-
1
-
-
77958456200
-
The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions
-
Alessandri A, Borrelli A, Masina S, Pietro PD, Carril A, Cherchi A, Gualdi S, Navarra A. 2010. The INGV-CMCC seasonal prediction system: Improved ocean initial conditions. Mon. Weather Rev. 138: 2930-2952.
-
(2010)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.138
, pp. 2930-2952
-
-
Alessandri, A.1
Borrelli, A.2
Masina, S.3
Pietro, P.D.4
Carril, A.5
Cherchi, A.6
Gualdi, S.7
Navarra, A.8
-
2
-
-
79953224507
-
Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ensembles multimodel seasonal forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER
-
Alessandri A, Borrelli A, Navarra A, Arribas A, Déqué M, Rogel P, Weisheimer A. 2011. Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ensembles multimodel seasonal forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER. Mon. Weather Rev. 139: 581-607.
-
(2011)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.139
, pp. 581-607
-
-
Alessandri, A.1
Borrelli, A.2
Navarra, A.3
Arribas, A.4
Déqué, M.5
Rogel, P.6
Weisheimer, A.7
-
3
-
-
0000626524
-
Expected information as expected utility
-
Bernardo JM. 1979. Expected information as expected utility. Ann. Stat. 7: 686-690.
-
(1979)
Ann. Stat.
, vol.7
, pp. 686-690
-
-
Bernardo, J.M.1
-
4
-
-
57149133822
-
The benefits of multi-analysis and poor-mans ensembles
-
Bowler NE, Arribas A, Mylne KR. 2008. The benefits of multi-analysis and poor-mans ensembles. Mon. Weather Rev. 136: 4113-4129.
-
(2008)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.136
, pp. 4113-4129
-
-
Bowler, N.E.1
Arribas, A.2
Mylne, K.R.3
-
5
-
-
34249087709
-
Scoring probabilistic forecasts: On the importance of being proper
-
Bröcker J, Smith LA. 2006. Scoring probabilistic forecasts: On the importance of being proper. Weather and Forecasting 22: 382-388.
-
(2006)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.22
, pp. 382-388
-
-
Bröcker, J.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
6
-
-
47949105776
-
From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions
-
Bröcker J, Smith LA. 2007. From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus A 60: 663-678.
-
(2007)
Tellus A
, vol.60
, pp. 663-678
-
-
Bröcker, J.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
7
-
-
33748316791
-
Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America
-
Coelho CAS, Stephenson DB, Balmaseda M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, van Oldenborgh GJ. 2006. Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Clim. 19: 3704-3721.
-
(2006)
J. Clim.
, vol.19
, pp. 3704-3721
-
-
Coelho, C.A.S.1
Stephenson, D.B.2
Balmaseda, M.3
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.4
van Oldenborgh, G.J.5
-
8
-
-
18544362809
-
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part II: Calibration and combination
-
Doblas-Reyes FJ, Hagedorn R, Palmer TN. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part II: Calibration and combination. Tellus A 57: 234-252.
-
(2005)
Tellus A
, vol.57
, pp. 234-252
-
-
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1
Hagedorn, R.2
Palmer, T.N.3
-
9
-
-
80051954501
-
-
Technical Memorandum 621. ECMWF: Reading, UK.
-
Doblas-Reyes FJ, Weisheimer A, Palmer TN, Murphy JM, Smith D. 2010. Forecast Quality Assessment of the ENSEMBLES Seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 Hindcasts, Technical Memorandum 621. ECMWF: Reading, UK.
-
(2010)
Forecast Quality Assessment of the ENSEMBLES Seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 Hindcasts
-
-
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1
Weisheimer, A.2
Palmer, T.N.3
Murphy, J.M.4
Smith, D.5
-
10
-
-
0000558731
-
Rational decisions
-
Good IJ. 1952. Rational decisions. J. R. Stat. Soc. XIV: 107-114.
-
(1952)
J. R. Stat. Soc.
, vol.14
, pp. 107-114
-
-
Good, I.J.1
-
11
-
-
67650876188
-
Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette
-
Hagedorn R, Smith LA. 2009. Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette. Meteorol. Appl. 16: 143-155.
-
(2009)
Meteorol. Appl.
, vol.16
, pp. 143-155
-
-
Hagedorn, R.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
12
-
-
18544371178
-
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept
-
Hagedorn R, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept. Tellus A 57: 219-233.
-
(2005)
Tellus A
, vol.57
, pp. 219-233
-
-
Hagedorn, R.1
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
Palmer, T.N.3
-
13
-
-
33646348872
-
Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts
-
Hewitt CD, Griggs DJ. 2004. Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 85: 566.
-
(2004)
Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union
, vol.85
, pp. 566
-
-
Hewitt, C.D.1
Griggs, D.J.2
-
14
-
-
33846934645
-
Quality control of ocean temperature and salinity profiles -historical and real-time data
-
Ingleby B, Huddleston M. 2007. Quality control of ocean temperature and salinity profiles -historical and real-time data. J. Mar. Syst. 65 158-175.
