-
1
-
-
0019556993
-
The hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses
-
Arkes, H.R., R.L Wortmann, P.D. Saville, and A.R. Harkness. (1981). The hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses. Journal of Applied Psychology, 66 (2), 252-254.
-
(1981)
Journal of Applied Psychology
, vol.66
, Issue.2
, pp. 252-254
-
-
Arkes, H.R.1
Wortmann, R.L.2
Saville, P.D.3
Harkness, A.R.4
-
2
-
-
56749096594
-
War of secrets: Eyes in the sky, ears to the wall, and still wanting
-
September 8, Sec. 4, 5
-
Bamford, J. (2002). War of secrets: Eyes in the sky, ears to the wall, and still wanting. New York Times, September 8, Sec. 4, 5.
-
(2002)
New York Times
-
-
Bamford, J.1
-
5
-
-
80053898461
-
-
Testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 111th Cong., 2d sess. (January 20, 2010). Available, [April 2010]
-
Blair, D., and M.E. Leiter. (2010). Intelligence Reform: The Lessons and Implications of the Christmas Day Attack. Testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 111th Cong., 2d sess. (January 20, 2010). Available: http://www. fas.org/irp/congress/2010_hr/012010blair.pdf [April 2010].
-
(2010)
Intelligence Reform: The Lessons and Implications of the Christmas Day Attack.
-
-
Blair, D.1
Leiter, M.E.2
-
6
-
-
85025389994
-
In one word: Not from experience
-
Brehmer, B. (1980). In one word: Not from experience. Acta Psychologica, 45 (1-3), 223-241.
-
(1980)
Acta Psychologica
, vol.45
, Issue.1-3
, pp. 223-241
-
-
Brehmer, B.1
-
7
-
-
85029184904
-
Quoted in "Review of Jet Bomb Plot Shows More Missed Clues." E. Lipton, E. Schmitt and M. Mazzetti
-
January 17, 2010. Available, [September 2010]
-
Brennan, J. (2010). Quoted in "Review of Jet Bomb Plot Shows More Missed Clues." E. Lipton, E. Schmitt and M. Mazzetti. New York Times. January 17, 2010. Available:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/18/us/18intel.html [September 2010].
-
(2010)
New York Times.
-
-
Brennan, J.1
-
8
-
-
85029175962
-
-
n.d, Available, [October 2010]
-
Central Intelligence Agency. (n.d.). Strategic Intent. Available: https://www.cia.gov/library/ publications/additional-publications/the-work-of-a-nation/strategic-intent.html [October 2010].
-
Strategic Intent.
-
-
-
9
-
-
85029166730
-
-
Available, [April 2010]
-
Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction: Report to the President of the United States, March 31, 2005. Available:http://www.gpoaccess.gov/wmd/pdf/full_wmd_report.pdf [April 2010].
-
Report to the President of the United States, March 31, 2005.
-
-
-
10
-
-
0012753057
-
-
Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office
-
Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the United States Intelligence Community. (1996). Preparing for the 21 st Century: An Appraisal of U.S. Intelligence. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
-
(1996)
Preparing for the 21 st Century: An Appraisal of U.S. Intelligence.
-
-
-
11
-
-
0023780033
-
Hindsight bias: An impediment to accurate probability estimation in clinicopathologic conferences
-
Dawson, N.V., H.R. Arkes, C. Siciliano, R. Blinkhorn, M. Lakshmanan, and M. Petrelli. (1988). Hindsight bias: An impediment to accurate probability estimation in clinicopathologic conferences. Medical Decision Making, 8, 259-264.
-
(1988)
Medical Decision Making
, vol.8
, pp. 259-264
-
-
Dawson, N.V.1
Arkes, H.R.2
Siciliano, C.3
Blinkhorn, R.4
Lakshmanan, M.5
Petrelli, M.6
-
12
-
-
0027207624
-
Hemodynamic assessment in the critically ill: Is physician confidence warranted?
-
Dawson, N.V., A.F. Connors, Jr., T. Speroff, A. Kemka, P. Shaw, and H.R. Arkes. (1993). Hemodynamic assessment in the critically ill: Is physician confidence warranted? Medical Decision Making, 13 , 258-266.
-
(1993)
Medical Decision Making
, vol.13
, pp. 258-266
-
-
Dawson, N.V.1
Connors, A.F.2
Speroff, T.3
Kemka, A.4
Shaw, P.5
Arkes, H.R.6
-
15
-
-
85029179697
-
-
Hearings, Part 1, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office
-
Reprinted in the U.S. Congress, 80th Congress, 1st session, Senate, Committee on Armed Services, National Defense Establishment (Unification of the Armed Services), Hearings, Part 1, 524-528. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
-
National Defense Establishment (Unification of the Armed Services)
, pp. 524-528
-
-
-
16
-
-
58149407822
-
Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity
-
Einhorn, H.J., and R.M. Hogarth. (1978). Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review, 85 , 395-416.
-
(1978)
Psychological Review
, vol.85
, pp. 395-416
-
-
Einhorn, H.J.1
Hogarth, R.M.2
-
17
-
-
85029141886
-
-
First of three Payne Lectures in the series "Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security." Available, December 2009
-
Fingar, T. (2009). Myths, Fears, and Expectations. First of three Payne Lectures in the series "Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence and National Security." Available: http:// iis-db.stanford.edu/evnts/5628/Payne_Lecture_No_1_Final-3-11-09.pdf [December 2009].
-
(2009)
Myths, Fears, and Expectations
-
-
Fingar, T.1
-
18
-
-
80052643602
-
Analysis in the U.S. intelligence community: Missions, masters, and methods
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Fingar, T. (2011). Analysis in the U.S. intelligence community: Missions, masters, and methods. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Fingar, T.1
-
19
-
-
33747927436
-
Hindsight ≠foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty
-
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299.
-
(1975)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
, vol.1
, Issue.3
, pp. 288-299
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
-
20
-
-
84903028871
-
Spy and counterspy
-
May 18, E17
-
Kennan, G.F. (1997). Spy and counterspy. New York Times. May 18, E17.
-
(1997)
New York Times
-
-
Kennan, G.F.1
-
22
-
-
84893396860
-
Effects of feedback intervention on performance: A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory
-
Kluger, A.N., and A. DeNisi. (1996). Effects of feedback intervention on performance: A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory. Psychological Bulletin, 119 (2), 254-284.
-
(1996)
Psychological Bulletin
, vol.119
, Issue.2
, pp. 254-284
-
-
Kluger, A.N.1
DeNisi, A.2
-
23
-
-
84948193503
-
Differentiation and integration in complex organizations
-
Lawrence, P.R., and J.W. Lorsch. (1967). Differentiation and integration in complex organizations. Administrative Science Quarterly, 12 , 1-47.
-
(1967)
Administrative Science Quarterly
, vol.12
, pp. 1-47
-
-
Lawrence, P.R.1
Lorsch, J.W.2
-
25
-
-
84889588446
-
Reexamining the distinction between open information and secrets
-
Available, [May 2010]
-
Mercado, S.C. (2005). Reexamining the distinction between open information and secrets. Studies in Intelligence, 49, 2. Available: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-studyof- intelligence/csi-publications/csistudies/studies/Vol49no2/reexamining_the_distinction_ 3.htm [May 2010].
-
(2005)
Studies in Intelligence
, vol.49
, pp. 2
-
-
Mercado, S.C.1
-
26
-
-
67349162333
-
-
New York: Cambridge University Press
-
Moore, D., D. Cain, G. Loewenstein, and M. Bazerman, eds. (2005). Conflicts of Interest. New York: Cambridge University Press, 263-269.
-
(2005)
Conflicts of Interest
, pp. 263-269
-
-
Moore, D.1
Cain, D.2
Loewenstein, G.3
Bazerman, M.4
-
28
-
-
8744240653
-
-
New York: W.W. Norton and Company, Inc. Available, [April 2010]
-
National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. (2004). The 9/11 Commission Report. New York: W.W. Norton and Company, Inc. Available: http://www. 9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf [April 2010].
-
(2004)
The 9/11 Commission Report
-
-
-
29
-
-
80052618022
-
-
Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
National Research Council. (2011). Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
-
32
-
-
79957632234
-
-
Available, [March 2010]
-
Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2009a). National Intelligence: A Consumer's Guide. Available: http://www.dni.gov/IC_Consumers_Guide_2009.pdf [March 2010].
-
(2009)
National Intelligence: A Consumer's Guide
-
-
-
35
-
-
85029162435
-
-
Associate Attorney General U.S. Department of Justice, Before The United States Senate Committee on The Judiciary Hearing Entitled "Helping State And Local Law Enforcement" Presented May 12, 2009. Available, July 2010]
-
Perrelli, T. (2009). Statement of Thomas Perrelli, Associate Attorney General U.S. Department of Justice, Before The United States Senate Committee on The Judiciary Hearing Entitled "Helping State And Local Law Enforcement" Presented May 12, 2009. Available: http:// www.ojp.usdoj.gov/newsroom/testimony/2009/perrelli_test_090512.pdf [July 2010].
-
(2009)
Statement of Thomas Perrelli
-
-
Perrelli, T.1
-
36
-
-
85029159261
-
-
Statement by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell Before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee. September 13, 2004. Washington, DC. Available, [April 2010]
-
Powell, C. (2004). Opening Remarks. Statement by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell Before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee. September 13, 2004. Washington, DC. Available: http://www.usembassy.it/file2004_09/alia/a4091302.htm [April 2010].
