Linking plant disease models to climate change scenarios to project future risks of crop diseases: A review

Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection

Volumn 122, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 3-15

  Juroszek, Peter ^a   Von Tiedemann, Andreas ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GÖTTINGEN   (Germany)

Author keywords

Adaptation option; Crop protection; Disease forecast and modelling; Disease risk; Plant pathogen

Indexed keywords

AGRONOMY; CANOLA; CIRCULATION MODELING; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP YIELD; DISEASE INCIDENCE; FORECASTING METHOD; FUTURE PROSPECT; LIFE CYCLE; PATHOGEN; RISK ASSESSMENT; SURVIVAL; VINE; VIRAL DISEASE; WHEAT;

BRAZIL; EUROPE;

BRASSICA NAPUS; FUSARIUM; MYCOSPHAERELLA GRAMINICOLA; PERONOSPORACEAE; PHOMA; TRITICUM AESTIVUM; VITIS;

EID: 84924386032     PISSN: 18613829     EISSN: 18613837     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/bf03356525     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Alves MC, Carvalho LG, Pozza EA, Sanches L & Maia JCS, 2011. Ecological zoning of soybean rust, coffee rust and banana black sigatoka based on Brazilian climate changes. Procedia Environ Sci 6, 35-49.
2. Baker RHA, Sansford CE, Jarvis CH, Cannon, RJC, MacLeod A & Walters KFA, 2000. The role of climatic mapping in predicting the potential geographical distribution of non-indigenous pests under current and future climate. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82, 57-71.
3. Bancal MO & Gate P, 2011. Climate change and the wheat crop: the main impacts. In: Brisson N, Levrault F (Eds.) Climate change, agriculture and forests in France: simulations of the impacts on the main species. The Green Book of the CLIMATOR project (2007–2010), part C (The crops), section C2 Wheat, ADEME, 155-162.
4. Barnes AP, Wreford A, Butterworth MH, Semenov MA, Moran D, Evans N & Fitt BDL, 2010. Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change. J Agric Sci 148, 683-694.
5. Bregaglio S, Donatelli M & Confalonieri R, 2013. Fungal infections of rice, wheat, and grape in Europe in 2030–2050. Agron Sustain Dev 33, 767-776.
6. Butterworth MH, Semenov MA, Barnes A, Moran D, West JS & Fitt BDL, 2010. North-south divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England. J R Soc Interface 7, 123-130.
7. Caffarra A, Rinaldi M, Eccel E, Rossi V & Pertot I, 2012. Modelling the impact of climate change on the interaction between grapevine and its pests and pathogens: European grapevine moth and powdery mildew. Agric Ecosyst Environ 148, 89-101.
8. Chakraborty S, Tiedemann A V & Teng PS, 2000. Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases. Environ Pollut 108, 317-326.
9. Coakley SM, Scherm H & Chakraborty S, 1999. Climate change and plant disease management. Ann Rev Phytopathol 37, 399-426.
10. Elad Y & Pertot I, 2014. Climate change impacts on plant pathogens and plant diseases. J Crop Improv 28, 99-139.
11. Evans N, Butterworth MH, Baierl A, Semenov MA, West JS, Barnes A, Moran D & Fitt BDL 2010. The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Sec 2, 143-156.
12. Evans N, Baierl A, Semenov MA, Gladders P & Fitt BDL, 2008. Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming. J R Soc Interface 5, 525-531.
13. Fernandes JM, Cunha GR, Del Ponte E, Pavan W, Pires JL, Baethgen W, Gimenez A, Margin G & Travasso MI, 2004. Modeling fusarium ear blight in wheat under climate change using linked process-based models. In: Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Fusarium Head Blight, incorporating the 8th European Fusarium Seminar, 11–15 Dec 2004, Orlando, USA, 441-443.
14. Garrett KA, Forbes GA, Savary S, Skelsey P, Sparks AH, Valdivia C, van Bruggen AHC, Willocquet L, Djurle A, Duveiller E, Eckersten H, Pande S, Vera Cruz C & Yuen J, 2011. Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease. Plant Pathol 60, 15-30.