-
(2007)
J. Mar. Syst.
, vol.65
, pp. 158-175
-
-
Ingleby, B.1
Huddleston, M.2
-
15
-
-
32444436651
-
Examination of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction methods using a simple climate system
-
Kang I-S, Yoo J. 2006. Examination of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction methods using a simple climate system. Clim. Dyn. 26: 285-294.
-
(2006)
Clim. Dyn.
, vol.26
, pp. 285-294
-
-
Kang, I.-S.1
Yoo, J.2
-
16
-
-
0000733254
-
A new interpretation of information rate
-
Kelly JL Jr. 1956. A new interpretation of information rate. Bell Syst. Tech. J. 35: 917-926.
-
(1956)
Bell Syst. Tech. J.
, vol.35
, pp. 917-926
-
-
Kelly, J.L.1
-
17
-
-
84885653293
-
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 seasonal to interannual prediction, phase-2 toward developing intra-seasonal prediction
-
Kirtman BP, Min D, Infanti JM, Kinter JL III, Paolino DA, Zhang Q, van den Dool H, Saha S, Mendez MP, Becker E, Peng P, Tripp P, Huang J, DeWitt DG, Tippett MK, Barnston G, Li S, Rosati A, Schubert SD, Rienecker M, Suarez M, Li ZE, Marshak J, Lim Y-K, Tribbia J, Pegion K, Merryfield WJ, Denis B, Wood EF. 2013. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 seasonal to interannual prediction, phase-2 toward developing intra-seasonal prediction. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95: 585-601.
-
(2013)
Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.
, vol.95
, pp. 585-601
-
-
Kirtman, B.P.1
Min, D.2
Infanti, J.M.3
Kinter, J.L.4
Paolino, D.A.5
Zhang, Q.6
van den Dool, H.7
Saha, S.8
Mendez, M.P.9
Becker, E.10
Peng, P.11
Tripp, P.12
Huang, J.13
DeWitt, D.G.14
Tippett, M.K.15
Barnston, G.16
Li, S.17
Rosati, A.18
Schubert, S.D.19
Rienecker, M.20
Suarez, M.21
Li, Z.E.22
Marshak, J.23
Lim, Y.-K.24
Tribbia, J.25
Pegion, K.26
Merryfield, W.J.27
Denis, B.28
Wood, E.F.29
more..
-
18
-
-
0033520451
-
Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble
-
Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, LaRow TE, Bachiochi DR, Zhang Z, Williford CE, Gadgil S, Surendran S. 1999. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science 285 1548-1550.
-
(1999)
Science
, vol.285
, pp. 1548-1550
-
-
Krishnamurti, T.N.1
Kishtawal, C.M.2
LaRow, T.E.3
Bachiochi, D.R.4
Zhang, Z.5
Williford, C.E.6
Gadgil, S.7
Surendran, S.8
-
19
-
-
0001086311
-
Better nonlinear models from noisy data: Attractors with maximum likelihood
-
McSharry PE, Smith LA. 1999. Better nonlinear models from noisy data: Attractors with maximum likelihood. Phys. Rev. Lett. 83: 4285-4288.
-
(1999)
Phys. Rev. Lett.
, vol.83
, pp. 4285-4288
-
-
McSharry, P.E.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
20
-
-
3543083343
-
Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER)
-
Palmer TN, Alessandri A, Andersen U, Cantelaube P, Davey M, Délécluse P, Déqué M, Diez E, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Feddersen H, Graham R, Gualdi S, Guérémy J-F, Hagedorn R, Hoshen M, Keenlyside N, Latif M, Lazar A, Maisonnave E, Marletto V, Morse AP, Orfila B, Rogel P. 2004. Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85 853-872.
-
(2004)
Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.
, vol.85
, pp. 853-872
-
-
Palmer, T.N.1
Alessandri, A.2
Andersen, U.3
Cantelaube, P.4
Davey, M.5
Délécluse, P.6
Déqué, M.7
Diez, E.8
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.9
Feddersen, H.10
Graham, R.11
Gualdi, S.12
Guérémy, J.-F.13
Hagedorn, R.14
Hoshen, M.15
Keenlyside, N.16
Latif, M.17
Lazar, A.18
Maisonnave, E.19
Marletto, V.20
Morse, A.P.21
Orfila, B.22
Rogel, P.23
more..
-
21
-
-
85080838118
-
An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies
-
Peng P, Kumar A, van den Dool H, Barnston AG. 2002. An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies. J. Geophys. Res. 107: 4710, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002712.
-
(2002)
J. Geophys. Res.
, vol.107
, pp. 4710
-
-
Peng, P.1
Kumar, A.2
van den Dool, H.3
Barnston, A.G.4
-
23
-
-
0036646424
-
Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles
-
Rajagopalan B, Lall U, Zebiak SE. 2002. Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 1792-1811.
-
(2002)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.130
, pp. 1792-1811
-
-
Rajagopalan, B.1
Lall, U.2
Zebiak, S.E.3
-
24
-
-
0036612028
-
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory
-
Roulston MS, Smith LA. 2002. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 1653-1660.
