메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 360, Issue 1463, 2005, Pages 2067-2083

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: An integrated assessment, 1990-2080

Author keywords

Agriculture; Climate change; Crop production; Food security; Risk of hunger; Sub Saharan Africa

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL ECOSYSTEM; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CROP PRODUCTION; ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; FOOD PRODUCTION; FOOD SECURITY; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; INTEGRATED APPROACH; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT;

EID: 33645737353     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1744     Document Type: Conference Paper
Times cited : (715)

References (45)
  • 1
    • 13144283719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2
    • doi:10.1111/j.1469- 8137.2004.01224.x
    • 2. New Phytol. 165, 351-372. (doi:10.1111/j.1469- 8137.2004.01224.x.)
    • (2005) New Phytol , vol.165 , pp. 351-372
    • Ainsworth, E.A.1    Long, S.P.2
  • 2
    • 0003603407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, ISBN 92-5-104628-X
    • FAO 2001 The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2001. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, ISBN 92-5-104628-X.
    • (2001) The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2001
  • 3
    • 85020838720 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • FAO 2003 World Agriculture: Towards 2015/1030. In A FAO perspective (ed. Jelle Bruinsma), p. 432. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.
    • FAO 2003 World Agriculture: Towards 2015/1030. In A FAO perspective (ed. Jelle Bruinsma), p. 432. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.
  • 4
    • 3142574847 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of ozone on net primary production and carbon sequestration in the conterminous United States using a biogeochemistry model
    • Felzer, B., Kicklighter, D. W., Melillo, J. M., Wang, C., Zhuang, Q. & Prinn, R. 2004 Effects of ozone on net primary production and carbon sequestration in the conterminous United States using a biogeochemistry model. Tellus 56B, 230-248.
    • (2004) Tellus , vol.56 B , pp. 230-248
    • Felzer, B.1    Kicklighter, D.W.2    Melillo, J.M.3    Wang, C.4    Zhuang, Q.5    Prinn, R.6
  • 5
    • 0035009510 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model-based analysis of future land-use development in China
    • doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00182-7
    • Fischer, G. & Sun, L. 2001 Model-based analysis of future land-use development in China. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ. 85, 163-176. (doi:10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00182-7.)
    • (2001) Agr. Ecosyst. Environ , vol.85 , pp. 163-176
    • Fischer, G.1    Sun, L.2
  • 6
    • 0028259216 scopus 로고
    • Climate change and world food supply, demand and trade: Who benefits, who loses?
    • doi:10.1016/0959-3780(94)90018-3
    • Fischer, G., Frohberg, K., Parry, M. L. & Rosenzweig, C. 1994 Climate change and world food supply, demand and trade: who benefits, who loses? Global Environ. Change 4, 7-23. (doi:10.1016/0959-3780(94)90018-3. )
    • (1994) Global Environ. Change , vol.4 , pp. 7-23
    • Fischer, G.1    Frohberg, K.2    Parry, M.L.3    Rosenzweig, C.4
  • 7
    • 0003329595 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of potential climate change on global and regional food production and vulnerability
    • ed. E. T. Downing, pp, Berlin: Springer-Verlag
    • Fischer, G., Frohberg, K., Parry, M. L. & Rosenzweig, C. 1996 Impacts of potential climate change on global and regional food production and vulnerability. In Climate change and world food security, vol. 137 (ed. E. T. Downing), pp. 115-159. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
    • (1996) Climate change and world food security , vol.137 , pp. 115-159
    • Fischer, G.1    Frohberg, K.2    Parry, M.L.3    Rosenzweig, C.4
  • 10
    • 85020808785 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fischer, G., Shah, M., & van Velthuizen, H. 2002b Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, Special Report to the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg 2002. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA.
    • Fischer, G., Shah, M., & van Velthuizen, H. 2002b Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, Special Report to the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development, Johannesburg 2002. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA.
