Unskilled and unaware in the classroom: College students’ desired grades predict their biased grade predictions

Memory and Cognition

Volumn 44, Issue 7, 2016, Pages 1127-1137

  Serra, Michael J ^a   DeMarree, Kenneth G ^b  

^a TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO   (United States)

Author keywords

Metacognition; Overconfidence; Predictions of performance; Unskilled and unaware; Wishful thinking

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIOR; CASE REPORT; COLLEGE; HUMAN; MENTAL PERFORMANCE; METACOGNITION; PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE; PREDICTION; STUDENT; THINKING; ADULT; BODY WEIGHT; EDUCATION; FEMALE; MALE; UNIVERSITY; YOUNG ADULT;

ADULT; EDUCATIONAL MEASUREMENT; FEMALE; HUMANS; MALE; METACOGNITION; STUDENTS; THINNESS; UNIVERSITIES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84988420017     PISSN: 0090502X     EISSN: 15325946     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3758/s13421-016-0624-9     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Ackerman, P. L., Beier, M. E., & Bowen, K. R. (2002). What we really know about our abilities and our knowledge. Personality and Individual Differences, 33, 587–605. doi:10.1016/S0191-8869(01)00174-X
2. Ariel, R., & Dunlosky, J. (2011). The sensitivity of judgment-of-learning resolution to past test performance, new learning, and forgetting. Memory & Cognition, 39, 171–184. doi:10.3758/s13421-010-0002-y
3. Balcetis, E., & Dunning, D. A. (2006). See what you want to see: Motivational influences on visual perception. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 91, 612–625. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.91.4.612
4. Balcetis, E., & Dunning, D. (2010). Wishful seeing: More desired objects are seen as closer. Psychological Science, 21, 147–152. doi:10.1177/0956797609356283
5. Barden, J., & Petty, R. E. (2008). The mere perception of elaboration creates attitude certainty: Exploring the thoughtfulness heuristic. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 95, 489–509. doi:10.1037/a0012559
6. Billeter, D., Kalra, A., & Loewenstein, G. (2011). Underpredicting learning after initial experience with a product. Journal of Consumer Research, 37, 723–736. doi:10.1086/655862
7. Bjork, R. A., Dunlosky, J., & Kornell, N. (2013). Self-regulated learning: Beliefs, techniques, and illusions. Annual Review of Psychology, 64, 417–444. doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-113011-143823
8. Briñol, P., & DeMarree, K. G. (Eds.). (2012). Social metacognition. Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
9. Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (2002). Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 251–270). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
10. Burson, K. A., Larrick, R. P., & Klayman, J. (2006). Skilled or unskilled, but still unaware of it: How perceptions of difficulty drive miscalibration in relative comparisons. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 90, 60–77. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.90.1.60
11. Carpenter, S. K., Wilford, M. M., Kornell, N., & Mullaney, K. M. (2013). Appearances can be deceiving: Instructor fluency increases perceptions of learning without increasing actual learning. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 20, 1350–1356. doi:10.3758/s13423-013-0442-z
12. DeMarree, K. G., & Rios, K. (2014). Self-esteem and self-concept clarity: Exploring the role of desired self-esteem. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 50, 202–209. doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2013.10.003
13. DeMarree, K. G., Wheeler, S. C., Briñol, P., & Petty, R. E. (2014). Wanting other attitudes: Actual–desired attitude discrepancies predict feelings of ambivalence and ambivalence consequences. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 53, 5–18. doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2014.02.001
14. Dunlosky, J., & Metcalfe, J. (2009). Metacognition. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
15. Dunlosky, J., & Rawson, K. A. (2012). Overconfidence produces underachievement: Inaccurate self evaluations undermine students’ learning and retention. Learning and Instruction, 22, 271–280. doi:10.1016/j.learninstruc.2011.08.003