-
(2004)
Opening Remarks
-
-
Powell, C.1
-
38
-
-
79958271228
-
Integrating open sources into transnational threat assessments
-
In J.E. Sims and B. Gerber, eds, Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press
-
Sands, A. (2005). Integrating open sources into transnational threat assessments. In J.E. Sims and B. Gerber, eds., Transforming U.S. Intelligence. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
-
(2005)
Transforming U.S. Intelligence
-
-
Sands, A.1
-
39
-
-
0000260296
-
Analyzing the use of information in investment decision making: A methodological approach
-
Slovic, P., D. Fleissner, and W.S. Bauman. (1972). Analyzing the use of information in investment decision making: A methodological approach. Journal of Business, 45 (2), 283-301.
-
(1972)
Journal of Business
, vol.45
, Issue.2
, pp. 283-301
-
-
Slovic, P.1
Fleissner, D.2
Bauman, W.S.3
-
40
-
-
85014038882
-
Individual reasoning
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Spellman, B. (2011). Individual reasoning. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Spellman, B.1
-
42
-
-
85029143403
-
Open-source spying
-
December 3. Available, [July 2010]
-
Thompson, C. (2006). Open-source spying. The Times Magazine. New York Times. December 3. Available: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/03/magazine/03intelligence.html?ex =1322802000&en=46027e63d79046ce&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss [July 2010].
-
(2006)
The Times Magazine. New York Times
-
-
Thompson, C.1
-
47
-
-
85029164326
-
Implementing change: Organizational challenges. In National Research Council
-
Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Zegart, A. (2011). Implementing change: Organizational challenges. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Zegart, A.1
-
49
-
-
0005898845
-
Overconfidence in judgmental forecasting
-
In J.S. Armstrong, ed, Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers
-
Arkes, H.R. (2001). Overconfidence in judgmental forecasting. In J.S. Armstrong, ed., Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (pp. 495-516). Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
-
(2001)
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
, pp. 495-516
-
-
Arkes, H.R.1
-
50
-
-
0000464212
-
Eliminating the hindsight bias
-
Arkes, H.R., D. Faust, T.J. Guilmette, and K. Hart. (1988). Eliminating the hindsight bias. Journal of Applied Psychology, 73 (2), 305-307.
-
(1988)
Journal of Applied Psychology
, vol.73
, Issue.2
, pp. 305-307
-
-
Arkes, H.R.1
Faust, D.2
Guilmette, T.J.3
Hart, K.4
-
51
-
-
0141872909
-
Transactive memory in organizational groups: The effects of content, consensus, specialization, and accuracy on group performance
-
Austin, J.R. (2003). Transactive memory in organizational groups: The effects of content, consensus, specialization, and accuracy on group performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88 (5), 866-878.
-
(2003)
Journal of Applied Psychology
, vol.88
, Issue.5
, pp. 866-878
-
-
Austin, J.R.1
-
55
-
-
21844497186
-
Exploring the "Planning Fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times
-
Buehler, R., D. Griffin, and M. Ross. (1994). Exploring the "Planning Fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67 (3), 366-381.
-
(1994)
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, vol.67
, Issue.3
, pp. 366-381
-
-
Buehler, R.1
Griffin, D.2
Ross, M.3
-
56
-
-
14144256640
-
Conciliation, counterterrorism, and patterns of terrorist violence
-
Bueno de Mesquita, E. (2005). Conciliation, counterterrorism, and patterns of terrorist violence. International Organization, 59 , 145-176.
-
(2005)
International Organization
, vol.59
, pp. 145-176
-
-
Bueno de Mesquita, E.1
-
57
-
-
9544228424
-
The effectiveness of right heart catheterization in the initial care of critically ill patients
-
Connors, A., Jr., T. Speroff, N.V. Dawson, C. Thomas, F.E. Harrell, D. Wagner, N. Besbiens, L. Goldman, A.W. Wu, R.M. Califf, W.J. Fulkerson, H. Vidaillet, S. Broste, P. Bellamy, J. Lynn, and W.A. Knaus. (1996). The effectiveness of right heart catheterization in the initial care of critically ill patients. Journal of the American Medical Association, 276 (11), 889-897.
-
(1996)
Journal of the American Medical Association
, vol.276
, Issue.11
, pp. 889-897
-
-
Connors, A.1
Speroff, T.2
Dawson, N.V.3
Thomas, C.4
Harrell, F.E.5
Wagner, D.6
Besbiens, N.7
Goldman, L.8
Wu, A.W.9
Califf, R.M.10
Fulkerson, W.J.11
Vidaillet, H.12
Broste, S.13
Bellamy, P.14
Lynn, J.15
Knaus, W.A.16
-
58
-
-
0027207624
-
Hemodynamic assessment in managing the critically ill: Is physician confidence warranted?
-
Dawson, N.V., A.F. Connors, Jr., T. Speroff, A. Kemka, P. Shaw, and H.R. Arkes. (1993). Hemodynamic assessment in managing the critically ill: Is physician confidence warranted? Medical Decision Making, 13 (3), 258-266.
-
(1993)
Medical Decision Making
, vol.13
, Issue.3
, pp. 258-266
-
-
Dawson, N.V.1
Connors, A.F.2
Speroff, T.3
Kemka, A.4
Shaw, P.5
Arkes, H.R.6
-
59
-
-
85050784209
-
Selective perception: A note on the departmental identifications of executives
-
Dearborn, D.C., and H.A. Simon. (1958). Selective perception: A note on the departmental identifications of executives. Sociometry, 21 (2), 140-144.
-
(1958)
Sociometry
, vol.21
, Issue.2
, pp. 140-144
-
-
Dearborn, D.C.1
Simon, H.A.2
-
61
-
-
0035141209
-
Implementation of evidencebased medicine: Evaluation of the Promoting Action on Clinical Effectiveness Programme
-
Dopson, S., L. Locock, D. Chambers, and J. Gabbay. (2001). Implementation of evidencebased medicine: Evaluation of the Promoting Action on Clinical Effectiveness Programme. Journal of Health Services Research and Policy, 6(1), 23-31.
-
(2001)
Journal of Health Services Research and Policy
, vol.6
, Issue.1
, pp. 23-31
-
-
Dopson, S.1
Locock, L.2
Chambers, D.3
Gabbay, J.4
-
63
-
-
0002871842
-
Debiasing
-
In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds, New York: Cambridge University Press
-
Fischhoff, B. (1982). Debiasing. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (pp. 422-444). New York: Cambridge University Press.
-
(1982)
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
, pp. 422-444
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
-
64
-
-
0034168090
-
Perspective taking: Decreasing stereotype expression, stereotype accessibility and ingroup favoritism
-
Galinsky, A., and G.B. Moskowitz. (2000). Perspective taking: Decreasing stereotype expression, stereotype accessibility and ingroup favoritism. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78 (4), 708-724.
-
(2000)
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, vol.78
, Issue.4
, pp. 708-724
-
-
Galinsky, A.1
Moskowitz, G.B.2
-
66
-
-
78650295913
-
-
Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press
-
George, R.Z., and J.B. Bruce, eds. (2008). Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
-
(2008)
Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations
-
-
George, R.Z.1
Bruce, J.B.2
-
69
-
-
0023693624
-
Base rates of post-concussional symptoms
-
Gouvier, W.D., M. Uddo-Crane, and L.M. Brown. (1988). Base rates of post-concussional symptoms. Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology, 3(3), 273-278.
-
(1988)
Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology
, vol.3
, Issue.3
, pp. 273-278
-
-
Gouvier, W.D.1
Uddo-Crane, M.2
Brown, L.M.3
-
70
-
-
84881119327
-
Group processes in intelligence analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Hastie, R. (2011). Group processes in intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Hastie, R.1
-
72
-
-
0004114009
-
-
Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency
-
Heuer, R.J., Jr. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
-
(1999)
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
-
-
Heuer, R.J.1
-
75
-
-
0002731826
-
Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking
-
Kahneman, D., and D. Lovallo. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management Science, 39 (1), 17-31.
-
(1993)
Management Science
, vol.39
, Issue.1
, pp. 17-31
-
-
Kahneman, D.1
Lovallo, D.2
-
76
-
-
0000125529
-
Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures
-
Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. (1979). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. Management Science, 12 , 313-327.
-
(1979)
Management Science
, vol.12
, pp. 313-327
-
-
Kahneman, D.1
Tversky, A.2
-
80
-
-
18744368445
-
Sabotaging the peace: The politics of extremist violence
-
Kydd, A., and B.F Walter. (2002). Sabotaging the peace: The politics of extremist violence. International Organization, 56 (2), 263-296.
-
(2002)
International Organization
, vol.56
, Issue.2
, pp. 263-296
-
-
Kydd, A.1
Walter, B.F.2
-
82
-
-
85029174027
-
-
Paper presented at the Workshop on Field Evaluation and Cognitive Science-Based Methods and Tools for Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence. Washington, DC. September 22. Department of Criminology, Law and Society, George Mason University
-
Lum, C. (2009). Evidence-Based Practices in Criminal Justice. Paper presented at the Workshop on Field Evaluation and Cognitive Science-Based Methods and Tools for Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence. Washington, DC. September 22. Department of Criminology, Law and Society, George Mason University.