  • 11
    • 0033920923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis global coupled model and its climate
    • doi:10.1007/s003820050339
    • Flato, G. M., Boer, G. J., Lee, W. G., McFarlane, N. A., Ramsden, D., Reader, M. C. & Weaver, A. J. 2000 The Canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis global coupled model and its climate. Climate Dyn. 16, 451-467. (doi:10.1007/s003820050339.)
    • (2000) Climate Dyn , vol.16 , pp. 451-467
    • Flato, G.M.1    Boer, G.J.2    Lee, W.G.3    McFarlane, N.A.4    Ramsden, D.5    Reader, M.C.6    Weaver, A.J.7
  • 12
    • 0001257667 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gordon, H. B. & O'Farrell, S. P. 1997 Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Mon. Weather Rev. 125, 875-907. (doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125〈0875:TCCITC〉2.0.CO;2.)
    • Gordon, H. B. & O'Farrell, S. P. 1997 Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Mon. Weather Rev. 125, 875-907. (doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125〈0875:TCCITC〉2.0.CO;2.)
  • 13
    • 0034025893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley centre coupled model without flux adjustments
    • doi:10.1007/s003820050010
    • Gordon, C., Cooper Sr., C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B. & Wood, R. A. 2000 The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dyn. 16, 147-168. (doi:10.1007/s003820050010.)
    • (2000) Climate Dyn , vol.16 , pp. 147-168
    • Gordon, C.1    Cooper Sr., C.A.2    Banks, H.3    Gregory, J.M.4    Johns, T.C.5    Mitchell, J.F.B.6    Wood, R.A.7
  • 15
    • 34247890713 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Summary for policymakers, emissions scenarios
    • IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • IPCC 2000 Summary for policymakers, emissions scenarios. A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2000) A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III
  • 18
    • 0036788051 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 conditions: A meta-analysis of reports on 79 crop and wild species
    • doi:10.1046/j.1469-8137. 2002.00494.x
    • 2 conditions: a meta-analysis of reports on 79 crop and wild species. New Phytol. 156, 9-26. (doi:10.1046/j.1469-8137. 2002.00494.x.)
    • (2002) New Phytol , vol.156 , pp. 9-26
    • Jablonski, L.M.1    Wang, X.2    Curtis, P.S.3
  • 20
    • 85020798133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Washington, DC: Island Press.
    • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Washington, DC: Island Press.
  • 21
    • 0347029891 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IPCC SRES revisited: A response
    • Nakicenovic, N. et al. 2003 IPCC SRES revisited: a response. Clim. Change 14, 187-214.
    • (2003) Clim. Change , vol.14 , pp. 187-214
    • Nakicenovic, N.1
  • 22
    • 0027869518 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oberhuber, J. M. 1993 Simulation of the Atlantic circulation with a coupled sea-ice mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model. Part I: model description. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 13, 808-829. (doi:10.1175/1520- 0485(1993) 023〈0808:SOTACW〉2.0.CO;2.)
    • Oberhuber, J. M. 1993 Simulation of the Atlantic circulation with a coupled sea-ice mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model. Part I: model description. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 13, 808-829. (doi:10.1175/1520- 0485(1993) 023〈0808:SOTACW〉2.0.CO;2.)
  • 23
    • 0036272573 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy
    • doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00004-7
    • Olesen, J. E. & Bindi, M. 2002 Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. Eur. J. Agron. 16, 239-262. (doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00004-7.)
    • (2002) Eur. J. Agron , vol.16 , pp. 239-262
    • Olesen, J.E.1    Bindi, M.2
  • 24
  • 25
    • 0034767937 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Millions at risk: Defining critical climate change threats and targets
    • doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5
    • Parry, M. L. et al. 2001 Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets. Global Environ. Change 11, 181-183. (doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5.)
    • (2001) Global Environ. Change , vol.11 , pp. 181-183
    • Parry, M.L.1
  • 26
    • 1242344212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
    • doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008
    • Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. & Fischer, G. 2004 Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change 14, 53-67. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008.)
