A nonlinear dynamical perspective model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 127, Issue 572, 2001, Pages 279-304

  Palmer, T N ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Nonlinear dynamics; Parametrizations; Stochastic models; Unresolved scales

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0035086606     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.57201     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Simple initial value problems and mechanisms for baroclinic growth
2. From short-range barotropic modelling to extended-range global weather prediction: A 40-year perspective
3. A new convective adjustment scheme. II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and arctic air-mass data sets
4. Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles
5. The singular vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation
6. Stochastic simulation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
7. The albedo of fractal stratocumulus clouds
8. Horizontal wavenumber spectra of winds, temperature and trave gases during the Pacific Exploratory Missions: 1. Climatology
9. Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes
10. A stochastically excited linear system as a model for quasigeostrophic turbulence: Analytic results for one- and two-layer fluids
11. Flow response to large-scale topography: The greenland tip jet
12. Preliminary investigations into the effect of adding stochastic backscatter to the unified model
13. Stochastic dynamics of baroclinic waves
14. Generalised stability theory. Part I: Autonomous operators
15. Perturbation growth and structure in time dependent flows
16. Accurate low-dimensional approximation of the linear dynamics of fluid flow
17. Eddy viscosity and stochastic backscatter parametrisations on the sphere for atmospheric circulation models
18. Theoretical interpretation of atmospheric wavenumber spectra of wind and temperature observed by commercial aircraft during GASP
19. Topics in geophysical fluid dynamics: Atmospheric dynamics, dynamo theory and climate dynamics
20. The impact of mesoscale convective system potential-vorticity anomalies in numerical weather prediction forecasts
21. Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: Two transplant cast-studies
22. Stochastic climate models. Theory
23. The nature of singular vector growth and structure
24. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction
25. Multiple flow regimes in the northern hemispheric winter. Part I: Methodology and hemispheric regimes
26. The horizontal kinetic energy spectrum and spectral budget simulated by a high-resolution troposphere-stratosphere GCM
27. -5/3 mesoscale spectral regime in the GFDL SHYHI general circulation model
28. Believable scales and parametrisations in a spectral transform model
29. Stochastic backscatter in a subgrid-scale model: Plane shear mixing layer
30. Dynamical meteorology
31. Stratified turbulence and the mesoscale variability of the atmosphere
32. Stratified turbulence in the atmospheric mesoscales
33. Deterministic nonperiodic flow
34. The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion
35. Predictability-a problem partly solved
36. Area-perimeter relation for rain and cloud areas
37. Equilibrium vs. activation control of large-scale variations of tropical deep convection
38. Stochastic backscatter in large-eddy simulations of boundary layers
39. The effect of orographically excited gravity-wave drag on the general circulation of the lower stratosphere and troposphere
40. Predictability and finite-time instability of the northern winter circulation
41. Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics. II: Consequences for dynamical predictability
42. Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics. I: Observational evidence
43. Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation
44. A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system. Part II: Nonlinear cases
45. A climatology of atmospheric wavenumber spectra observed by commercial aircraft
46. Stochastic forcing of the wintertime extratropical flow
47. Medium and extended-range predictability, and stability of the PNA mode
48. Predictability of the atmosphere and oceans: From days to decades
49. On parametrizing scales that are only somewhat smaller than the smallest resolved scales, with application to convection and orography
50. Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate
51. Alleviation of a systematic westerly bias in general circulation and numerical weather prediction models through an orographic gravity-wave drag parametrization
52. A probability and decision model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations
53. A stochastic model of IndoPacific sea surface temperature anomalies
54. Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted singular vectors
55. A stochastic model of cumulus clumping
56. Convergence of singular vectors towards Lyapunov vectors
57. Embedology
58. A balanced flow perspective on the effect of deep convection
59. A numerical modelling study of the geostrophic adjustment process following deep convection
60. Disentangling uncertainty and error: On the predictability of nonlinear systems
61. Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
62. Detecting strange attractors in turbulence
63. Fractal behavior of ozone, wind and temperature in the lower stratosphere
64. Remarks on the predictability properties of two- and three-dimensional flow
65. A universal spectrum of buoyancy waves in the atmosphere
66. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter
67. Interpretation of interdecadal trends in northern hemisphere surface air temperature
68. The dependence on convection parametrization of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation simulated by the UIUC 11-layer atmospheric GCM