Relative merit of model improvement versus availability of retrospective forecasts: The case of climate forecast system MJO prediction

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 27, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 1045-1051

  Zhang, Qin ^a   van Den Dool, Huug ^a  

^a CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate models; Forecast verification skill; Hindcasts; Numerical weather prediction forecasting

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE FORECASTS; DATA SETS; FORECAST VERIFICATIONS; HINDCASTS; IMPROVED FORECAST; INITIAL CONDITIONS; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; PREDICTION SYSTEMS;

CLIMATE MODELS; ERROR CORRECTION;

FORECASTING;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; CLIMATE MODELING; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR CORRECTION; HINDCASTING; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; MODEL TEST; MODEL VALIDATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECISION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84867664458     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00133.1     Document Type: Article

References (16)

1. Fu, X., B.Wang, T. Li, and J. P. McCreary, 2003: Coupling between northward-propagating, intraseasonal oscillations and sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1733-1753.
2. Fu, X., B.Wang, J.-Y. Lee, W. Wang, and L. Gao, 2011: Sensitivity of dynamical intraseasonal prediction skills to different initial conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2572-2592.
3. Gottschalck, J., and Coauthors, 2010: A framework for assessing operational Madden-Julian oscillation forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1247-1258.
4. Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and S. L. Mullen, 2006: Reforecasts: An important dataset for improving weather predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 33-46.
5. Johansson, Å ., C. Thiaw, and S. Saha, cited 2011: CFS retrospective forecast daily climatology. [Available online at http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfs.daily.climatology.doc.]
6. Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S.-K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631-1643.
7. Lin, H., G. Brunet, and J. Derome, 2008: Forecast skill of the Madden-Julian oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4130-4149.
8. Rashid, H. A., H. H. Hendon, M. C. Wheeler, and O. Alves, 2010: Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. Climate Dyn., 36, 649-661, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x.
9. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
10. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015-1057.
11. Schemm, J.-K. E., H. M. van den Dool, J. Huang, and S. Saha, 1997: Construction of daily climatology based on the 17-year NCEP- NCAR reanalysis. Proceedings of the First WCRP InternationalConference onReanalyses, WMO/TD-876, WCRP-104, 290-293.
12. Van den Dool, H. M., and S. Saha, 1990: Frequency dependence in forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 128-137.
13. Van den Dool, H. M., and Z. Toth, 1991: Why do forecasts for "near normal"often fail? Wea. Forecasting, 6, 76-85.
14. Van den Dool, H. M., and S. Saha, 2002: Analysis of propagating modes in the tropics in short AMIP runs. WCRP/WGNE AMIPII Workshop, Toulouse, France, WMO, 87-90. [Available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/mjo/ AMIPIIdoolsaha.pdf.]
15. Vintzileos, A., and H.-L. Pan, 2008: On the importance of horizontal resolution and initial conditions to forecasting tropical intraseasonal oscillations: The maritime continent prediction barrier. Proc. CTB-COLAJoint Seminar Series, Camp Springs, MD, NOAA/NWS/Office of Science and Technology. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/CTBCOLA/ ctb-cola_seminar_summaries.pdf.]
16. Wheeler, M., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932.