메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 116, Issue 19, 2011, Pages

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; EXPERIMENTS; OCEANOGRAPHY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 80054809984     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015394     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (65)

References (49)
  • 3
    • 78650799055 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal variability: Processes, predictability and prediction
    • Euro. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K
    • Anderson, D. L. T., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Balmaseda, and A. Weisheimer (2009), Decadal variability: Processes, predictability and prediction, ECMWF Tech. Memo. 591, 47 pp., Euro. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
    • (2009) ECMWF Tech. Memo. , vol.591 , pp. 47
    • Anderson, D.L.T.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2    Balmaseda, M.3    Weisheimer, A.4
  • 4
    • 62749178972 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill
    • doi:10.1029/2008GL035561
    • Balmaseda, M., and D. L. T. Anderson (2009), Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035561.
    • (2009) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.36
    • Balmaseda, M.1    Anderson, D.L.T.2
  • 5
    • 39049089465 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis
    • DOI 10.1029/2007GL031645
    • Balmaseda, M. A., G. C. Smith, K. Haines, D. Anderson, T. N. Palmer, and A. Vidard (2007), Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23615, doi:10.1029/2007GL031645. (Pubitemid 351247012)
    • (2007) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.34 , Issue.23
    • Balmaseda, M.A.1    Smith, G.C.2    Haines, K.3    Anderson, D.4    Palmer, T.N.5    Vidard, A.6
  • 6
    • 53249109747 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ECMWF ocean analysis system: ORA-S3
    • doi:10.1175/2008MWR2433.1
    • Balmaseda, M. A., A. Vidard, and D. L. T. Anderson (2008), The ECMWF ocean analysis system: ORA-S3, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 3018-3034, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2433.1.
    • (2008) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 3018-3034
    • Balmaseda, M.A.1    Vidard, A.2    Anderson, D.L.T.3
  • 8
    • 43549100458 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature
    • DOI 10.1029/2008GL033234
    • Boer, G. J., and S. J. Lambert (2008), Multi-model decadal potential predictability of precipitation and temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05706, doi:10.1029/2008GL033234. (Pubitemid 351676026)
    • (2008) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.35 , Issue.5
    • Boer, G.J.1    Lambert, S.J.2
  • 10
    • 33646859466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
    • DOI 10.1007/s10236-005-0043-0
    • Dijkstra, H. A., L. te Raa, M. Schmeits, and J. Gerrits (2006), On the physics of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, Ocean Dyn., 56, 36-50, doi:10.1007/s10236-005-0043-0. (Pubitemid 43787086)
    • (2006) Ocean Dynamics , vol.56 , Issue.1 , pp. 36-50
    • Dijkstra, H.A.1    Te Raa, L.2    Schmeits, M.3    Gerrits, J.4
  • 11
    • 33646837175 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts
    • DOI 10.1029/2005GL025061
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., R. Hagedorn, T. N. Palmer, and J.-J. Morcrette (2006), Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07708, doi:10.1029/2005GL025061. (Pubitemid 43772909)
    • (2006) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.33 , Issue.7
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Hagedorn, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3    Morcrette, J.-J.4
  • 13
    • 80051954501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts
    • Euro. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., A. Weisheimer, T. N. Palmer, J. M. Murphy, and D. Smith (2010a), Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts, ECMWF Tech. Memo. 621, 45 pp., Euro. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
    • (2010) ECMWF Tech. Memo. , vol.621 , pp. 45
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Weisheimer, A.2    Palmer, T.N.3    Murphy, J.M.4    Smith, D.5
  • 14
    • 80054795444 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate prediction with the ECMWF coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
    • Euro. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K
    • Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. A. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer, and T. N. Palmer (2010b), Decadal climate prediction with the ECMWF coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations, ECMWF Tech. Memo. 633, 24 pp., Euro. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
    • (2010) ECMWF Tech. Memo. , vol.633 , pp. 24
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Balmaseda, M.A.2    Weisheimer, A.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 15
    • 38349090222 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future changes in internal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0297-y
    • Drijfhout, S., W. Hazeleger, F. Selten, and R. Haarsma (2008), Future changes in internal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Clim. Dyn., 30, 407-419, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0297-y.
    • (2008) Clim. Dyn. , vol.30 , pp. 407-419
    • Drijfhout, S.1    Hazeleger, W.2    Selten, F.3    Haarsma, R.4
  • 16
    • 40949106039 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present
    • doi:10.1029/2007JD008470
    • Fan, Y., and H. van den Dool (2008), A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D01103, doi:10.1029/2007JD008470.