15. Garrett KA, Dendy SP, Frank EE, Rouse MN & Travers SE, 2006. Climate change effects on plant disease: genomes to ecosystems. Ann Rev Phytopathol 44, 489-509.
16. Ghini R, Hamada E, Goncalves RRV, Gasparotto L & Pereira JCR, 2007. Risk analysis of climatic change on black Sigatoka on banana in Brazil. Fitopatol Bras 32, 197-204. In Portuguese with English abstract.
17. Ghini R, Hamada E, Junior MJP & Goncalves RRV, 2011. Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change. Summa Phytopathol 37, 85-93.
18. Gouache D, Bensadoun A, Brun F, Page C, Makowski D & Wallach D, 2013. Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: Accounting for climate model and disease uncertainty. Agric For Meteorol 170, 242-252.
19. Gouache D, Roche R, Pieri P & Bancal MO, 2011. Evolution of some pathosystems on wheat and vines. In: Brisson N, Levrault F (Eds.) Climate change, agriculture and forests in France: simulations of the impacts on the main species. The Green Book of the CLIMATOR project (2007–2010), part C (The crops), section B5 Health, ADEME, 113-126.
20. Hirschi M, Stoeckli S, Dubrovsky M, Spirig C, Calanca P, Rotach MW, Fischer AM, Duffy B & Samietz J, 2011. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modelling in Switzerland. Earth Syst Dyn Dissuss 2, 493-529.
21. Jesus Junior WC, Valadares Junior R, Cecilio RA, Moraes WB, Vale FXR, Alves FR & Paul PA, 2008. Worldwide geographical distribution of black sigatoka for banana: predictions based on climate change models. Sci Agric 65, 40-53.
22. Jones RAC & Barbetti MJ, 2012. Influence of climate change on plant disease infections and epidemics caused by viruses and bacteria. CAB Rev 7, No. 022, 31 pp.
23. Juroszek P & Tiedemann A V, 2013a. Plant diseases, insect pests and weeds in a changing global climate: a review of approaches, challenges, research gaps, key studies and concepts. J Agric Sci 151, 163-188.
24. Juroszek P & Tiedemann A V, 2013b. Climate change and potential future risks through wheat diseases: a review. Eur J Plant Pathol 136, 21-33.
25. Juroszek P & Tiedemann A V, 2013c. Climatic changes and the future importance of maize diseases: a short review. J Plant Dis Protect 120, 49-56.
26. Juroszek P & Tiedemann A V, 2011. Potential strategies and future requirements for plant disease management under a changing climate. Plant Pathol 60, 100-112.
27. KLIFF-Crop Production: Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Research in Lower Saxony, Germany, http://www.kliff-niedersachsen.de.vweb5-test.gwdg.de/?page_id=21, in German (KLIFF Flyer in English available).
28. Krengel S, Klocke B, Seidel P & Freier B, 2014. Changes in the occurrence of plant diseases, pests and their natural enemies. In: Lozan JL, Grassel H, Karbe L & Jendritzky (Hrsg.). Warnsignal Klima: Gefahren für Pflanzen, Tiere und Menschen. 2. Auflage, Elektronische Veröffentlichung (Kap. 4.3) – (www.warnsignale.uni-hamburg.de). In German with English abstract.
29. Lalic B, Jankovic D & Ninkov M, 2013. Assessment of climate change impact on downy mildew appearance in Serbia using ECHAM5 climate model outputs. Proceedings of the Conference Environmental Changes and Adaptation Strategies, Skalica, Slovakia, 9–11 September 2013, 4 pp.
30. Launay M, Caubel J, Bourgeois G, Huard F, Cortazar-Atauri IG, Bancal MO & Brisson N, 2014. Climatic indicators for crop infection risk: Application to climate change impacts on five major foliar diseases in Northern France. Agric Ecosyst Environ 197, 147-158.
31. Luo Y, TeBeest DO, Teng PS & Fabellar NG, 1995. Simulation studies on risk analysis of rice blast epidemics associated with global climate change in several Asian countries. J Biogeogr 22, 673-678.
32. Madgwick JW, West JS, White RP, Semenov MA, Townsend JA, Turner JA & Fitt BDL, 2011. Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK. Eur J Plant Pathol 130, 117-131.
