Impact of resolution and design on the U.S. Navy global ensemble performance in the tropics

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 139, Issue 7, 2011, Pages 2145-2155

  Reynolds, Carolyn A ^a   Mclay, Justin G ^a   Goerss, James S ^a   Serra, Efren A ^b   Hodyss, Daniel ^a   Sampson, Charles R ^a  

^a NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b DeVine Consulting Inc   (United States)

Author keywords

Ensembles; Error analysis; Kinetic energy; Tropical cyclones; Wind

Indexed keywords

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE MEMBERS; ENSEMBLE PERFORMANCE; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS; ENSEMBLES; INITIAL PERTURBATION; RESOLUTION TESTS; ROOT-MEAN SQUARE ERRORS; STOCHASTIC KINETICS; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TROPICAL WINDS; U.S. NAVY; WIND SPEED;

BACKSCATTERING; ELECTRON ENERGY LOSS SPECTROSCOPY; ERROR ANALYSIS; HURRICANES; KINETIC ENERGY; KINETICS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; STORMS; WIND EFFECTS;

TROPICS;

BACKSCATTER; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR ANALYSIS; KINETIC ENERGY; STOCHASTICITY; STORM TRACK; TRANSFORM; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING; WIND;

EID: 79960724128     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2011MWR3546.1     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Berner, J., G. J. Schutts, M. Leutbecher, and T. N. Palmer, 2009: Aspectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 603-626.
2. Bishop, C. H., and Z. Toth, 1999: Ensemble transformation and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1748-1765.
3. Bowler, N. E., A. Arribas, S. E. Beare, K. R. Mylne, and G. J. Schutts, 2009: The local ETKF and SKEB: Upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 767-776.
4. Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1998: Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2503-2518.
5. Buizza, R., M. Miller, and T. N. Palmer, 1999: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2887-2908.
6. Charron, M., G. Pellerin, L. Spacek, P. L. Houtekamer, N. Gagnon, H. L. Mitchell, and L. Michelin, 2010: Toward random sampling of model error in the Canadian ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 1877-1901.
7. Daley, R., and E. Barker, 2001: NAVDAS: Formulation and diagnostics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 869-883.
8. Emanuel, K. A., and M. Zivkovic-Rothman, 1999: Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1766-1782.
9. Goerss, J. S., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1187-1193.
10. Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, M. Fiorino, and S. G. Benjamin, 2011: Global ensemble predictions of 2009's tropical cyclones initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 668-688.
11. Harshvardhan, R. Davies, D. A. Randall, and T. G. Corsetti, 1987: A fast radiation parameterization for atmospheric circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 1009-1016.
12. Houtekamer, P. L., L. Lefaivre, J. Derome, H. Ritchie, and H. L. Mitchell, 1996: A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1225-1242.
13. Knaff, J. M., C. Guard, J. Kossin, T. Marchok, B. Sampson, T. Smith, and N. Surgi, 2007: Operational guidance and skill in forecasting structure change. Proc. Sixth WMO Int. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI), San José, Costa Rica, WMO Tech. Doc. 1383. [Available online at http://severe.worldweather.org./iwtc/.].
14. Louis, J. F., M. Tiedtke, and J. F. Geleyn, 1982: A short history of the operational PBL parameterization at ECMWF. Proc. ECMWFWorkshop on Planetary Boundary Parameterizations, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 59-79.
15. Majumdar, S. J., and P. M. Finocchio, 2010: On the ability of global ensemble prediction systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 659-680.
16. McLay, J. G., and C. A. Reynolds, 2009: Two alternative implementations of the ensemble-transform (ET) analysis-perturbation scheme: The ET with extended cycling intervals, and the ET without cycling. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1200-1213.
17. McLay, J. G., C. H. Bishop, and C. A. Reynolds, 2007: The ensemble transform scheme adapted for the generation of stochastic perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 1257-1266.
18. McLay, J. G., C. H. Bishop, and C. A. Reynolds, 2008: Evaluation of the ensemble transform analysis perturbation scheme at NRL. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1093-1108.
19. McLay, J. G., C. H. Bishop, and C. A. Reynolds, 2010: A local formulation of the ensemble transform(ET) analysis perturbation scheme. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 985-993.
20. Peng, M. S., J. A. Ridout, and T. F. Hogan, 2004: Recent modifications of the Emanuel convective scheme in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1254-1268.
21. Puri, K., J. Barkmeijer, and T. N. Palmer, 2001: Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 709-731.
22. Reynolds, C. A., J. Teixeira, and J. G. McLay, 2008: Impact of stochastic convection on the ensemble transform. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4517-4526.
23. Sampson, C. R., and A. J. Schrader, 2000: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (version 3.2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1231-1240.
24. Sampson, C. R, J. L. Franklin, J. A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 304-312.
25. Shutts, G., 2005: A kinetic energy backscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3079-3102.
26. Shutts, G., and T. N. Palmer, 2004: The use of high-resolution numerical simulations of tropical circulation to calibrate stochastic physics schemes. Proc. ECMWF/CLIVAR Simulation and Prediction of Intra-seasonal Variability with Emphasis on the MJO, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 83-102.
27. Szunyogh, I., E. J. Kostelich, G. Gyarmati, E. Kalnay, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, E. Satterfield, and J. A. Yorke, 2008: A local ensemble transform Kalman filter for the NCEP global model. Tellus, 60A, 113-130.
28. Teixeira, J., and T. F. Hogan, 2002: Boundary layer clouds in a global atmospheric model: Simple cloud cover parameterizations. J. Climate, 15, 1261-1276.
29. Teixeira, J., and C. A. Reynolds, 2008: Stochastic nature of physical parameterizations in ensemble prediction: A stochastic convection approach. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 483-496.
30. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
31. Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, Y. Zhu, C. H. Bishop, and X. Wang, 2006: Ensemble transform Kalman filter-based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP. Tellus, 58A, 28-44.
32. Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2008: Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operation forecast system. Tellus, 60A, 62-79.
33. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 627 pp.
34. Williford, C. E., T.N.Krisnamurti,R.C. Torres, S. Cocke, Z. Christidis, and T. S. Vijaya Kumar, 2003: Real-time multimodel superensemble forecasts ofAtlantic tropical systems of 1999. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1878-1894.
35. Yamaguchi, M., R. Sakai, M. Kyoda, T. Komori, and T. Kadowaki, 2009: Typhoon ensemble prediction system developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2592-2604.