Future population exposure to US heat extremes

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 5, Issue 7, 2015, Pages 652-655

  Jones, Bryan ^a   O'Neill, Brian C ^b   Mcdaniel, Larry ^b   Mcginnis, Seth ^b   Mearns, Linda O ^b   Tebaldi, Claudia ^b  

^a CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DECADAL VARIATION; FUTURE PROSPECT; GLOBAL CLIMATE; HEAT SHOCK; POPULATION GROWTH; REGIONAL CLIMATE; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84932107232     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2631     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Collins, M. R, et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 12 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013
2. Walsh, J. D, et al. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment Ch. 2, 19-67 (US Global Change Research Program, 2014
3. Nakicenovic, N, et al. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2010
4. Cardona, O. D, et al. in Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (eds Field, C. B. et al.) Ch. 2 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012
5. IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013
6. Luber, G. K, et al. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment Ch. 9, 220-256 (US Global Change Research Program, 2014
7. van Vuuren, D, et al. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change 122, 373-386 (2014
8. Luber, G. & McGeehin, M. Climate change and extreme heat events. Am. J. Prev. Med. 35, 429-435 (2008
9. Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events (CDC, 2012); http://www.cdc.gov/.climateandhealth/pubs/ClimateChangeandExtremeHeatEvents.pdf
10. Duffy, P. B. & Tebaldi, C. Increasing Prevalence of Extreme Summer Temperatures in the U.S. Climatic Change 111, 487-495 (2012
11. Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F.W., Zhang, X. & Wehner, M. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climatic Change 119, 345-357 (2013
12. Anderson, B. G. & Bell, M. L.Weather-related mortality: How heat, cold, and heat waves Affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology 20, 205-213 (2009
13. Kovats, R. S. & Hajat, S. Heat stress and public health: A critical review. Annu. Rev. Public Health 29, 41-55 (2008
14. McGeehin, M. A. & Mirabelli, M. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ. Health Perspect. 109, 185-189 (2001
15. Moss, R. P. L, et al. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment Ch. 26, 620-647 (US Global Change Research Program, 2014
16. Bouwer, L. M. Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure. Risk Anal. 33, 915-930 (2013
17. Vorhees, S. A, et al. Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: A proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45, 1450-1457 (2011
18. Corell, R.W, et al. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment Ch. 29, 707-718 (US Global Change Research Program, 2014
19. Jones, B. & O'Neill, B. C. Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 044021 (2013
20. Barnett, A. G., Tong, S. & Clements, A. C. A.What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality? Environ. Res. 110, 604-611 (2010
21. Gasparrini, A. & Armstrong, B. The impact of heat waves on mortality. Epidemiology 22, 68-73 (2012
22. Knowlton, K, et al. Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region. Am. J. Public Health 97, 2028-2034 (2007
23. Wilder, M. G, et al. in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment (eds Garfin, G., Jardine, A., Merideth, R., Black, M. & LeRoy, S.) 340-384 (Island Press, 2013
24. Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G. B., Feddema, J. & Jackson, T. An examination of urban heat island characteristics in a global climate model. Int. J. Clim. 31, 1848-1865 (2011
25. DiLuca, A, et al. Potential for added value in present temperature simulated by high-resolution nested RCMs in climate and in the climate change signal. Clim. Dynam. 40, 443-464 (2013
26. Mearns, L. O, et al. Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Climatic Change. 120, 965-975 (2013
27. Mearns, L. O, et al. A regional climate change assessment program for North America. Eos 90, 311-312 (2009
28. Mearns, L. O, et al. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program 2014-02-06 (National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth System, accessed 6 February 2014); http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6RN35ST
29. McGinnis, S., Nychka, D. & Mearns, L. O. in Machine Learning and Data Mining Approaches to Climate Science: Proc. 4th Int.Workshop on Climate Informatics (eds Lakshmanan, V., Gilleland, E., McGovern, A. & Tingley, M.) (Springer, in the press); http://go.nature.com/IjDyt6
30. Maurer, E. P.,Wood, A.W., Adam, J. C., Lettenmaier, D. P. & Nijssen, B. A long-Term hydrologically-based data set of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J. Clim. 15, 3237-3251 (2002