Assessment of modes of interannual variability of southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models

Journal of Climate

Volumn 27, Issue 21, 2014, Pages 8107-8125

  Grainger, Simon ^a   Frederiksen, Carsten S ^a   Zheng, Xiaogu ^b  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

^b BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Climate prediction; General circulation models; Interannual variability; Ranking methods; Southern Hemisphere; Teleconnections

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; RANKING METHODS; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; TELECONNECTIONS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; RANKING; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; TELECONNECTION;

EID: 84916204303     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00251.1     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Bellenger,H., E.Guilyardi, J. Leloup,M. Lengaigne, and J.Vialard, 2014: ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dyn., 42, 1999-2018, doi:10.1007/ s00382-013-1783-z.
2. Bromwich, D. H., and R. L. Fogt, 2004: Strong trends in the skill of the ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses in the high and midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, 1958-2001. J. Climate, 17, 4603-4619, doi:10.1175/3241.1.
3. Brown, J. N., C. Langlais, and C. Maes, 2014: Zonal structure and variability of the western Pacific dynamic warm pool edge in CMIP5. Climate Dyn., 42, 3061-3076, doi:10.1007/ s00382-013-1931-5.
4. Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments, and irreversibility. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1029-1136.
5. Compo, G. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1-28, doi:10.1002/qj.776.
6. Deser, C., and A. S. Phillips, 2009: Atmospheric circulation trends, 1950-2000: The relative roles of sea surface temperature forcing and direct atmospheric radiative forcing. J. Climate, 22, 396-413, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2453.1.
7. Deser, C., and A. S. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2012: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 527-546, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
8. Eyring, V., and Coauthors, 2013: Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 5029-5060, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50316.
9. Fogt, R. L., D. H. Bromwich, and K. M. Hines, 2011: Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO teleconnection. Climate Dyn., 36, 1555-1576, doi:10.1007/ s00382-010-0905-0.
10. Folland, C. K., J. Shukla, J. Kinter, and M. J. Rodwell, 2002: The climate of the twentieth century project. CLIVAR Exchanges, Vol. 7, No. 2, International CLIVAR Project Office, Southampton, United Kingdom, 37-39.
11. Forster, P. M., T. Andrews, P. Good, J. M. Gregory, L. S. Jackson, and M. Zelinka, 2013: Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1139- 1150, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50174.
12. Frederiksen, C. S., and X. Zheng, 2007a: Variability of seasonalmean fields arising from intraseasonal variability. Part 3: Application to SH winter and summer circulations. Climate Dyn., 28, 849-866, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0214-9.
13. Frederiksen, C. S., and X. Zheng, 2007b: Coherent patterns of interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation: The role of intraseasonal variability. Frontiers in Turbulence and Coherent Structures, J. Denier, and J. S. Frederiksen, Eds., World Scientific Lecture Notes in Complex Systems, Vol. 6, World Scientific, 87-120.
14. Frederiksen, J. S., and C. S. Frederiksen, 1993: Southern Hemisphere storm tracks, blocking, and low-frequency anomalies in a primitive equation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3148-3163, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050,3148:SHSTBA.2.0.CO;2.
15. Gillett, N. P., and D. W. J. Thompson, 2003: Simulation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science, 302, 273-275, doi:10.1126/science.1087440.
16. Grainger, S., C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng, 2008: A method for evaluating the modes of variability in general circulation models. ANZIAM J., 50, C399-C412. [Available online at http://journal.austms.org.au/ojs/index.php/ANZIAMJ/article/ view/1431.]
17. Grainger, S., C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng, 2011a: Estimating components of covariance between two climate variables using model ensembles. ANZIAM J., 52, C318-C332. [Available online at http://journal.austms.org.au/ojs/index.php/ANZIAMJ/ article/view/3928.]
18. Grainger, S., C. S. and Coauthors, 2011b: Modes of variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation estimated by AGCMs. Climate Dyn., 36, 473-490, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0720-7.
19. Grainger, S., C. S., C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng, 2013: Modes of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models: Assessment and projections. Climate Dyn., 41, 479-500, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1659-7.
20. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077,0437:TNYRP.2.0.CO;2.
21. Kidson, J. W., 1999: Principal modes of Southern Hemisphere lowfrequency variability obtained from NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. J. Climate, 12, 2808-2830, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012,2808: PMOSHL.2.0.CO;2.
22. Kiladis, G. N., and K. C. Mo, 1998: Interannual and intraseasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, Meteor. Monogr., Vol. 49, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 307-336.