33. Manici LM, Bregaglio S & Fumagalli D, 2014. Modelling soil borne fungal pathogens of arable crops under climate change. Int J Biometeorol, published online 14 March 2014 (DOI: 10.1007/s00484-014-0808-6).
34. Melloy P, Hollaway G, Luck J, Norton R, Aitken E & Chakraborty S, 2010. Production and fitness of Fusarium pseudograminearum inoculum at elevated carbon dioxide in FACE. Global Change Biol. 16, 3363-3373.
35. Moraes WB, Jesus Junior WC, Peixoto LA, Moraes WB, Furtado EL, Silva L, Cecilio RA & Alves FR, 2012a. An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change. Summa Phytopathol 38, 30-35.
36. Moraes WB, Jesus Junior WC, Peixoto LA, Moraes WB, Coser SM & Alves FR, 2012b. Impact of climate change on the phoma leaf spot of coffee in Brazil. Interciencia 37, 272-278.
37. Moraes WB, Peixoto LD, Jesus Junior WC, Moraes WB & Cecilio RA, 2011. Impacts of climate change on the risk on occurrence of the southern corn rust of the maize in Brasil Enciclop Biosf 7, 1-12. In Portuguese with English abstract.
38. Olesen JE, Trnka M, Kersebaum KC, Skjelvag AO, Seguin B, Peltonen-Sainio P, Rossi F, Kozyra J & Micale F, 2011. Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change. Eur J Agronomy 34, 96-112.
39. Pautasso M, Döring TF, Garbelotto M, Pellis L & Jeger MJ, 2012. Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends. Eur J Plant Pathol 133, 295-313.
40. Racca P, Kleinhenz B, Hau B & Kuhn C, 2013a. Einfluss des Klimawandels auf das Erstauftreten der Blattkrankheiten Cercospora (Cercospora beticola), Mehltau (Erysiphe betae), Rost (Uromyces betae) und Ramularia (Ramularia beticola) in Zuckerrübenanbauregionen in Niedersachsen. KLIFF Klimafolgenforschung in Niedersachsen. Vom glo balen Klimawandel zu regionalen Anpassungsstrategien, 02–03 September 2013, Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen, Deutschland, 110-111. In German.
41. Racca P, Kleinhenz B, Hau B & Kuhn C, 2013b. Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Ontogenese des Winterweizens und die Blattkrankheiten Mehltau (Blumeria graminis), Braunrost (Puccinia triticina), DTR (Drechslera tritici-repentis) und Septoria (Septoria tritici) in ausgewählten Regionen in Niedersachsen. KLIFF Klimafolgenforschung in Niedersachsen. Vom globalen Klimawandel zu regionalen Anpassungsstrategien, 02–03 September 2013, Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen, Deutschland, 111-112. In German.
42. Racca P, Richerzhagen D, Kuhn C, Kleinhenz B & Hau B, 2012. Impact of climate change on the ontogenetic development and on the leaf diseases powdery mildew, leaf rust and tan spot of winter wheat in Lower Saxony. Julius-Kühn-Archiv 438, 135-136. In German.
43. Raymundo AD & Pangga IB, 2011. Simulation modeling of bunchy top epidemics in a changing climate. J Environ Sci Management 14, 13-20.
44. Richerzhagen D, Racca P, Zeuner T, Kuhn C, Falke K, Kleinhenz B & Hau B, 2011. Impact of climate change on the temporal and regional occurrence of Cercospora leaf spot in Lower Saxony. J Plant Dis Prot 118, 168-177.
45. Salam MU, MacLeod WJ, Salam KP, Maling T & Barbetti MJ, 2011. Impact of climate change in relation to ascochyta blight on field pea in Western Australia. Austral Plant Pathol 40, 397-406.
46. Salinari F, Giosue S, Rossi V, Tubiello FN, Rosenzweig C & Gullino ML, 2007. Downy mildew outbreaks on grapevine under climate change: elaboration and application of an empirical-statistical model. OEPP/EPPO Bulletin 37, 317-326.
47. Salinari F, Giosue S, Tubiello FN, Rettori A, Rossi V, Spanna F, Rosenzweig C & Gullino ML, 2006. Downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) epidemics on grapevine under climate change. Global Change Biol 12, 1299-1307.
48. Seidel P, 2014. Extreme weather and influences on plant pests: extreme knowledge gaps. Ges Pflanz 66, 83-92. In German with English abstract.