-
(2009)
Evidence-Based Practices in Criminal Justice
-
-
Lum, C.1
-
83
-
-
84899658627
-
-
Working Group on Intelligence Reform Series, No. 13. Washington, DC: Consortium for the Study of Intelligence
-
MacEachin, D.J. (1994). The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and Change in the CIA. Working Group on Intelligence Reform Series, No. 13. Washington, DC: Consortium for the Study of Intelligence.
-
(1994)
The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and Change in the CIA
-
-
MacEachin, D.J.1
-
86
-
-
85029176218
-
-
Paper presented at the meeting of the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analyses for National Security, Washington, DC. May 14. Available, [October 2010]
-
Mandel, D. (2009). Canadian Perspectives: Applied Behavioral Science in Support of Intelligence Analysis. Paper presented at the meeting of the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analyses for National Security, Washington, DC. May 14. Available: http://individual.utoronto.ca/mandel/nas2009.pdf [October 2010].
-
(2009)
Canadian Perspectives: Applied Behavioral Science in Support of Intelligence Analysis.
-
-
Mandel, D.1
-
89
-
-
84993775928
-
How can decision making be improved?
-
Milkman, K.L., D. Chugh, and M.H. Bazerman. (2009). How can decision making be improved? Perspectives on Psychological Science, 4,379-4,383.
-
(2009)
Perspectives on Psychological Science
, vol.4
-
-
Milkman, K.L.1
Chugh, D.2
Bazerman, M.H.3
-
90
-
-
0021537766
-
Impacts of feedback and experience on the quality of subjective probability forecasts: Comparison of results from the first and second years of the Zierikzee experiment
-
Murphy, A.H., and H. Daan. (1984). Impacts of feedback and experience on the quality of subjective probability forecasts: Comparison of results from the first and second years of the Zierikzee experiment. Monthly Weather Review, 112 (3), 413-423.
-
(1984)
Monthly Weather Review
, vol.112
, Issue.3
, pp. 413-423
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Daan, H.2
-
91
-
-
0041439164
-
-
Committee to Review the Scientific Evidence on the Polygraph. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences and Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
National Research Council. (2003). The Polygraph and Lie Detection. Committee to Review the Scientific Evidence on the Polygraph. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences and Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2003)
The Polygraph and Lie Detection
-
-
-
92
-
-
80052618022
-
-
Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
National Research Council. (2011). Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
-
93
-
-
84883932767
-
-
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
-
Page, S.E. (2007). The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
-
(2007)
The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies.
-
-
Page, S.E.1
-
95
-
-
84889298472
-
Expertise in judgment and decision making: A case for training intuitive decision skills
-
In D.J. Koehler and N. Harvey, eds, Malden, MA: Blackwell
-
Phillips, J.K., G. Klein, and W.R. Sieck. (2004). Expertise in judgment and decision making: A case for training intuitive decision skills. In D.J. Koehler and N. Harvey, eds., Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (pp. 297-315). Malden, MA: Blackwell.
-
(2004)
Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making
, pp. 297-315
-
-
Phillips, J.K.1
Klein, G.2
Sieck, W.R.3
-
97
-
-
85029187585
-
-
Paper presented at the Workshop on Field Evaluation of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences-Based Methods and Tools for Intelligence and Counterintelligence, National Research Council, Washington, DC. September 22. Haskins Laboratories
-
Rubin, P. (2009). Voice Stress Technologies. Paper presented at the Workshop on Field Evaluation of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences-Based Methods and Tools for Intelligence and Counterintelligence, National Research Council, Washington, DC. September 22. Haskins Laboratories.
-
(2009)
Voice Stress Technologies
-
-
Rubin, P.1
-
99
-
-
0003180222
-
The success and use of economic sanctions
-
Smith, A. (1995). The success and use of economic sanctions. International Interactions, 21(3), 229-245.
-
(1995)
International Interactions
, vol.21
, Issue.3
, pp. 229-245
-
-
Smith, A.1
-
100
-
-
85014038882
-
Individual reasoning
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Spellman, B. (2011). Individual reasoning. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Spellman, B.1
-
101
-
-
84996197026
-
Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions
-
Swets, J.A., R.M. Dawes, and J. Monahan. (2000). Psychological science can improve diagnostic decisions. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 1(1), 1-26.
-
(2000)
Psychological Science in the Public Interest
, vol.1
, Issue.1
, pp. 1-26
-
-
Swets, J.A.1
Dawes, R.M.2
Monahan, J.3
-
102
-
-
0005225130
-
Statistical versus clinical lie detection
-
Szucko, J.J., and B. Kleinmuntz. (1981). Statistical versus clinical lie detection. American Psychologist, 36 (5), 488-496.
-
(1981)
American Psychologist
, vol.36
, Issue.5
, pp. 488-496
-
-
Szucko, J.J.1
Kleinmuntz, B.2
-
109
-
-
0037815338
-
Empirical assessment of expertise
-
Weiss, D.J., and J. Shanteau. (2003). Empirical assessment of expertise. Human Factors, 45 (1), 104-116.
-
(2003)
Human Factors
, vol.45
, Issue.1
, pp. 104-116
-
-
Weiss, D.J.1
Shanteau, J.2
-
112
-
-
85029164326
-
Implementing change: Organizational challenges
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Zegart, A. (2011). Implementing change: Organizational challenges. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Zegart, A.1
-
113
-
-
84905015055
-
Intuitive theories of behavior as inputs to analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Arkes, H., and J. Kajdasz. (2011). Intuitive theories of behavior as inputs to analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Arkes, H.1
Kajdasz, J.2
-
114
-
-
46449127550
-
Economics-The promise of prediction markets
-
Arrow, K.J., R. Forsythe, M. Gorham, R. Hahn, R. Hanson, J.O. Ledyard, S. Levmore, R. Litan, P. Milgrom, F.D. Nelson, G.R. Neumann, M. Ottaviani, T.C. Schelling, R.J. Shiller, V.L. Smith, E. Snowberg, C.R. Sunstein, P.C. Tetlock, P.E. Tetlock, H.R. Varian, J. Wolfers, and E. Zitzewitz. (2008). Economics-The promise of prediction markets. Science, 320(5878), 877-878.
-
(2008)
Science
, vol.320
, Issue.5878
, pp. 877-878
-
-
Arrow, K.J.1
Forsythe, R.2
Gorham, M.3
Hahn, R.4
Hanson, R.5
Ledyard, J.O.6
Levmore, S.7
Litan, R.8
Milgrom, P.9
Nelson, F.D.10
Neumann, G.R.11
Ottaviani, M.12
Schelling, T.C.13
Shiller, R.J.14
Smith, V.L.15
Snowberg, E.16
Sunstein, C.R.17
Tetlock, P.C.18
Tetlock, P.E.19
Varian, H.R.20
Wolfers, J.21
Zitzewitz, E.22
more..
-
117
-
-
33751099532
-
Expert judgments of pandemic influenza
-
Bruine de Bruin, W., B. Fischhoff, L. Brilliant, and D. Caruso. (2006). Expert judgments of pandemic influenza. Global Public Health, 1(2), 178-193.
-
(2006)
Global Public Health
, vol.1
, Issue.2
, pp. 178-193
-
-
Bruine de Bruin, W.1
Fischhoff, B.2
Brilliant, L.3
Caruso, D.4
-
118
-
-
77957082246
-
Processing linguistic probabilities: General principles and empirical evidence
-
In J. Busemeyer, D.L. Medin, and R. Hastie, eds, New York: Academic Press
-
Budescu, D.V., and T.S. Wallsten. (1995). Processing linguistic probabilities: General principles and empirical evidence. In J. Busemeyer, D.L. Medin, and R. Hastie, eds., Decision Making from a Cognitive Perspective (pp. 275-318). New York: Academic Press.
-
(1995)
Decision Making from a Cognitive Perspective
, pp. 275-318
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
Wallsten, T.S.2
-
121
-
-
84871900931
-
Applications of game theory in support of intelligence analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2011). Applications of game theory in support of intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Bueno de Mesquita, B.1
-
122
-
-
61849168142
-
Modeling a presidential prediction market
-
Chen, M.K., J.E. Ingersoll, Jr., and E.H. Kaplan. (2008). Modeling a presidential prediction market. Management Science, 54 (8), 1,381-1,394.
-
(2008)
Management Science
, vol.54
, Issue.8
-
-
Chen, M.K.1
Ingersoll, J.E.2
Kaplan, E.H.3
-
123
-
-
79960582633
-
-
Available, [March 2010]
-
Cowgill, B. (2005). Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work. Available: http://googleblog.blogspot. com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html [March 2010].
-
(2005)
Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work
-
-
Cowgill, B.1
-
124
-
-
34548802475
-
A place for stories: Nature, history, and narrative
-
Cronon, W. (1992). A place for stories: Nature, history, and narrative. The Journal of American History, 78 (4), 1,347-1,376.
-
(1992)
The Journal of American History
, vol.78
, Issue.4
-
-
Cronon, W.1
-
125
-
-
0001948522
-
Prediction of the future versus an understanding of the past: A basic asymmetry
-
Dawes, R. (1993). Prediction of the future versus an understanding of the past: A basic asymmetry. American Journal of Psychology, 166 (1), 1-24.
