Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise

Climatic Change

Volumn 106, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 141-177

  Warren, Rachel ^a   Price, Jeff ^b,c   Fischlin, Andreas ^d   de la Nava Santos, Santiago ^a   Midgley, Guy ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^b WORLD WILDLIFE FUND   (United States)

^c CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^e SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL BIODIVERSITY INSTITUTE   (South Africa)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; GAS CONCENTRATION; GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES; GLOBAL-MEAN TEMPERATURE; HOTSPOTS; LAND-USE CHANGE; META-ANALYSIS; NEGATIVE IMPACTS; PRE-INDUSTRIAL; TIME FRAME; UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGES; UPSCALING;

BIODIVERSITY; DEFORESTATION; GAS EMISSIONS; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GASES; LAND USE;

ECOSYSTEMS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DEFORESTATION; GREENHOUSE GAS; LAND USE CHANGE; META-ANALYSIS; UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 79955030833     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9923-5     Document Type: Review

References (137)

1. 2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy. New Phytol 165: 351-371.
2. Araujo MB, Whittaker RJ, Ladle RJ et al (2005) Reducing uncertaintiy in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 14: 529-538.
3. Arnell NW, Livermore MJL, Kovats S et al (2004) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines. Glob Environ Change 14: 3-20.
4. Arzel O, Fichefet T, Goose H (2006) Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Model 12: 401-415.
5. Atkinson A, Siegel V, Pakhomov E et al (2004) Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature 432: 100-104.
6. Bakkenes M, Alkemade JRM, Ihle F et al (2002) Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Glob Chang Biol 8: 390-407.
7. Beaumont LJ, Hughes L (2002) Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 8: 954-971.
8. Benning TL, Lapointe D, Atkinson CT et al (2002) Interactions of climate change with biological invasions and land use in the Hawaiian Islands: modeling the fate of endemic birds using a geographic information system. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99: 14246-14249.
9. Berry PM, Harrison PA, Dawson TP et al (2005) Modelling natural resource responses to climate change (MONARCH): a local approach. UKCIP Technical Report, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford, p 24.
10. 2 and fire in promoting the spread of grasslands and savannas. Glob Chang Biol 9: 973-982.
11. Bosch J, Carrascal LM, Duran L et al (2006) Climate change and outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis in a montane area of Central Spain-is there a link? Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 274: 253-260.
12. Bowman DMJS, Walsh A, Milne DJ (2001) Forest expansion and grassland contraction within aEucalyptus savanna matrix between 1941 and 1994 at Litchfield National Park in the Australian monsoon tropics. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 10: 535-548.
13. Broennimann O, Thuiller W, Hughes G et al (2006) Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change? Glob Chang Biol 12: 1079-1093.
14. Brooker RW, Travis JMJ, Clark EJ et al (2007) Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change. J Theor Biol 245: 59-65.
15. Buckley LB, Roughgarden J (2004) Effects of changes in climate and land use. Nature 430: 34.
16. Burkett VR, Wilcox DA, Stottlemyer R et al (2005) Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: case studies and policy implications. Ecol Complexity 2: 357-394.
17. Chapin FS, Sturm M, Serreze MC et al (2005) Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming. Science 310(5748): 657-660.
18. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 847.
19. Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD et al (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187.
20. Cox PM, Betts RA, Collins M et al (2004) Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theor Appl Climatol 78: 137-156.
21. 2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Glob Chang Biol 7: 357-373.
22. Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science 292: 673-679.
23. Den Elzen M, Meinshausen M (2006) Multi-gas emission pathways for meeting the EU 2°C climate target. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovich N et al (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 299.
24. Durance I, Ormerod SJ (2007) Climate change effects on upland stream macro-invertebrates over a 25-year period. Glob Chang Biol 13: 942-957.
25. Eliot I, Finlayson CM, Waterman P (1999) Predicted climate change, sea-level rise and wetland management in the Australian wet-dry tropics. Wetlands Ecol Manag 7: 63-81.
26. Erasmus BFN, van Jaarsveld AS, Chown SL et al (2002) Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 8: 679-693.
27. European Climate Forum (2004) What is dangerous climate change? In: Initial results of a symposium on key vulnerable regions climate change and article 2 of the UNFCCC. International Symposium, Beijing, India, 27-30 October, ECF: European Climate Forum, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
28. Feeley KJ, Joseph Wright S, Nur Supardi MN et al (2007) Decelerating growth in tropical forest trees. Ecol Lett 10: 461-469.
29. Fischlin A, Gyalistras D (1997) Assessing impacts of climatic change on forests in the Alps. Glob Ecol Biogeogr Lett 6(1): 19-37.
