Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?

Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?

Volumn , Issue , 2009, Pages

  Tetlock, Philip E ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 84883984366     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Book

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219. G. Gigerenzer, "Fast and Frugal Heuristics," in Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, ed. D. Koehler and N. Harvey [Oxford: Blackwell, 2004]
220. H. R. Arkes and M. Rothbart, "Memory, Retrieval, and Contingency Judgments," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49 (1985): 598-606.
221. B. Fischhoff and R. Beyth-Marom, "Hypothesis Evaluation from a Bayesian Perspective," Psychological Review 90 (1983): 239-60.
222. L. Ross and D. Griffin, "Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding," in Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, vol. 24, ed. M. Zanna (New York: Academic Press, 1991), 319-59.
223. R. E. Nisbett and L. Ross, Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980)
224. L. D. Phillips and D. Edwards, "Conservatism in a Simple Probability Inference task," Journal of Experimental Psychology 54 (1966): 346-54.
225. A. W. Kruglanski and D. M. Webster, "Motivated Closing of the Mind: 'Seizing' and 'Freezing,' " Psychological Review 103 (1996): 263-68.
226. C. Lord, M. Lepper, and E. Preston, "Considering the Opposite: A Corrective Strategy for Social Judgement," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 46 (1984): 1254-66.
227. C. Lord, L. Ross, and M. Lepper, "Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 (1979): 2098-2109.
228. Z. Kunda, Social Cognition: Making Sense of People (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1999)
229. P. E. Tetlock, "Cognitive Structural Analysis of Political Rhetoric," in Political Psychology: A Reader, ed. S. Iyengar and W. J. McGuire (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1992), 380-407.
230. L. Bartels and J. Zaller, "Presidential Vote Models: A Recount," Political Science and Politics 34 (2001): 9-20.
231. C. Wlezien, "On Forecasting the Presidential Vote," Political Science and Politics 34 (2001): 25-32.
232. J. Campbell, "The Referendum That Didn't Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election," Political Science and Politics 34 (2001): 33-38.
233. R. Erikson, "The 2000 Presidential Election in Historical Perspective," Political Science Quarterly 116 (1) (2001): 29-52.
234. Robert Jervis, "The Future of International Politics: Will It Resemble the Past?" International Security 16 (1992): 39-73.
235. G. Almond and T. Genco, "Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of Politics," World Politics 29 (1977): 489-522.
236. D. Moynihan, Pandemonium (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993)
237. D. Kenny, Correlation and Causality (New York: Wiley-Interscience, 1979)
238. I. Lakatos, ed., Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1972), 9-101.
239. F. Suppe, The Structure of Scientific Theories (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1974)
240. W. J. McGuire, "A Contextualist Theory of Knowledge: Its Implications for Innovation and Reform in Psychological Research," Advances in Experimental and Social Psychology 16 (1983): 3-87.
241. Hawkins and R. Hastie, "Hindsight: Biased Judgment of Past Events after the Outcomes Are Known," Psychological Bulletin 107 (1990): 311-27.
242. J. Campbell and A. Tesser, "Motivational Interpretations of Hindsight Bias: An Individual Difference Analysis," Journal of Personality 51 (1983): 605-20.
243. O. E. Tykocinski, D. Pick, and D. Kedmi, "Retroactive Pessimism: A Different Kind of Hindsight Bias," European Journal of Social Psychology 32(4) (2002): 577-88.
244. E. R. May, Lessons of the Past: The Use and Misuses of History in American Foreign Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1973)
245. J. Fearon, "Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science," World Politics 43 (1991): 169-95, 474-84.
246. P. E. Tetlock and A. Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996)
247. N. J. Roese, "Counterfactual Thinking," Psychological Bulletin 121 (1997): 133-48.
248. A.J.P. Taylor, The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848-1918 (Oxford: Clarendon, 1954)
249. J. L. Gaddis, "International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War," International Security 17 (1992): 5-58.
250. Stephen F. Cohen, Alexander Rabinowitch, and Robert Sharlet, The Soviet Union Since Stalin (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1985)
251. N. J. Roese, "Counterfactual Thinking," Psychological Bulletin 121 (1997): 133-48.
252. P. E. Tetlock and P. Visser, "Thinking about Russia: Possible Pasts and Probable Futures," British Journal of Social Psychology 39 (2000): 173-96.
253. J. A. Vasquez, "The Realist Paradigm and Degenerative versus Progressive Research Programs: An Appraisal of Neotraditional Research on Waltz's Balancing Proposition," American Political Science Review 91 (1997): 899-913.
