Why continuous simulation? the role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation

Water Resources Research

Volumn 48, Issue 6, 2012, Pages

  Pathiraja, S ^a   Westra, S ^b   Sharma, A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACCURATE DESIGN; ANTECEDENT MOISTURE; ANTECEDENT RAINFALL; AUSTRALIA; CONTINUOUS RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS; CONTINUOUS SIMULATION; DAILY RAINFALL; DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS; DESIGN FLOOD; DESIGN FLOOD ESTIMATION; EVENT-BASED METHOD; EVENT-BASED MODEL; FLOOD MODELING; FLOOD PEAK; HEAVY RAINFALL; MODELING FRAMEWORKS; MOISTURE STATE; MURRAY-DARLING BASIN; RAINFALL EVENT; SCALE DEPENDENCE; SHORT TERM MEMORY; TIME-SCALES; WET AND DRY;

CATCHMENTS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DESIGN; ESTIMATION; FLOOD CONTROL; MOISTURE; RUNOFF;

RAIN;

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS; CALIBRATION; CATCHMENT; DESIGN; EVAPORATION; FLOOD; INFILTRATION; MOISTURE CONTENT; NUMERICAL MODEL; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING;

AUSTRALIA; MURRAY-DARLING BASIN;

EID: 84863430456     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011WR010997     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Bates, B. C., Z. W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, and J. P. Palutikof (2008), Clim. Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Clim. Change Rep., 210 pp., IPCC Secretariat, Geneva.
2. Beven, K. J. (2002), Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, 360 pp., John Wiley, New York.
3. Blazkova, S., and K. Beven (2002), Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a catchment treated as ungauged (with uncertainty), Water Resour. Res., 38(8), 1139, doi:10.1029/2001WR000500.
4. Bloschl, G. (2005), Rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged catchments, in Encyclopedia of Hydrology Science, edited by M. G. Anderson. (Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/0470848944.hsa140/abstract.)
5. Boughton, W. (2004), The Australian water balance model, Environ. Model. Software, 19(10), 943-956. (Pubitemid 38991767)
6. Boughton, W., and O. Droop (2003), Continuous simulation for design flood estimation-A review, Environ. Model. Software, 18(4), 309-318. (Pubitemid 36391857)
7. Cameron, D., K. Beven, J. Tawn, S. Blazkova, and P. Naden (1999), Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty), J. Hydrol., 219(3-4), 169-187. (Pubitemid 29341675)
8. Cameron, D., K. Beven, and P. Naden (2000), Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation under climate change (with uncertainty), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4(3), 393-405. (Pubitemid 32258875)
9. Chiew, F. H. S. (2006), An overview of methods for estimating climate change impact on runoff, in 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Launceston, Tasmania, December 2006, Engineers Australia, Barton, Aust. Capital Terr, (CD-ROM, ISBN 0-8582579-0-4).
10. Chowdhury, S., and A. Sharma (2007), Mitigating parameter bias in hydrological modelling due to uncertainty in covariates, J. Hydrol., 340, 197-204. (Pubitemid 46935786)
11. Cordery, I. (1970), Antecedent wetness for design flood estimation, Civil Eng. Trans. Inst. Eng. Aust., CE12(2), 181-184.
12. Cowpertwait, P. S. P., C. G. Kilsby, and P. E. O'Connell (2002), A spacetime Neyman-Scott model of rainfall : Empirical analysis of extremes, Water Resour. Res., 38(8), 1131, doi:10.1029/2001WR000709.
13. Dirmeyer, P. A., C. A. M. Scholsser, and K. L. Brubaker (2009), Precipitation, recycling and land memory: An integrated analysis, J. Hydrometeorol., 10(1), 278-288.
14. Douville, H. (2003), Assessing the influence of soil moisture on seasonal climate variability with AGCMs, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1044-1066. (Pubitemid 38162555)
15. Douville, H., S. Conil, S. Tyteca, and A. Voidoire (2007), Soil moisture memory and West African monsoon predictability : Artefact or reality?, Clim. Dyn., 28, 723-742. (Pubitemid 46672586)
16. Duan, Q. Y., V. K. Gupta, and S. Sorooshian (1993), Shuffled complex evolution approach for effective and efficient global optimisation, J. Opt. Theory Appl., 73(3), 501-521. (Pubitemid 23643003)
17. Heggen, R. (2001), Normalized antecedent precipitation index, J. Hydrol. Eng., 6(5), 377-381. (Pubitemid 32818651)
18. Heneker, T. M., M. Lambert, and G. Kuczera (2001), A point rainfall model for risk-based design, J. Hydrol., 251, 65-87.
19. Jain, S. K., and K. P. Sudheer (2008), Fitting of hydrologic models: A close look at the Nash-Sutcliffe Index, J. Hydrol. Eng., 13(10), 981-987.
20. Jeffrey, S. J., J. O. Carter, K. B. Moodie, and A. R. Beswick (2001), Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data, Environ. Model. Software, 16(4), 309-330. (Pubitemid 32956227)
21. Kavetski, D., G. Kuczera, and S. W. Franks (2006), Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 2. Application, Water Resour. Res., 42(3), W03408, doi:10.1029/2005WR004376.
22. Koster, R., and M. Suarez (2001), Soil moisture memory in climate models, J. Hydrometeorol., 2, 558-570. (Pubitemid 33378796)
