메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 142, Issue 694, 2016, Pages 147-159

Improved stochastic physics schemes for global weather and climate models

Author keywords

Climate modelling; Ensemble prediction; Stochastic physics; Tropical biases

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; BALLOONS; BUDGET CONTROL; KINETIC ENERGY; KINETICS; STOCHASTIC MODELS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; TROPICS;

EID: 84957848216     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2640     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (67)

References (68)
  • 2
    • 45149100332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model
    • Berner J, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN, Shutts G, Weisheimer A. 2008. Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. 366: 2559-2577.
    • (2008) Philos. Trans. R. Soc , vol.366 , pp. 2559-2577
    • Berner, J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Palmer, T.N.3    Shutts, G.4    Weisheimer, A.5
  • 3
    • 69849107882 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Berner J, Shutts GJ, Leutbecher M, Palmer TN. 2009. A spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. J. Atmos. Sci. 66: 603-626.
    • (2009) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.66 , pp. 603-626
    • Berner, J.1    Shutts, G.J.2    Leutbecher, M.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 4
    • 79954486545 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Stochastic versus multiphysics representations
    • Berner J, Ha S-Y, Hacker JP, Fournier A, Snyder C. 2011. Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Stochastic versus multiphysics representations. Mon. Weather Rev. 139: 1972-1995.
    • (2011) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.139 , pp. 1972-1995
    • Berner, J.1    Ha, S.-Y.2    Hacker, J.P.3    Fournier, A.4    Snyder, C.5
  • 5
    • 84862195046 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Systematic model error: The impact of increased horizontal resolution versus improved stochastic and deterministic parameterizations
    • Berner J, Jung T, Palmer TN. 2012. Systematic model error: The impact of increased horizontal resolution versus improved stochastic and deterministic parameterizations. J. Clim. 25: 4946-4962.
    • (2012) J. Clim , vol.25 , pp. 4946-4962
    • Berner, J.1    Jung, T.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 7
    • 69549083390 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The local ETKF and SKEB: Upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system
    • Bowler NE, Arribas A, Beare SE, Mylne KR, Shutts GJ. 2009. The local ETKF and SKEB: Upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135: 767-776.
    • (2009) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.135 , pp. 767-776
    • Bowler, N.E.1    Arribas, A.2    Beare, S.E.3    Mylne, K.R.4    Shutts, G.J.5
  • 9
    • 84922781664 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM general circulation model
    • Bush SJ, Turner AG, Woolnough SJ, Martin GM, Klingaman NP. 2014. The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM general circulation model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141: 311-326, doi: 10.1002/qj.2371.
    • (2014) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.141 , pp. 311-326
    • Bush, S.J.1    Turner, A.G.2    Woolnough, S.J.3    Martin, G.M.4    Klingaman, N.P.5
  • 11
    • 84943393130 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic and perturbed parameter representations of model uncertainty in convection parameterization
    • Christensen HM, Moroz IM, Palmer TN. 2015. Stochastic and perturbed parameter representations of model uncertainty in convection parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci. 72: 2525-2544.
    • (2015) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.72 , pp. 2525-2544
    • Christensen, H.M.1    Moroz, I.M.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 13
    • 33747888065 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fluctuations in an equilibrium convective ensemble. Part I: Theoretical formulation
    • Craig GC, Cohen BG. 2006. Fluctuations in an equilibrium convective ensemble. Part I: Theoretical formulation. J. Atmos. Sci. 63: 1996-2004.
    • (2006) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.63 , pp. 1996-2004
    • Craig, G.C.1    Cohen, B.G.2
  • 15
    • 84939895712 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulating weather regimes: Impact of model resolution and stochastic parametrisation
    • Dawson A, Palmer TN. 2015. Simulating weather regimes: Impact of model resolution and stochastic parametrisation. Clim. Dyn. 44: 2177-2193.
    • (2015) Clim. Dyn , vol.44 , pp. 2177-2193
    • Dawson, A.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 18
    • 80051819345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explicitly stochastic parameterization of nonorographic gravity wave drag
    • Eckermann SD. 2011. Explicitly stochastic parameterization of nonorographic gravity wave drag. J. Atmos. Sci. 68: 1749-1765.
    • (2011) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.68 , pp. 1749-1765
    • Eckermann, S.D.1
  • 19
    • 77955570957 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems
    • Froude LSR. 2010. TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems. Weather and Forecasting 25: 819-836.
