Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 3, Issue 7, 2013, Pages 678-682

  Warren, R ^a   Vanderwal, J ^b   Price, J ^a   Welbergen, J A ^b   Atkinson, I ^b   Ramirez Villegas, J ^c,d,e   Osborn, T J ^a   Jarvis, A ^c,d   Shoo, L P ^b,f   Williams, S E ^b   Lowe, J ^g  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^b JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR TROPICAL AGRICULTURE CIAT   (Colombia)

^d Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)   (Colombia)

^e UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^g UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; EMISSION INVENTORY; ENDEMIC SPECIES; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GREENHOUSE GAS; MITIGATION; RANGE SIZE;

EID: 84879777383     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1887     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Thomas, C. D. et al. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145-148 (2004).
2. Malcolm, J. R., Liu, C., Neilson, R. P., Hansen, L. & Hannah, L. E. E. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv. Biol. 20, 538-548 (2006).
3. Fischlin, A. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E.) 211-272 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
4. Jetz, W., Wilcove, D. S. & Dobson, A. P. Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol. 5, 1211-1219 (2007).
5. Sekercioglu, C. H., Schneider, S. H., Fay, J. P. & Loarie, S. R. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conserv. Biol. 22, 140-150 (2008).
6. Thuiller, W. et al. Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe. Nature 470, 531-534 (2011).
7. Gaston, K. J. & Fuller, R. A. Commonness, population depletion and conservation biology. TREE 23, 14-19 (2008).
8. Elith, J. et al. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Div. Distrib. 17, 43-57 (2010).
9. Brown, J. H. On the relationship between abundance and distribution of species. Am. Nature 124, 255-279 (1984).
10. Warren, R., Price, J., Fischlin, A., de la Nava Santos, S & Midgley, G. Increasing impacts of climate change on ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise. Climatic Change 106, 141-177 (2011).
11. Fee, E. et al. Scientific Perspectives After Copenhagen (European Union, 2010).
12. Den Elzen, M. G. J., van Vuuren, D. P. & van Vliet, J. Postponing emission reductions from 2020 to 2030 increases climate risks and long-term costs. Climatic Change 99, 313-320 (2010).
13. Lawler, J. J. et al. Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology 90, 588-597 (2009).
14. Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: Report of The Second ad hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity And Climate Change (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2009).
15. Visconti, P. et al. Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 366, 2693-2702 (2011).
16. Building A Low-carbon Economy: The UK's Contribution to Tackling Climate Change (Climate Change Committee, 2008).
17. Dormann, C. F. Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic Appl. Ecol. 8, 387-397 (2007).
18. Early, R. & Sax, D. F. Analysis of climate paths reveals potential limitations on species range shifts. Ecol. Lett. 14, 1125-1133 (2011).
19. Peters, G. P. et al. Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Nature Clim. Change 2, 2-4 (2012).
20. Nakicenovic N. et al. (eds) IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000).
21. Gohar, L. K. & Lowe, J. A. Summary of the emissions mitigation scenarios: Part 1 (Met Office Hadley Centre, 2009); available at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/r/0/AVOID-WS1-D1-02-20090404.pdf.
22. Wigley, T. M. L. & Raper, S. C. B. Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science 293, 451-454 (2001).
23. Lowe, J. A. et al. How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming? Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 014012 (2009).
24. Osborn, T. J. A user guide for ClimGen: A flexible tool for generating monthly climate data sets and scenarios. 19 (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 2009).
25. Warren, R. et al. Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change. Environ. Modelling Softw. 23, 592-610 (2008).
26. Meehl, G. A. et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383-1394 (2007).
27. Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P. & Schapire, R. E. Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecol. Model. 190, 231-259 (2006).
28. Ramirez-Villegas, J. & Bueno-Cabrera, A. Working with climate data and niche modelling I. Creation of bioclimatic variables (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, 2009).
29. http://data.gbif.org/
30. Phillips, S. J. & Dudik, M. Modelling of species distributions with MaxEnt: New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31, 161-175 (2008).
31. Olson, D. M. et al. Terrestrial ecoregions of the worlds: A new map of life on Earth. Bioscience 51, 933-938 (2001).