Economics: The promise of prediction markets

Science

Volumn 320, Issue 5878, 2008, Pages 877-878

  Arrow, Kenneth J ^a   Forsythe, Robert ^b   Gorham, Michael ^c   Hahn, Robert ^d   Hanson, Robin ^e   Ledyard, John O ^f   Levmore, Saul ^g   Litan, Robert ^h   Milgrom, Paul ^a   Nelson, Forrest D ⁱ   Neumann, George R ⁱ   Ottaviani, Marco ^j   Schelling, Thomas C ^k   Shiller, Robert J ^l   Smith, Vernon L ^m   Snowberg, Erik ⁿ   Sunstein, Cass R ^g   Tetlock, Paul C ^o   Tetlock, Philip E ^p   Varian, Hal R ^q   Wolfers, Justin ^r   Zitzewitz, Eric ^s   more..

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA   (United States)

^c ILLINOIS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^d AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE   (United States)

^e GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^f CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^g UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO   (United States)

^h EWING MARION KAUFFMAN FOUNDATION   (United States)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF IOWA   (United States)

^j NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^k UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^l YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^m CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

ⁿ STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^o YALE SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT   (United States)

^p UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^q UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^r UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

^s Dartmouth College   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMICS; GOVERNMENT RELATIONS; MARKET; PREDICTION; RESEARCH;

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT; HEALTH SERVICE; HUMAN; LEGAL ASPECT; MARKETING; PREDICTION AND FORECASTING; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SHORT SURVEY;

EID: 46449127550     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: 10959203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1157679     Document Type: Short Survey

References (19)

1. J. Berg, F. Nelson, T. Rietz, Int. J. Forecast., in press.
2. R. Hanson, IEEE Intell. Syst. 14, 16 (1999).
3. R. Hahn, P. Tetlock, Harvard J. Law Pub. Pol. 28, 213 (2005).
4. C. Sunstein, Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge (Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 2006).
5. E. Snowberg, J. Wolfers, E. Zitzewitz, Q. J. Econ., 122, 807 (2007).
6. R. Hanson, T. Ishikida, J. Ledyard, C. Polk, Proceedings of the ACM International Conference on Electronic Commerce, Pittsburgh, PA, 30 September to 3 October 2003 [Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), New York, 2003], p. 272.
7. P. M. Polgreen, F. Nelson, G. Neumann, Clin. Infect. Dis. 44, 272 (2007).
8. B. Cowgill, J. Wolfers, E. Zitzewitz, "Using prediction markets to track information flows: Evidence from Google," Dartmouth College (2008); www.bocowgill.com/GooglePredictionMarketPaper.pdf.
9. K. Arrow et al., "Statement on prediction markets," AEI-Brookings Joint Center Related Publication No. 07-11 (May 2007); available at Social Science Research Network (SSRN), http://ssrn.com/abstract=984584.
10. J. Wolfers, E. Zitzewitz, "Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities," Stanford Graduate School of Business (2005).
11. C. Manski, Econ. Lett. 91, 425 (2006).
12. C. Sunstein, Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge (Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 2006).
13. M. Ottaviani, P. N. Sørensen, J. Eur. Econ. Assoc. 5, 554 (2007).
14. P. Tetlock, "Liquidity and prediction market efficiency" (March 2008); available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=929916.
15. R. Hahn, P. Tetlock, J. Regul. Econ. 29, 265 (2006).
16. No-action letter from Andrea M. Corcoran, Director, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Division of Trading and Markets, to George R. Neumann, Professor of Economics, University of Iowa (5 February 1992); www.cftc.gov/files/foia/repfoia/foirf0503b002.pdf. 17. R. Shiller, Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 1993).
17. On May 1, 2008, the CFTC requested public comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of prediction markets. "Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Concept release on the appropriate regulatory treatment of event contracts" (May 2008); www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/ @lrfederalregister/documents/file/e8-9981a.pdf.
18. J. Wolfers, E. Zitzewitz, J. Econ. Perspect. 18, 107 (2004).
19. The views expressed here represent those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the institutions with which they are affiliated. Support provided by the Reg-Markets Center at AEI (www.reg-markets.org).