Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 10, Issue 12, 2015, Pages

  Müller, Christoph ^a   Elliott, Joshua ^b,c   Chryssanthacopoulos, James ^c   Deryng, Delphine ^d,e   Folberth, Christian ^f   Pugh, Thomas A M ^g   Schmid, Erwin ^h  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO   (United States)

^c NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^e LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS   (United Kingdom)

^f INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

^g KARLSRUHE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (Germany)

^h UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND LIFE SCIENCES   (Austria)

Author keywords

AgMIP; agriculture; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate mitigation; crop model; ISI MIP

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE MODELS; CROPS; GAS EMISSIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; PRODUCTIVITY;

AGMIP; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY; ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE; ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION; CLIMATE MITIGATIONS; CROP MODEL; ISI-MIP; SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SCALE;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CROP PRODUCTION; CROP YIELD; EMISSION CONTROL; TEMPERATE ENVIRONMENT;

EID: 84952936820     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125004     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Ainsworth E A et al 2002 A meta-analysis of elevated [CO2] effects on soybean (Glycine max) physiology, growth and yield Glob. Change Biol. 8 695-709
2. Ainsworth E A, Leakey A D B, Ort D R and Long S P 2008 FACE-ing the facts: inconsistencies and interdependence among field, chamber and modeling studies of elevated [CO2] impacts on crop yield and food supply New Phytologist 179 5-9
3. Asseng S et al 2015 Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production Nat. Clim. Change 5 143-7
4. Bassu S et al 2014 Do various maize crop models give the same responses to climate change factors? Glob. Change Biol. 20 2301-20
5. Bentsen M et al 2013 The Norwegian earth system model, NorESM1-M :I. Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate Geosci. Model Dev. 6 687-720
6. Bondeau A et al 2007 Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance Glob. Change Biol. 13 679-706
7. Cai X M and Rosegrant M W 2002 Global water demand and supply projections :I. A modeling approach Water Int. 27 159-69
8. Dermody O, O'Neill B F, Zangerl A R, Berenbaum M R and DeLucia E H 2008 Effects of elevated CO2 and O-3 on leaf damage and insect abundance in a soybean agroecosystem Arthropod-Plant Interact. 2 125-35
9. Deryng D, Conway D, Ramankutty N, Price J and Warren R 2014 Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034011
10. Deryng D et al Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 emissions on crop water productivity Nat. Clim. Change submitted
11. Deryng D, Sacks W J, Barford C C and Ramankutty N 2011 Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 25 GB2006
12. Dufresne J L et al 2013 Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 earth system model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 Clim. Dyn. 40 2123-65
13. Dunne J P et al 2013a GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models : I. Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics J. Clim. 25 6646-65
14. Dunne J P et al 2013b GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models : II. Carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics∗ J. Clim. 26 2247-67
15. Elliott J et al 2014a Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 111 3239-44
16. Elliott J, Kelly D, Chryssanthacopoulos J, Glotter M, Jhunjhnuwala K, Best N, Wilde M and Foster I 2014b The parallel system for integrating impact models and sectors (pSIMS) Environ. Model. Softw. 62 509-16
17. Elliott J et al 2015 The global gridded crop model intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for phase 1 (v1.0) Geosci. Model Dev. 8 261-77
18. Fader M, Rost S, Müller C, Bondeau A and Gerten D 2010 Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: present and potential future patterns J. Hydrol. 384 218-31
19. FAO 2015 FAOSTAT (http://faostat.fao.org/) (accessed 17 February 2015)
20. Fatichi S, Leuzinger S and Körner C 2014 Moving beyond photosynthesis: from carbon source to sink-driven vegetation modeling New Phytologist 201 1086-95
21. Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello F N and van Velhuizen H 2005 Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080 Phil.Trans. R. Soc. B 360 2067-83
22. Fuhrer J 2003 Agroecosystern responses to combinations of elevated CO2, ozone, and global climate change Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 97 1-20
23. Funk C, Dettinger M D, Michaelsen J C, Verdin J P, Brown M E, Barlow M and Hoell A 2008 Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105 11081-6
24. Hatfield J L, Boote K J, Kimball B A, Ziska L H, Izaurralde R C, Ort D, Thomson A M and Wolfe D 2011 Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production Agronomy J. 103 351-70
25. Hempel S, Frieler K, Warszawski L, Schewe J and Piontek F 2013 A trend-preserving bias correction - the ISI-MIP approach Earth Syst. Dyn. 4 219-36
26. Iizumi T, Yokozawa M, Sakurai G, Travasso M I, Romanernkov V, Oettli P, Newby T, Ishigooka Y and Furuya J 2014 Historical changes in global yields: major cereal and legume crops from 1982 to 2006 Glob. Ecology Biogeography 23 346-57
27. Iversen T et al 2013 The Norwegian earth system model, NorESM1-M: II. Climate response and scenario projections Geosci. Model Dev. 6 389-415
28. Izaurralde R C, Williams J R, McGill W B, Rosenberg N J and Jakas M C Q 2006 Simulating soil C dynamics with EPIC: model description and testing against long-term data Ecological Model. 192 362-84