    • (2008) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.113
    • Fan, Y.1    Dool Den H.Van2
  • 17
    • 78649286836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global surface temperature change
    • doi:10.1029/2010RG000345
    • Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo (2010), Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
    • (2010) Rev. Geophys. , vol.48
    • Hansen, J.1    Ruedy, R.2    Sato, M.3    Lo, K.4
  • 18
    • 49849104163 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
    • doi:10.1029/2008GL034059
    • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton (2008), Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett, 35, L11603, doi:10.1029/2008GL034059.
    • (2008) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.35
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 19
    • 68749096042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: Forecast skill and optimal perturbations using linear inverse modeling
    • doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1
    • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton (2009a), Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: Forecast skill and optimal perturbations using linear inverse modeling, J. Clim., 22, 3960-3978, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1.
    • (2009) J. Clim. , vol.22 , pp. 3960-3978
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 20
    • 70450173156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
    • doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
    • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton (2009b), The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1095-1107, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1.
    • (2009) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.90 , pp. 1095-1107
    • Hawkins, E.1    Sutton, R.2
  • 21
    • 81455139195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach
    • doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3 in press
    • Hawkins, E., J. Robson, R. Sutton, D. Smith, and N. Keenlyside (2011), Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-011- 1023-3, in press.
    • (2011) Clim. Dyn.
    • Hawkins, E.1    Robson, J.2    Sutton, R.3    Smith, D.4    Keenlyside, N.5
  • 23
    • 65149096767 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections
    • doi:10.1007/s10872-009-0027-7
    • Ishii, M., and M. Kimoto (2009), Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections, J. Oceanogr., 65, 287-299, doi:10.1007/s10872-009-0027-7.
    • (2009) J. Oceanogr. , vol.65 , pp. 287-299
    • Ishii, M.1    Kimoto, M.2
  • 24
    • 34447637985 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and inference for verification measures
    • DOI 10.1175/WAF989.1
    • Jolliffe, I. T. (2007), Uncertainty and inference for verification measures, Weather Forecasting, 22, 637-650, doi:10.1175/WAF989.1. (Pubitemid 47086708)
    • (2007) Weather and Forecasting , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 637-650
    • Jolliffe, I.T.1
  • 25
    • 43049138035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector
    • DOI 10.1038/nature06921, PII NATURE06921
    • Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner (2008), Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector, Nature, 453, 84-88, doi:10.1038/nature06921. (Pubitemid 351630335)
    • (2008) Nature , vol.453 , Issue.7191 , pp. 84-88
    • Keenlyside, N.S.1    Latif, M.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Kornblueh, L.4    Roeckner, E.5
  • 26
    • 58049091536 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual temperature predictions using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean
    • doi:10.1029/2008GL033576
    • Laepple, T., S. Jewson, and K. Coughlin (2008), Interannual temperature predictions using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean, Geophys. Res. Lett, 35, L10701, doi:10.1029/2008GL033576.
    • (2008) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.35
    • Laepple, T.1    Jewson, S.2    Coughlin, K.3
  • 27
    • 27344459121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A cautionary note on the use of error bars
    • DOI 10.1175/JCLI3499.1
    • Lanzante, J. R. (2005), A cautionary note on the use of error bars, J. Clim., 18, 3699-3703, doi:10.1175/JCLI3499.1. (Pubitemid 41522825)
    • (2005) Journal of Climate , vol.18 , Issue.17 , pp. 3699-3703
    • Lanzante, J.R.1
  • 29
    • 70350007926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?
    • doi:10.1029/2009GL038932
    • Lean, J. L., and D. H. Rind (2009), How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L15708, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL038932.
    • (2009) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.36
    • Lean, J.L.1    Rind, D.H.2
  • 30
    • 77953732901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Deconstructing the conveyor belt
    • doi:10.1126/science.1189250
    • Lozier, M. S. (2010), Deconstructing the conveyor belt, Science, 328, 1507-1511, doi:10.1126/science.1189250.
    • (2010) Science , vol.328 , pp. 1507-1511
    • Lozier, M.S.1
  • 32
    • 68749111016 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful?
    • doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1
    • Meehl, G. A., et al. (2009), Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful?, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 90, 1467-1485, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1.
    • (2009) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc , vol.90 , pp. 1467-1485
    • Meehl, G.A.1
  • 33
    • 76649101457 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction
    • doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107
    • Mochizuki, T., et al. (2010), Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction, Proc Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 107, 1833-1837, doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107.
    • (2010) Proc Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. , vol.107 , pp. 1833-1837
    • Mochizuki, T.1
  • 34
    • 0033945325 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pedicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate
    • doi:10.1088/0034-4885/63/2/201
    • Palmer, T. N. (2000), Pedicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate, Rep. Prog. Phys., 63, 71-116, doi:10.1088/0034-4885/63/2/201.