16. Dunlosky, J., Serra, M. J., Matvey, G., & Rawson, K. A. (2005). Second-order judgments about judgments of learning. Journal of General Psychology, 132, 335–346. doi:10.3200/GENP.132.4.335-346
17. Dunning, D., & Balcetis, E. (2013). Wishful seeing: How preferences shape visual perception. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 22, 33–37. doi:10.1177/0963721412463693
18. Dunning, D., Johnson, K., Ehrlinger, J., & Kruger, J. (2003). Why people fail to recognize their own incompetence. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 12, 83–87. doi:10.1111/1467-8721.01235
19. Ehrlinger, J., Johnson, K. L., Banner, M., Dunning, D. A., & Kruger, J. (2008). Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 105, 98–121. doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2007.05.002
20. England, B. D., & Serra, M. J. (2012). The contribution of anchoring and past-test performance to the underconfidence-with-practice effect. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 19, 715–722. doi:10.3758/s13423-012-0237-7
21. Erev, I., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519–527. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.101.3.519
22. Finn, B. (2008). Framing effects on metacognitive monitoring and control. Memory & Cognition, 36, 813–821. doi:10.3758/MC.36.4.813
23. Finn, B., & Metcalfe, J. (2007). The role of memory for past test in the underconfidence with practice effect. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 33, 238–244. doi:10.1037/0278-7393.33.1.238
24. Glenberg, A. M., & Epstein, W. (1987). Inexpert calibration of comprehension. Memory & Cognition, 15, 84–93. doi:10.3758/BF03197714
25. Griffin, T. D., Jee, B. D., & Wiley, J. (2009). The effects of domain knowledge on metacomprehension accuracy. Memory & Cognition, 37, 1001–1013. doi:10.3758/MC.37.7.1001
26. Grimes, P. W. (2002). The overconfident principles of economics student: An examination of a metacognitive skill. Journal of Economic Education, 33, 15–30. doi:10.1080/00220480209596121
27. Hacker, D. J., Bol, L., & Bahbahani, K. (2008). Explaining calibration accuracy in classroom contexts: the effects of incentives, reflection, and explanatory style. Metacognition and Learning, 3, 101–121. doi:10.1007/s11409-008-9021-5
28. Händel, M., & Fritzsche, E. S. (2016). Unskilled but subjectively aware: Metacognitive monitoring ability and respective awareness in low-performing students. Memory & Cognition, 44, 229–241. doi:10.3758/s13421-015-0552-0
29. Hartwig, M. K., & Dunlosky, J. (2014). The contribution of judgment scale to the unskilled-and-unaware phenomenon: How evaluating others can exaggerate over- (and under-) confidence. Memory & Cognition, 42, 164–173. doi:10.3758/s13421-013-0351-4
30. Klayman, J., Soll, J. B., González-Vallejo, C., & Barlas, S. (1999). Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 216–247. doi:10.1006/obhd.1999.2847
31. Koriat, A. (1997). Monitoring one’s own knowledge during study: A cue-utilization approach to judgments of learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 126, 349–370. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.126.4.349
32. Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1980). Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107–118. doi:10.1037/0278-7393.6.2.107
33. Kornell, N., & Bjork, R. A. (2008). Optimising self-regulated study: The benefits—and costs—of dropping flashcards. Memory, 16, 125–136. doi:10.1080/09658210701763899
34. Kornell, N., & Metcalfe, J. (2006). Study efficacy and the region of proximal learning framework. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 32, 609–622. doi:10.1037/0278-7393.32.3.609
35. Krueger, J., & Mueller, R. A. (2002). Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82, 180–188. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.82.2.180
36. Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77, 1121–1134. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121
37. Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (2002). Unskilled and unaware—but why? A reply to Krueger and Mueller. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82, 189–192. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.82.2.189