-
(1993)
American Journal of Psychology
, vol.166
, Issue.1
, pp. 1-24
-
-
Dawes, R.1
-
126
-
-
27844592608
-
The ethical implications of Paul Meehl's work on comparing clinical versus actuarial prediction methods
-
Dawes, R. (2005). The ethical implications of Paul Meehl's work on comparing clinical versus actuarial prediction methods. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 61 (10), 1,245-1,255.
-
(2005)
Journal of Clinical Psychology
, vol.61
, Issue.10
-
-
Dawes, R.1
-
131
-
-
38249018727
-
Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases and the preference paradox
-
Erev, I., and B.L. Cohen. (1990). Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases and the preference paradox. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 45 , 1-18.
-
(1990)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.45
, pp. 1-18
-
-
Erev, I.1
Cohen, B.L.2
-
132
-
-
80052643602
-
Analysis in the U.S. intelligence community: Missions, masters, and methods
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Fingar, T. (2011). Analysis in the U.S. intelligence community: Missions, masters, and methods. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Fingar, T.1
-
133
-
-
33747927436
-
Hindsight ≠foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty
-
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299.
-
(1975)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
, vol.1
, Issue.3
, pp. 288-299
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
-
134
-
-
84925911213
-
Intuitive use of formal models. A comment on Morrison's "qualitative models in history."
-
Fischhoff, B. (1978). Intuitive use of formal models. A comment on Morrison's "qualitative models in history." History and Theory, 17 (2), 207-210.
-
(1978)
History and Theory
, vol.17
, Issue.2
, pp. 207-210
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
-
136
-
-
85019333409
-
Communicating about analysis. In National Research Council
-
Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Fischhoff, B. (2011). Communicating about analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
-
137
-
-
0034342599
-
Teen expectations for significant life events
-
Fischhoff, B., A. Parker, W. Bruine de Bruin, J. Downs, C. Palmgren, R.M. Dawes, and C. Manski. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64 (2), 189-205.
-
(2000)
Public Opinion Quarterly
, vol.64
, Issue.2
, pp. 189-205
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
Parker, A.2
Bruine de Bruin, W.3
Downs, J.4
Palmgren, C.5
Dawes, R.M.6
Manski, C.7
-
138
-
-
85029148277
-
Israel says tests on Iron Dome missile system have been a success
-
January 8. Available, [March 2010]
-
Frenkel, S. (2010). Israel says tests on Iron Dome missile system have been a success. The Times. January 8. Available: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/ article6980098.ece [March 2010].
-
(2010)
The Times
-
-
Frenkel, S.1
-
140
-
-
85029144129
-
-
Available, [March 2010]
-
Gambit. (2007). About Gambit. Available: http://gambit.sourceforge.net/index.html [March 2010].
-
(2007)
About Gambit
-
-
Gambit1
-
142
-
-
0004114009
-
-
Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency
-
Heuer, R.J., Jr. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
-
(1999)
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
-
-
Heuer, R.J.1
-
143
-
-
84873978084
-
-
Notes on a paper presented to the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, National Research Council, December 8, Washington, DC. Available, [September 2010]
-
Heuer, R.J., Jr. (2009). The Evolution of Structured Analytic Techniques. Notes on a paper presented to the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, National Research Council, December 8, Washington, DC. Available: http://www7.nationalacademies.org/bbcss/DNI_Heuer_Text. pdf [September 2010].
-
(2009)
The Evolution of Structured Analytic Techniques
-
-
Heuer, R.J.1
-
147
-
-
35348820216
-
Using forecasting markets to manage demand risk
-
Available, [March 2010]
-
Intel. (2007). Using forecasting markets to manage demand risk. Intel Technology Journal, 11(2). DOI: 10.1535/itj.1102.04. Available: http://www.intel.com/technology/itj/2007/ v11i2/4-forecasting/4-mechanisms.htm [March 2010].
-
(2007)
Intel Technology Journal
, vol.11
, Issue.2
-
-
-
148
-
-
84861206515
-
Operations research and intelligence analysis. In National Research Council
-
Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Kaplan, E. (2011). Operations research and intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Kaplan, E.1
-
149
-
-
30244499173
-
Words of estimative probability
-
Fall. Available, [April 2010]
-
Kent, S. (1964). Words of estimative probability. Studies in Intelligence, Fall. Available:https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/booksand- monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/ 6words.html [April 2010].
-
(1964)
Studies in Intelligence
-
-
Kent, S.1
-
152
-
-
85029185461
-
-
Presentation at the public workshop of the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, National Research Council, Washington, DC. May 15. Audio available, [November 2010]
-
Mandel, D. (2009). Applied Behavioral Sciences in Support of Intelligence Analysis. Presentation at the public workshop of the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, National Research Council, Washington, DC. May 15. Audio available: http://www7.nationalacademies.org/bbcss/DNI_Audio.html [November 2010].
-
(2009)
Applied Behavioral Sciences in Support of Intelligence Analysis.
-
-
Mandel, D.1
-
153
-
-
80052612401
-
Use of signal detection theory as a tool for enhancing performance and evaluating tradecraft in intelligence analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
McClelland, G. (2011). Use of signal detection theory as a tool for enhancing performance and evaluating tradecraft in intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
McClelland, G.1
-
155
-
-
41549102798
-
-
[June 2010]
-
National Intelligence Council. (2007a). Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. Available:http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf [June 2010].
-
(2007)
Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities.
-
-
-
156
-
-
56649090646
-
-
Available, [June 2010]
-
National Intelligence Council. (2007b). Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland. Available:http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20070717_release.pdf [June 2010].
-
(2007)
Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland
-
-
-
157
-
-
85029171139
-
-
Robert Pool, Rapporteur. Planning Committee on the Field Evaluation of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences-Based Methods and Tools for Intelligence and Counterintelligence. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
National Research Council. (2010). Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context: Workshop Summary. Robert Pool, Rapporteur. Planning Committee on the Field Evaluation of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences-Based Methods and Tools for Intelligence and Counterintelligence. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2010)
Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context: Workshop Summary
-
-
-
158
-
-
85016966585
-
-
Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons
-
O'Hagan, A., C.E. Buck, A. Daneshkhah, J.R. Eiser, P.H. Garthwaite, D.J. Jenkinson, J.E. Oakley, and T. Rakow. (2006). Uncertain Judgments: Eliciting Expert Probabilities. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons.
-
(2006)
Uncertain Judgments: Eliciting Expert Probabilities
-
-
O'Hagan, A.1
Buck, C.E.2
Daneshkhah, A.3
Eiser, J.R.4
Garthwaite, P.H.5
Jenkinson, D.J.6
Oakley, J.E.7
Rakow, T.8
-
160
-
-
85083199546
-
Bayesian analysis: Estimating the probability of Middle East conflict
-
In R.J. Heuer, Jr., ed, Boulder, CO: Westview Press
-
Schweitzer, N. (1978). Bayesian analysis: Estimating the probability of Middle East conflict. In R.J. Heuer, Jr., ed., Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence: The CIA Experience (pp. 11-30). Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
-
(1978)
Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence: The CIA Experience
, pp. 11-30
-
-
Schweitzer, N.1
-
161
-
-
85019640507
-
Qualitative analysis for the intelligence community
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Skinner, K. (2011). Qualitative analysis for the intelligence community. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Skinner, K.1
-
162
-
-
85014038882
-
Individual reasoning
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Spellman, B. (2011). Individual reasoning. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Spellman, B.1
-
163
-
-
0035251480
-
The public health consequences of screening patients for adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy
-
Tchetgen, E., E.H. Kaplan, and G.H. Friedland. (2001). The public health consequences of screening patients for adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 26 (2),118-129.
-
(2001)
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
, vol.26
, Issue.2
, pp. 118-129
-
-
Tchetgen, E.1
Kaplan, E.H.2
Friedland, G.H.3
-
168
-
-
33645928322
-
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
-
12200. Washington, DC: National Bureau of Economic Research
-
Wolfers, J., and E. Zitzewitz. (2006). Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12200. Washington, DC: National Bureau of Economic Research.
-
(2006)
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper
-
-
Wolfers, J.1
Zitzewitz, E.2
-
170
-
-
84962232007
-
Bayes' theorem for intelligence analysis
-
Zlotnick, J. (1972). Bayes' theorem for intelligence analysis. Studies in Intelligence, 16 (2), 43-52.
-
(1972)
Studies in Intelligence
, vol.16
, Issue.2
, pp. 43-52
-
-
Zlotnick, J.1
-
171
-
-
37149019605
-
-
Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Prentice Hall
-
Aguinis, H. (2007). Performance Management. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Prentice Hall.
-
(2007)
Performance Management
-
-
Aguinis, H.1
-
172
-
-
82255164151
-
Organizational learning and knowledge management
-
In S.W.J. Kozlowski, ed, New York:Oxford University Press
-
Argote, L. (2011). Organizational learning and knowledge management. In S.W.J. Kozlowski, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology. New York:Oxford University Press.
-
(2011)
The Oxford Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology
-
-
Argote, L.1
-
173
-
-
0032011409
-
On becoming a strategic partner: The role of human resources in gaining competitive advantage
-
Barney, J.B., and P.W. Wright. (1998). On becoming a strategic partner: The role of human resources in gaining competitive advantage. Human Resource Management, 37 (1), 31-46.