23. Kuczera, G., M. Lambert, T. M. Heneker, S. Jennings, A. J. Frost, and P. J. Coombes (2006) Joint probability and design storms at the crossroads, Aust. J. Water Resour., 10(1) 63-79.
24. Kuichling, G. (1889), The relation between the rainfall and the discharge of sewers in populous districts, ASCE Trans., 120, 1-56.
25. Lall, U., and A. Sharma (1996), A nearest neighbor bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series, Water Resour. Res., 32(3), 679-693, doi:10.1029/95WR02966. (Pubitemid 26351903)
26. Lamb, R. (1999), Calibration of a conceptual rainfall runoff model for flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation, Water Resour. Res., 35(10), 3103-3114. (Pubitemid 29461973)
27. Lamb, R., and A. L. Kay (2004), Confidence intervals for a spatially generalized, continuous simulation flood frequency model for Great Britain, Water Resour. Res., 40(7), W07501, doi:10.1029/2003WR002428.
28. Marshall, L., and A. Sharma (2006), Modelling the catchment via mixtures: Issues of model specification and validation, Water Resour. Res., 42, W11409, doi:10.1029/2005WR004613. (Pubitemid 46134880)
29. Mehrotra, R., and A. Sharma (2007), Preserving low-frequency variability in generated daily rainfall sequences, J. Hydrol., 345, 102-120. (Pubitemid 47464356)
30. Milly, P. C. D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, W. Zbigniew, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer (2008), Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science, 319, 573-574. (Pubitemid 351197047)
31. Mulvaney, T. J. (1851), On the use of self-registering rain and flood gauges in making observation of the relation of rainfall and floods discharge in a given catchment, Proc. Inst. Civil Eng. Ireland, 4, 18-31.
32. Oudin, L., A. Kay, V. Andreassian, and C. Perrin (2010), Are seemingly physically similar catchments truly hydrologically similar? Water Resour. Res., 46, W11558, doi:10.1029/2009WR008887.
33. Pilgrim, D. H. (1987), Australian Rainfall and Runoff, The Institution of Engineers, Australia.
34. Pilgrim, D. H., and I. Cordery (1993), Flood runoff, in Handbook of Hydrology, edited by D. R. Maidment, McGraw-Hill, New York, pp. 9.1-9.42.
35. Pui, A., A. Lall, and A. Sharma (2011), How does the interdecadal Pacific oscillation affect design floods in Australia?, Water Resour. Res., 47, W05554, doi:10.1029/2010WR009420.
36. Reichl, J. P. C., A. W. Western, N. R. McIntyre, and F. H. S. Chiew (2009), Optimisation of a similarity measure for estimating ungauged streamflow, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10423, doi:10.1029/2008WR007248.
37. Renard, B., D. Kavetski, G. Kuczera, and M. Thyer (2010), Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors, Water Resour. Res., 46, W05521, doi:10.1029/2009WR008328.
38. Rigby, E. H., and D. J. Bannigan (1996), The embedded design storm concept-A critical review, in Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 1996: Water and the Environment, (online preprints of papers: Natl. Conf. Publ. 96/05), pp. 453-459, Institution of Engineers, Australia, Barton, Aust. Capital Terr.
39. Ropelewski, C., and M. S. Halpert (1987), Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/southern oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
40. Rosso, S., and T. Rigby (2006), The impact of embedded design storms within a catchment, in 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Past, Present and Future, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Engineers Australia, Barton, Aust. Capital Terr., pp. 9-13 (online).
41. Salamon, P., and L. Feyen (2009), Assessing parameter, precipitation, and predictive uncertainty in a distributed hydrological model using sequential data assimilation with the particle filter, J. Hydrol., 376(3-4), 428-442.
42. Savitzky, A., and M. J. E. Golay (1964), Smoothing and differentiation of data by simplified least squares procedures, Anal. Chem., 36(8), 1627-1639.
43. Sharma, A., and R. Mehrotra (2010), Rainfall generation, in Rainfall: State of the Science, edited by F. Testik and M. Gebremichael, p. 32, AGU, Washington, DC.
44. Van den Dool, H. (2007), Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction, 215 pp., Oxford University Press, Oxford.
45. Vaze, J., F. H. S. Chiew, J.-M. Perraud, N. R. Viney, D. A. Post, J. Teng, B. Wang, J. Lerat, and M. Goswami (2011), Rainfall-runoff modelling across southeast Australia: Datasets, models and results, Aust. J. Water Resour., in press.
46. Westra, S., and S. A. Sisson (2011), Detection of non-stationarity in precipitation extremes using a max-stable process model, J. Hydrol., 406, 119-128.
47. Westra, S., I. Varley, P. Jordan, R. J. Nathan, A. Ladson, A. Sharma, and P. Hill (2010), Addressing climatic non-stationarity in the assessment of flood risk, Aust. J. Water Resour., 14(1), 1-16.
48. Westra, S., R. Mehrotra, A. Sharma, and R. Srikanthan (2012), Continuous rainfall simulation: 1-A regionalised sub-daily disaggregation approach, Water Resour. Res., 48,W01535, doi:10.1029/2011WR010489.
49. Wu, W., and R. E. Dickinson (2004), Time scales of layered soil moisture memory in the context of land atmosphere interaction, J. Clim., 17, 2752-2764. (Pubitemid 39066725)