    • (2004) Global Environ. Change , vol.14 , pp. 53-67
    • Parry, M.L.1    Rosenzweig, C.2    Iglesias, A.3    Livermore, M.4    Fischer, G.5
  • 27
    • 0034108544 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model - HadAM3
    • doi:10.1007/s003820050009
    • Pope, V. D., Gallani, M. L., Rowntree, P. R. & Stratton, R. A. 2000 The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model - HadAM3. Climate Dyn. 16, 123-146. (doi:10.1007/s003820050009.)
    • (2000) Climate Dyn , vol.16 , pp. 123-146
    • Pope, V.D.1    Gallani, M.L.2    Rowntree, P.R.3    Stratton, R.A.4
  • 28
    • 0009875780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and agriculture in the United States
    • ed. J. Melillo, G. Janetos & T. Karl, pp, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Reilly, J., Tubiello, F. N., McCarl, B. & Melillo, J. 2001 Climate change and agriculture in the United States. In Climate change impacts on the United States: foundation, USGCRP (ed. J. Melillo, G. Janetos & T. Karl), pp. 379-403. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2001) Climate change impacts on the United States: Foundation, USGCRP , pp. 379-403
    • Reilly, J.1    Tubiello, F.N.2    McCarl, B.3    Melillo, J.4
  • 29
    • 0037371002 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reilly, J. et al. 2003 U.S. Agriculture and climate change: new results. Climatic Change 57, 43-69.
    • Reilly, J. et al. 2003 U.S. Agriculture and climate change: new results. Climatic Change 57, 43-69.
  • 30
    • 33646451699 scopus 로고
    • Simulation of the present-day climate with the ECHAM 4 model: Impact of model physics and resolution
    • Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Report No. 93, p, Hamburg, Germany
    • Roeckner et al. 1992 Simulation of the present-day climate with the ECHAM 4 model: impact of model physics and resolution. Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Report No. 93, p. 171, Hamburg, Germany.
    • (1992) , pp. 171
    • Roeckner1
  • 31
    • 0003815148 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate
    • Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Report No. 218, p, Hamburg, Germany
    • Roeckner, E. et al. 1996 The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Report No. 218, p. 90, Hamburg, Germany.
    • (1996) , pp. 90
    • Roeckner, E.1
  • 32
    • 0028181936 scopus 로고
    • Impacts of climate change on world food supply
    • doi:10.1038/367133a0
    • Rosenzweig, C. & Parry, M. L. 1994 Impacts of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367, 133-138. (doi:10.1038/367133a0.)
    • (1994) Nature , vol.367 , pp. 133-138
    • Rosenzweig, C.1    Parry, M.L.2
  • 34
    • 0036800857 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Increased crop damage in the U.S. from excess precipitation under climate change
    • doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0
    • Rosenzweig, C., Tubiello, F. N., Goldberg, R. A., Mills, E. & Bloomfield, J. 2002 Increased crop damage in the U.S. from excess precipitation under climate change. Global Environ. Change 12, 197-202. (doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0.)
    • (2002) Global Environ. Change , vol.12 , pp. 197-202
    • Rosenzweig, C.1    Tubiello, F.N.2    Goldberg, R.A.3    Mills, E.4    Bloomfield, J.5
  • 35
    • 27644562435 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rosenzweig, C., Allen , L. H., Harper, L. A., Hollinger, S. e. & Jones, J. W. (eds) 1995 Climate change and agriculture: analysis of potential international impacts. ASA Special Publication No. 59. Madison, WI: ASA, CSSA and SSSA.
    • Rosenzweig, C., Allen , L. H., Harper, L. A., Hollinger, S. e. & Jones, J. W. (eds) 1995 Climate change and agriculture: analysis of potential international impacts. ASA Special Publication No. 59. Madison, WI: ASA, CSSA and SSSA.