29. Jones C D et al 2011 The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations Geosci. Model Dev. 4 543-70
30. Jones J W, Hoogenboom G, Porter C H, Boote K J, Batchelor W D, Hunt L A, Wilkens P W, Singh U, Gijsman A J and Ritchie J T 2003 The DSSAT cropping system model Eur. J. Agronomy 18 235-65
31. Kriegler E et al 2014 The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies Clim. Change 123 353-67
32. Kummu M, Ward P J, Moel H D and Varis O 2010 Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia Environ. Res. Lett. 5 034006
33. Leakey A D B, Ainsworth E A, Bernacchi C J, Rogers A, Long S P and Ort D R 2009 Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE J. Exp. Bot. 60 2859-76
34. Lindeskog M, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Waha K, Seaquist J, Olin S and Smith B 2013 Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in Africa Earth Syst. Dyn. 4 385-407
35. Liu J G, Williams J R, Zehnder A J B and Yang H 2007 GEPIC - modelling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale Agric. Syst. 94 478-93
36. Long S P, Ainsworth E A, Leakey A D B, Nosberger J and Ort D R 2006 Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations Science 312 1918-21
37. Martre P et al 2014 Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one Glob. Change Biol. 21 911-25
38. Moss R H et al 2010 The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment Nature 463 747-56
39. Müller C, Elliott J and Levermann A 2014 Food security: fertilizing hidden hunger Nat. Clim. Change 4 540-1
40. Myers S S et al 2014 Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition Nature 510 139-42
41. Myhre G et al 2013 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed T F Stocker et al (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press)
42. Nelson G C et al 2014a Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111 3274-9
43. Nelson G C et al 2014b Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree Agric. Econ. 45 85-101
44. Pleijel H and Uddling J 2012 Yield versus quality trade-offs for wheat in response to carbon dioxide and ozone Glob. Change Biol. 18 596-605
45. Portmann F T, Siebert S and Döll P 2010 MIRCA2000-Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: a new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling Glob. Biogeochemical Cycles 24 Gb1011
46. R Development Core Team 2014 R: A language and Environment for Statistical Computing (Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing) (http://R-project.org/)
47. Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V, Cho C, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N and Rafaj P 2011 RCP 8.5 - a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions Clim. Change 109 33-57
48. Ribeiro D M, Araújo W L, Fernie A R, Schippers J H M and Mueller-Roeber B 2012 Action of gibberellins on growth and metabolism of arabidopsis plants associated with high concentration of carbon dioxide Plant Physiol. 160 1781-94
49. Rosen S, Meade B and Murray A 2015 International Food Security Assessment 2015-2025 p 59
50. Rosenzweig C et al 2013 The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies Agric. Forest Meteorol. 170 166-82
51. Rosenzweig C et al 2014 Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 111 3268-73
52. Rosenzweig C and Parry M L 1994 Potential impact of climate change on world food supply Nature 367 133-8
53. Schaphoff S, Heyder U, Ostberg S, Gerten D, Heinke J and Lucht W 2013 Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014026
54. Schimel D, Stephens B B and Fisher J B 2015 Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112 436-41
55. Siebert S, Ewert F, Rezaei E E, Kage H and Graß R 2014 Impact of heat stress on crop yield - on the importance of considering canopy temperature Environ. Res. Lett. 9 044012
56. Smith B, Prentice I C and Sykes M T 2001 Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space Glob. Ecology Biogeography 10 621-37
57. Taylor K E, Stouffer R J and Meehl G A 2012 An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 485-98
58. Teixeira E I, Fischer G, van Velthuizen H, Walter C and Ewert F 2013 Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change Agric. Forest Meteorol. 170 206-15
59. Tubiello F N, Amthor J S, Boote K J, Donatelli M, Easterling W, Fischer G, Gifford R M, Howden M, Reilly J and Rosenzweig C 2007 Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply - a comment on 'food for thought...' by Long et al Science 312: 1918-1921, 2006 Euro. J. Agronomy 26 215-23
60. van Vuuren D et al 2011a RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 °C Clim. Change 109 95-116
61. van Vuuren D P et al 2011b The representative concentration pathways: an overview Clim. Change 109 5-31
62. Waha K, van Bussel L G J, Müller C and Bondeau A 2012 Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates Glob. Ecology Biogeography 21 247-59
63. Warren R et al 2013 Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss Nat. Clim. Change 3 678-82
64. Warszawski L, Frieler K, Huber V, Piontek F, Serdeczny O and Schewe J 2014 The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISI-MIP): project framework Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111 3228-32
65. Watanabe S et al 2011 MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments Geosci. Model Dev. 4 845-72
66. Williams J R 1995 The EPIC model Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology ed V P Singh (Littleton, CO: Water Resources Publications) pp 909-1000
67. Williams J R, Dyke P T, Fuchs W W, Benson V W, Rice O W and Taylor E D 1990 EPIC - Erosion/Productivity Impact Calculator US Department of Agriculture
68. Zavala J A, Casteel C L, DeLucia E H and Berenbaum M R 2008 Anthropogenic increase in carbon dioxide compromises plant defense against invasive insects Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105 5129-33