Predicting Hotel Demand Using Destination Marketing Organization's Web Traffic Data

Journal of Travel Research

Volumn 53, Issue 4, 2014, Pages 433-447

  Yang, Yang ^a   Pan, Bing ^b   Song, Haiyan ^c  

^a TEMPLE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b School of Business   (United States)

^c HONG KONG POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

big data; hotel occupancy; online data; time series; tourism demand forecasting; website traffic

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING METHOD; ORGANIZATIONAL FRAMEWORK; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; TOURISM MARKET; TOURIST DESTINATION; TRAVEL DEMAND; WORLD WIDE WEB;

EID: 84901638068     PISSN: 00472875     EISSN: 15526763     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0047287513500391     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Agarwal Vinod B.,Yochum Gilbert R.,Tatiana Isakovski.An Analysis of Smith Travel Research Occupancy Estimates: A Case Study of Virginia Beach Hotels.Cornell Hotel & Restaurant Administration Quarterly. 2002;43 (2): 9-17.
2. Andrew W. P.,Cranage D. A.,Lee C. K.Forecasting Hotel Occupancy Rates with Time Series Models: An Empirical Analysis.Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research. 1990;14 (2): 173-82.
3. Askitas N.,Zimmermann K. F.Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting.Applied Economics Quarterly. 2009;55 (2): 107-20.
4. AsurS.HubermanB. A. (2010). "Predicting the Future with Social Media."http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.5699.
5. Bollen J.,Mao H.,Zeng X.Twitter Mood Predicts the Stock Market.Journal of Computational Science. 2011;2 (1): 1-8.
6. Box G. E. P.,Jenkins G. M.,Reinsel G. C.Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 2011). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 4th edition.Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell.Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell; 2011:.
7. Carneiro H. A.,Mylonakis E.Google Trends: A Web Based Tool for Real Time Surveillance of Disease Outbreaks.Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2009;49 (10): 1557-64.
8. Chiang W. C.,Chen J. C. H.,Xu X.An Overview of Research on Revenue Management: Current Issues and Future Research.International Journal of Revenue Management. 2007;1 (1): 97-128.
9. Choi H.,Varian H.Predicting Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits.Google Technical Report. 2009;:.
10. Choi J. G.Developing an Economic Indicator System (a Forecasting Technique) for the Hotel Industry.International Journal of Hospitality Management. 2003;22 (2): 147-59.
11. Elliott Graham,Rothenberg Thomas J.,Stock James H.Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root.Econometrica. 1996;64 (4): 813-36.
12. Fesenmaier D. R.,Xiang Z.,Pan B.,Law R.A Framework of Search Engine Use for Travel Planning.Journal of Travel Research. 2011;50 (6): 587-601.
13. Frechtling D. C.Practical Tourism Forecasting. Boston: Butterworth-Heinemann; 1996:.
14. Frechtling D. C.Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies. Boston: Butterworth-Heinemann; 2001:.
15. Ginsberg Jeremy,Mohebbi Matthew H.,Patel Rajan S.,Brammer Lynnette,Smolinski Mark S.,Brilliant Larry.Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data.Nature. 2009;457 (7232): 1012-14.
16. Goel S.,Hofman J. M.,Lahaie S.,Pennock D. M.,Watts D. J.Predicting Consumer Behavior with Web Search.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2010;107 (41): 17486-90.
17. The Difference Between Clicks, Visits, Visitors, Pageviews, and Unique Pageviews 2012. 2012;:.
18. Granger C. W. J.Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods.Econometrica. 1969;37 (3): 424-38.
19. Gretzel U.,Yuan Y.,Fesenmaier D. R.Preparing for the New Economy: Advertising and Change in Destination Marketing Organizations.Journal of Travel Research. 2000;39 (2): 146-56.
