The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection and its modulation by the interdecadal pacific oscillation

Journal of Climate

Volumn 28, Issue 12, 2015, Pages 4753-4773

  Westra, Seth ^a   Renard, Benjamin ^b   Thyer, Mark ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE   (Australia)

^b CENTRE DE LYON VILLEURBANNE   (France)

Author keywords

Climate variability; Interdecadal variability

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; LOW PASS FILTERS; MODULATION; NICKEL; PIECEWISE LINEAR TECHNIQUES; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; INTER-DECADAL PACIFIC OSCILLATIONS; INTER-DECADAL VARIABILITY; LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY; MODEL MISSPECIFICATION; PRECIPITATION RELATIONSHIPS; PRECIPITATION TELECONNECTION; STATISTICAL ARTIFACTS;

CLIMATOLOGY;

ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; DECADAL VARIATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); STRATIFICATION; TELECONNECTION;

AUSTRALIA; PACIFIC OCEAN;

EID: 84942902218     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00722.1     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, M. L. L'Heureux, S. Li, and D. G. DeWitt, 2012: Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002-11: Is our capability increasing? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 631-651, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1.
2. Battisti, D. S., and A. C. Hirst, 1989: Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere-ocean model: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlinearity. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1687-1712, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<1687:IVIATA>2.0.CO;2.
3. Benjamini, Y., and Y. Hochberg, 1995: Controlling the false discovery rate-A practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 57B, 289-300.
4. Biondi, F., A. Gershunov, and D. R. Cayan, 2001: North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. J. Climate, 14, 5-10, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0005:NPDCVS>2.0.CO;2.
5. Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1969)097<0163:ATFTEP>2.3.CO;2.
6. Boé, J., and F. Habets, 2014: Multi-decadal river flow variations in France. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 691-708, doi:10.5194/hess-18-691-2014.
7. Cai, W., P. van Rensch, T. Cowan, and A. Sullivan, 2010: Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact. J. Climate, 23, 4944-4955, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3501.1.
8. Cai, W., P. van Rensch, T. Cowan, and H. H. Hendon, 2011: Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall. J. Climate, 24, 3910-3923, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1.
9. Cane, M. A., 2004: The evolution of El Niño, past and future. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 230, 227-240, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.12.003.
10. Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature, 321, 827-832, doi:10.1038/321827a0.
11. Dai, A., 2013: The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation on US precipitation during 1923-2010. Climate Dyn., 41, 633-646, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1446-5.
12. Dai, A., and T. M. L. Wigley, 2000: Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1283-1286, doi:10.1029/1999GL011140.
13. D'Arrigo, R., R. Villalba, and G. Wiles, 2001: Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability. Climate Dyn., 18, 219-224, doi:10.1007/s003820100177.
14. Dieppois, B., A. Durand, M. Fournier, and N. Massei, 2013: Links between multidecadal and interdecadal climatic oscillations in the North Atlantic and regional climate variability of northern France and England since the 17th century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 4359-4372, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50392.
15. Dong, B., and A. Dai, 2015: The influence of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation on temperature and precipitation over the globe. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x, in press.
16. Fedorov, A., and S. G. H. Philander, 2000: Is El Niño changing? Science, 288, 1997-2002, doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1997.
17. Franks, S. W., and G. Kuczera, 2002: Flood frequency analysis: Evidence and implications of secular climate variability, New South Wales. Water Resour. Res., 38 (5), doi:10.1029/2001WR000232.
18. Gershunov, A., and T. P. Barnett, 1998: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2715-2725, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2715:IMOET>2.0.CO;2.
19. Goddard, L., S. J. Mason, S. E. Zebiak, C. F. Ropelewski, R. Basher, and M. A. Cane, 2001: Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1111-1152, doi:10.1002/joc.636.
20. Gu, D., and S. G. H. Philander, 1997: Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. Science, 275, 805-807, doi:10.1126/science.275.5301.805.
21. Henley, B. J., M. A. Thyer, G. Kuczera, and S. W. Franks, 2011: Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data. Water Resour. Res., 47, W11509, doi:10.1029/2010WR010034.
