Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: Accounting for climate model and disease model uncertainty

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

Volumn 170, Issue , 2013, Pages 242-252

  Gouache, David ^a   Bensadoun, Arnaud ^b   Brun, François ^b   Pagé, Christian ^c   Makowski, David ^d   Wallach, Daniel ^b  

^a ARVALIS Institut du Végétal Chemin des Bissonnets   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ DE TOULOUSE   (France)

^c CERFACS   (France)

^d INRA Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique   (France)

Author keywords

Bayesian method; Climate change; Disease model; Global warming; Metropolis Hastings; Parameter estimation; Septoria tritici; Triticum aestivum L.; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHM; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DISEASE PREVALENCE; DISEASE SEVERITY; FUNGAL DISEASE; FUNGUS; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GAS; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WHEAT;

FRANCE;

MYCOSPHAERELLA GRAMINICOLA; TRITICUM AESTIVUM;

EID: 84872936776     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.019     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Anon., 2001. Growth stages of mono-and dicotyledonous plants. BBCH Monograph. Ed. Meier U., 14-16.
2. Audsley E., Milne A., Paveley N. A foliar disease model for use in wheat disease management decision support systems. Ann. Appl. Biol. 2005, 147:161-172.
3. Bancal M.O., Robert C., Ney B. Modelling wheat growth and yield losses from late epidemics of foliar diseases using loss of green area per layer and pre-anthesis reserves. Ann. Bot. 2007, 100:777-789.
4. Boé J., Terray L., Martin E., Habets F. Projected changes in components of the hydrological cycle in French river basins during the 21st century. Water Resour. Res. 2009, 45. W08426.
5. CCAFS, 2009. Provisional Medium Term Plan: 2010-2012. Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). The Alliance of the CGIAR Centers and ESSP, Rome and Paris.
6. Ceglar A., Crepinsek Z., Kajfez-Bogataj L., Pogacar T. The simulation of phenological development in dynamic crop model: the Bayesian comparison of different methods. Agric. For. Met. 2011, 151:101-115.
7. Chakraborty S., Newton A.C. Climate change, plant diseases and food security: an overview. Plant Pathol. 2011, 60:2-14.
8. Challinor A.J., Ewert F., Arnold S., Simelton E., Fraser E. Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J. Exp. Bot. 2009, 60:2775-2789.
9. Christensen J. H., Hewitson B., Busuioc A., Chen A., Gao X., Held I., Jones R., Kolli R. K., Kwon W. T., Laprise R., Magaña Rueda V., Mearns L., Menéndez C. G., Räisänen J., Rinke A., Sarr A., Whetton P., 2007. Regional Climate Projections, in: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L. (Eds.), 2007. Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
10. Du Cheyron P., Morris P. Variétés de blé tendre: caractéristiques des variétés inscrites au catalogue en 2010. Perspectives Agricoles 2010, 367:46-51.
11. Ducharne, A., Habets, F., Déqué, M., Evaux, L., Hachour, A., Lepaillier, A., Lepelletier, T., Martin, E., Oudin, L., Pagé, C., Ribstein, P., Sauquet, E., Thiéry, D., Terray, L., Viennot, P., Boé, J., Bourqui, M., Crespi, O., Gascoin, S., Rieu, J., 2009. Projet RExHySS: Impact du changement climatique sur les Ressources en eau et les Extrêmes Hydrologiques dans les bassins de la Seine et la Somme. Rapport de fin de contrat, programme GICC, September 2009. 62 pp.
12. Evans N., Baierl A., Semenov M.A., Gladders P., Fitt B.D.L. Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming. J. R. Soc. Interface 2008, 5:525-531.
13. Evans N., Butterworth M.H., Baierl A., Semenov M.A., West J.S., Barnes A., Moran D., Fitt B.D.L. The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Secur. 2010, 2:143-156.
14. Eyal Z. The Septoria tritici and Stagonospora nodorum blotch diseases of wheat. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 1999, 105:629-641.
15. Fernandes J.M., Cunha G.R., Del Ponte E., Pavan W., Pires J.L., Baethgen W., Gimenez A., Magrin G., Travasso M.I. Modeling fusarium head blight in wheat under climate change using linked process-based models. 2nd International Symposium on Fusarium HeadBlight; Incorporating the 8th European Fusarium Seminar 2004, 441-444. S.M. Canty, T. Boring, K. Versdahl, J. Wardwell, R.W. Ward (Eds.).
16. Fitt B.D.L., Fraaije B.A., Chandramohan P., Shaw M.W. Impacts of changing air composition on severity of arable crop disease epidemics. Plant Pathol. 2011, 60:44-53.