23. Kirtman, B., E. Schneider, D. Straus, D. Min, and R. Burgman, 2011: How weather impacts the forced climate response. Climate Dyn., 37, 2389-2416, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1084-3.
24. Knutti, R., R. Furrer, C. Tebaldi, J. Cermak, and G. A. Meehl, 2010: Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. J. Climate, 23, 2739-2758, doi:10.1175/ 2009JCLI3361.1.
25. Knutti, R., D. Masson, and A. Gettelman, 2013: Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1194-1199, doi:10.1002/grl.50256.
26. L'Heureux, M. L., and D. W. J. Thompson, 2006: Observed relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation. J. Climate, 19, 276-287, doi:10.1175/JCLI3617.1.
27. McSweeney, C. F., R. G. Jones, and B. B. B. Booth, 2012: Selecting ensemble members to provide regional climate change information. J. Climate, 25, 7100-7121, doi:10.1175/ JCLI-D-11-00526.1.
28. Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth,M. Latif, B.McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2007a: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383-1394, doi:10.1175/ BAMS-88-9-1383.
29. Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2007b: Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 747-843.
30. Mo, K. C., 2000: Relationships between low-frequency variability in the Southern Hemisphere and sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 13, 3599-3610, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2000)013,3599:RBLFVI.2.0.CO;2.
31. Mo, K. C., and R. W. Higgins, 1998: The Pacific-South American modes and tropical convection during the Southern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1581-1596, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0493(1998)126,1581:TPSAMA.2.0.CO;2.
32. Monahan, A. H., J. C. Fyfe, M. H. P. Ambaum, D. B. Stephenson, and G. R. North, 2009: Empirical orthogonal functions: The medium is the message. J. Climate, 22, 6501-6514, doi:10.1175/ 2009JCLI3062.1.
33. North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 699-706, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0493(1982)110,0699:SEITEO.2.0.CO;2.
34. Pennell, C., and T. Reichler, 2011: On the effective number of climate models. J. Climate, 24, 2358-2367, doi:10.1175/ 2010JCLI3814.1.
35. Picaut, J., M. Ioualalen, C. Menkes, T. Delcroix, and M. J. McPhaden, 1996: Mechanism of the zonal displacements of the Pacific warm pool: Implications for ENSO. Science, 274, 1486-1489, doi:10.1126/science.274.5292.1486.
36. Pierce, D. W., T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, and P. J. Gleckler, 2009: Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 8441-8446, doi:10.1073/pnas.0900094106.
37. Pitman, A. J., and S. E. Perkins, 2008: Regional projections of future seasonal and annual changes in rainfall and temperature over Australia based on skill-selected AR4 models. Earth Interact., 12, 1-50, doi:10.1175/2008EI260.1.
38. Purich, A., T. Cowan, S.-K. Min, and W. Cai, 2013: Autumn precipitation trends over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes as simulated by CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26, 8341-8356, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00007.1.
39. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
40. Renwick, J. A., 2005: Persistent positive anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 977-988, doi:10.1175/MWR2900.1.
41. Rowell, D. P., C. K. Folland, K. Maskell, and M. N. Ward, 1995: Variability of summer rainfall over tropical North Africa (1906-92): Observations and modelling. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 669-704.
42. Selten, F. M., G. W. Branstator, H. A. Dijkstra, and M. Kliphuis, 2004: Tropical origins for recent and future Northern Hemisphere climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21205, doi:10.1029/2004GL020739.
43. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
44. Tukey, J. W., 1977: Exploratory Data Analysis. Addison-Wesley, 688 pp. Uppala, S.M., and Coauthors, 2005: TheERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012, doi:10.1256/qj.04.176.
45. Weigel, A. P., R. Knutti, M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2010: Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections. J. Climate, 23, 4175-4191, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3594.1.
46. Yokohata, T., and Coauthors, 2013: Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles. Climate Dyn., 41, 2745-2763, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1733-9.
47. Zheng, X., and C. S. Frederiksen, 1999: Validating interannual variability in an ensemble of AGCM simulations. J. Climate, 12, 2386-2396, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012,2386: VIVIAE.2.0.CO;2.
48. Zheng, X., and C. S. Frederiksen, 2004: Variability of seasonal-mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability: Part 1, methodology. Climate Dyn., 23, 177-191, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0428-7.
49. Zheng, X., H. Nakamura, and J. A. Renwick, 2000: Potential predictability of seasonal means based on monthly time series of meteorological variables. J. Climate, 13, 2591-2604, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,2591:PPOSMB.2.0.CO;2.
50. Zheng, X., M. Sugi, and C. S. Frederiksen, 2004: Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of climate simulations with the MRI-JMA AGCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 1-18, doi:10.2151/jmsj.82.1.
51. Zheng, X., D. M. Straus, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. Grainger, 2009: Potentially predictable patterns of extratropical tropospheric circulation in an ensemble of climate simulations with the COLA AGCM. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1816-1829, doi:10.1002/qj.492.