-
(1998)
Human Resource Management
, vol.37
, Issue.1
, pp. 31-46
-
-
Barney, J.B.1
Wright, P.W.2
-
174
-
-
0040020868
-
Incentives and motivation
-
In S.L. Rynes and B. Gerhart, eds, San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass
-
Bartol, K.M., and E.A. Locke. (2000). Incentives and motivation. In S.L. Rynes and B. Gerhart, eds., Compensation in Organizations: Current Research and Practice (pp. 104-147). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
-
(2000)
Compensation in Organizations: Current Research and Practice
, pp. 104-147
-
-
Bartol, K.M.1
Locke, E.A.2
-
175
-
-
50349089374
-
Current issues and future directions in simulation-based training in North America
-
Bell, B.S., A.M. Kanar, and S.W.J. Kozlowski. (2008). Current issues and future directions in simulation-based training in North America. International Journal of Human Resource Management, 19 (8), 1,416-1,434.
-
(2008)
International Journal of Human Resource Management
, vol.19
, Issue.8
-
-
Bell, B.S.1
Kanar, A.M.2
Kozlowski, S.W.J.3
-
176
-
-
84917162321
-
Synthetic learning environments: On developing a science of simulation, games, and virtual worlds for training
-
In S.W.J. Kozlowski and E. Salas, eds, New York: Routledge Academic
-
Cannon-Bowers, J., and C. Bowers. (2010). Synthetic learning environments: On developing a science of simulation, games, and virtual worlds for training. In S.W.J. Kozlowski and E. Salas, eds., Learning, Training, and Development in Organizations (pp. 229-260). New York: Routledge Academic.
-
(2010)
Learning, Training, and Development in Organizations
, pp. 229-260
-
-
Cannon-Bowers, J.1
Bowers, C.2
-
177
-
-
79954993483
-
Does human capital matter? A meta-analysis of the relationship between human capital and firm performance
-
Crook, T.R., S.Y. Todd, J.G. Combs, D.J. Woehr, and D.J. Ketchen. (2011). Does human capital matter? A meta-analysis of the relationship between human capital and firm performance. Journal of Applied Psychology.
-
(2011)
Journal of Applied Psychology
-
-
Crook, T.R.1
Todd, S.Y.2
Combs, J.G.3
Woehr, D.J.4
Ketchen, D.J.5
-
178
-
-
33749171714
-
Evaluative aspects of creative thought: Errors in appraising the implications of new ideas
-
Dailey, L., and M. Mumford. (2006). Evaluative aspects of creative thought: Errors in appraising the implications of new ideas. Creativity Research Journal, 18 (3), 367-384.
-
(2006)
Creativity Research Journal
, vol.18
, Issue.3
, pp. 367-384
-
-
Dailey, L.1
Mumford, M.2
-
180
-
-
77957003278
-
Balancing exploration and exploitation through structural design: The isolation of subgroups and organizational learning
-
Fang, C., J. Lee, and M.A. Schilling. (2010). Balancing exploration and exploitation through structural design: The isolation of subgroups and organizational learning Organization Science, 21 (3), 625-642.
-
(2010)
Organization Science
, vol.21
, Issue.3
, pp. 625-642
-
-
Fang, C.1
Lee, J.2
Schilling, M.A.3
-
181
-
-
80052643602
-
Analysis in the U.S. intelligence community: Missions, masters, and methods
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Fingar, T. (2011). Analysis in the U.S. intelligence community: Missions, masters, and methods. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Fingar, T.1
-
182
-
-
84881119327
-
Group processes in intelligence analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Hastie, R. (2011). Group processes in intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Hastie, R.1
-
183
-
-
58149205167
-
Hunter and Hunter (1984) revisited: Interview validity for entry-level jobs
-
Huffcutt, A.I., and W. Arthur, Jr. (1994). Hunter and Hunter (1984) revisited: Interview validity for entry-level jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 79 (2), 184-190.
-
(1994)
Journal of Applied Psychology
, vol.79
, Issue.2
, pp. 184-190
-
-
Huffcutt, A.I.1
Arthur, W.2
-
184
-
-
14544269898
-
Teams in organizations:From input-process-output models to IMOI models
-
Ilgen, D.R., J.R. Hollenbeck, M. Johnson, and D. Jundt. (2005). Teams in organizations:From input-process-output models to IMOI models. Annual Review of Psychology, 56 , 517-543.
-
(2005)
Annual Review of Psychology
, vol.56
, pp. 517-543
-
-
Ilgen, D.R.1
Hollenbeck, J.R.2
Johnson, M.3
Jundt, D.4
-
185
-
-
33750716854
-
Exploratory innovation, exploitative innovation, and performance: Effects of organizational antecedents and environmental moderators
-
Jansen, J.L.P., F.A.J. Van Den Bosch, and H.W. Volberda. (2006). Exploratory innovation, exploitative innovation, and performance: Effects of organizational antecedents and environmental moderators. Management Science, 52 (11), 1,661-1,674.
-
(2006)
Management Science
, vol.52
, Issue.11
-
-
Jansen, J.L.P.1
Van Den Bosch, F.A.J.2
Volberda, H.W.3
-
186
-
-
76449091117
-
Time is on my side: Time, general mental ability, human capital, and extrinsic career success
-
Judge, T.A., R. Klinger, and L. Simon. (2010). Time is on my side: Time, general mental ability, human capital, and extrinsic career success. Journal of Applied Psychology, 95 (1), 97-102.
-
(2010)
Journal of Applied Psychology
, vol.95
, Issue.1
, pp. 97-102
-
-
Judge, T.A.1
Klinger, R.2
Simon, L.3
-
187
-
-
59549105474
-
Information technology and organizational learning: an investigation of exploration and exploitation processes
-
Kane, G.C., and M. Alavi. (2007). Information technology and organizational learning: an investigation of exploration and exploitation processes. Organization Science, 18 (5), 796-812.
-
(2007)
Organization Science
, vol.18
, Issue.5
, pp. 796-812
-
-
Kane, G.C.1
Alavi, M.2
-
188
-
-
0016779859
-
On the folly of rewarding A, while hoping for B
-
Republished in 1995 in Academy of Management Executive, 9(1), 7-14
-
Kerr, S. (1975). On the folly of rewarding A, while hoping for B. Academy of Management Journal, 18 (4):769-783. Republished in 1995 in Academy of Management Executive, 9(1), 7-14.
-
(1975)
Academy of Management Journal
, vol.18
, Issue.4
, pp. 769-783
-
-
Kerr, S.1
-
189
-
-
84893396860
-
The effects of feedback interventions on performance:A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory
-
Kluger, A.N., and A. DeNisi. (1996). The effects of feedback interventions on performance:A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory. Psychological Bulletin, 119 (2), 254-284.
-
(1996)
Psychological Bulletin
, vol.119
, Issue.2
, pp. 254-284
-
-
Kluger, A.N.1
DeNisi, A.2
-
190
-
-
0000019591
-
Developing adaptive teams: A theory of compilation and performance across levels and time
-
In D.R. Ilgen and E.D. Pulakos, eds, San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass
-
Kozlowski, S.W.J., S.M. Gully, E.R. Nason, and E.M. Smith. (1999). Developing adaptive teams: A theory of compilation and performance across levels and time. In D.R. Ilgen and E.D. Pulakos, eds., The Changing Nature of Work Performance: Implications for Staffing, Personnel Actions, and Development (pp. 240-292). San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.
-
(1999)
The Changing Nature of Work Performance: Implications for Staffing, Personnel Actions, and Development
, pp. 240-292
-
-
Kozlowski, S.W.J.1
Gully, S.M.2
Nason, E.R.3
Smith, E.M.4
-
191
-
-
85029142304
-
Human resources and human capital: Acquiring, building, and sustaining an effective workforce
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Kozlowski, S. (2011). Human resources and human capital: Acquiring, building, and sustaining an effective workforce. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Kozlowski, S.1
-
195
-
-
80052612401
-
Use of signal detection theory as a tool for enhancing performance and evaluating tradecraft in intelligence analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
McClelland, G. (2011). Use of signal detection theory as a tool for enhancing performance and evaluating tradecraft in intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
McClelland, G.1
-
196
-
-
58149208432
-
The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis
-
McDaniel, M.A., D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt, and S.D. Maurer. (1994). The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 79 (4), 599-616.
-
(1994)
Journal of Applied Psychology
, vol.79
, Issue.4
, pp. 599-616
-
-
McDaniel, M.A.1
Whetzel, D.L.2
Schmidt, F.L.3
Maurer, S.D.4
-
197
-
-
34248594763
-
The use of knowledge for technological innovation within diversified firms
-
Miller, D.J., M.J. Fern, and L.B. Cardinal. (2007). The use of knowledge for technological innovation within diversified firms. Academy of Management Journal, 50(2), 308-326.