17. Fowler H.J., Blenkinsop S., Tebaldi C. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. Int. J. Climatol 2007, 27:1547-1578.
18. Garrett K.A., Dendy S.P., Frank E.E., Rouse M.N., Travers S.E. Climate change effects on plant disease: genomes to ecosystems. Annu. Rev. Phytopath. 2006, 44:489-509.
19. Garrett K.A., Forbes G.A., Savary S., Skelsey P., Sparks A.H., Valdivia C., van Bruggen A.H.C., Willocquet L., Djurle A., Duveiller E., Eckersten H., Pande S., Vera Cruz C., Yuen J. Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease. Plant Pathol. 2011, 60:15-30.
20. Gate P. Ecophysiologie du blé: de la plante à la culture 1995, Lavoisier Editeur, Paris, France.
21. Gate, P., Brisson, N., 2010. Anticipation des stades phénologiques et raccourcissement des phases, in: Brisson, N., Levrault, F. (Eds.), Changement climatique, agriculture et forêt en France: simulations d'impacts sur les principales espèces. Le Livre Vert du projet CLIMATOR (2007-2010). ADEME, Angers, France, pp. 65-78.
22. Gelman A., Carlin J.B., Stern H.S., Rubin D.B. Bayesian Data Analysis 2004, Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL, USA.
23. Gibelin A.L., Déqué M. Anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model. Clim. Dyn. 2003, 20:327-339.
24. Gladders P., Paveley N.D., Barrie I.A., Hardwick N.V., Hims M.J., Langton S., Taylor M.C. Agronomic and meteorological factors affecting the severity of leaf blotch caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola in commercial wheat crops in England. Ann. Appl. Biol. 2001, 138:301-311.
25. Gouache, D., Roche, R., Pieri, P., Bancal, M.O., 2010. évolution de quelques pathosystèmes sur le blé et la vigne, in: Brisson, N., Levrault, F. (Eds.). 2010. Changement climatique, agriculture et forêt en France: simulations d'impacts sur les principales espèces. Le Livre Vert du projet CLIMATOR (2007-2010). ADEME, Angers, France, pp. 65-78.
26. Gregory P.J., Johnson S.N., Newton A.C., Ingram J.S.I. Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate. J. Exp. Bot. 2009, 60:2827-2838.
27. HGCA, 2011. (accessed 02.02.11). http://www.hgca.com/minisite_manager.output/1526/1526/Knowledge%20Centre/Current%20Market%20Outlook/World%20wheat%20exports.mspx%3FminisiteId=11.
28. Howden S.M., Soussana J.F., Tubiello F.N., Chhetri N., Dunlop M., Meinke H. Adapting agriculture to climate change. PNAS 2007, 104:19691-19696.
29. Jacques J., Lavergne C., Devictor N. Sensitivity analysis in presence of model uncertainty and correlated inputs. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe 2006, 91:1126-1134.
30. Jørgensen, L.N., Jahn, M., Clark, B., Antichi, D., Góral, T., Schepers, H., Lucas, P., Gouache, D., Hornok, L., 2008. Report on Best control practices of diseases in winter wheat in 8 countries in the EU. ENDURE Project report DR1.2.
31. Juroszek P., von Tiedemann A. Potential strategies and future requirements for plant disease management under a changing climate. Plant Pathol. 2011, 60:100-112.
32. Katz R.W. Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Clim. Res. 2002, 20:167-185.
33. Kennedy M.C., O'Hagan A. Bayesian calibration of computer models. J. R. Statist. Soc. B 2001, 63:425-464.
34. Li Q., 2005. Elaboration d'un modèle dynamique d'estimation de l'indice foliaire du blé (variété Soissons). Masters thesis. Université Paris XI.
35. Lovell D.J., Parker S.R., Hunter T., Royle D.J., Coker R.R. Influence of crop growth and structure on the risk of epidemics by Mycosphaerella graminicola (Septoria tritici) in winter wheat. Plant Pathol 1997, 46:126-138.
36. Lovell D.J., Hunter T., Powers S.J., Parker S.R., Van den Bosch F. Effect of temperature on latent period of septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat under outdoor conditions. Plant Pathol. 2004, 53:170-181.
37. Luck J., Spackman M., Freeman A., Trebicki P., Griffiths W., Finlay K., Chakraborty S. Climate change and diseases of food crops. Plant Pathol. 2011, 60:113-121.
38. Luo Y., Teng P.S., Fabellar N.G., Te Beest D.O. The effects of global temperature change on rice leaf blast epidemics: a simulation study in three agroecological zones. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 1998, 68:187-196.
39. Madden L.V., Hughes G. Sampling for plant disease incidence. Phytopathology 1999, 89:1088-1103.
40. Madgwick J., West J., White R., Semenov M., Townsend J., Turner J., Fitt B. Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 2011, 1-15.