22. Henley, B. J., M. A. Thyer, and G. Kuczera, 2013: Climate driver informed short-term drought risk evaluation. Water Resour. Res., 49, 2317-2326, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20222.
23. Hoerling, M. P., A. Kumar, and M. Zhong, 1997: El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate, 10, 1769-1786, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1769:ENOLNA>2.0.CO;2.
24. Horel, J. D., and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 813-829, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0813:PSAPAW>2.0.CO;2.
25. Ishak, E. H., A. Rahman, S. Westra, A. Sharma, and G. Kuczera, 2013: Evaluating the non-stationarity of Australian annual maximum flood. J. Hydrol., 494, 134-145, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.021.
26. Jain, S., and U. Lall, 2001: Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future? Water Resour. Res., 37, 3193-3205, doi:10.1029/2001WR000495.
27. Kaplan, A., M. A. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18 567-18 589, doi:10.1029/97JC01736.
28. Khedun, C. P., A. K. Mishra, V. P. Singh, and J. R. Giardino, 2014: Acopula-based precipitation forecast model: Investigating the interdecadal modulation of ENSO's impact on monthly precipitation. Water Resour. Res., 50, 580-600, doi:10.1002/2013WR013763.
29. Kiem, A. S., S. W. Franks, and G. Kuczera, 2003: Multi-decadal variability of flood risk. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1035, doi:10.1029/2002GL015992.
30. King, A. D., L. V. Alexander, and M. G. Donat, 2013: Asymmetry in the response of eastern Australia extreme rainfall to low-frequency Pacific variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2271-2277, doi:10.1002/grl.50427.
31. Kirtman, B., and Coauthors, 2013: Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker, et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 953-1028.
32. Latif, M., and Coauthors, 1998: A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 375-14 393, doi:10.1029/97JC03413.
33. Liu, Z., 2012: Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability: A historical perspective. J. Climate, 25, 1963-1995, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3980.1.
34. Mantua, N. J., S.R. Hare, Y. Q. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069-1079, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.
35. Mardia, K. V., J. T. Kent, and J. M. Bibby, 1976: Multivariate Analysis. Academic Press, 521 pp.
36. McPhaden, M. J., S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz, 2006: ENSO as an integrating concept in Earth science. Science, 314, 1740-1745, doi:10.1126/science.1132588.
37. McPhaden, M. J., T. Lee, and D. McClurg, 2011: El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15709, doi:10.1029/2011GL048275.
38. Micevski, T., S. W. Franks, and G. Kuczera, 2006: Multidecadal variability in coastal eastern Australian flood data. J. Hydrol., 327, 219-225, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.11.017.
39. Neelin, D. J., D. S. Battisti, A. C. Hirst, F. Jin, Y. Wakata, T. Yamagata, and S. E. Zebiak, 1998: ENSO theory. J. Geophys. Res., 103C, 14 261-14 290, doi:10.1029/97JC03424.
40. Newman, M., G. P. Compo, and M. A. Alexander, 2003: ENSOforced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J. Climate, 16, 3853-3857, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3853:EVOTPD>2.0.CO;2.
41. Nicholls, N., and K. K. Wong, 1990: Dependence of rainfall variability on mean rainfall, latitude, and the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 3, 163-170, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<0163:DORVOM>2.0.CO;2.
42. Palmer, T. N., and D. L. T. Anderson, 1994: The prospects for seasonal forecasting-A review paper. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 755-793, doi:10.1002/qj.49712051802.
43. Park, J., and M.E. Mann, 2000: Interannual temperature shifts and shifts in global temperature: A "multiwavelet" correlation approach. Earth Interact., 4, 1-36, doi:10.1175/1087-3562(2000)004<0001:ITEASI>2.3.CO;2.
44. Parker, D. E., and Coauthors, 2007: Decadal to multidecadal climate variability and predictability and the background of climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D18115, doi:10.1029/2007JD008411.
45. Pathiraja, S., S. Westra, and A. Sharma, 2012: Why continuous simulation? The role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation. Water Resour. Res., 48, W06534, doi:10.1029/2011WR010997.
46. Power, S., and R. Colman, 2006: Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model. Climate Dyn., 26, 247-272, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0055-y.
47. Power, S., T. Casey, C. Folland, A. Colman, and V. Mehta, 1999: Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dyn., 15, 319-324, doi:10.1007/s003820050284.
48. Power, S., M. Haylock, R. Colman, and X. Wang, 2006: The predictability of interdecadal changes in ENSO activity and ENSO teleconnections. J. Climate, 19, 4755-4771.
49. Pui, A., A. Lal, and A. Sharma, 2011: How does the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation affect design floods in Australia? Water Resour. Res., 47, W05554, doi:10.1029/2010WR009420.