-
(2007)
Academy of Management Journal
, vol.50
, Issue.2
, pp. 308-326
-
-
Miller, D.J.1
Fern, M.J.2
Cardinal, L.B.3
-
199
-
-
0003750145
-
-
Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage
-
Murphy, K.R., and J.N. Cleveland. (1995). Understanding Performance Appraisal: Social, Organizational, and Goal-Based Perspectives. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
-
(1995)
Understanding Performance Appraisal: Social, Organizational, and Goal-Based Perspectives
-
-
Murphy, K.R.1
Cleveland, J.N.2
-
201
-
-
33750691632
-
Staffing in the 21st century: New challenges and strategic opportunities
-
Ployhart, R.E. (2006). Staffing in the 21st century: New challenges and strategic opportunities. Journal of Management, 32 (6), 868-897.
-
(2006)
Journal of Management
, vol.32
, Issue.6
, pp. 868-897
-
-
Ployhart, R.E.1
-
202
-
-
2442457187
-
Recruitment research in the twenty-first century
-
In W.C. Borman and D.R. Ilgen, eds, New York: John Wiley and Sons
-
Rynes, S.L., and D.M. Cable. (2003). Recruitment research in the twenty-first century. In W.C. Borman and D.R. Ilgen, eds., Handbook of Psychology: Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 12 , 55-76. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
-
(2003)
Handbook of Psychology: Industrial and Organizational Psychology
, vol.12
, pp. 55-76
-
-
Rynes, S.L.1
Cable, D.M.2
-
203
-
-
85029168353
-
Learning, training, and development in organizations
-
In S.W.J. Kozlowski, ed, New York: Oxford University Press
-
Salas, E., S.J. Weaver, and M.S. Porter. (2011). Learning, training, and development in organizations. In S.W.J. Kozlowski, ed., Oxford Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology. New York: Oxford University Press.
-
(2011)
Oxford Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology
-
-
Salas, E.1
Weaver, S.J.2
Porter, M.S.3
-
204
-
-
1642455819
-
General mental ability in the world of work: Occupational attainment and job performance: General intelligence, objectively defined and measured
-
Schmidt, F.L., and J. Hunter. (2004). General mental ability in the world of work: Occupational attainment and job performance: General intelligence, objectively defined and measured. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 86 (1), 162-173.
-
(2004)
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, vol.86
, Issue.1
, pp. 162-173
-
-
Schmidt, F.L.1
Hunter, J.2
-
206
-
-
80052644604
-
Structuring accountability systems in organizations: Key trade-offs and critical unknowns
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Tetlock, P.E., and B. Mellers. (2011). Structuring accountability systems in organizations: Key trade-offs and critical unknowns. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Tetlock, P.E.1
Mellers, B.2
-
208
-
-
0022820807
-
Detecting and identifying change: Additions versus deletions
-
Agnostinelli, G., S.J. Sherman, R.H. Fazio, and E.S. Hearst. (1989). Detecting and identifying change: Additions versus deletions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 12 (4), 445-454.
-
(1989)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
, vol.12
, Issue.4
, pp. 445-454
-
-
Agnostinelli, G.1
Sherman, S.J.2
Fazio, R.H.3
Hearst, E.S.4
-
209
-
-
0002776620
-
Recall of previously unrecallable information following a shift in perspective
-
Anderson, R.C., and J.W. Pichert. (1978). Recall of previously unrecallable information following a shift in perspective. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 17 (1), 1-12.
-
(1978)
Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior
, vol.17
, Issue.1
, pp. 1-12
-
-
Anderson, R.C.1
Pichert, J.W.2
-
211
-
-
84905015055
-
Intuitive theories of behavior as inputs to analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Arkes, H., and J. Kajdasz. (2011). Intuitive theories of behavior as inputs to analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Arkes, H.1
Kajdasz, J.2
-
213
-
-
0002186223
-
Some principles of memory schemata
-
In D.G. Bobrow, ed, New York: Academic Press
-
Bobrow, D.G., and D.A. Norman. (1975). Some principles of memory schemata. In D.G. Bobrow, ed., Representations and Understanding (pp. 131-149). New York: Academic Press.
-
(1975)
Representations and Understanding
, pp. 131-149
-
-
Bobrow, D.G.1
Norman, D.A.2
-
214
-
-
84929228957
-
Communication dilemmas in social networks: An experimental study
-
Bonacich, P. (1990). Communication dilemmas in social networks: An experimental study. American Sociological Review, 55 (3), 448-459.
-
(1990)
American Sociological Review
, vol.55
, Issue.3
, pp. 448-459
-
-
Bonacich, P.1
-
216
-
-
0032386290
-
Social values and social conflict in creating problem solving and categorization
-
Carnevale, P.J., and T.M. Probst. (1998). Social values and social conflict in creating problem solving and categorization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74 (5), 1,300-1,309.
-
(1998)
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
, vol.74
, Issue.5
-
-
Carnevale, P.J.1
Probst, T.M.2
-
217
-
-
57349119908
-
Connecting the dots within: Creative performance and identity integration
-
Cheng, C-Y., J. Sanchez-Burks, and F. Lee. (2008). Connecting the dots within: Creative performance and identity integration. Psychological Science, 19 (11), 1,178-1,184.
-
(2008)
Psychological Science
, vol.19
, Issue.11
-
-
Cheng, C.-Y.1
Sanchez-Burks, J.2
Lee, F.3
-
218
-
-
0001330619
-
Behavioral decision making and judgment
-
In G. Gilbert, S.T. Fiske, and R. Lindzey, eds, 4th ed, New York:Oxford University Press
-
Dawes, R.M. (1994). Behavioral decision making and judgment. In G. Gilbert, S.T. Fiske, and R. Lindzey, eds., The Handbook of Social Psychology. 4th ed. (pp. 497-548). New York:Oxford University Press.
-
(1994)
The Handbook of Social Psychology.
, pp. 497-548
-
-
Dawes, R.M.1
-
219
-
-
85050784209
-
Selective perception: A note on the departmental identification of executives
-
Dearborn, D.C., and H.A. Simon. (1958). Selective perception: A note on the departmental identification of executives. Sociometry, 21 (2), 140-144.
-
(1958)
Sociometry
, vol.21
, Issue.2
, pp. 140-144
-
-
Dearborn, D.C.1
Simon, H.A.2
-
220
-
-
0042829117
-
Task versus relationship conflict, team performance, and team member satisfaction: A meta-analysis
-
DeDreu, C.K.W., and L.R. Weingart. (2003). Task versus relationship conflict, team performance, and team member satisfaction: A meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88 (4), 741-749.
-
(2003)
Journal of Applied Psychology
, vol.88
, Issue.4
, pp. 741-749
-
-
DeDreu, C.K.W.1
Weingart, L.R.2
-
221
-
-
0000092431
-
Interpretive barriers to successful product innovation in large firms
-
Dougherty, D. (1992). Interpretive barriers to successful product innovation in large firms. Organization Science, 3(2), 179-202.
-
(1992)
Organization Science
, vol.3
, Issue.2
, pp. 179-202
-
-
Dougherty, D.1
-
222
-
-
0031182539
-
How management teams can have a good fight
-
Eisenhardt, K.M., J.L. Kahwajy, and J.L. Bourgeois III. (1997). How management teams can have a good fight. Harvard Business Review, 75 (4), 77-85.
-
(1997)
Harvard Business Review
, vol.75
, Issue.4
, pp. 77-85
-
-
Eisenhardt, K.M.1
Kahwajy, J.L.2
Bourgeois, J.L.3
-
223
-
-
33846517257
-
Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation
-
Fischhoff, B., P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein. (1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4(2), 330-344.
-
(1978)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
, vol.4
, Issue.2
, pp. 330-344
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
Slovic, P.2
Lichtenstein, S.3
-
226
-
-
0000648646
-
Subjective construal, social inference, and human misunderstanding
-
In M.P. Zanna, ed, San Diego, CA: Academic Press
-
Griffin, D.W., and L. Ross. (1991). Subjective construal, social inference, and human misunderstanding. In M.P. Zanna, ed., Advances in Experimental Social Psychology: Vol. 24 (pp. 319-359). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
-
(1991)
Advances in Experimental Social Psychology
, vol.24
, pp. 319-359
-
-
Griffin, D.W.1
Ross, L.2
-
227
-
-
10344228702
-
An analysis of conflict in decision making groups
-
Guetzkow, H., and J. Gyr. (1954). An analysis of conflict in decision making groups. Human Relations, 7, 367-382.
-
(1954)
Human Relations
, vol.7
, pp. 367-382
-
-
Guetzkow, H.1
Gyr, J.2
-
228
-
-
84881119327
-
Group processes in intelligence analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Hastie, R. (2011). Group processes in intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Hastie, R.1
-
229
-
-
0003062783
-
Understanding written problem instructions
-
In L.W. Gregg, ed, Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum
-
Hayes, J.R., and H.A. Simon. (1974). Understanding written problem instructions. In L.W. Gregg, ed., Cognition and Knowledge (pp. 167-200). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
-
(1974)
Cognition and Knowledge
, pp. 167-200
-
-
Hayes, J.R.1
Simon, H.A.2
-
230
-
-
0002782581
-
The social organization of distributed cognition
-
In L.B. Resnick, J.M. Levine, and S.D. Teasley, eds, Washington, DC: American Psychological Association
-
Hutchins, E. (1991). The social organization of distributed cognition. In L.B. Resnick, J.M. Levine, and S.D. Teasley, eds., Perspectives on Socially Shared Cognition (pp. 283-307). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
-
(1991)
Perspectives on Socially Shared Cognition
, pp. 283-307
-
-
Hutchins, E.1
-
231
-
-
0001793508
-
Intraorganizational networks: The micro side
-
In S. Wasserman and J. Galaskiewicz, eds, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc
-
Krackhardt, D., and D.J. Brass. (1994). Intraorganizational networks: The micro side. In S. Wasserman and J. Galaskiewicz, eds., Advances in Social Network Analysis: Research in the Social and Behavioral Sciences (pp. 207-229). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
-
(1994)
Advances in Social Network Analysis: Research in the Social and Behavioral Sciences
, pp. 207-229
-
-
Krackhardt, D.1
Brass, D.J.2
-
232
-
-
33644700357
-
A failure to communicate: 9/11 and the tragedy of the informational commons
-
Kramer, R. (2005). A failure to communicate: 9/11 and the tragedy of the informational commons. International Public Management Journal, 8(3), 397-416.