    • (2010) Weather and Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 819-836
    • Froude, L.S.R.1
  • 20
    • 79959720711 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems
    • Froude LSR. 2011. TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems. Weather and Forecasting 26: 388-398.
    • (2011) Weather and Forecasting , vol.26 , pp. 388-398
    • Froude, L.S.R.1
  • 21
    • 33847361093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system
    • Froude LSR, Bengtsson L, Hodges KI. 2007. The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system. Mon. Weather Rev. 135: 315-333.
    • (2007) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.135 , pp. 315-333
    • Froude, L.S.R.1    Bengtsson, L.2    Hodges, K.I.3
  • 23
    • 33847064241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mechanisms of midlatitude cross-tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach
    • Gray SL. 2006. Mechanisms of midlatitude cross-tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach. J. Geophys. Res. 111: D17113, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006259.
    • (2006) J. Geophys. Res , vol.111 , pp. D17113
    • Gray, S.L.1
  • 24
    • 77956890307 scopus 로고
    • On blocking rules for the bootstrap with dependent data
    • Hall P, Horowitz JL, Jing BY. 1995. On blocking rules for the bootstrap with dependent data. Biometrika 82: 561-574.
    • (1995) Biometrika , vol.82 , pp. 561-574
    • Hall, P.1    Horowitz, J.L.2    Jing, B.Y.3
  • 26
    • 0028572982 scopus 로고
    • A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data
    • Hodges KI. 1994. A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data. Mon. Weather Rev. 122: 2573-2586.
    • (1994) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.122 , pp. 2573-2586
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 27
    • 0000461755 scopus 로고
    • Feature tracking on the unit sphere
    • Hodges KI. 1995. Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Weather Rev. 123: 3458-3465.
    • (1995) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.123 , pp. 3458-3465
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 28
    • 0000037302 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spherical nonparametric estimators applied to the UGAMP model integration for AMIP
    • Hodges KI. 1996. Spherical nonparametric estimators applied to the UGAMP model integration for AMIP. Mon. Weather Rev. 124: 2914-2932.
    • (1996) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.124 , pp. 2914-2932
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 29
    • 0036326746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks
    • Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI. 2002. New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 59: 1041-1061.
    • (2002) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.59 , pp. 1041-1061
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    Hodges, K.I.2
  • 30
    • 31544445484 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of a stochastic parameterization on the frequency of occurrence of North Pacific weather regimes in the ECMWF model
    • Jung T, Palmer TN, Shutts GJ. 2005. Influence of a stochastic parameterization on the frequency of occurrence of North Pacific weather regimes in the ECMWF model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L23811, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024248.
    • (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.32 , pp. L23811
    • Jung, T.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Shutts, G.J.3
  • 31
    • 77954474232 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diagnosing the origin of extended-range forecast errors
    • Jung T, Miller MJ, Palmer TN. 2010. Diagnosing the origin of extended-range forecast errors. Mon. Weather Rev. 138: 2434-2446.
    • (2010) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.138 , pp. 2434-2446
    • Jung, T.1    Miller, M.J.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 32
    • 77954694843 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A stochastic multicloud model for tropical convection
    • Khouider B, Biello J, Majda A. 2010. A stochastic multicloud model for tropical convection. Commun. Math. Sci. 8: 187-216.
    • (2010) Commun. Math. Sci , vol.8 , pp. 187-216
    • Khouider, B.1    Biello, J.2    Majda, A.3
  • 34
    • 84871629867 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of perturbation methods in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system on tropical cyclone forecasts
    • Lang STK, Leutbecher M, Jones SC. 2012. Impact of perturbation methods in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system on tropical cyclone forecasts. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 2030-2046.
    • (2012) Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.138 , pp. 2030-2046
    • Lang, S.T.K.1    Leutbecher, M.2    Jones, S.C.3
  • 35
    • 0024194194 scopus 로고
    • A quantitative analysis of the dissipation inherent in semi-Lagrangian advection
    • McCalpin JD. 1988. A quantitative analysis of the dissipation inherent in semi-Lagrangian advection. Mon. Weather Rev. 116: 2330-2336.
    • (1988) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.116 , pp. 2330-2336
    • McCalpin, J.D.1
  • 37
    • 84862180868 scopus 로고
    • A climatology of atmosphere wave number spectra of wind and temperature observed by commercial aircraft
    • Nastrom GD, Gage KS. 1985. A climatology of atmosphere wave number spectra of wind and temperature observed by commercial aircraft. J. Atmos. Sci. 43: 857-870.