49. Shabani F & Kumar L, 2013. Risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in areas suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) cultivation under various climate change projections. PLOS ONE 8, e83404 (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0083404).
50. Shaw MW, 2009. Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change. Plant Protec Sci, 45, S3-S10.
51. Siebold M & Tiedemann A V, 2013. Effects of experimental warming on fungal disease progress in oilseed rape. Global Change Biol 6, 1736-1747.
52. Siebold M & Tiedemann A V, 2012. Potential effects of global warming on oilseed rape pathogens in Northern Germany. Fung Ecol 5, 62-72.
53. Sierra J, Brisson N, Ripoche D & Deque M, 2010. Modelling the impact of thermal adaptation of soil microorganisms and crop system on the dynamics of organic matter in a tropical soil under a climate change scenario. Ecol Modelling 221, 2850-2858.
54. Sparks AH, Forbes GA, Hijmans RJ & Garrett KA, 2014. Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight. Global Change Biol 20, 3621-3631.
55. Srivastava A, Kumar SN & Aggarwal PK, 2010. Assessment of vulnerability of sorghum to climate change in India. Agric Ecosyst Environ 138, 160-169.
56. Strand JF, 2000. Some agrometeorological aspects of pest and disease management for the 21st century. Agric For Meteorol 103, 73-82.
57. Sutherst RW, Constable F, Finlay KJ, Harrington R, Luck J & Zalucki MP, 2011. Adapting to crop pest and pathogen risks under a changing climate. Wiley Interdisciplinary Rev: Climate Change 2, 220-237.
58. Thompson SE, Levin S & Rodriquez-Iturbe I, 2014. Rainfall and temperature changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios. Global Change Biol 20, 1299-1312.
59. Tiedemann A V, 1996. Global atmospheric and climatic change – what are the implications for plant protection? Nachrichtenbl Deut Pflanzenschutzd 48, 73-79. In German with English abstract.
60. Van der Fels-Klerx HJ, Goedhart PW, Elen O, Börjesson T, Hietaniemi V & Booij CJH, 2012. Modeling deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in northwestern Europe for climate change assessments. J Food Protec 75, 1099-1106.
61. Van der Waals JE, Krüger K, Franke AC, Haverkort AJ & Steyn JM, 2013. Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems 3. Effects on relative development rates of selected pathogens and pests. Potato Res 56, 67-84.
62. Volk T, Epke K, Gerstner V, Leuthner C, Rotterdam A, Johnen A & von Richthofen JS, 2010. Klimawandel in Nordrhein-Westfalen–Auswirkungen auf Schädlinge und Pilzkrankheiten wichtiger Ackerbaukulturen. Abschlussbericht, pro-Plant GmbH, Münster. In German.
63. West JS, Townsend JA, Stevens M & Fitt BDL, 2012. Comparative biology of different plant pathogens to estimate effects of climate change on crop diseases in Europe. Eur J Plant Pathol 133, 315-331.
64. Weigel HJ, 2005. Healthy plants in the future: how does climate change affect crop production? Ges Pflanz 57, 6-17. In German with English abstract.
65. Wittchen U & Freier B, 2008. Use of data-series and simulation models for assessment of influence of climate change on the development of pests in agricultural crops. Nachrichtenbl Deut Pflanzenschutzd 60, 157-162. In German with English abstract.
66. Wolfe DW, Ziska L, Petzoldt C, Seaman A, Chase L & Hayhoe K, 2008. Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 13, 555-575.
67. Yamamura K & Yokozawa M, 2002. Prediction of a geographical shift in the prevalence of rice stripe virus disease transmitted by the small brown planthopper, Laodelphax striatellus (Fallen) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), under global warming. Appl Entomol Zool 37, 181-190.
68. Zhang X, Halder J, White RP, Hughes DJ, Ye Z, Wang C, Xu R, Gan B & Fitt BDL, 2014. Climate change increases risk of fusarium ear blight on wheat in central China. Aspects Appl Biol 164, 384-395.