30. Fischlin A, Midgley GF, Price JT et al (2007) Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel of climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 211-272.
31. Fitzpatrick MC, Gove AD, Sanders NJ et al (2008) Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia. Glob Chang Biol 14: 1337-1352.
32. Foden W, Midgley GF, Hughes G et al (2007) A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags. Divers Distrib 13: 645-653. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1472-4642. 2007. 00391. x.
33. Folkestad T (2005) Evidence and implications of dangerous climate change in the Arctic. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovich N, Wigley T, Yohe G (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 215.
34. Forcada J, Trathan PN, Reid K et al (2006) Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming. Glob Chang Biol 12: 411-423.
35. Fuhrer J, Beniston M, Fischlin A et al (2006) Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland. Clim Change 79: 79-102.
36. Galbraith H, Jones R, Park R et al (2002) Global climate change and sea level rise: potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds. Waterbirds 25: 173-183.
37. Gitay H, Brown S, Easterling W et al (2001) Ecosystems and their goods and services. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA et al (eds) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, UK.
38. 2 increases the vigor of tropical climbing plants. Glob Chang Biol 8: 1109-1117.
39. Gyalistras D, Fischlin A (1999) Towards a general method to construct regional climatic scenarios for model-based impacts assessments. Petermanns Geogr Mitt 143: 251-264.
40. Gyalistras D, von Storch H, Fischlin A et al (1994) Linking GCM-simulated climatic changes to ecosystem models: case studies of statistical downscaling in the Alps. Clim Res 4: 167-189.
41. Halloy SRP, Mark AF (2003) Climate-change effects on alpine plant biodiversity: a New Zealand perspective on quantifying the threat. Arct Antarct Alp Res 35: 248-254.
42. Hannah L, Midgley GF, Lovejoy T et al (2002) Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate. Conserv Biol 16: 264-268.
43. Hare W (2006) Relationship between global mean temperature and impacts on ecosystems, food production, water and socioeconomic systems. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovich N, Wigley T, Yohe G (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 177.
44. Harte J, Ostling A, Green JL et al (2004) Climate change and extinction risk. Nature 430: 36.
45. 2 in the atmosphere. In: Biodiversity Series 285/2006 DN-utredning 2006-1, OSPAR commission convention for the protection of the marine environment of the North-East Atlantic (the "OSPAR convention"), London, UK, pp 1-36.
46. Hawkes LA, Broderick AC, Godfrey MH et al (2007) Investigating the potential impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population. Glob Chang Biol 13: 923-932.
47. Hilbert DW, Bradford M, Parker T et al (2004) Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming. Biol Conserv 116: 367-377.
48. Hoegh-Guldberg O (1999) Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs. Mar Freshw Res 50: 839-866.
49. Holmgren M, Scheffer M, Ezcurra E et al (2001) El Nino effects on the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Trends Ecol Evol 16: 89-94.
50. Houghton JT, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums JJ (eds) (1990) Scientific assessment of climate change. Report prepared for IPCC by working group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
51. Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA et al (eds) (1996) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
52. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ et al (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
53. Hughes L, Cawsey EM, Westoby M (1996) Climatic range sizes of eucalyptus species in relation to future climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr Lett 5: 23-29.
54. Hughes TP, Baird AH, Bellwood DR et al (2003) Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301: 929-933.
55. Hulme M, Mitchell J, Ingram W et al (1999) Climate change scenarios for global impacts studies. Glob Environ Change 9: S3-S19.
56. Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X et al (2002) Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom. The UKCIP02 scientific report. Tyndall centre for climate change research, school of environmental sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, p 120.
57. Huntley B, Collingham YC, Green RE et al (2006) Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds. Ibis 148(s1): 8-28.
58. Huntley B, Collingham YC, Willis GW et al (2008) Potential impacts of climate change upon European breeding birds. PLoS ONE 1: e1439. doi: 10. 1371/journal. pone. 0001439.
59. IPCC (2001) In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DG et al (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, UK.
60. IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1-18.
61. Jetz W, Wilcove DS, Dobson AP (2008) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol 5(6): e157. doi: 10. 1371/journal. pbio. 0050157.
62. Johnson WC, Millett BV, Gilmanov T et al (2005) Vulnerability of northern prairie wetlands to climate change. Bioscience 55: 863-872.
63. Kaplan JO, Bigelow NH, Prentice IC et al (2003) Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. J Geophys Res 108: 8171-8200. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD002559.
64. Kattenberg A, Giorgi F, Grassl H et al (1996) Climate models-projections of future climate. In: Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A Maskell K (eds) Climate change 1995-the science of climate change contribution of working group I to the second assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 289-357.
