Cracking the MJO nut

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 40, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 1223-1230

  Zhang, Chidong ^a   Gottschalck, Jon ^b   Maloney, Eric D ^c   Moncrieff, Mitchell W ^d   Vitart, Frederic ^e   Waliser, Duane E ^f   Wang, Bin ^g   Wheeler, Matthew C ^h  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI   (United States)

^b CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

^c Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences   (United States)

^d NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^e EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^f CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^g UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^h Bureau of Meteorology Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research   (Australia)

Author keywords

diagnostics; field campaign; Madden Julian Oscillation; prediction

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY;

COORDINATED ACTIVITY; DIAGNOSTIC; FIELD CAMPAIGN; INTERNATIONAL STUDIES; KEYPOINTS; LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; SIMULATION PREDICTION; SOCIETAL BENEFITS; TROPICAL CONVECTION;

FORECASTING;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; FIELD METHOD; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT;

EID: 84876928369     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50244     Document Type: Article

References (75)

1. Benedict, J., and, D. A. Randall, (2009), Structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Superparameterized CAM, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3277-3296.
2. Boyle, J., S. Klein, G. Zhang, S. Xie, and, X. Wei, (2006), Climate model forecast experiments for TOGA-COARE, Monthly Weather Review, 136, 808-832.
3. CLIVAR Madden Julian Oscillation Working Group (2009), MJO Simulation Diagnostics, J. Climate, 22, 3006-3030.
4. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. Déqué, and, J.-P. Piedelievre, (2000), Multi-model spread and probabilistic forecasts in PROVOST, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126, 2069-2087.
5. Fu, X.H., and, B. Wang, (2009), Critical Roles of the Stratiform Rainfall in Sustaining the Madden-Julian Oscillation: GCM Experiments, J. Climate, 22, 3939-3959.
6. Fu, X., B. Bang, J. Y. Lee, W. Q. Wang, and, L. Gao, (2011), Sensitivity of dynamical intraseasonal prediction skills to different initial conditions, Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2572-2592.
7. Gottschalck, J., M. Wheeler, K. Weickmann, D. Waliser, K. Sperber, F. Vitart, N. Savage, H. Lin, H. Hendon, and, M. Faltau, (2008), Madden-Julian Oscillation Forecasting at Operational Modelling Centres, CLIVAR Exchanges, 13, October 2008.
8. Gottschalck, J., et al. (2010), A framework for assessing operational Madden-Julian Oscillation forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group project, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1247-1258.
9. Grabowski, W. W., (2001), Coupling cloud processes with the large-scale dynamics using the Cloud-resolving Convection parameterization (CRCP), J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 978-997.
10. Hannah, W. M., and, E. D. Maloney, (2011), The role of moisture-convection feedbacks in simulating the Madden-Julian oscillation, J. Climate, 24, 2754-2770.
11. Holloway, C. E., S. J. Woolnough, and, G. M. S. Lister, (2013), The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation, J. Atmos. Sci., e-View, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12- 0227.1.
12. Houze, R. A., (2004), Mesoscale convective systems, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG4003, doi: 10.1029/2004RG000150.
13. Hung, M.-P., J.-L. Lin, W. Wang, D. Kim, T. Shinoda, and, S. J. Weaver, (2012), MJO and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves Simulated by CMIP5 Climate Models. J. Climate, accepted pending revision.
14. Jiang, X., D. E. Waliser, W. S. Olson, W.-K. Tao, T. S. L'Ecuyer, S. Shige, K.-F. Li, Y. L. Yung, S. Lang, and, Y. N. Takayabu, (2011), Vertical diabatic heating structure of the MJO: Intercomparison between recent reanalyses and TRMM estimates, Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3208-3223.
15. Jiang, X., et al. (2009), Vertical heating structures associated with the MJO as characterized by TRMM estimates, ECMWF Reanalyses and forecasts: A case study during 1998-99 winter, J. Climate, 22, 6001-6020.
16. Katsumata, M., R.H. Johnson, and, P.E. Ciesielski, (2009), Observed Synoptic-Scale Variability during the Developing Phase of an ISO over the Indian Ocean during MISMO, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3434-3448.
17. Khairoutdinov, M. F., D. A. Randall, and, C. DeMotte, (2005) Simulations of the atmospheric general circulation using a cloud-resolving model as a super- parameterization of physical processes, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2136-2154.
18. Kiladis, G. N., K. H. Straub, and, P. T. Haertel, (2005), Zonal and vertical structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2790-2809.
19. Kim, D., et al. (2009), Application of MJO Simulation Diagnostics to Climate Models, J. Climate, 22, 6413-6436.
20. Kim, D., P. Xavier, D. Waliser, K. Sperber, E. Maloney, H. Hendon, C. Zhang, R. Neale, and, D. Raymond, A process-oriented MJO diagnostic: precipitation-humidity relationship. Abstracts, First Pan-GASS Conference, September 10-14, 2012, Boulder, CO.
