Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 38, Issue 16, 2011, Pages

  Weisheimer, Antje ^a,b   Palmer, T N ^a,b   Doblas Reyes, F J ^a,c,d  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c INSTITUCIÓ CATALANA DE RECERCA I ESTUDIS AVANÇATS ICREA   (Spain)

^d Institut Catal de Cincies Del Clima ^*  (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; EARTH (PLANET); FORECASTING; PARAMETERIZATION; RATING; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; SURFACE PROPERTIES; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC; LAND AREAS; MODEL UNCERTAINTIES; MULTI-MODEL; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; PROBABILISTIC SKILL; REGIONAL SCALE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; SEASONAL FORECASTS; SKILL SCORE; SPREAD-SKILL RELATIONSHIP; TIME-SCALES;

STOCHASTIC MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MARINE ATMOSPHERE; MODEL TEST; PARAMETERIZATION; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PROBABILITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONALITY; STOCHASTICITY; TEMPORAL VARIATION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (EQUATORIAL);

EID: 80051977694     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048123     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Adler, R. F., et al. (2003), The version 2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present), J. Hydro-meteorol., 4, 1147-1167, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004〈1147: TVGPCP〉2.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 38162561)
2. Alessandri, A., et al. (2011), Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts: comparison with DEMETER, Mon. Weather Rev., 139(2), 581-607, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3417.1.
3. Berner, J., S.-Y. Ha, J. P. Hacker, A. Fournier, and C. Snyder (2011), Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Stochastic versus multiphysics representations, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1972-1995, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3595.1.
4. Bougeault, P., et al. (2010), The THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1059-1072, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2853.1.
5. Buizza, R., M. Miller, and T. N. Palmer (1999), Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887-2908, doi:10.1256/smsqj.56005. (Pubitemid 30044976)
6. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., et al. (2009), Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 1538-1559, doi:10.1002/qj.464.
7. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., et al. (2010), Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts, Tech. Memo. 621, 45 pp., Eur. Cent. Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
8. Ferro, C. A. T. (2007), Comparing probabilistic forecasting systems with the Brier Score, Weather Forecast., 22, 1076-1088, doi:10.1175/WAF1034.1. (Pubitemid 350066119)
9. Giorgi, F., and R. Francisco (2000), Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: A regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM, Clim. Dyn., 16, 169-182, doi:10.1007/PL00013733. (Pubitemid 30192428)
10. Hazeleger, W., C. Jones, R. McGrath, and J. Hesselbjerg-Christensen (2009), EC-Earth: A seamless prediction approach to earth system modeling, IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., 6, 052002, doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/5/052002.
11. Jolliffe, I. T., and D. B. Stephenson (2003), Forecast Verification: A Practitioner 's Guide in Atmospheric Science, John Wiley, London.
12. Masson, D., and R. Knutti (2011), Climate model genealogy, Geophys. Res. Lett, 38, L08703, doi:10.1029/2011GL046864.
13. Müller, W. A., et al. (2005), A debiased ranked probability skill scores to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes, J. Clim., 18, 1513-1523, doi:10.1175/JCLI3361.1. (Pubitemid 40849765)
14. Murphy, A. H. (1973), A new vector partition of the probability score, J. Appl. Meteorol, 12(4), 595-600.
15. Murphy, J. M., et al. (2004), Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, 430, 768-772, doi:10.1038/nature02771. (Pubitemid 39071344)
16. Palmer, T. N. (2001), A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 127, 279-304. (Pubitemid 32257521)
17. Palmer, T. N., and P. Williams (Eds.) (2009), Stochastic Physics and Climate Modelling, 496 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
18. Palmer, T. N., et al. (2004), Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 85, 853-872, doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853.
19. Palmer, T. N., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell (2008), Reliability of climate change projections of precipitation: Towards "seamless" climate predictions, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 89, 459-470, doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459. (Pubitemid 351756658)
20. Palmer, T. N., R. Buizza, F. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung, M. Leutbecher, G. J. Shutts, M. Steinheimer, and A. Weisheimer (2009), Stochastic parametrization and model uncertainty, Tech. Memo. 598, 42 pp., Eur. Cent. Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
21. Shutts, G. J. (2005), A kinetic energy backscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 131, 3079-3102, doi:10.1256/qj.04.106. (Pubitemid 43186175)
22. Smith, D., S. Cusack, A. Colman, C. Folland, G. Harris, and J. Murphy (2007), Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model, Science, 317,796-799, doi:10.1126/science. 1139540.
23. Smith, D., R. Eade, N. Dunstone, D. Fereday, J. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, A. Scaife (2010), Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency, Nat. Geosci., 3, 846-849, doi:10.1038/ngeo1004.
24. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller (Eds.) (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
25. Stainforth, D., et al. (2005), Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases, Nature, 433, 403-406, doi:10.1038/nature03301. (Pubitemid 40203317)
26. Uppala, S. M., et al. (2005), The ERA-40 reanalysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 131, 2961-3012, doi:10.1256/qj.04.176. (Pubitemid 43186171)
27. Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller (2007), The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 118-124, doi:10.1175/MWR3280.1. (Pubitemid 46188846)
28. Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller (2008), Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 134, 241-260, doi:10.1002/qj.210. (Pubitemid 351512725)
29. Weisheimer, A., et al. (2009a), ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL040896.
30. Weisheimer, A., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and T. N. Palmer (2009b), Model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasting: Insight from the ENSEMBLES project, ECMWF Newsl, 122, 21-26.