    • (2000) Rep. Prog. Phys. , vol.63 , pp. 71-116
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 35
    • 57149122780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble prediction: A pedagogical perspective
    • Euro. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
    • Palmer, T. N., R. Buizza, R. Hagedorn, A. Lawrence, M. Leutbecher, and L. Smith (2007), Ensemble prediction: A pedagogical perspective ECMWF Newsl. 106, pp. 10-17, Euro. Cent. for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U. K.
    • (2007) ECMWF Newsl , vol.106 , pp. 10-17
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Buizza, R.2    Hagedorn, R.3    Lawrence, A.4    Leutbecher, M.5    Smith, L.6
  • 36
    • 68749116591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic syn thesis: Effects on the North Atlantic
    • doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2535.1
    • Pohlmann, H., J. H. Jungclaus, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, and J. Marotzke (2009), Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic, J. Clim., 22, 3926-3938, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2535.1.
    • (2009) J. Clim. , vol.22 , pp. 3926-3938
    • Pohlmann, H.1    Jungclaus, J.H.2    Köhl, A.3    Stammer, D.4    Marotzke, J.5
  • 37
    • 33746053466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique
    • DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00189.x
    • Räisänen, J., and L. Ruokolainen (2006), Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique, Tellus, Ser. A, 58, 461-472, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00189.x. (Pubitemid 44070046)
    • (2006) Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , vol.58 , Issue.4 , pp. 461-472
    • Raisanen, J.1    Ruokolainen, L.2
  • 38
    • 0036648346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate
    • doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)0152.0.CO;2
    • Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang (2002), An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate, J. Clim., 15, 1609-1625, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)0152.0.CO;2.
    • (2002) J. Clim. , vol.15 , pp. 1609-1625
    • Reynolds, R.W.1    Rayner, N.A.2    Smith, T.M.3    Stokes, D.C.4    Wang, W.5
  • 39
    • 34247246341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: Sensitivity to adjustment of simulated variability and choice of baseline period
    • DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00233.x
    • Ruokolainen, L., and J. Räisänen (2007), Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: Sensitivity to adjustment of simulated variability and choice of baseline period, Tellus, Ser. A, 59, 309-320, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00233.x. (Pubitemid 46605427)
    • (2007) Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , vol.59 , Issue.3 , pp. 309-320
    • Ruokolainen, L.1    Raisanen, J.2
  • 40
    • 0037790554 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997)
    • Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2003), Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperature based on COADS data (1854-1997), J. Clim., 16, 1495-1510, doi:10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1495. (Pubitemid 36762050)
    • (2003) Journal of Climate , vol.16 , Issue.10 , pp. 1495-1510
    • Smith, T.M.1    Reynolds, R.W.2
  • 41
    • 34547903564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model
    • DOI 10.1126/science.1139540
    • Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy (2007), Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model, Science, 317, 796-799, doi:10.1126/science. 1139540. (Pubitemid 47257915)
    • (2007) Science , vol.317 , Issue.5839 , pp. 796-799
    • Smith, D.M.1    Cusack, S.2    Colman, A.W.3    Folland, C.K.4    Harris, G.R.5    Murphy, J.M.6
  • 43
    • 33750626862 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005
    • DOI 10.1029/2006GL026894
    • Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea (2006), Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026894. (Pubitemid 44687723)
    • (2006) Geophysical Research Letters , vol.33 , Issue.12
    • Trenberth, K.E.1    Shea, D.J.2
  • 46
    • 41949124639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?
    • DOI 10.1002/qj.210
    • Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller (2008), Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 241-260, doi:10.1002/qj.210. (Pubitemid 351512725)
    • (2008) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , vol.134 , Issue.630 , pp. 241-260
    • Weigel, A.P.1    Liniger, M.A.2    Appenzeller, C.3
  • 48
    • 42049086218 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changing expendable bathythermograph fall rates and their impact on estimates of thermosteric sea level rise
    • doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2290.1
    • Wijffels, S. E., J. Willis, C. M. Domingues, P. Barker, N. J. White, A. Gronell, K. Ridgway, and J. A. Church (2008), Changing expendable bathythermograph fall rates and their impact on estimates of thermosteric sea level rise, J. Clim., 21, 5657-5672, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2290.1.
    • (2008) J. Clim. , vol.21 , pp. 5657-5672
    • Wijffels, S.E.1    Willis, J.2    Domingues, C.M.3    Barker, P.4    White, N.J.5    Gronell, A.6    Ridgway, K.7    Church, J.A.8
  • 49
    • 80054796963 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of XBT temperature bias on decadal climate prediction with a coupled climate model
    • doi:10.1175/2011JCL14230.1
    • Yasunaka, S., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, T. Mochizuki, and H. Shiogama (2011), Influence of XBT temperature bias on decadal climate prediction with a coupled climate model, J. Clim., doi:10.1175/2011JCL14230.1.
    • (2011) J. Clim.
    • Yasunaka, S.1    Ishii, M.2    Kimoto, M.3    Mochizuki, T.4    Shiogama, H.5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.