Ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a mechanistic-empirical modeling approach

Journal of Marine Systems

Volumn 125, Issue , 2013, Pages 113-125

  Brown, C W ^a   Hood, R R ^b   Long, W ^b   Jacobs, J ^a   Ramers, D L ^c   Wazniak, C ^d   Wiggert, J D ^e   Wood, R ^a   Xu, J ^a  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EVANSVILLE   (United States)

^d MARYLAND DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI   (United States)

Author keywords

Algal blooms; Chesapeake Bay; Ecological forecasting; Maryland Virginia Delaware; Ocean prediction; Pathogenic bacteria; ROMS; USA

Indexed keywords

ALGAL BLOOMS; CHESAPEAKE BAY; ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING; MARYLAND; PATHOGENIC BACTERIUM; USA;

BIOGEOCHEMISTRY; DIGITAL STORAGE; ECOSYSTEMS; MODELS; ROM; WORLD WIDE WEB;

FORECASTING;

AUTOMATION; BIOGEOCHEMISTRY; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; HABITAT QUALITY; IMAGE ANALYSIS; INTERNET; REAL TIME; REGIONAL PATTERN; SPECIES DIVERSITY;

CHESAPEAKE BAY; UNITED STATES;

ALGAE; BACTERIA (MICROORGANISMS);