-
(2005)
International Public Management Journal
, vol.8
, Issue.3
, pp. 397-416
-
-
Kramer, R.1
-
233
-
-
43049102086
-
Multicultural experience enhances creativity: The when and how?
-
Leung, A.K., W.W. Maddux, A.D. Galinsky, and C. Chiu. (2008). Multicultural experience enhances creativity: The when and how? American Psychologist, 63 (3), 169-181.
-
(2008)
American Psychologist
, vol.63
, Issue.3
, pp. 169-181
-
-
Leung, A.K.1
Maddux, W.W.2
Galinsky, A.D.3
Chiu, C.4
-
234
-
-
0035586062
-
Cognitive divergence and shared mental models in software development project teams
-
Levesque, L.L., J.M. Wilson, and D.R. Wholey. (2001). Cognitive divergence and shared mental models in software development project teams. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 22 (SI), 135-144.
-
(2001)
Journal of Organizational Behavior
, vol.22
, pp. 135-144
-
-
Levesque, L.L.1
Wilson, J.M.2
Wholey, D.R.3
-
235
-
-
0038854293
-
Group versus individual training and group performance: The mediating role of transactive memory
-
Liang, D.W., R.L. Moreland, and L. Argote. (1995). Group versus individual training and group performance: The mediating role of transactive memory. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21 (4), 384-393.
-
(1995)
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin
, vol.21
, Issue.4
, pp. 384-393
-
-
Liang, D.W.1
Moreland, R.L.2
Argote, L.3
-
236
-
-
0002941732
-
Calibration of probabilities: State of the art to 1980
-
In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds, New York: Cambridge University Press
-
Lichtenstein, S., B. Fischhoff, and L.D. Phillips. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: State of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty:Heuristics and Biases (pp. 306-334). New York: Cambridge University Press.
-
(1982)
Judgment Under Uncertainty:Heuristics and Biases
, pp. 306-334
-
-
Lichtenstein, S.1
Fischhoff, B.2
Phillips, L.D.3
-
237
-
-
0002203810
-
Differential contribution of majority and minority influence processes
-
Nemeth, C.J. (1986). Differential contribution of majority and minority influence processes. Psychological Review, 93 (1), 10-20.
-
(1986)
Psychological Review
, vol.93
, Issue.1
, pp. 10-20
-
-
Nemeth, C.J.1
-
241
-
-
0000269136
-
Exploring the performance benefits of group training: Transactive memory or improved communication?
-
Moreland, R.L., and L. Myaskovsky. (2000). Exploring the performance benefits of group training: Transactive memory or improved communication? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 82 (1), 117-133.
-
(2000)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.82
, Issue.1
, pp. 117-133
-
-
Moreland, R.L.1
Myaskovsky, L.2
-
242
-
-
85029159272
-
-
ICPM 2007-200-2. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Intelligence Community Policy Memorandum Number 2007-200-2. Available, [April 2010]
-
Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2007). Preparing Intelligence to Meet the Intelligence Community's "Responsibility to Provide." ICPM 2007-200-2. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Intelligence Community Policy Memorandum Number 2007-200-2. Available: http://www.dni.gov/electronic_reading_room/ICPM%202007-200-2%20Responsibility%20to%20Provide.pdf [April 2010].
-
(2007)
Preparing Intelligence to Meet the Intelligence Community's "Responsibility to Provide."
-
-
-
243
-
-
85029145689
-
-
Multi-Agency/Multi-Disciplinary White Paper. Available, [April 2010]
-
O'Connor, J., E.J. Bienenstock, R.O. Briggs, C. Dodd, C. Hunt, K. Kiernan, J. McIntyre, R. Pherson, and T. Rieger, eds. (2009). Collaboration in the National Security Arena: Myths and Reality-What Science and Experience Can Contribute to Its Success. Multi-Agency/Multi-Disciplinary White Paper. Available: http://www.usna.edu/Users/math/wdj/teach/CollaborationWhitePaperJune2009.pdf [April 2010].
-
(2009)
Collaboration in the National Security Arena: Myths and Reality-What Science and Experience Can Contribute to Its Success.
-
-
O'Connor, J.1
Bienenstock, E.J.2
Briggs, R.O.3
Dodd, C.4
Hunt, C.5
Kiernan, K.6
McIntyre, J.7
Pherson, R.8
Rieger, T.9
-
244
-
-
0002643876
-
Information processing explanations of insight and related phenomena
-
In M. Keane and K. Gilhooly, eds, London, UK: Harvester-Wheatsheaf
-
Ohlsson, S. (1992). Information processing explanations of insight and related phenomena. In M. Keane and K. Gilhooly, eds., Advances in the Psychology of Thinking (Vol. 1, pp. 1-44) London, UK: Harvester-Wheatsheaf.
-
(1992)
Advances in the Psychology of Thinking
, vol.1
, pp. 1-44
-
-
Ohlsson, S.1
-
245
-
-
8144226990
-
-
Paper presented at the 2001 annual meeting of the Academy of Management, Washington, DC. Available, [October 2010]. Darden Graduate School of Business, University of Virginia
-
Sarasvathy, S.D. (2001). Effectual Reasoning in Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Existence and Bounds. Paper presented at the 2001 annual meeting of the Academy of Management, Washington, DC. Available: http://www.effectuation.org/Abstracts/AOM01.htm [October 2010]. Darden Graduate School of Business, University of Virginia.
-
(2001)
Effectual Reasoning in Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Existence and Bounds.
-
-
Sarasvathy, S.D.1
-
246
-
-
0034394879
-
Prior knowledge and the discovery of entrepreneurial opportunities
-
Shane, S. (2000). Prior knowledge and the discovery of entrepreneurial opportunities. Organization Science, 11 (4), 448-469.
-
(2000)
Organization Science
, vol.11
, Issue.4
, pp. 448-469
-
-
Shane, S.1
-
247
-
-
0032015175
-
How SmithKline Beecham makes better resource-allocation decisions
-
Sharpe, P., and T. Keelin. (1998). How SmithKline Beecham makes better resource-allocation decisions. Harvard Business Review, 76 (2), 45.
-
(1998)
Harvard Business Review
, vol.76
, Issue.2
, pp. 45
-
-
Sharpe, P.1
Keelin, T.2
-
248
-
-
84886486211
-
-
New Haven, CT: Yale University Press
-
Simon, H.A. (1979). Models of Thought. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
-
(1979)
Models of Thought.
-
-
Simon, H.A.1
-
250
-
-
80052644604
-
Structuring accountability systems in organizations: Key trade-offs and critical unknowns
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Tetlock, P.E., and B. Mellers. (2011). Structuring accountability systems in organizations: Key trade-offs and critical unknowns. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Tetlock, P.E.1
Mellers, B.2
-
251
-
-
85029167179
-
Social categorization and intergroup dynamics
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Tinsley, C. (2011). Social categorization and intergroup dynamics. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Tinsley, C.1
-
252
-
-
0002466081
-
Transactive memory: A contemporary analysis of the group mind
-
In B. Mullen and G.R. Goethals, eds, New York: Springer-Verlag
-
Wegner, D.M. (1986). Transactive memory: A contemporary analysis of the group mind. In B. Mullen and G.R. Goethals, eds., Theories of Group Behavior (pp. 185-208). New York: Springer-Verlag.
-
(1986)
Theories of Group Behavior
, pp. 185-208
-
-
Wegner, D.M.1
-
253
-
-
0002666126
-
Cognitive interdependence in close relationships
-
In W.J. Ickes, ed, New York: Springer-Verlag
-
Wegner, D.M., T. Giuliano, and P. Hertel. (1985). Cognitive interdependence in close relationships. In W.J. Ickes, ed., Compatible and Incompatible Relationships (pp. 253-276). New York: Springer-Verlag.
-
(1985)
Compatible and Incompatible Relationships
, pp. 253-276
-
-
Wegner, D.M.1
Giuliano, T.2
Hertel, P.3
-
254
-
-
14844363097
-
Demography and diversity in organizations: A review of 40 years of research
-
Williams, K.Y., and C.A.I. O'Reilly. (1998). Demography and diversity in organizations: A review of 40 years of research. Research in Organizational Behavior, 21 , 77-140.
