메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 25, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 819-836

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

Author keywords

Ensembles; Extratropical cyclones; Northern Hemisphere

Indexed keywords

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS; ERROR GROWTH; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS; EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES; FEATURE-TRACKING; NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTIONS; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES; OBSERVING SYSTEMS; OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS; PROPAGATION SPEED; RELATIVE PERFORMANCE; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; SPREAD-SKILL RELATIONSHIP; TIME PERIODS; WEATHER RESEARCH;

EID: 77955570957     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010WAF2222326.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (74)

References (40)
  • 1
    • 0033368923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The skill of ensemble prediction systems
    • Atger, F., 1999: The skill of ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1941-1953.
    • (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.127 , pp. 1941-1953
    • Atger, F.1
  • 2
    • 27744527740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global observations and forecast skill
    • Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and L. S. R. Froude, 2005: Global observations and forecast skill. Tellus, 57A, 515-527.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 515-527
    • Bengtsson, L.1    Hodges, K.I.2    Froude, L.S.R.3
  • 3
    • 66849119215 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate?
    • Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J. Climate, 22, 2276-2301.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 2276-2301
    • Bengtsson, L.1    Hodges, K.I.2    Keenlyside, N.3
  • 4
    • 0035270690 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: Theoretical aspects
    • Bishop, C. H., B. J. Etherton, and S. J. Majumdar, 2001: Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: Theoretical aspects. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 420-436.
    • (2001) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.129 , pp. 420-436
    • Bishop, C.H.1    Etherton, B.J.2    Majumdar, S.J.3
  • 5
    • 77955580034 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
    • in press
    • Bougeault, P., and Coauthors, 2010: The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.
    • (2010) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • Bougeault P.et, al.1
  • 6
    • 7744230817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Performance of the ECMWF and the BoM ensemble prediction systems in the Southern Hemisphere
    • Bourke, W., R. Buizza, and M. Naughton, 2004: Performance of the ECMWF and the BoM ensemble prediction systems in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2338-2357.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 2338-2357
    • Bourke, W.1    Buizza, R.2    Naughton, M.3
  • 8
    • 0029412335 scopus 로고
    • The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation
    • Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
    • (1995) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.52 , pp. 1434-1456
    • Buizza, R.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 9
    • 0033403384 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Buizza, R., M. Miller, and T. M. Palmer, 1999: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2887-2908.
    • (1999) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.125 , pp. 2887-2908
    • Buizza, R.1    Miller, M.2    Palmer, T.M.3
  • 10
    • 12944288520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems
    • Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 1076-1097
    • Buizza, R.1    Houtekamer, P.L.2    Toth, Z.3    Pellerin, G.4    Wei, M.5    Zhu, Y.6
  • 12
    • 68249138403 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional differences in the prediction of extratropical cyclones by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Froude, L. S. R., 2009: Regional differences in the prediction of extratropical cyclones by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 893-911.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 893-911
    • Froude, L.S.R.1
  • 13
    • 33847361093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system
    • Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. I. Hodges, 2007a: The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 315-333.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 315-333
    • Froude, L.S.R.1    Bengtsson, L.2    Hodges, K.I.3
  • 14
    • 34547679926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems
    • Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. I. Hodges, 2007b: The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2545-2567.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 2545-2567
    • Froude, L.S.R.1    Bengtsson, L.2    Hodges, K.I.3
  • 15
    • 0000461755 scopus 로고
    • Feature tracking on the unit sphere
    • Hodges, K. I., 1995: Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 3458-3465.
    • (1995) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.123 , pp. 3458-3465
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 16
    • 0032716885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptive constraints for feature tracking
    • Hodges, K. I., 1999: Adaptive constraints for feature tracking. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1362-1373.
    • (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.127 , pp. 1362-1373
    • Hodges, K.I.1
  • 17
    • 0141906313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of recent reanalysis datasets using objective feature tracking: Storm tracks and tropical easterly waves
    • Hodges, K. I., B. J. Hoskins, J. Boyle, and C. Thorncroft, 2003: A comparison of recent reanalysis datasets using objective feature tracking: Storm tracks and tropical easterly waves. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2012-2037.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 2012-2037
    • Hodges, K.I.1    Hoskins, B.J.2    Boyle, J.3    Thorncroft, C.4
  • 18
    • 0036326746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks
    • Hoskins, B. J., and K. I. Hodges, 2002: New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041-1061.
    • (2002) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.59 , pp. 1041-1061
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    Hodges, K.I.2
  • 19
    • 28244438410 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new perspective on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks
    • Hoskins, B. J., and K. I. Hodges, 2005: A new perspective on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks. J. Climate, 18, 4108-4129.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 4108-4129
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    Hodges, K.I.2
  • 20
    • 0001120422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using ensemble forecasts for model validation
    • Houtekamer, P. L., and L. Lefaivre, 1997: Using ensemble forecasts for model validation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2416-2426.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 2416-2426
    • Houtekamer, P.L.1    Lefaivre, L.2
  • 21
    • 0032024819 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique
    • Houtekamer, P. L., and H. L. Mitchell, 1998: Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 768-811.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.126 , pp. 768-811
    • Houtekamer, P.L.1    Mitchell, H.L.2
  • 22
    • 69549108852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Medium-range multi-model ensemble combination and calibration
    • Johnson, C., and R. Swinbank, 2009: Medium-range multi-model ensemble combination and calibration. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 777-794.
    • (2009) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.135 , pp. 777-794
    • Johnson, C.1    Swinbank, R.2
  • 23
    • 33845436088 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A singular vector perspective of 4DVAR: The spatial structure and evolution of baroclinic weather systems
    • Johnson, C., B. J. Hoskins, N. K. Nichols, and S. P. Ballard, 2006: A singular vector perspective of 4DVAR: The spatial structure and evolution of baroclinic weather systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3436-3455.
    • (2006) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.134 , pp. 3436-3455
    • Johnson, C.1    Hoskins, B.J.2    Nichols, N.K.3    Ballard, S.P.4
  • 24
    • 33750105999 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model
    • Jung, T., S. K. Gulev, I. Rudeva, and V. Soloviov, 2006: Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1839-1857.
    • (2006) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.132 , pp. 1839-1857
    • Jung, T.1    Gulev, S.K.2    Rudeva, I.3    Soloviov, V.4
  • 25
    • 0000630257 scopus 로고
    • Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
    • Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
    • (1974) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.102 , pp. 409-418
    • Leith, C.E.1
  • 26
    • 77955579598 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can MCGE outperform the ECMWF ensemble?
    • doi:10.2151/sola.2008-020
    • Matsueda, M., and H. L. Tanaka, 2008: Can MCGE outperform the ECMWF ensemble? Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 4, 77-80, doi:10.2151/sola.2008-020.
    • (2008) Sci. Online Lett. Atmos. , vol.4 , pp. 77-80
    • Matsueda, M.1    Tanaka, H.L.2
  • 28
    • 0035302469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2001: Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 638-663.
    • (2001) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.129 , pp. 638-663
    • Mullen, S.L.1    Buizza, R.2
  • 29
    • 58049132648 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions
    • doi:10.1029/2008GL033837
    • Pappenberger, F., J. Bartholmes, J. Thielen, H. L. Cloke, R. Buizza, and A. de Roo, 2008: New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10404, doi:10.1029/2008GL033837.
    • (2008) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.35
    • Pappenberger, F.1    Bartholmes, J.2    Thielen, J.3    Cloke, H.L.4    Buizza, R.5    De Roo, A.6
  • 30
    • 58049196895 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles
    • Park, Y.-Y., R. Buizza, and M. Leutbecher, 2008: TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 2029-2050.
    • (2008) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.134 , pp. 2029-2050
    • Park, Y.-Y.1    Buizza, R.2    Leutbecher, M.3
  • 32
    • 31544461628 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A kinetic energy backscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems
    • Shutts, G., 2005: A kinetic energy backscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3079-3102.
    • (2005) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.131 , pp. 3079-3102
    • Shutts, G.1
  • 34
    • 0001509508 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.74 , pp. 2317-2330
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 35
    • 0000593274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 3297-3319
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 36
    • 0141459914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new measure of ensemble performance: Perturbation versus error correlation analysis (PECA)
    • Wei, M., and Z. Toth, 2003: A new measure of ensemble performance: Perturbation versus error correlation analysis (PECA). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1549-1565.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 1549-1565
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2
  • 37
    • 33645982241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble transform Kalman filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP
    • Wei, M., and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, Y. Zhu, C. Bishop, and X. Wang, 2006: Ensemble transform Kalman filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP. Tellus, 58A, 28-44.
    • (2006) Tellus , vol.58 A , pp. 28-44
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2    Wobus, R.3    Zhu, Y.4    Bishop, C.5    Wang, X.6
  • 38
    • 37549070304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system
    • Wei, M., and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2008: Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system. Tellus, 60A, 62-79.
    • (2008) Tellus , vol.60 A , pp. 62-79
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2    Wobus, R.3    Zhu, Y.4
  • 39
    • 33845944522 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WMO, WMO/TD-1258, WWRP/THORPEX 4
    • WMO, 2005: THORPEX international research implementation plan. WMO/TD-1258, WWRP/THORPEX 4, 98 pp. [Available online at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/CD_ROM_implementation_plan_v1.pdf.]
    • (2005) THORPEX international research implementation plan , pp. 98
  • 40
    • 0032742880 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A perturbation method for hurricane ensemble predictions
    • Zhang, Z., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 1999: A perturbation method for hurricane ensemble predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 447-469.
    • (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.127 , pp. 447-469
    • Zhang, Z.1    Krishnamurti, T.N.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.