Simulation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change

Science

Volumn 302, Issue 5643, 2003, Pages 273-275

  Gillett, Nathan P ^a   Thompson, David W J ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA   (Canada)

^b Engineering Research Center and Hydraulics Laboratory   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; GAS EMISSIONS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OZONE; UPPER ATMOSPHERE;

VERTICAL RESOLUTION;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCE; CIRCUMPOLAR CURRENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; EMISSION; OZONE; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; STRATOSPHERE;

ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATE CHANGE; GEOGRAPHY; GREENHOUSE GAS; LATITUDE; MODEL; OZONE LAYER; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SIMULATION; STRATOSPHERE; WIND;

EID: 0141889932     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1087440     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. J. W. Hurrell, H. van Loon, Tellus 46A, 325 (1994).
2. D. W. Waugh, W. J. Randel, S. Pawson, P. A. Newman, E. R. Nash, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 27191 (1999).
3. S. T. Zhou, M. E. Gelman, A. J. Miller, J. P. McCormack, Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 1123 (2000).
4. D. W. J. Thompson, S. Solomon, Science 296, 895 (2002).
5. W. J. Randel, F. Wu, J. Clim. 12, 1467 (1999).
6. The structure of the SAM is discussed in, for example, (23), (24), (37), and (38).
7. D. W. J. Thompson, M. P. Baldwin, S. Solomon, in preparation.
8. A similar lag has also been observed between the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations in the Northern Hemisphere (33, 34).
9. D. G. Vaughan, G. J. Marshall, W. M. Connolley, J. C. King, R. Mulvaney, Science 293, 1777 (2001).
10. D. M. H. Sexton, Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 3697 (2001).
11. I. T. Kindem, B. Christiansen, Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 1547 (2001).
12. N. P. Gillett, M. R. Allen, K. D. Williams, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129, 947 (2003).
13. The prescribed ozone losses used in (12) are as much as two times as large as the observed estimates presented in (16) during certain seasons.
14. As noted in (12), the response of HadSM3 to stratospheric ozone depletion is sensitive to the vertical resolution below 10 hPa. Hence, the 19-level version of the model used in (10) yields a weaker response than that used in this study.
15. D. M. Li, K. P. Shine, "A 4-dimensional ozone climatology for UGAMP models," Internal Rep. 35, UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (1995).
16. , W. J. Randel, F. Wu, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 3089 (1999).
17. Both the control and the perturbed simulations were integrated for 30 years. Equilibrium was reached after 11 years in the control simulation and after 5 years in the perturbed simulation.
18. V. Ramaswamy et al., Rev. Geophys. 39, 71 (2001).
19. K. P. Shine, Geophys. Res. Lett. 13, 1331 (1986).
20. J. T. Kiehl, B. A. Boville, J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 1798 (1988).
21. J. D. Mahlman, J. P. Pinto, L. J. Umscheid, J. Atmos. Sci. 51, 489 (1994).
22. The observed trends presented in Fig. 3 are based on the months December to May, because they are reproduced from TS. The simulated results presented in Fig. 3 are based on the months December to February, because the model does not reproduce the observed trends during April and May. In practice, the observed trends for the limited season December to February are similar to those presented in Fig. 3.
23. D. L. Hartmann, F. Lo, J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 1303 (1998).
24. D. W. J. Thompson, J. M. Wallace, J. Clim. 13, 1000 (2000).
25. D. J. Lorenz, D. L. Hartmann, J. Atmos. Sci. 58, 3312 (2001).
26. V. Limpasuvan, D. L. Hartmann, J. Clim. 13, 4414 (2000).
27. M. P. Baldwin, D. W. J. Thompson, E. F. Shuckburgh, W. A. Norton, N. P. Gillett, Science 301, 317 (2003).
28. The 0.46-K simulated surface cooling averaged over Antarctica is significant at the 95% level based on the t statistic.
29. M. Lal, A. K. Jain, M. C. Sinha, Tellus 39B, 326 (1987).
30. J. C. Fyfe, G. J. Boer, G. M. Flato, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 1601 (1999).
31. P. J. Kushner, I. M. Held, T. L. Delworth, J. Clim. 14, 2238 (2001).
32. M. P. Hoerling, J. W. Hurrell, T. Y. Xu, Science 292, 90 (2001).
33. M. P. Baldwin, T. J. Dunkerton, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 30937 (1999).
34. M. P. Baldwin, T. J. Dunkerton, Science 294, 581 (2001).
35. B. A. Boville, J. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1132 (1984).
36. L. M. Polvani, P. J. Kushner, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 10.1029/2001GL014284 (2002).
37. J. W. Kidson, J. Clim. 1, 1177 (1988).
38. D. J. Karoly, Tellus 42A, 41 (1990).
39. The significance of the differences in means between experiments was assessed at the 95% level using a two-sample t test.
40. E. Kalnay et al., Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437 (1996).
41. We thank S. Solomon and J. Arblaster for discussion of the results; D. Karoly and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments; L. Donner, W. Randel, and P. Kushner for helpful suggestions and comments on an earlier version of the manuscript; and A. Iwi, J. Kettleborough, and M. Palmer for help running the model. The model integrations were funded under the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere Ozone program of the UK Natural Environment Research Council, ref. NERC/T/S/2000/00114. N.P.G. is supported in Victoria by Canadian Climate Variability Research Network funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences. D.W.J.T. is supported by the NSF under grants CAREER:ATM-0132190 and ATM-0320959.