65. Kerr J, Packer L (1998) The impact of climate change on mammal diversity in Canada. Environ Monit Assess 49: 263-270.
66. Kirschbaum M, Fischlin A (1996) Climate change impacts on forests. In: Watson R, Zinyowera MC Moss RH (eds) Climate change 1995-impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analysis. Contribution of working group II to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 95-129.
67. Kurz WA, Dymond CC, Stinson G et al (2008) Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452(7190): 987-990.
68. Leemans R, Eickhout B (2004) Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change. Glob Environ Change 14: 219-228.
69. Lensing JR, Wise DH (2007) Impact of changes in rainfall amounts predicted by climate-change models on decomposition in a deciduous forest. Appl Soil Ecol 35: 523-534.
70. Levinsky I, Skov F, Svenning J-C et al (2007) Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals. Biodivers Conserv 16: 3803-3816.
71. Lewis O (2006) Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis. Philos Trans R Soc 361: 163-171.
72. Lucht W, Schaphoff S, Erbrecht T et al (2006) Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change. Carbon Bal Manag 1: 6-7. doi: 10. 1186/1750068016.
73. Malcolm JR, Liu CR, Neilson RP et al (2006) Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv Biol 20: 538-548.
74. Martinez-Meyer E, Peterson AT, Hargrove WW (2004) Ecological niches and stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 13: 305-314.
75. Mastrandrea MD, Schneider SH (2006) Probabalistic assessment of dangerous climate change and emissions scenarios: stakeholder metrics and overshoot pathways. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovich N et al (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, UK, pp 253-264.
76. McClean CJ, Lovett JC, Kuper W et al (2005) African plant diversity and climate change. Ann Mo Bot Gard 92: 139-152.
77. McDonald KA, Brown JH (1992) Using montane mammals to model extinctions due to global change. Conserv Biol 6: 409-415.
78. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al (2007) Chapter Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 747-845.
79. Memmott J, Craze PG, Waser NM et al (2007) Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions. Ecol Lett 10: 710-717.
80. Midgley GF, Thuiller W (2005) Global environmental change and the uncertain fate of biodiversity. New Phytol 167: 638-641.
81. Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D et al (2002) Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 11: 445-451.
82. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Millennium ecosystem assessment: living beyond our means-natural assets and human well-being (statement from the board). Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, p 28. Available at http://www. millenniumassessment. org/.
83. Mitchell JFB, Johns TC, Gregory JM et al (1995) Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Nature 376: 501-504.
84. Moriondo M, Good P, Durao R et al (2006) Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Clim Res 31: 85-95.
85. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G et al (eds) (2000) Emissions scenarios-a special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 509.
86. Najjar RG (2000) The potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Clim Res 15: 160-160.
87. Neilson RP, Drapek RJ (1998) Potentially complex biosphere responses to transient global warming. Glob Change Biol 4: 505-521.
88. Ni J (2001) Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of China: estimates at different spatial resolutions and their responses to climate change. Clim Change 49: 339-358.
89. Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans FMJ, Marchand M (1999) Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Glob Environ Change 9: 69-87.
90. Ohlemüller R, Gritt ES, Sykes MT et al (2006) Quantifying components of risk for European woody species under climate change. Glob Change Biol 12: 1788-1799.
91. O'Neill B, Oppenheimer M (2004) Climate change impacts are sensitive to the stabilisation path. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101: 16411-16416.
92. Orr JC, Fabry VJ, Aumont O et al (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437: 681-686.
93. Pearson RG (2006) Climate change and the migration capacity of species. Trends Ecol Evol 21: 111-113.
94. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 12: 361-371.
95. Peck LS, Webb KE, Bailey DM (2004) Extreme sensitivity of biological function to temperature in Antarctic marine species. Funct Ecol 18: 625-630.
96. Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J et al (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 416: 626-629.
97. Phillips OL, Martinez RV, Arroyo L et al (2002) Increasing dominance of large lianas in Amazonian forests. Nature 418(6899): 770-774.
98. Pickering C, Good R, Green K (2004) Potential effects of global warming on the biota of the Australian Alps. Australian Greenhouse Office, Australian Government, Canberra, p 51.
99. Pounds JA, Bustamante MR, Coloma LA (2006) Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439: 161-167.
100. Preston BL (2006) Risk-based reanalysis of the effects of climate change on US cold-water habitat. Clim Change 76: 91-119.
101. Price J (2002) Climate change, birds and ecosystems-why should we care? In: Rapport DJ, Lasley WL, Rolston DE et al (eds) Managing for healthy ecosystems. Lewis, Boca Raton, pp 465.