    • (1985) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.43 , pp. 857-870
    • Nastrom, G.D.1    Gage, K.S.2
  • 38
    • 60749085102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Synoptic wave perturbations and convective systems over equatorial Africa
    • Nguyen T, Duvel J. 2008. Synoptic wave perturbations and convective systems over equatorial Africa. J. Clim. 21: 6372-6388.
    • (2008) J. Clim , vol.21 , pp. 6372-6388
    • Nguyen, T.1    Duvel, J.2
  • 39
    • 84904757526 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble based first guess support towards a risk-based severe weather warning service
    • Neal RA, Boyle P, Grahame N, Mylne K, Sharpe M. 2013. Ensemble based first guess support towards a risk-based severe weather warning service. Meteorol. Appl. 21: 563-577.
    • (2013) Meteorol. Appl , vol.21 , pp. 563-577
    • Neal, R.A.1    Boyle, P.2    Grahame, N.3    Mylne, K.4    Sharpe, M.5
  • 40
    • 0035086606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A non-linear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models
    • Palmer TN. 2001. A non-linear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127: 279-304.
    • (2001) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.127 , pp. 279-304
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 43
    • 38849155083 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A stochastic parameterization for deep convection based on equilibrium statistics
    • Plant RS, Craig GC. 2008. A stochastic parameterization for deep convection based on equilibrium statistics. J. Atmos. Sci. 65: 87-105.
    • (2008) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.65 , pp. 87-105
    • Plant, R.S.1    Craig, G.C.2
  • 44
    • 43449087894 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How well do coupled models simulate today's climate?
    • Reichler T, Kim J. 2008. How well do coupled models simulate today's climate?. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89: 303-311.
    • (2008) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc , vol.89 , pp. 303-311
    • Reichler, T.1    Kim, J.2
  • 46
    • 84873319089 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards the development of a robust model hierarchy: Investigation of dynamical limitations at low resolution and possible solutions
    • Sanchez C, Williams KD, Shutts GJ, McDonald RE, Hinton TJ, Senior CA, Wood N. 2013. Towards the development of a robust model hierarchy: Investigation of dynamical limitations at low resolution and possible solutions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139: 75-84.
    • (2013) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.139 , pp. 75-84
    • Sanchez, C.1    Williams, K.D.2    Shutts, G.J.3    McDonald, R.E.4    Hinton, T.J.5    Senior, C.A.6    Wood, N.7
  • 47
    • 84922912313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter scheme across time-scales and resolutions
    • Sanchez C, Williams KD, Shutts G, Collins M. 2014. Impact of a Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter scheme across time-scales and resolutions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: 2625-2637, doi: 10.1002/qj.2328.
    • (2014) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.140 , pp. 2625-2637
    • Sanchez, C.1    Williams, K.D.2    Shutts, G.3    Collins, M.4
  • 48
    • 0036129946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction
    • Simmons AJ, Hollingsworth A. 2002. Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128: 647-677.
    • (2002) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.128 , pp. 647-677
    • Simmons, A.J.1    Hollingsworth, A.2
  • 49
    • 31544461628 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A kinetic energy backscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems
    • Shutts GJ. 2005. A kinetic energy backscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 3079-3102.
    • (2005) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.131 , pp. 3079-3102
    • Shutts, G.J.1
  • 50
    • 84877661096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coarse graining the vorticity equation in the ECMWF integrated forecasting system: The search for kinetic energy backscatter
    • Shutts GJ. 2013. Coarse graining the vorticity equation in the ECMWF integrated forecasting system: The search for kinetic energy backscatter. J. Atmos. Sci. 70: 1233-1241.
    • (2013) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.70 , pp. 1233-1241
    • Shutts, G.J.1
  • 51
    • 84946477434 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A stochastic convective backscatter scheme for use in ensemble prediction systems
    • Shutts GJ. 2015. A stochastic convective backscatter scheme for use in ensemble prediction systems. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2547.
    • (2015) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc
    • Shutts, G.J.1
  • 52
    • 33846917940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Convective forcing fluctuations in a cloud-resolving model: Relevance to the stochastic parameterization problem
    • Shutts GJ, Palmer TN. 2007. Convective forcing fluctuations in a cloud-resolving model: Relevance to the stochastic parameterization problem. J.Clim. 20: 187-202.