38. Lipko, A. R., Dunlosky, J., & Merriman, W. E. (2009). Persistent overconfidence despite practice: The role of task experience in preschoolers’ recall predictions. Journal of Experimental Child Psychology, 103, 152–166. doi:10.1016/j.jecp.2008.10.002
39. Maki, R. H. (1998). Test predictions over text material. In D. J. Hacker, J. Dunlosky, & A. C. Graesser (Eds.), Metacognition in theory and practice (pp. 117–144). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
40. Metcalfe, J., & Finn, B. (2008). Evidence that judgments of learning are causally related to study choice. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 15, 174–179. doi:10.3758/PBR.15.1.174
41. Miller, T. M., & Geraci, L. (2011a). Training metacognition in the classroom: The influence of incentives and feedback on exam predictions. Metacognition and Learning, 6, 303–314. doi:10.1007/s11409-011-9083-7
42. Miller, T. M., & Geraci, L. (2011b). Unskilled but aware: Reinterpreting overconfidence in low-performing students. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 37, 502–506. doi:10.1037/a0021802
43. Nelson, T. O., & Narens, L. (1990). Metamemory: A theoretical framework and some new findings. In G. H. Bower (Ed.), The psychology of learning and motivation (pp. 125–173). New York, NY: Academic Press.
44. Scheck, P., Meeter, M., & Nelson, T. O. (2004). Anchoring effects in the absolute accuracy of immediate versus delayed judgments of learning. Journal of Memory and Language, 51, 71–79. doi:10.1016/j.jml.2004.03.004
45. Schneider, W. (1998). Performance prediction in young children: Effects of skill, metacognition and wishful thinking. Developmental Science, 1, 291–297. doi:10.1111/1467-7687.00044
46. Serra, M. J., Dunlosky, J., & Hertzog, C. (2008). Do older adults show less confidence in their monitoring of learning? Experimental Aging Research, 34, 379–391. doi:10.1080/03610730802271898
47. Serra, M. J., & England, B. D. (2012). Magnitude and accuracy differences between judgments of remembering and forgetting. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 65, 2231–2257. doi:10.1080/17470218.2012.685081
48. Serra, M. J., & Metcalfe, J. (2009). Effective implementation of metacognition. In D. J. Hacker, J. Dunlosky, & A. C. Graesser (Eds.), Handbook of metacognition and education (pp. 278–298). New York, NY: Routledge.
49. Shanks, L. L., & Serra, M. J. (2014). Domain familiarity as a cue for judgments of learning. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 445–453. doi:10.3758/s13423-013-0513-1
50. Soderstrom, N. C., & McCabe, D. P. (2011). The interplay between value and relatedness as bases for metacognitive monitoring and control: Evidence for agenda-based monitoring. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 37, 1236–1242. doi:10.1037/a0023548
51. Stinebrickner, R., & Stinebrickner, T. R. (2014). A major in science? initial beliefs and final outcomes for college major and dropout. Review of Economic Studies, 81, 426–472. doi:10.1093/restud/rdt025
52. Stipek, D. J., Roberts, T. A., & Sanborn, M. E. (1984). Preschool-age children’s performance expectations for themselves and another child as a function of the incentive value of success and the salience of past performance. Child Development, 55, 1983–1989. doi:10.2307/1129773
53. Tauber, S. K., & Rhodes, M. G. (2012). Multiple bases for young and older adults’ judgments-of-learning (JOLs) in multitrial learning. Psychology and Aging, 27, 474–483. doi:10.1037/a0025246
54. Wegener, D. T., Petty, R. E., Blankenship, K. L., & Detweiler-Bedell, B. (2010). Elaboration and numerical anchoring: Implications of attitude theories for consumer judgment and decision making. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 20, 5–16. doi:10.1016/j.jcps.2009.12.003
55. Willard, G., & Gramzow, R. H. (2009). Beyond oversights, lies, and pies in the sky: Exaggeration as goal projection. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 35, 477–492. doi:10.1177/0146167208329631
56. Winne, P. H., & Jamieson-Noel, D. (2002). Exploring students’ calibration of self reports about study tactics and achievement. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 27, 551–572. doi:10.1016/S0361-476X(02)00006-1