  • 36
    • 0346019958 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Steffen, W, Sanderson, A, Tyson, P. D, Jäger, J, Matson, P. A, Moore III, B, Oldfield, F, Richardson, K, Schellnhuber, H. J, Turner, B. L. & Wasson, R. J, eds, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer-Verlag
    • Steffen, W., Sanderson, A., Tyson, P. D., Jäger, J., Matson, P. A., Moore III, B., Oldfield, F., Richardson, K., Schellnhuber, H. J., Turner, B. L. & Wasson, R. J. (eds) 2004 Global change and the Earth system: a planet under pressure. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer-Verlag.
    • (2004) Global change and the Earth system: A planet under pressure
  • 37
    • 85020776987 scopus 로고
    • Tsuji, G. Y, Uehara, G. & Balas, S, eds, Honolulu, Hawaii: International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer, University of Hawaii
    • Tsuji, G. Y., Uehara, G. & Balas, S. (eds) 1994 DSSAT v3, volumes 1, 2 and 3. Honolulu, Hawaii: International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer, University of Hawaii.
    • (1994) DSSAT v3, volumes 1, 2 and 3
  • 38
    • 85020840525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tubiello, F. N. 2005 Climate variability and agriculture: perspectives on current and future challenges. In Impact of climate change, variability and weather fluctuations on crops and their produce markets (ed. B. Knight), Impact Reports, Cambridge, UK.
    • Tubiello, F. N. 2005 Climate variability and agriculture: perspectives on current and future challenges. In Impact of climate change, variability and weather fluctuations on crops and their produce markets (ed. B. Knight), Impact Reports, Cambridge, UK.
  • 39
    • 0036325688 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of climate change on U.S. crop production from the National assessment. Simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I: Wheat, potato, corn, and citrus
    • Tubiello, F. N., Jagtap, S., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R. & Jones, J. W. 2002 Effects of climate change on U.S. crop production from the National assessment. Simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I: wheat, potato, corn, and citrus. Climate Res. 20, 259-270.
    • (2002) Climate Res , vol.20 , pp. 259-270
    • Tubiello, F.N.1    Jagtap, S.2    Rosenzweig, C.3    Goldberg, R.4    Jones, J.W.5
  • 40
    • 0036919622 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 on crop growth and yield: A review
    • doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00097-7
    • 2 on crop growth and yield: a review. Eur. J. Agr. 18, 57-74. (doi:10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00097-7.)
    • (2002) Eur. J. Agr , vol.18 , pp. 57-74
    • Tubiello, F.N.1    Ewert, F.2
  • 41
    • 85020835381 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A practical plan to achieve the Millenium development goals
    • Investing in development, 2005. ISBN 1-884707-217-1, New York
    • Investing in development. A practical plan to achieve the Millenium development goals. Report to the UN Secretary General. 2005. ISBN 1-884707-217-1, New York.
    • Report to the UN Secretary General
  • 42
    • 0033756966 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations
    • doi:10.1007/s003820000079
    • Washington, W. M. et al. 2000 Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dyn. 16, 755-774. (doi:10.1007/s003820000079.)
    • (2000) Climate Dyn , vol.16 , pp. 755-774
    • Washington, W.M.1
  • 43
    • 0003579206 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Land use, land-use change, and forestry
    • Watson, R. T, Noble, I. R, Bolin, B, Ravindranath, N. H. & Verardo, D. J, eds, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
    • Watson, R. T., Noble, I. R., Bolin, B., Ravindranath, N. H. & Verardo, D. J. (eds) 2000 Land use, land-use change, and forestry. Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2000) Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change
  • 45
    • 0021085655 scopus 로고
    • EPIC - a new model for assessing erosion's effect on soil productivity
    • Williams, J. R., Renard, K. G. & Dyke, P. T. 1984 EPIC - a new model for assessing erosion's effect on soil productivity. J. Soil Water Conserv. 8, 381-383.
    • (1984) J. Soil Water Conserv , vol.8 , pp. 381-383
    • Williams, J.R.1    Renard, K.G.2    Dyke, P.T.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.