Predictability and prediction skill of the MJO in two operational forecasting systems

Journal of Climate

Volumn 27, Issue 14, 2014, Pages 5364-5378

  Kim, Hye Mi ^a   Webster, Peter J ^b   Toma, Violeta E ^b   Kim, Daehyun ^c  

^a STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate models; Climate prediction; Hindcasts; Madden Julian oscillation; Model comparison; Model errors

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; HINDCASTS; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; MODEL COMPARISON; MODEL ERRORS;

FORECASTING;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR ANALYSIS; HINDCASTING; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84904479641     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Agudelo, P. A., C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2009: Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability. ClimateDyn., 32, 855-872, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0447-x.
2. Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
3. Fu, X., B. Wang, J.-Y. Lee, W. Wang, and L. Gao, 2011: Sensitivity of dynamical intraseasonal prediction skills to different initial conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2572-2592, doi:10.1175/2011MWR3584.1.
4. Fu, X., B. J.-Y. Lee, P.-C. Hsu, H. Taniguchi, B. Wang, W. Wang, and S. Weaver, 2013: Multi-model MJO forecasting during DYNAMO/CINDY period. Climate Dyn., 41, 1067-1081, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1859-9.
5. Gottschalck, J., and Coauthors, 2010: A framework for assessing operational Madden-Julian oscillation forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1247-1258, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1.
6. Han, W., D. Lawrence, and P. J. Webster, 2001: Dynamical response of equatorial Indian Ocean to intraseasonal winds: Zonal flow. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4215-4218, doi:10.1029/2001GL013701.
7. Hirata, F. E., P. J. Webster, and V. E. Toma, 2013: Distinct manifestations of austral summer tropical intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3337-3341, doi:10.1002/grl.50632.
8. Hudson, D., A. G. Marshall, Y. Yin, O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2013: Improving intraseasonal prediction with a new ensemble generation strategy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 4429-4449, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00059.1.
9. Kang, I.-S., and H.-M. Kim, 2010:Assessment of MJOpredictability for boreal winter with various statistical and dynamicalmodels. J. Climate, 23, 2368-2378, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3288.1.
10. Kim, D., J. S. Kug, and A. H. Sobel, 2014: Propagating versus nonpropagating Madden-Julian oscillation events. J. Climate, 27, 111-125, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00084.1.
11. Kim, H.-M., and I.-S. Kang, 2008: The impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling on the predictability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. Climate Dyn., 31, 859-870, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0409-3.
12. Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2012a: Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere winter. Climate Dyn., 39, 2957-2973, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6.
13. Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, J. A. Curry, and V. Toma, 2012b: Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF system 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts. Climate Dyn., 39, 2975-2991, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1470-5.
14. Lau, W. K. M., and D. E. Waliser, Eds., 2011: Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. 2nd ed. Springer, 613 pp.
15. Lawrence, D., and P. J. Webster, 2002: The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation and the South Asian monsoon. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1593-1606, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059,1593: TBSIOR.2.0.CO;2.
16. Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275-1277.
17. Lin, H., G. Brunet, and J. Derome, 2008: Forecast skill of the Madden-Julian oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4130-4149, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2459.1.
18. Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702-708, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028,0702: DOADOI.2.0.CO;2.
19. Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1972: Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1109-1123, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029,1109: DOGSCC.2.0.CO;2.
20. Maharaj, E. A., and M. C. Wheeler, 2005: Forecasting an index of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1611-1618, doi:10.1002/joc.1206.
21. Matsueda, M., and H. Endo, 2011: Verification of medium-range MJO forecasts with TIGGE. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11801, doi:10.1029/2011GL047480.
22. Matthews, A. J., 2008: Primary and successive events in theMadden- Julian oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 439-453, doi:10.1002/qj.224.
23. Rashid, H. A., H. H. Hendon, M. C. Wheeler, and O. Alves, 2011: Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with thePOAMA dynamical prediction system. Climate Dyn., 36, 649-661, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x.
24. Reichler, T., and J. O. Roads, 2005: Long-range predictability in the tropics. Part II: 30-60-day variability. J. Climate, 18, 634-650, doi:10.1175/JCLI-3295.1.
25. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015-1057, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.
26. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J. Climate, 27, 2185-2208, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1.
27. Seo, K.-H., and W. Wang, 2010: The Madden-Julian oscillation simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System model: The importance of stratiform heating. J. Climate, 23, 4770-4793, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI2983.1.
28. Seo, K.-H., W. Wang, J. Gottschalck, Q. Zhang, J.-K. Schemm, W. Higgins, and A. Kumar, 2009: Evaluation of MJO forecast skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models. J. Climate, 22, 2372-2388, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2421.1.
29. Ventrice, M. J., M. C. Wheeler, H. H. Hendon, C. J. Schreck III, C. D. Thorncroft, and G. N. Kiladis, 2013: A modified multivariate Madden-Julian oscillation index using velocity potential. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 4197-4120, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00327.1.
30. Vitart, F., 2014: Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2256, inpress.
31. Vitart, F., and F. Molteni, 2010: Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 842-855, doi:10.1002/qj.623.
32. Vitart, F., S. Woolnough, M. A. Balmaseda, and A. Tompkins, 2007: Monthly forecast of the Madden-Julian oscillation using a coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2700-2715, doi:10.1175/MWR3415.1.
33. Vitart, F., A. Leroy, and M. C. Wheeler, 2010: A comparison of dynamical and statistical predictions of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3671-3682, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3343.1.
34. Waliser, D. E., K. M. Lau, W. Stern, and C. Jones, 2003: Potential predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 33-50, doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-1-33.
35. Wang, W., M.-P. Hung, S. J. Weaver, A. Kumar, and X. Fu, 2014: MJO prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Climate Dyn., 42, 2509-2520, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1806-9.
36. Weaver, S. J., W. Wang, M. Chen, and A. Kumar, 2011: Representation of the MJO variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 24, 4676-4694, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4188.1.
37. Weisheimer, A., T. N. Palmer, and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2011: Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16703, doi:10.1029/2011GL048123.
38. Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132,1917:AARMMI.2.0.CO;2.
39. Zhang, C., 2005: Madden-Julian oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 43, RG2003, doi:10.1029/2004RG000158.
40. Zhang, C., J. Gottschalck, E. D. Maloney, M. Moncrieff, F. Vitart, D. E. Waliser, B. Wang, and M. C. Wheeler, 2013: Cracking the MJO nut. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1223-1230, doi:10.1002/grl.50244.
41. Zhang, Q., and H. van den Dool, 2012: Relative merit of model improvement versus availability of retrospective forecasts: The case of Climate Forecast System MJO prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1045-1051, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00133.1.