50. Qian, B., J. Corte-Real, and H. Xu, 2000: Is the North Atlantic Oscillation the most important atmospheric pattern for precipitation in Europe? J. Geophys. Res., 105, 11 901-11 910, doi:10.1029/2000JD900102.
51. Rajagopalan, B., M. E. Mann, and U. Lall, 1998: A multivariate frequency-domain approach to long-lead climatic forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 58-74, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0058:AMFDAT>2.0.CO;2.
52. Rasmusson, E. M., X. L. Wang, and C. F. Ropelewski, 1994: Secular variability of the ENSO cycle. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, National Academies Press, 458-470.
53. Rayner, N. A., and Coauthors, 2006: Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 data set. J. Climate, 19, 446-469, doi:10.1175/JCLI3637.1.
54. Renard, B., and Coauthors, 2008: Regional methods for trend detection: Assessing field significance and regional consistency. Water Resour. Res., 44, W08419, doi:10.1029/2007WR006268.
55. Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith, 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J. Climate, 7, 929-948.
56. Ropelewski, C., and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:GARSPP>2.0.CO;2.
57. Schneider, U., A. Becker, P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, B. Rudolf, and M. Ziese, 2011: GPCC full data reanalysis version 6.0 at 2.5°: Monthly land-surface precipitation from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historic data. Accessed February 2014, doi:10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V6_250.
58. Schneider, U., A. Becker, P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, M. Ziese, and B. Rudolf, 2014: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the globalwater cycle. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 115, 15-40, doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x.
59. Suarez, M. J., and P. S. Schopf, 1988: A delayed action oscillator for ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 3283-3287, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<3283:ADAOFE>2.0.CO;2.
60. Sun, X., M. Thyer, B. Renard, and M. A. Lang, 2014: A general regional frequency analysis framework for quantifying localscale climate effects: A case study of ENSO effects on southeast Queensland rainfall. J. Hydrol., 512, 53-68, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.02.025.
61. Thyer, M., A. J. Frost, and G. Kuczera, 2006: Parameter estimation and model identification for stochastic models of annual hydrological data: Is the observed record long enough? J. Hydrol., 330, 313-328, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.029.
62. Torrence, C., and G. P. Compo, 1998: A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 61-78, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2.
63. Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771-2777, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2.
64. Trenberth, K. E., G. W. Branstator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N.-C. Lau, and C. Ropelewski, 1998: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 103C, 14 291-14 324, doi:10.1029/97JC01444.
65. Ventura, V., C. J. Paciorek, and J. S. Risbey, 2004: Controlling the proportion of falsely rejected hypotheses when conducting multiple tests with climatological data. J. Climate, 17, 4343-4356, doi:10.1175/3199.1.
66. Verdon, D. C., A. M. Wyatt, A. S. Kiem, and S. W. Franks, 2004: Multidecadal variability of rainfall and streamflow: Eastern Australia. Water Resour. Res., 40, W10201, doi:10.1029/2004WR003234.
67. Walker, G. T., 1924: Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, IX: A further study of world weather. Mem. India Meteor. Dept., 24, 275-332.
68. Walland, D., S. Power, and A. Hirst, 2000: Decadal climate variability in the CSIRO coupled general circulation model. Climate Dyn., 16, 201-211, doi:10.1007/s003820050013.
69. Wang, B., and S.-I. An, 2002: A mechanism for decadal changes of ENSO behavior: Roles and background wind changes. Climate Dyn., 18, 475-486, doi:10.1007/s00382-001-0189-5.
70. Wang, X. L., and C. F. Ropelewski, 1995: An assessment of ENSO-scale secular variability. J. Climate, 8, 1584-1599, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1584:AAOESS>2.0.CO;2.
71. Westra, S., and A. Sharma, 2010: An upper limit to seasonal rainfall predictability? J. Climate, 23, 3332-3351, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3212.1.
72. Wilks, D. S., 2006: On "field significance" and the false discovery rate. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 1181-1189, doi:10.1175/JAM2404.1.
73. Wittenberg, A. T., 2009: Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038710.
74. Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2262:AMENO>2.0.CO;2.
75. Zhang, T., J. Perlwitz, and M. Hoerling, 2014: What is responsible for the strong observed asymmetry in teleconnections between El Niño and La Niña? Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1019-1025, doi:10.1002/2013GL058964.
76. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1990-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:ELIV>2.0.CO;2.