21. Khouider, B., A. J. Majda, and, S. N. Stechmann, (2013), Climate science in the tropics: waves, vortices and PDEs. Nonlinearity, 26, R1-R68.
22. Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, T. E. LaRow, D. R. Bachiochi, Z. Zhang, et al. (1999), Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model superensemble, Science, 285, 1548-1550.
23. nd Ed. Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, pp 613.
24. Lee, M. I., I. S. Kang, J. K. Kim, and, B. E. Mapes, (2001), Influence of cloud-radiation interaction on simulating tropical intraseasonal oscillation with an atmospheric general circulation model. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 106, 14219-14233.
25. Lee, J.-Y., B. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, X. Fu, D. E. Waliser, and, I.-S. Kang, (2012), Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region, Clim. Dyn., Published online October 2012, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1544-4.
26. Li, C., X. Jia, J. Ling, W. Zhou, and, C. Zhang, (2009), Sensitivity of MJO simulations to convective heating profiles, Clim. Dyn., 32, 167-187.
27. Lin, H., G. Brunet, and, J. Derome, (2008), Forecast skill of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models, Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4130-4149.
28. Lin, J. L., D. Kim, M. I. Lee, and, I. S. Kang, (2007), Effects of cloud-radiative heating on atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations of convectively coupled equatorial waves, J. Geophys. Res., 112, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008291.
29. Lin, J. L., B. E. Mapes, M. Zhang, and, M. Newman, (2004), Stratiform precipitation, vertical heating profiles, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 296-309.
30. Lin, J.-L., et al. (2006), Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part I: Convective signals, J. Climate, 19, 2665-2690.
31. Ling, J., and, C. Zhang, (2011), Structural evolution in heating profiles of the MJO in global reanalyses and TRMM retrievals, J. Clim., 24, 825-842.
32. Madden, R. A., and, P. R. Julian, (1971), Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702-708.
33. Madden, R. A., and, P. R. Julian, (1972), Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period, J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1109-1123.
34. Miura, H., M. Satoh, T. Nasuno, A. T. Noda, and, K. Oouchi, (2007), A Madden-Julian Oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud-resolving model, Science, 318, 1763-1765.
35. Moncrieff, M. W., (1992), Organized convective systems: Archetypal models, mass and momentum flux theory, and parameterization, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 819-850.
36. Moncrieff, M. W., (2010), The multiscale organization of moist convection and the intersection of weather and climate, in Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary?, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 189, edited by, D.-Z. Sun, and, F. Bryan, AGU, Washington, D. C., pp. 3-26, doi: 10.1029/2008GM000838.
37. Moncrieff, M. W., and, E. Klinker, (1997), Organized convective systems in the tropical western Pacific as a process in general circulation models, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 805-828.
38. Moncrieff, M. W., M. Shapiro, J. Slingo, and, F. Molteni, (2007), Collaborative research at the intersection of weather and climate, WMO Bulletin, 56, 204-211.
39. Moncrieff, M. W., D. E. Waliser, M. J. Miller, M. E. Shapiro, G. Asrar, and, J. Caughey, (2012), Multiscale convective organization and the YOTC Virtual Global Field Campaign, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1171-1187, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00233.1.
40. Morita, J., Y. N. Takayabu, S. Shige, and, Y. Kodama, (2006), Analysis of rainfall characteristics of the Madden-Julian oscillation using TRMM satellite data, Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 42, 107-126.
41. Nakazawa, T., (1988), Tropical super clusters within intraseasonal variations over the western Pacific, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 66, 823-839.
42. NAS (2010), Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., www.nap.edu.
43. Palmer T. N., C. Brankovic, and, D. S. Richardson, (2000) A probability and decision-model analysis of PROBOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations, Q J R Meteorol Soc, 126, 2013-2034.
44. Pegion, K., and, B. P. Kirtman, (2008), The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Predictability of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation, J. Climate, 21, 5870-5886.
45. Petch, J., D. Waliser, X. Jiang, P. K. Xavier, and, S. Woolnough, (2011), A global model intercomparison of the physical processes associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation. GEWEX News, International GEWEX Project Office, Silver Spring, MD, Vol. 21 (3), 3-5. [Available online at www.ucar.edu/yotc/ mjodiab.docs.html/petch.etal.mjodiab.gewexnews.2011.pdf.]
46. Rashid, H. A., H. H. Hendon, M. C. Wheeler, and, O. Alves, (2011), Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system, Climate Dyn., 36, 649-661, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x.