102. Price JT, Root TL (2005) Potential impacts of climate change on neotropical migrants: management implications. In: Ralph CJ, Rich TD (eds) Bird conservation implementation and integration in the Americas. USDA Forest Service, Arcata, pp 1123-1128.
103. Raper SCB, Gregory JM, Osborn TJ (2001) Use of an upwelling diffusion energy balance climate model to simulate and diagnose A/OGCM results. Clim Dyn 17: 601-613.
104. Raven J, Caldeira K, Elderfield H et al (2005) Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Policy document 12/05, The Royal Society The Clyvedon Press Ltd, Cardiff, UK, p 68.
105. Root TL, Price JT, Hall HR et al (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60.
106. Rosentrater L (2005) 2° is too much! evidence and implications of dangerous climate change in the Arctic. WWF International Arctic Program, Oslo, p 74.
107. Rosenzweig C, Casassa G, Karoly DJ et al (2007) Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 79-131.
108. Rutherford MC, Midgley GF, Bond WJ et al (2000) Plant biodiversity: vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, p 59.
109. Schaphoff S, Lucht W, Gerten D, Sitch S, Cramer W, Prentice IC (2006) Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections. Clim Change 74: 97-122.
110. Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D et al (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427: 332-336.
111. Scholze M, Knorr W, Arnell NW et al (2006) A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103: 13116-13120.
112. Sekercioglu CH, Schneider SH, Fay JP et al (2008) Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conserv Biol 22: 140-150.
113. Sheppard CRC (2003) Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean. Nature 425: 294-297.
114. Siqueira MF, Peterson AT (2003) Consequences of global climate change for geographic distributions of cerrado tree species. Biota Neotrop 3: 1-14.
115. Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC et al (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob Change Biol 9: 161-185.
116. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
117. Sorenson LG, Goldberg R, Root TL et al (1998) Potential effects of global warming on waterfowl populations breeding in the Northern Great Plains. Clim Change 40: 343-369.
118. Still CJ, Foster PN, Schneider SH (1999) Simulating the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests. Nature 398: 608-610.
119. Symon C, Arris L, Heal B (eds) (2005) Arctic climate impact assessment (ACIA). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 1042.
120. Theurillat JP, Guisan A (2001) Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European alps: a review. Clim Change 50: 77-109.
121. Theurillat JP, Felber F, Geissler P et al (1998) Sensitivity of plant and soil ecosystems of the Alps to climate change. In: Cebon P, Dahinden U, Davies HC et al (eds) Views from the Alps: regional perspectives on climate change. MIT, Boston, pp 225-308.
122. Thomas CD, Williams SE, Cameron A et al (2004a) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.
123. Thomas CD, Williams SE, Cameron A et al (2004b) Biodiversity conservation: uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/effects of changes in climate and land use/climate change and extinction risk (reply). Nature 430: 34.
124. Thomas CD, Franco AMA, Hill JK (2006) Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming. Trends Ecol Evol 21: 415-416.
125. Thuiller W, Araujo MB, Pearson RG et al (2004) Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk. Nature 430: 35.
126. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araujo MB et al (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 102: 8245-8250.
127. Thuiller W, Broenniman O, Hughes G et al (2006) Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions. Glob Change Biol 12: 424-440.
128. van Vliet A, Leemans R (2006) Rapid species' responses to changes in climate require stringent climate protection targets. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovich N et al (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 135-141.
129. van Vuuren DP, Sala OE, Pereira HM (2006) The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios. Ecol Soc 11: 25-44.
130. Villers-Ruiz L, Trejo-Vazquez I (1998) Impacto del cambio climático en los bosques y áreas naturales protegidas de México (Impact of climatic change in forests and natural protected areas of Mexico). Interciencia 23: 10-19.
131. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P et al (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389-395.
132. Warren R (2006) Impacts of global climate change at different annual mean global temperature increases. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovich N et al (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 93131.
133. Williams SE, Bolitho EE, Fox S (2003) Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B Biol Sci 270: 1887-1892.
134. Williams JW, Jackson ST, Kutzbach JE (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104: 5738-5742.
135. Xenopoulos MA, Lodge DM, Alcamo J et al (2005) Scenarios of freshwater fish extinctions from climate change and water withdrawal. Glob Change Biol 11: 1557-1564.
136. Zickfield K, Knopf B, Petoukhov V et al (2005) Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change? Geophys Res Lett 32: L15707.
137. Zöckler C, Lysenko I (2000) Waterbirds on the edge-first circumpolar assessment of climate change impact on Arctic breeding water birds. WCMC Biodiversity Series No 11, UNEP and World Conservation Monitoring Centre (WCMC), Cambridge, UK, p 27.