20. Gruhl D.,Guha R.,Kumar R.,Novak J.,Tomkins A.The Predictive Power of Online Chatter. Paper read at KDD '05 Proceedings of the eleventh ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery in data mining, at Chicago; 2005Illinois, USA; 2005.
21. Hasan L.,Morris A.,Probets S.Using Google Analytics to Evaluate the Usability of E-commerce Sites.Human Centered Design. 2009;5619:697-706.
22. Hubbard D. W.Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley; 2011:.
23. Lampos V.,Cristianini N.Tracking the Flu Pandemic by Monitoring the Social Web. Paper read at Cognitive Information Processing (CIP), 2010 2nd International Workshop; 2010; 2010.
24. Law R.Room Occupancy Rate Forecasting: A Neural Network Approach.International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management. 1998;10 (6): 234-39.
25. Leiner B. M.,Cerf V. G.,Clark D. D.,Kahn R. E.,Kleinrock L.,Lynch D. C.,Postel J.,Roberts L. G.,Wolff S. S.The Past and Future History of the Internet.Communications of the ACM. 1997;40 (2): 102-8.
26. Lütkepohl H.New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag; 2005:.
27. Mayer-Schönberger V.,Cukier K.Big Data: A Revolution That Transforms How We Work, Live, and Think. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; 2012:.
28. Ng S.,Perron P.Unit Root Tests in ARMA Models with Data-Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag.Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1995;90 (429): 268-81.
29. Ng S.,Perron P.Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power.Econometrica. 2003;69 (6): 1519-54.
30. Palm F. C.,Zellner A.To Combine or Not to Combine? Issues of Combining Forecasts.Journal of Forecasting. 1992;11 (8): 687-701.
31. PanB. (2010). "Charleston Lodging in 2009 by the Numbers." http://panb.people.cofc.edu/pan/Charleston_Lodging_2009_by_Numbers_BingPan.pdf.
32. Pan B.,Wu D. C.,Song H.Forecasting Hotel Room Demand Using Search Engine Data.Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Technology. 2012;3 (3): 196-210.
33. Plaza B.Google Analytics for Measuring Website Performance.Tourism Management. 2011;32 (3): 477-81.
34. Schwartz Z.,Hiemstra S.Improving the Accuracy of Hotel Reservations Forecasting: Curves Similarity Approach.Journal of Travel Research. 1997;36 (1): 3-14.
35. SmithK.PanB. (2013). "2012 Charleston Area Visitor Intercept Survey Report." Unpublished Report, Office of Tourism Analysis, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC.
36. Song H.,Li G.Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting-A Review of Recent Research.Tourism Management. 2008;29 (2): 203-20.
37. Song H.,Witt S. F.,Li G.The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand. New York: Routledge; 2008:.
38. Surowiecki J.The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations. New York: Random House; 2004:.
39. Travelers' Use of the Internet, 2009. Washington, DC: Travel Industry Association of America; 2009:.
40. Weatherford L. R.,Kimes S. E.A Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Hotel Revenue Management.International Journal of Forecasting. 2003;19 (3): 401-15.
41. Wei W. W. S.Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods. Boston: Pearson Addison-Wesley; 2006:.
42. Xiang Z.,Fesenmaier D. R.,Pan B.,Law R.Assessing the Visibility of Destination Marketing Organizations in Google: A Case Study of Convention and Visitors Bureau Websites in the United States.Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing. 2010;27 (7): 519-32.
43. Zakhary A.,Atiya A. F.,El-Shishiny H.,Gayar N. E.Forecasting Hotel Arrivals and Occupancy Using Monte Carlo Simulation.Journal of Revenue & Pricing Management. 2009;10 (4): 344-66.
44. Zhang X.,Fuehres H.,Gloor P. A.Predicting Stock Market Indicators through Twitter 'I Hope It Is Not as Bad as I Fear.' Procedia: Social and Behavioral Sciences. 2010;26:55-62.
45. Zhang Y.,Jansen B. J.,Spink A.Time Series Analysis of a Web Search Engine Transaction Log.Information Processing & Management. 2009;45 (2): 230-45.