254. K. N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979)
255. S. Sagan and K. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (New York: W. W. Norton, 1995)
256. P. E. Tetlock and A. Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996)
257. J. Elster, Logic and Society: Contradictions and Possible Worlds (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978)
258. P. E. Tetlock, "Political Psychology or Politicized Psychology: Is the Road to Scientific Hell Paved with Good Moral Intentions?" Political Psychology 15 (1994): 509-30.
259. C. Lord, L. Ross, and M. Lepper, "Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 (1979): 2098-2109.
260. C. Y. Chiu, M. W. Morris, Y. Y. Hong, and T. Menon, "Motivated Cultural Cognition: The Impact of Implicit Cultural Theories on Dispositional Attributions Varies as a Function of Need for Closure," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2001): 247-59.
261. H. N. Garb, Studying the Clinician: Judgment Research and Psychological Assessment (Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 1998)
262. S. Hawkins and R. Hastie, "Hindsight: Biased Judgment of Past Events after the Outcomes Are Known," Psychological Bulletin 107 (1990): 311-27.
263. C. Lord, L. Ross, and M. Lopper, "Considering the Opposite: A Corrective Strategy for Social Judgement," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 47 (1984): 1231-43.
264. Timothy D. Wilson, Bella M. DePaulo, D. G. Mook, and K. G. Klaaren, "Scientists' Evaluations of Research: The Biasing Effects of the Importance of the Topic," Psychological Science 4 (September 1993): 322-25.
265. Suedfeld and Tetlock, "Individual Differences," G. Gigerenzer and P. M. Todd, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000)
266. R. E. Nisbett, H. Zukier, and R. Lemley, "The Dilution Effect: Nondiagnostic Information," Cognitive Psychology 13 (1981): 248-77.
267. P. E. Tetlock and R. Boettger, "Accountability: A Social Magnifier of the Dilution Effect," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 57 (1989): 388-98.
268. P. E. Tetlock and A. Tyler, "Winston Churchill's Cognitive and Rhetorical Style: The Debates over Nazi Intentions and Self-government for India," Political Psychology 17 (1996): 149-70.
269. P. E. Tetlock and R. Boettger, "Accountability Amplifies the Status Quo Effect When Change Creates Victims," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 7 (1994): 1-23.
270. Suedfeld and Tetlock, "Individual Differences"; G. Gigerenzer and P. M. Todd, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000)
271. B. M. Staw and J. Ross, "Commitment in an Experimenting Society: A Study of the Attribution of Leadership from Administrative Scenarios," Journal of Applied Psychology 65 (1980): 249-60.
272. A. Tversky and D. Kahneman. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297-323 (1992)
273. R. Jervis, "Representativeness in Foreign Policy Judgments," Political Psychology 7 (1986): 483-505.
274. L. Zadeh, "A Fuzzy-Set-Theoretic Interpretation of Linguistic Hedges," Journal of Cybernetics 2 (1972): 4-34.
275. C. Ragin, Fuzzy-Set Social Science (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000)
276. J. Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations (New York: Doubleday, 2004)
277. P. E. Tetlock, R. Peterson, and J. Berry, "Flattering and Unflattering Personality Portraits of Integratively Simple and Complex Managers," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 64 (1993): 500-511.
278. P. E. Tetlock, D. Armor, and R. Peterson, "The Slavery Debate in Antebellum America: Cognitive Style, Value Conflict, and the Limits of Compromise," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 66 (1994): 115-26.
279. R. Abelson, "Psychological Implication," in Theories of Cognitive Consistency: A Source Book ed. R. Abelson, E. Aronson, W. McGuire, T. Newcomb, M. Rosenberg, and P. Tannenbaum (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1968), 112-39.
280. U. Hoffrege, R. Hertwig, and G. Gigerenzer, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 26 (2000): 303-20.
281. C. F. Camerer and R. M. Hogarth, "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 19 (1999): 1-3, 7-42.
282. P. E. Tetlock and J. Lerner, "The Social Contingency Model: Identifying Empirical and Normative Boundary Conditions on the Error-and-Bias Portrait of Human Nature," in Dual Process Models in Social Psychology, ed. S. Chaiken and Y. Trope (New York: Guilford Press, 1999)
283. P. E. Tetlock and J. Kim, "Accountability and Overconfidence in a Personality Prediction Task," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 52 (1987): 700-709.