-
(1998)
Research in Organizational Behavior
, vol.21
, pp. 77-140
-
-
Williams, K.Y.1
O'Reilly, C.A.I.2
-
257
-
-
84905015055
-
Intuitive theories of behavior as inputs to analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Arkes, H., and J. Kajdasz. (2011). Intuitive theories of behavior as inputs to analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Arkes, H.1
Kajdasz, J.2
-
259
-
-
84984517062
-
How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions
-
Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting, 1(3), 257-269.
-
(1982)
Journal of Forecasting
, vol.1
, Issue.3
, pp. 257-269
-
-
Beyth-Marom, R.1
-
260
-
-
84965932242
-
Back-translation for cross-cultural research
-
Brislin, R.W. (1970). Back-translation for cross-cultural research. Journal of Cross-Cultural Research, 1(3), 185-216.
-
(1970)
Journal of Cross-Cultural Research
, vol.1
, Issue.3
, pp. 185-216
-
-
Brislin, R.W.1
-
261
-
-
0004144860
-
-
reaffirmed 2002). Etobicoke, Ontario, Canada: Canadian Standards Association
-
Canadian Standards Association. (1997). Risk Management: Guideline for Decision Makers (reaffirmed 2002). Etobicoke, Ontario, Canada: Canadian Standards Association.
-
(1997)
Risk Management: Guideline for Decision Makers
-
-
-
263
-
-
22244490311
-
Measuring patient-centered communication in patient-physician consultations. Theoretical and practical issues
-
Epstein, R.M., P. Franks, K. Fiscellla, C.G. Shields, S.C. Meldrum, R.L. Kravitz, and P.R. Duberstein. (2008). Measuring patient-centered communication in patient-physician consultations. Theoretical and practical issues. Social Science and Medicine, 61 (7), 1,516-1,528.
-
(2008)
Social Science and Medicine
, vol.61
, Issue.7
-
-
Epstein, R.M.1
Franks, P.2
Fiscellla, K.3
Shields, C.G.4
Meldrum, S.C.5
Kravitz, R.L.6
Duberstein, P.R.7
-
264
-
-
38249018727
-
Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox
-
Erev, I., and B.L. Cohen. (1990). Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 45 (1), 1-18.
-
(1990)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.45
, Issue.1
, pp. 1-18
-
-
Erev, I.1
Cohen, B.L.2
-
266
-
-
77954897872
-
-
Available, [June 2010]
-
Food and Drug Administration. (2009). FDA's Strategic Plan for Risk Communication. Available: http://www.fda.gov/downloads/AboutFDA/.../Reports/UCM183683.pdf [June 2010].
-
(2009)
FDA's Strategic Plan for Risk Communication
-
-
-
268
-
-
0012591515
-
Risk perception and communication
-
In R. Detels, R. Beaglehole, M.A. Lansang, and M. Gulliford, eds, 5th ed, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press
-
Fischhoff, B. (2009). Risk perception and communication. In R. Detels, R. Beaglehole, M.A. Lansang, and M. Gulliford, eds., Oxford Textbook of Public Health. 5th ed. (pp. 940-952). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
-
(2009)
Oxford Textbook of Public Health.
, pp. 940-952
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
-
269
-
-
85019333409
-
Communicating about analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Fischhoff, B. (2011). Communicating about analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
-
273
-
-
0000534475
-
Logic and conversation
-
In P. Cole and J.L. Morgan, eds, New York: Academic Press
-
Grice, H.P. (1975). Logic and conversation. In P. Cole and J.L. Morgan, eds., Syntax and Semantics, Vol. 3: Speech Acts (pp. 133-168). New York: Academic Press.
-
(1975)
Syntax and Semantics, Vol. 3: Speech Acts
, pp. 133-168
-
-
Grice, H.P.1
-
274
-
-
84861206515
-
Operations research and intelligence analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press
-
Kaplan, E. (2011). Operations research and intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Kaplan, E.1
-
275
-
-
80052612401
-
Use of signal detection theory as a tool for enhancing performance and evaluating tradecraft in intelligence analysis
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
McClelland, G. (2011). Use of signal detection theory as a tool for enhancing performance and evaluating tradecraft in intelligence analysis. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
McClelland, G.1
-
279
-
-
0023486961
-
A general framework for forecast verification
-
Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler. (1987). A general framework for forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 115 (7), 1,330-1,338.
-
(1987)
Monthly Weather Review
, vol.115
, Issue.7
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
280
-
-
41549102798
-
-
Available, [June 2010]
-
National Intelligence Council. (2007). Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. Available:http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf [June 2010].
-
(2007)
Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities.
-
-
-
281
-
-
0004239573
-
-
Committee on Risk Perception and Communication. Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources and Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press
-
National Research Council. (1989). Improving Risk Communication. Committee on Risk Perception and Communication. Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources and Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
-
(1989)
Improving Risk Communication
-
-
-
282
-
-
0003762673
-
-
P.C. Stern and H. Feinberg, eds. Committee on Risk Characterization. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press
-
National Research Council. (1996). Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society. P.C. Stern and H. Feinberg, eds. Committee on Risk Characterization. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
-
(1996)
Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society
-
-
-
283
-
-
85016966585
-
-
Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons
-
O'Hagan, A., C.E. Buck, A. Daneshkhah, J.R. Eiser, P.H. Garthwaite, D.J. Jenkinson, J.E. Oakley, and T. Rakow. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons.
-
(2006)
Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities
-
-
O'Hagan, A.1
Buck, C.E.2
Daneshkhah, A.3
Eiser, J.R.4
Garthwaite, P.H.5
Jenkinson, D.J.6
Oakley, J.E.7
Rakow, T.8
-
284
-
-
35148853995
-
Communicating the uncertainty of harms and benefits of medical interventions
-
Politi, M.C., P.K.J. Han, and N. Col. (2007). Communicating the uncertainty of harms and benefits of medical interventions. Medical Decision Making, 27 , 681-695.
-
(2007)
Medical Decision Making
, vol.27
, pp. 681-695
-
-
Politi, M.C.1
Han, P.K.J.2
Col, N.3
-
286
-
-
85029143594
-
-
Available, [June 2010]
-
Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management. (1997). Available: http://www.riskworld.com/riskcommission/Default.html [June 2010].
-
(1997)
-
-
-
288
-
-
0041525059
-
Self reports: How the questions shape the answers
-
Schwarz, N. (1999). Self reports: How the questions shape the answers. American Psychologist, 54(2), 93-105.
-
(1999)
American Psychologist
, vol.54
, Issue.2
, pp. 93-105
-
-
Schwarz, N.1
-
289
-
-
85014038882
-
Individual reasoning
-
In National Research Council, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press
-
Spellman, B. (2011). Individual reasoning. In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B. Fischhoff and C. Chauvin, eds. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
-
(2011)
Intelligence Analysis:Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
-
-
Spellman, B.1
-
290
-
-
84903035283
-
-
New Haven, CT: Yale University Press
-
Thaler, R.H., and C.R. Sunstein. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
-
(2008)
Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
-
-
Thaler, R.H.1
Sunstein, C.R.2
-
292
-
-
0003596707
-
Scales for assessing perceptions of event probability: A validation study
-
Woloshin, S., L.M. Schwartz, S. Byram, B. Fischhoff, and H.G. Welch. (1998). Scales for assessing perceptions of event probability: A validation study. Medical Decision Making, 14 , 490-503.
-
(1998)
Medical Decision Making
, vol.14
, pp. 490-503
-
-
Woloshin, S.1
Schwartz, L.M.2
Byram, S.3
Fischhoff, B.4
Welch, H.G.5
-
293
-
-
84954620441
-
Applied cognitive and cognitive-applied psychology: The case of face recognition
-
In L.G. Nilsson, ed, Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum
-
Baddeley, A.D. (1979). Applied cognitive and cognitive-applied psychology: The case of face recognition. In L.G. Nilsson, ed., Perspectives on Memory Research (pp. 367-388). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
-
(1979)
Perspectives on Memory Research
, pp. 367-388
-
-
Baddeley, A.D.1
-
294
-
-
40149086503
-
Assessing adolescent decision-making competence
-
Fischhoff, B. (2008). Assessing adolescent decision-making competence. Developmental Review, 28 , 12-28.
-
(2008)
Developmental Review
, vol.28
, pp. 12-28
-
-
Fischhoff, B.1
-
295
-
-
0004114009
-
-
Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency
-
Heuer, R.J., Jr. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
-
(1999)
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
-
-
Heuer, R.J.1
-
296
-
-
85029176218
-
-
Paper presented at the meeting of the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analyses for National Security, Washington, DC. May 14. Available, [October 2010]
-
Mandel, D. (2009). Canadian Perspectives: Applied Behavioral Science in Support of Intelligence Analysis. Paper presented at the meeting of the Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analyses for National Security, Washington, DC. May 14. Available: http://individual.utoronto.ca/mandel/nas2009.pdf [October 2010].
-
(2009)
Canadian Perspectives: Applied Behavioral Science in Support of Intelligence Analysis.
-
-
Mandel, D.1
-
297
-
-
85029180954
-
-
Intelligence Community Directive Number 601 (Effective:May 16, 2006). Available, [April 2010]
-
Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2006). Human Capital Joint Intelligence Community Duty Assignments. Intelligence Community Directive Number 601 (Effective:May 16, 2006). Available: http://www.dni.gov/electronic_reading_room/ICD_601. pdf [April 2010].
-
(2006)
Human Capital Joint Intelligence Community Duty Assignments.
-
-
|