-
(2002)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.130
, pp. 1653-1660
-
-
Roulston, M.S.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
25
-
-
0037262706
-
Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles
-
Roulston MS, Smith LA. 2003. Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus 55A: 16-30.
-
(2003)
Tellus
, vol.55A
, pp. 16-30
-
-
Roulston, M.S.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
26
-
-
78649887315
-
Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency
-
Smith DM, Eade R, Dunstone NJ, Fereday D, Murphy JM, Pohlmann H, Scaife AA. 2010. Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nat. Geosci. 3: 846-849.
-
(2010)
Nat. Geosci.
, vol.3
, pp. 846-849
-
-
Smith, D.M.1
Eade, R.2
Dunstone, N.J.3
Fereday, D.4
Murphy, J.M.5
Pohlmann, H.6
Scaife, A.A.7
-
27
-
-
0001977937
-
Identification and prediction of low-dimensional dynamics
-
Smith LA. 1992. Identification and prediction of low-dimensional dynamics. Physica D 58: 50-76.
-
(1992)
Physica D
, vol.58
, pp. 50-76
-
-
Smith, L.A.1
-
29
-
-
84888049213
-
An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models
-
Suckling EB, Smith LA. 2013. An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models. J. Clim. 26: 23.
-
(2013)
J. Clim.
, vol.26
, pp. 23
-
-
Suckling, E.B.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
30
-
-
84932099374
-
-
HM Government document. The Met Office: Devon, UK.(accessed 10 July 2014).
-
The Met Office. 2013. 3-month Outlook for Contingence Planning: User Guidance, HM Government document. The Met Office: Devon, UK. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/g/o/3-month_Outlook_User_Guidance-150.pdf (accessed 10 July 2014).
-
(2013)
3-month Outlook for Contingence Planning: User Guidance
-
-
-
32
-
-
26844445586
-
Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years?
-
van Oldenborgh GJ, Balmaseda MA, Ferranti L, Stockdale TN, Anderson DLT. 2005. Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform statistical ENSO forecast models over the last 15 years? J. Clim. 18: 3240-3249.
-
(2005)
J. Clim.
, vol.18
, pp. 3240-3249
-
-
van Oldenborgh, G.J.1
Balmaseda, M.A.2
Ferranti, L.3
Stockdale, T.N.4
Anderson, D.L.T.5
-
33
-
-
35948979608
-
Dynamically-based seasonal forecast of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP
-
Vitart F, Huddleston MR, Déqué M, Peake D, Palmer TN, Stockdale TN, Davey MK, Ineson S, Weisheimer A. 2007. Dynamically-based seasonal forecast of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34: L16815, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030740.
-
(2007)
Geophys. Res. Lett.
, vol.34
-
-
Vitart, F.1
Huddleston, M.R.2
Déqué, M.3
Peake, D.4
Palmer, T.N.5
Stockdale, T.N.6
Davey, M.K.7
Ineson, S.8
Weisheimer, A.9
-
34
-
-
67349238245
-
Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (19802004)
-
Wang B, Lee J-Y, Kang I-S, Shukla J, Park CK, Kumar A, Schemm J, Cocke S, Kug JS, Luo JJ, Zhou T, Wang B, Fu X, Yun WT, Alves O, Jin E, Kinter J, Kirtman B, Krishnamurti T, Lau N, Lau W, Liu P, Pegion P, Rosati T, Schubert S. 2009. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (19802004). Clim. Dyn. 33: 93-117.
-
(2009)
Clim. Dyn.
, vol.33
, pp. 93-117
-
-
Wang, B.1
Lee, J.-Y.2
Kang, I.-S.3
Shukla, J.4
Park, C.K.5
Kumar, A.6
Schemm, J.7
Cocke, S.8
Kug, J.S.9
Luo, J.J.10
Zhou, T.11
Wang, B.12
Fu, X.13
Yun, W.T.14
Alves, O.15
Jin, E.16
Kinter, J.17
Kirtman, B.18
Krishnamurti, T.19
Lau, N.20
Lau, W.21
Liu, P.22
Pegion, P.23
Rosati, T.24
Schubert, S.25
more..
-
35
-
-
41949124639
-
Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?
-
Weigel AP, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C. 2008. Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts? Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 241C260.
-
(2008)
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.
, vol.134
, pp. 241C260
-
-
Weigel, A.P.1
Liniger, M.A.2
Appenzeller, C.3
-
36
-
-
72049088496
-
ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions and Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs
-
Weisheimer A, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN, Alessandri A, Arribas A, Déqué M, Keenlyside N, MacVean M, Navarra A, Rogel P. 2009. ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions and Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36: L21711, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040896.
-
(2009)
Geophys. Res. Lett.
, vol.36
-
-
Weisheimer, A.1
Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
Palmer, T.N.3
Alessandri, A.4
Arribas, A.5
Déqué, M.6
Keenlyside, N.7
MacVean, M.8
Navarra, A.9
Rogel, P.10
|