284. C. Anderson, "Inoculation and Counter-explanation: Debiasing Techniques in the Perseverance of Social Theories," Social Cognition 1 (1982): 126-139.
285. J. A. Ogilvy, P. Schwartz, and J. Flower, China's Futures (San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass, 2000)
286. A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, "Extensional vs. Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment," Psychological Review 90 (1983): 293-315.
287. P. E. Tetlock, "The Logic and Psycho-logic of Counterfactual Thought Experiments in the Rise-of-the West Debate," in Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios That Rewrite World History, ed. P. E. Tetlock, R. N. Lebow, and G. Parker (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2006)
288. M. C. Green and T. C. Brock, "The Role of Transportation in the Persuasiveness of Narratives," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 79(5) (2000): 701-21.
289. A. Tversky and C. Fox, "Weighting Risk and Uncertainty," Psychological Review 102(2) (1995): 269-83.
290. J. S. Carroll, "The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An Interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 14 (1978): 88-96.
291. L. Ross, M. R. Lepper, F. Strack, and J. Steinmetz, "Social Explanation and Social Expectation: Effects of Real and Hypothetical Explanations on Subjective Likelihood," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35 (1997): 817-29.
292. E. Hirt, F. Kardes, and K. Markman, "Activating a Mental-simulation Mindset through Generation of Alternatives: Implications for De-biasing in Related and Unrelated Domains," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 40 (2004): 374-83.
293. P. E. Tetlock, R. N. Lebow, and G. Parker, eds., Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios That Rewrite World History (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2006)
294. P. Novick, That Noble Dream: The Objectivity Question and the American Historical Profession (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988)
295. P. E. Tetlock and J. Lerner, "The Social Contingency Model: Identifying Empirical and Normative Boundary Conditions on the Error-and-Bias Portrait of Human Nature," in Dual Process Models in Social Psychology, ed. S. Chaiken and Y. Trope (New York: Guilford Press, 1999)
296. J. Wolfers and E. Zitzewitz, "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 [2004]: 107-26.
297. F. Suppe, The Structure of Scientific Theories (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1974)
298. J. Bruner, Actual Minds, Possible worlds (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995)
299. C. Roberts, The Logic of Historical Explanation (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1995)
300. L. Cederman, Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations Develop and Dissolve (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997)
301. G. Gigerenzer, "Dread Risk, September 11, and Fatal Traffic Accidents," Psychological Science 15 (2004): 286-87.
302. T. Amer, K. Hackenbrack, and M. Nelson, "Between Auditor Differences in the Interpretation of Probability Phrases," Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory 13 (1994): 126-36.
303. K. H. Teigen, "When Equal Chance-Good Chances: Verbal Probabilities and Equiprobability Effect," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 85 (2000): 77-108.
304. K. H. Teigen and W. Brun, "Ambiguous Probabilities: When Does p = 0.3 Reflect a Possibility, and When Does It Reflect a Doubt?" Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 13 (2000): 345-62.
305. K. H. Teigen and W. Brun, "Verbal Probabilities: A Question of Frame?" Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16 (2003): 53-72.
306. Richard A. Posner, Public Intellectuals: A Study of Decline: A Critical Analysis (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2001)
307. C. Heath, C. Bell, and E. Sternberg, "Emotional Selection in Memes: The Case of Urban Legends," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (2002): 1028-41.
308. P. E. Tetlock, "Cognitive Structural Analysis of Political Rhetoric: Methodological and Theoretical Issues," in Political Psychology: A Reader, ed. S. Iyengar and W. J. McGuire (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1992), 380-407.
309. C. F. Camerer and R. M. Hogarth, "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 19 (1999): 1-3, 7-42.
310. T. R. Tyler and H. J. Smith, "Social Justice and Social Movements," in The Handbook of Social Psychology, ed. D. T. Gilbert, S. Fiske, and G. Lindzey (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998)
311. S. Weber and P. E. Tetlock, "New Economy: The Pentagon's Plan for Futures Trading," New York Times, August 11, 2003, C3.
312. R. Thaler and W. Ziemba, "Anomalies: Pari-mutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives 2 [1988]: 161-74.
313. H. Wilensky, "The Professionalization of Everyone?" American Journal of Sociology 70 (1964): 137-58.
314. Daniel Bell, The Coming of Post-industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting (New York: Basic Books, 1976)
315. L. Ross and D. Griffin, "Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding," in Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 24, ed. M. Zanna (New York: Academic Press, 1991), 319-59.