41. Magboul A.M., Geng S., Gilchrist D.G., Jackson L.F. Environmental influence on the infection of wheat by Mycosphaerella-Graminicola. Phytopathology 1992, 82:1407-1413.
42. Moreau J.M., Maraite H. Development of an interactive decision-support system on a Web site for control of Mycosphaerella graminicola in winter wheat. EPPO Bull. 2000, 30:161-163.
43. Olesen J.E., Carter T.R., Díaz-Ambrona C.H., Fronzek S., Heidmann T., Hickler T., Holt T., Minguez M.I., Morales P., Palutikof J.P., Quemada M., Ruiz-Ramos M., Rubæk G.H., Sau F., Smith B., Sykes M.T. Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Clim. Change 2007, 81:123-143.
44. Pagé, C., Terray, L., Boé, J., 2009. dsclim: A software package to downscale climate scenarios at regional scale using a weather-typing based statistical methodology. Technical Report TR/CMGC/09/21. SUC au CERFACS, URA CERFACS/CNRS No1875, Toulouse, France.
45. Pangga I.B., Hanan J., Chakraborty S. Pathogen dynamics in a crop canopy and their evolution under changing climate. Plant Pathol. 2011, 60:70-81.
46. Pietravalle S., Shaw M.W., Parker S.R., Van den Bosch F. Modeling of relationships between weather and Septoria tritici epidemics on winter wheat: a critical approach. Phytopathology 2003, 93:1329-1339.
47. R Development Core Team, 2010. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL . http://www.r-project.org/.
48. Robert C.P., Casella G. Monte Carlo Statistical Methods 2004, Springer, New York. second ed.
49. Robert C., Fournier C., Andrieu B., Ney B. Coupling a 3D virtual wheat (Triticum aestivum) plant model with a Septoria tritici epidemic model (Septo3D): a new approach to investigate plant-pathogen interactions linked to canopy architecture. Funct. Plant Biol. 2008, 35:997-1013.
50. Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Yang X.B., Epstein P.R., Chivian E. Climate change and extreme weather events. Global Change Human Health 2001, 2:90-104.
51. Ruiz-Ramos M., Minguez M.I. Evaluating uncertainty in climate change impacts on crop productivity in the Iberian Peninsula. Clim. Res. 2010, 44:69-82.
52. Salinari F., Giosue S., Tubiello F.N., Rettori A., Rossi V., Spanna F., Rosenzweig C., Gullino M.L. Downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) epidemics on grapevine under climate change. Global Change Biol. 2006, 12:1299-1307.
53. Seem R.C., Magarey R.D., Zack J.W., Russo J.M. Estimating disease risk at the whole plant level with General Circulation Models. Environ. Pollut. 2000, 108:389-395.
54. Semenov M.A., Stratonovitch P. Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Clim. Res. 2010, 41:1-14.
55. Shaw M.W. Epidemiology of Mycosphaerella graminicola and Phaeosphaeria nodorum: an overview. Septoria and Stagonospora Diseases of Cereals: A Compilation of Global Research, 5th International Septoria Workshop. CIMMYT, Mexico 1999, 93-97. M. van Ginkel, A. McNab, J. Krupinsky (Eds.).
56. Shaw M.W., Osborne T.M. Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change. Plant Pathol. 2011, 60:31-43.
57. Shaw M.W., Royle D.J. Factors determining the severity of epidemics of Mycosphaerella graminicola (Septoria tritici) on winter-wheat in the UK. Plant Pathol. 1993, 42:882-899.
58. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L. (Eds.), 2007. Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
59. Stirling A. Keep it complex. Nature 2010, 468:1029-1031.
60. Suffert F., Sache I., Lannou C. Early stages of Septoria tritici blotch epidemics of winter wheat: build-up, overseasoning, and release of primary inoculum. Plant Pathol. 2010, 10.1111/j. 1365-3059.2010.02369.x.
61. Tao F., Yokozawa M., Zhang Z. Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: a new process-based model development, optimization, and uncertainties analysis. Agric. For. Met. 2009, 149:831-850.
62. Tao F., Zhang Z., Liu J., Yokozawa M. Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric. For. Met. 2009, 149:1266-1278.
63. Te Beest D.E., Shaw M.W., Pietravalle S., Van den Bosch F. A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat. Eur. J. Plant Pathol. 2009, 124:413-425.
64. Te Beest D.E., Shaw M.W., Paveley N.D., Van den Bosch F. Evaluation of a predictive model for Mycosphaerella graminicola for economic and environmental benefits. Plant Pathol. 2009, 58:1001-1009.
65. Turner J.A. Tracking changes in the importance and distribution of diseases under climate change. Proceedings HGCA R&D Conference: Arable Cropping in a Changing Climate 2008 2008, 68-77.