A comparison of forecasting methods for hotel revenue management

International Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 19, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 401-415

  Weatherford, Larry R ^a   Kimes, Sheryl E ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING   (United States)

^b 335 Statler Hall   (United States)

Author keywords

Comparative methods, time series; Forecasting competitions; Forecasting practice; Holt Winters, regression; Time series, univariate: Exponential smoothing

Indexed keywords

EID: 0042385070     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00011-0     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Adams W. Vodicka M. Short-term forecasting of passenger demand and some applications in Qantas Proceedings of the 27 Annual AGIFORS Symposium 1987
2. Armstrong J.S. Collopy F. Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: empirical comparisons International Journal of Forecasting 8 1992 99-111
3. Baker T.K. Collier D.A. A comparative revenue analysis of hotel yield management heuristics Decision Sciences 30 1999 239-263
4. Ben-Akiva M. Improving airline passenger forecasts using reservation data Presentation at Fall ORSA/TIMS Conference. St. Louis 1987
5. Belobaba P.P. TWA reservations analyses: demand distribution patterns MIT Flight Transportation Lab Report. Cambridge 1985
6. Clemen R.T. Combining forecasts: a review and annotated bibliography International Journal of Forecasting 5 1989 559-584
7. Duncanson A.V. Short-term forecasting Proceedings of the 14th Annual AGIFORS Symposium 1974
8. Fildes R. Lusk E.J. The choice of a forecasting model Omega 12 1984 427-435
9. Fildes R. Ord K. Forecasting competitions - their role in improving forecasting practice and research In Clements M. Hendry D. (Eds.), A Companion to Economic Forecasting 2002 Blackwell Oxford
10. Hanks R.D. Revenue management at Marriott Proceedings of the IATA's 5th International Revenue Management Conference, Montreal, Canada 1993 246-282
11. Hopperstad, C. (1995). An Alternative Detruncation Method. Boeing Commercial Aircraft Company Internal Document.
12. Kimes S.E. Group forecasting accuracy for hotels Journal of the Operational Research Society 5011 1999 1104-1110
13. L'Heureux E. A new twist in forecasting short-term passenger pickup Proceedings of the 26th Annual AGIFORS Symposium 1986
14. Lee, A.O. (1990). Airline Reservations Forecasting: Probabilistic and Statistical Models of the Booking Process. Flight Transportation Laboratory Report R90-5. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
15. Littlewood K.Forecasting and control of passenger bookings Proceedings of the 12th Annual AGIFORS Symposium 1972
16. Maddala G.S. Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics 1983 Cambridge University Press Cambridge
17. Makridakis S. Andersen A. Carbone R. Fildes R. Hibon M. Lewandowski R. Newton J. Parzen E. Winkler R. The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: results of a forecasting competition Journal of Forecasting 1 1982 111-153
18. McCartney, S. (2000). In Airlines Find a Bag of High-Tech Tricks to Keep Income Aloft, January Wall Street Journal, p. A1.
19. Orkin E. Wishful thinking and rocket science: the essential matter of calculating unconstrained demand for revenue management Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly 39 1998 15-19
20. Sa J. Reservations forecasting in airline yield management MIT Flight Transportation Lab Report R87-1. Cambridge, MA 1987
21. Schneider H. Truncated and Censored Samples from Normal Populations 1986 Marcel DekkerNew York
22. Skwarek, D.K. (1996). Competitive Impacts of Yield Management System Components: Forecasting and Sell-Up Models. MIT Flight Transportation Lab Report R96-6.
23. Smith B. Penn C. Analysis of alternate origin-destination control strategies Proceedings of the 28th Annual AGIFORS Symposium 1988
24. Weatherford L.R. A review of optimization modeling assumptions and their impact on revenue Presentation at Spring INFORMS Conference, San Diego, CA 1997
25. Weatherford L.R.Forecasting issues in revenue management Presentation at Spring INFORMS Conference, Montreal, Canada 1998
26. Weatherford, L. R., Kimes, S. E. & Scott D. A. (2001). Forecasting for hotel revenue management: testing aggregation against disaggregation. Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly. Forthcoming
27. Weatherford, L. R. & Pölt, S. (2001). Better unconstraining of airline demand data in revenue management systems for improved forecast accuracy and greater revenues, unpublished manuscript in possession of the authors.
28. Wickham, R. R. (1995). Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation. MIT Thesis: Flight Transportation Lab.
29. Zickus, J. (1998). Forecasting for Airline Network Revenue Management: Revenue and Competitive Impacts. MIT Flight Transportation Lab Report R98-4.