Multi-system seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 40, Issue 8, 2013, Pages 1551-1556

  Merryfield, W J ^a   Lee, W S ^a   Wang, W ^b   Chen, M ^b   Kumar, A ^b  

^a ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

multi model ensembles; sea ice prediction; seasonal prediction

Indexed keywords

COMBINED FORECASTS; INTER-ANNUAL PREDICTIONS; MULTI-MODEL COMBINATION; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; PREDICTION SYSTEMS; PROGNOSTIC VARIABLES; SEASONAL FORECASTING; SEASONAL PREDICTION;

CLIMATOLOGY; SEA ICE;

FORECASTING;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; PERSISTENCE; SEA ICE; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ARCTIC OCEAN;

EID: 84877973485     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50317     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., K. C. Armour, C. M. Bitz, and, E. DeWeaver, (2011a), Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations, J. Climate, 24, 231-250.
2. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., C. M. Bitz, and, M. M. Holland, (2011b), Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18,503, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048807.
3. Cavalieri, D., C. Parkinson, P. Gloersenand, and, H. J. Zwally, (1996, updated yearly), Sea ice concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS passive microwave data 1982-2010, National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
4. Chevallier, M, and, D. Salas-Mélia, (2012), The role of sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic sea ice potential predictability: A diagnostic approach with a coupled GCM, J. Climate, 25, 3025-3038.
5. Comiso, J. C., (1986), Characteristics of Arctic winter sea ice from satellite multispectral microwave observations, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 975-994.
6. Comiso, J. C., (1999, updated 2012), Bootstrap sea ice concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS, 1982-2010, National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
7. Flato, G. M., and, W. D. I. Hibler, (1992), Modelling pack ice as a cavitating fluid, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 22, 626-651.
8. Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and, T. N. Palmer, (2005), The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting-I. Basic concept, Tellus, 57A, 219-233.
9. Holland, M. M., D. A. Bailey, and, S. Vavrus, (2011), Inherent sea ice predictability in the rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3, Clim. Dyn., 36, 1239-1253.
10. Hunke, E. C., and, J. K. Dukowicz, (1997), An elastic-viscous-plastic model for sea ice dynamics, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1849-1867.
11. Kharin, V. V., and, F. W. Zwiers, (2002), Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles, J. Climate, 15, 793-799.
12. Kharin, V. V., F. W. Zwiers, Q. Teng, G. J. Boer, J. Derome, and, J. S. Fontecilla, (2009), Skill assessment of seasonal hindcasts from the Canadian Historical Forecast Project, Atmos.-Ocean, 47, 204-223.
13. Kirtman, B. P., and, D. Min, (2009), Multimodel ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2908-2930.
14. Lindsay, R. W., J. Zhang, A. J. Schweiger, and, M. A. Steele, (2008), Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C02,023, doi: 10.1029/2007JC004259.
15. Meier, W. N., J. Stroeve, A. Barrett, and, F. Fetterer, (2012), A simple approach to providing a more consistent Arctic sea ice extent timeseries from the 1950s to present, The Cryosphere Discuss., 6, 2827-2853.
16. Merryfield, W. J., W.-S. Lee, G. J. Boer, V. V. Kharin, J. F. Scinocca, G. M. Flato, R. S. Ajayamohan, J. C. Fyfe, Y. Tang, and, S. Polavarapu, (2013), The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I. Models and initialization), Mon. Wea. Rev., doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00216.1.
17. NRC (2010), Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
18. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and, A. Kaplan, (2003), Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670.
19. Saha, S., et al. (2010), The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015-1057.
20. Sigmond, M., J. C. Fyfe, G. M. Flato, V. V. Kharin, and, W. J. Merryfield, (2013), Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 529-534, doi: 10.1002/grl.50129.
21. Wang, W., M. Chen, and, A. Kumar, (2012), Seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice extent from a coupled dynamical forecast system, Mon. Wea. Rev., doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00057.1.
22. Winton, M., (2000), A reformulated three-layer sea ice model, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 17, 525-531.