    • (2007) J.Clim , vol.20 , pp. 187-202
    • Shutts, G.J.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 53
    • 77954364965 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An analysis of convectively coupled Kelvin waves in 20 WCRP CMIP3 global coupled climate models
    • Straub K, Haertel P, Kiladis G. 2010. An analysis of convectively coupled Kelvin waves in 20 WCRP CMIP3 global coupled climate models. J. Clim. 23: 3031-3056.
    • (2010) J. Clim , vol.23 , pp. 3031-3056
    • Straub, K.1    Haertel, P.2    Kiladis, G.3
  • 54
    • 38849167583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic nature of physical parameterizations in ensemble prediction: A stochastic convection approach
    • Teixeira J, Reynolds C. 2008. Stochastic nature of physical parameterizations in ensemble prediction: A stochastic convection approach. Mon. Weather Rev. 136: 483-496.
    • (2008) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.136 , pp. 483-496
    • Teixeira, J.1    Reynolds, C.2
  • 55
    • 79955142260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme to improve MOGREPS probabilistic forecast skill
    • Tennant WJ, Shutts GJ, Arribas A, Thompson SA. 2011. Using a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme to improve MOGREPS probabilistic forecast skill. Mon. Weather Rev. 139: 1190-1206.
    • (2011) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.139 , pp. 1190-1206
    • Tennant, W.J.1    Shutts, G.J.2    Arribas, A.3    Thompson, S.A.4
  • 56
    • 84896052150 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cascades, backscatter and conservation in numerical models of two-dimensional turbulence
    • Thuburn J, Kent J, Wood N. 2013. Cascades, backscatter and conservation in numerical models of two-dimensional turbulence. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: 626-638.
    • (2013) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.140 , pp. 626-638
    • Thuburn, J.1    Kent, J.2    Wood, N.3
  • 57
    • 56549104468 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A stochastic convective approach to account for model uncertainty due to unresolved humidity variability
    • Tompkins AM, Berner J. 2008. A stochastic convective approach to account for model uncertainty due to unresolved humidity variability. J. Geophys. Res. 113: D18101, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009284.
    • (2008) J. Geophys. Res , vol.113 , pp. D18101
    • Tompkins, A.M.1    Berner, J.2
  • 58
    • 1842685707 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scale interactions and atmospheric predictability: An updated perspective
    • Tribbia JJ, Baumhefner DP. 2004. Scale interactions and atmospheric predictability: An updated perspective. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 703-713.
    • (2004) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.132 , pp. 703-713
    • Tribbia, J.J.1    Baumhefner, D.P.2
  • 60
    • 80051977694 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
    • Weisheimer A, Palmer TN, Doblas-Reyes FJ. 2011. Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L16703, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048123.
    • (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.38
    • Weisheimer, A.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.3
  • 61
    • 84901387299 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system
    • Weisheimer A, Corti S, Palmer T, Vitart F. 2014. Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 372: 20130290.
    • (2014) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A , vol.372 , pp. 20130290
    • Weisheimer, A.1    Corti, S.2    Palmer, T.3    Vitart, F.4
  • 62
    • 0033077602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Convectively coupled equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wave number-frequency domain
    • Wheeler M, Kiladis GN. 1999. Convectively coupled equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wave number-frequency domain. J.Atmos. Sci. 56: 374-399.
    • (1999) J.Atmos. Sci , vol.56 , pp. 374-399
    • Wheeler, M.1    Kiladis, G.N.2
  • 64
    • 0031436319 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields
    • Wilks DS. 1997. Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields. J. Clim. 10: 65-82.
    • (1997) J. Clim , vol.10 , pp. 65-82
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 65
    • 0003632941 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
    • (3rd edn). Academic Press, Elsevier: Amsterdam
    • Wilks DS. 2011. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (3rd edn). Academic Press, Elsevier: Amsterdam, 704pp.
    • (2011) , pp. 704
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 66
    • 29144498292 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling climate change: The role of unresolved processes
    • Williams PD. 2005. Modelling climate change: The role of unresolved processes. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 363: 2931-2946.
    • (2005) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A , vol.363 , pp. 2931-2946
    • Williams, P.D.1
  • 68
    • 23644435616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Zhang C. 2005. Madden-Julian oscillation. Rev. Geophys. 43: RG2003.
    • (2005) Rev. Geophys , vol.43
    • Zhang, C.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.