., Melling, H., Milburn, D. & Smith, S.L. (2009) Implications of climate change for economic development in northern Canada: energy, resource, and transportation sectors. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 38, 272-281.
58. Rodrigues, A.S.L., Pilgrim, J.D., Lamoreux, J.F., Hoffmann, M. & Brooks, T.M. (2006) The value of the IUCN Red List for conservation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 21, 71-76.
59. Sanderson, E.W., Jaiteh, M., Levy, M.A., Redford, K.H., Wannebo, A.V. & Woolmer, G. (2002) The human footprint and the last of the wild. BioScience, 52, 891-904.
60. Schwartz, M.W. (2012) Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions. Biological Conservation, 155, 149-156.
61. Schwartz, N.B., Uriarte, M., Gutiérrez-Vélez, V.H., Baethgen, W., DeFries, R., Fernandes, K. & Pinedo-Vasquez, M.A. (2015) Climate, landowner residency, and land cover predict local scale fire activity in the Western Amazon. Global Environmental Change, 31, 144-153.
62. Sekercioglu, C.H., Schneider, S.H., Fay, J.P. & Loarie, S.R. (2008) Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conservation Biology: The Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, 22, 140-150.
63. Seneviratne, S.I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C.M., Kanae, S., Kossin, J., Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M., Sorteberg, A., Vera, C. & Zhang, X. (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. (ed. by C.B. Field, V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor and P.M. Midgley), pp. 109-130. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY.
64. Temmerman, S., Meire, P., Bouma, T.J., Herman, P.M.J., Ysebaert, T. & De Vriend, H.J. (2013) Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change. Nature, 504, 79-83.
65. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., de Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Townsend Peterson, A., Phillips, O.L. & Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.
66. Thuiller, W., Richardson, D.M., Pyšek, P., Midgley, G.F., Hughes, G.O. & Rouget, M. (2005) Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale. Global Change Biology, 11, 2234-2250.
67. Turner, W.R., Bradley, B.A., Estes, L.D., Hole, D.G., Oppenheimer, M. & Wilcove, D.S. (2010) Climate change: helping nature survive the human response. Conservation Letters, 3, 304-312.
68. Visconti, P., Pressey, R.L., Giorgini, D., Maiorano, L., Bakkenes, M., Boitani, L., Alkemade, R., Falcucci, A., Chiozza, F. & Rondinini, C. (2011) Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 366, 2693-2702.
69. Watson, J.E.M. (2014) Human responses to climate change will seriously impact biodiversity conservation: it's time we start planning for them. Conservation Letters, 7, 1-2.
70. Watson, J.E.M. & Segan, D.B. (2013) Accommodating the human response for realistic adaptation planning: response to Gillson et al. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28, 573-574.
71. Willis, S.G., Hole, D.G., Collingham, Y.C., Hilton, G., Rahbek, C. & Huntley, B. (2008) Assessing the impacts of future climate change on protected area networks: a method to simulate individual species' responses. Environmental Management, 43, 836-845.