47. Raymond, D. J., and, Ž. Fuchs, (2009), Moisture Modes and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Climate, 22, 3031-3046.
48. Savage, N., and, S. Milton, (2007), Evaluating 15 day ensemble forecasts of the Madden Julian Oscillation. US CLIVAR MJO workshop, Nov 2007, Irvine, CA USA.
49. Seo, K.-H., (2009), Statistical-dynamical prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation using NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc.1845.
50. Seo, K.-H., and, W. Wang, (2010), The Madden-Julian Oscillation Simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Model: The importance of Stratiform heating, J. Climate, 23, 4770-4793.
51. Seo, K-H, W. Wang, J. Gottschalck, Q. Zhang, J-K. Schemm, W. Higgins, and, A. Kumar, (2009), Evaluation of MJO forecast skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models, J. Climate, 22, 2372-2388.
52. Shukla J., et al. (2000), Dynamical seasonal prediction, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 2493-2606.
53. Slingo, J. M., et al. (1996), Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmo- spheric general circulation models: Results from an AMIP diag- nostic subproject, Clim. Dyn., 12, 325-357.
54. Sperber, K. R., and, D. Kim, (2012), Simplified metrics for the identification of the Madden-Julian oscillation in models, Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 13, 187-193. doi: 10.1002/asl.378.
55. Sperber, K. R., and, D. E. Waliser, (2008), New Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2700.1.
56. Sperber, K., J. Slingo, and, P. Inness, (2011), Modeling Intraseasonal Variability, in Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-ocean Climate System, 2nd Edition, edited by, W. K. M. Lau, and, D. E. Waliser, p. 613, Springer, Heidelberg, Germany.
57. Takayabu, Y. N., (1994), Large-scale cloud disturbances associated with equatorial waves. Part II: Westward-propagating inertio-gravity waves, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 72, 451-465.
58. Tao, W.K., et al. (2006) Retrieval of latent heating from TRMM measurements, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1555-1572.
59. Tian, B., and, W. E. Walliser, (2011), Chemical and biological impacts. Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, 2nd Ed., W. K.-M. Lau, and, D.E. Waliser, Eds., Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 569-586
60. Vitart, F., S. Woolnough, M. A. Balmaseda, and, A. Tompkins, (2007), Monthly forecast of the Madden-Julian Oscillation using a coupled GCM, Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2700-2715.
61. Waliser, D. E., (2011), Predictability and Forecasting. Chapter 12, Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-ocean Climate System, 2nd Edition, W. K. M. Lau, and, D. E. Waliser, Eds., Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 2nd Edition, pp. 613.
62. Waliser, D. E., K. M. Lau, W. Stern, and, C. Jones, (2003), Potential Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 84, 33-50.
63. Waliser, D.E., M.W. Moncrieff, et al. (2012), The "Year" of Tropical Convection (May 2008 to April 2010): Climate variability and weather highlights, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 1189-1218, doi: 10.1175/ 2011BAMS3095.1.
64. Wang, B., (2005), " The Asian Monsoon ", Ed., B. Wang, Springer/Praxis Publishing Co., New York, pp 787.
65. nd Ed., W. K.-M. Lau, and, D. E. Waliser, Eds., Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 335-398.
66. Wang, B., et al. (2009), Advance and Prospect of Seasonal Prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retroperspective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dyn., 33, 90, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0.
67. Weaver, S., W.Q. Wang, M. Chen, and, A. Kumar, (2011), Representation of the MJO variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Climate, 24, 4676-4694.
68. Webster, P. J., et al. (1998), Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14451-14510.
69. Wheeler, M. C., and, H. H. Hendon, (2004), An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction, Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932.
70. Wheeler, M., and, G. N. Kiladis, (1999), Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves: Analysis of Clouds and Temperature in the Wavenumber-Frequency Domain, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 374-399.
71. Xie, S., H. Ma, J. Boyle, S. Klein, and, Y. Zhang, (2012), On the Correspondence between Short- and Long- Timescale Systematic Errors in CAM4/CAM5 for the Years of Tropical Convection, J. Clim., 25, 7937-7955.
72. Zhang, C., (2005), Madden-Julian Oscillation, Rev. of Geophysics, 43, RG2003, doi: 10.1029/2004RG000158, 2005
73. Zhang, C., J. Ling, S. M. Hagos, W.-K. Tao, S. Lang, Y. N. Takayabu, S. Shige, M. Katsumata, W. S. Olson, and, T. L'Ecuyer, (2010), MJO Signals in Latent Heating: Results from TRMM Retrievals, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 3488-3508.
74. Zhang G. J., M. Mu, (2005), Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the NCAR CCM3 using a revise Zhang-McFarlane convection parameterization scheme, J. Climate, 18, 4046-4064.
75. Zhang, G. J., and, X. Song, (2009), Interaction of deep and shallow convection is key to Madden-Julian Oscillation simulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, doi: 10.1029/2009GL03740.