EID: 84883242762     PISSN: 09247963     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.12.007     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Austin M.P. Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecol. Model. 2002, 157:101-118.
2. Baird D., Ulanowicz R.E. The seasonal dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. Ecol. Monogr. 1989, 59(4):329-364.
3. Brown C.W., Green D., Hickey B.M., Jacobs J.M., Lanerolle L.W.J., Moore S., Schwab D.J., Trainer V.L., Trtanj J., Turner E., Wood R.J., Wynne T.T. Towards operational forecasts of algal blooms and pathogens. Environmental Tracking for Public Health Surveillance. International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Book Series 2013, 345-368. Taylor & Francis Group, London. S.A. Morain, A.M. Budge (Eds.).
4. Brown, C.W., Ramers, D.L., Hood, R.R., Wazniak, C., Long, W., Tango, P., in preparation. Predicting the relative abundance of the dinoflagellate Karlodinium veneficum in the Chesapeake Bay. To be submitted to Harmful Algae.
5. Colwell R.K., Kaper J., Joseph S.W. Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and other vibrios: occurrence and distribution in Chesapeake Bay. Science 1977, 198(394-396).
6. Colwell R.R., Seidler R.J., Kaper J., Joseph S.W., Garges S., Lockman H., Maneval D., Bradford H., Roberts N., Remmers E., Huq I., Huq A. Occurrence of Vibrio cholerae serotype-01 in Maryland and Louisiana estuaries. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 1981, 41(2):555-558.
7. Constantin de Magny G., Long W., Brown C.W., Hood R.R., Huq A., Murtugudde R., Colwell R.R. Predicting the distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: a Vibrio cholerae case study. Ecohealth 2009, 6(3):378-389.
8. Crist P.J. Animal-distribution modeling in gap analysis: an evolving science. Conserv. Biol. 2000, 14(5):1224-1224.
9. Daniels N.A., MacKinnon L., Bishop R., Altekruse S., Ray B., Hammond R.M., Thompson S., Wilson S., Bean N.H., Griffin P.M., Slutsker L. Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections in the United States, 1973-1998. J. Infect. Dis. 2000, 181(5):1661-1666.
10. Dechet A.M., Yu P.A., Koram N., Painter J. Nonfoodborne Vibrio infections: an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States, 1997-2006. Clin. Infect. Dis. 2008, 46(7):970.
11. Decker M.B., Brown C.W., Hood R.R., Purcell J.E., Gross T.F., Matanoski J.C., Bannon R.O., Setzler-Hamilton E.E. Predicting the distribution of the scyphomedua Chrysaora quinquecirrha in Chesapeake Bay. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 2007, 329:99-113.
12. Deeds J.R., Terlizzi D.E., Adolf J.E., Stoecker D.K., Place A.R. Toxic activity from cultures of Karlodinium micrum (Dinophyceae) - a dinoflagellate associated with fish mortalities in an estuarine aquaculture facility. Harmful Algae 2002, 1:169-189.
13. DePaola A., Kaysner C.A., Bowers J., Cook D.W. Environmental investigations of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oysters after outbreaks in Washington, Texas, and New York (1997 and 1998). Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 2000, 66(11):4649-4654.
14. DePaola A., Nordstrom J.L., Bowers J.C., Wells J.G., Cook D.W. Seasonal abundance of total and pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Alabama oysters. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 2003, 69(3):1521-1526.
15. Fennel K., Wilkin J., Levin J., Moisan J., O'Reilly J., Haidvogel D. Nitrogen cycling in the Middle Atlantic Bight: results from a three-dimensional model and implications for the North Atlantic nitrogen budget. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 2006, 20(GB3007). 10.1029/2005GB002456.
16. Fogel D. Evolutionary Computation, Principles and Practice for Signal Processing 2000, SPIE Press, Bellingham.
17. Gallegos C.L., Bergstrom P.W. Effects of a Prorocentrum minimum bloom on light availability for and potential impacts on submersed aquatic vegetation in upper Chesapeake Bay. Harmful Algae 2005, 4(3):553-574.
18. Gallegos C.L., Jordan T.E. Impact of the Spring 2000 phytoplankton bloom in Chesapeake Bay on optical properties and light penetration in the Rhode River, Maryland. Estuaries 2002, 25(4A):508-519.
19. Goshorn D., Deeds J.R., Tango P., Poukish C., Place A.R., McGinty M., Bulter W., Luckett C., Magnien R. Occurrence of Karlodinium micrum and its association with fish kills in Maryland estuaries. Xth International Conference on Harmful Algae, St. Petersburg, FL 2002.
20. Grattan L.M., Oldach D., Perl T.M., Lowitt M.H., Matuszak D.L., Dickson C., Parrot C., Shoemaker R.C., Kaufmann C.L., Wasserman M.P. Problems in learning and memory occur in persons with environmental exposure to waterways containing toxin producing Pfiesteria or Pfiesteria-like dinoflagellates. Lancet 1998, 352:532-539.
21. Gregg W.W., Ginoux P., Schopf P.S., Casey N.W. Phytoplankton and iron: validation of a global three-dimensional ocean biogeochemical model. Deep-Sea Res. II 2003, 50:3143-3169.
22. Guisan A., Thuiller W. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol. Lett. 2005, 8:993-1009.
23. Guisan A., Zimmermann N.E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Model. 2000, 135(2-3):147-186.
24. Guisan A., Lehmann A., Ferrier S., Austin M., Overton J.M.C., Aspinall R., Hastie T. Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions. J. Appl. Ecol. 2006, 43(3):386-392.
25. Haupt R.L., Haupt S.E. Practical Genetic Algorithms. Wiley-Interscience 1998, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York.
26. Hegaret H., Wikfors G.H. Time dependent changes in hemocytes of Eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, and northern bay scallops, Agropectens irradians, exposed to cultured strain of Prorocentrum minimum. Harmful Algae 2005, 4(2):187-199.
27. Heidelberg J.F., Heidelberg K.B., Colwell R.R. Seasonality of Chesapeake Bay bacterioplankton species. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 2002, 68(11):5488-5497.
28. Hoffman M.J., Haine T.W.N., Miyoshi T., Ide K., Brown C.W., Murtugudde R. An advanced data assimilation system for the Chesapeake Bay: performance evaluation. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 2012, 29(10):1542-1557.
29. Jacobs J.M., Rhodes M., Brown C.W., Hood R.R., Leight A.K., Long W., Wood R.J. Predicting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. NOAA NOS NCCOS Technical Memorandum 2010, 112:1-12.
30. Jennings M.D. Gap analysis: concepts, methods, and recent results. Landsc. Ecol. 2000, 15(1):5-20.
31. Johnson C.N., Flowers A.R., Noriea Iii N.F., Zimmerman A.M., Bowers J.C., DePaola A., Grimes D.J. Relationships between environmental factors and pathogenic vibrios in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 2010, 76(21):7076-7084.
32. Jones M.K., Oliver J.D. Vibrio vulnificus: disease and pathogenesis. Infect. Immun. 2009, 77(5):1723.
33. Julie D., Solen L., Antoine V., Jaufrey C., Annick D., Dominique H.H. Ecology of pathogenic and non-pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus on the French Atlantic coast. Effects of temperature, salinity, turbidity and chlorophyll a. Environ. Microbiol. 2010, 12(4):929-937.
34. Kaneko T., Colwell R.R. Incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Chesapeake Bay. Appl. Microbiol. 1975, 30(2):251-257.
35. Kaper J.B., Remmers E.F., Lockman H., Colwell R.R. Distribution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Chesapeake Bay during the summer season. Estuar. Coasts 1981, 4(4):321-327.
36. Kasabov N.K. Foundations of Neural Networks, Fuzzy Systems, and Knowledge Engineering 1996, The MIT Press, Cambridge.
37. Kemp W.M., Boynton W.R., Adolf J.E., Boesch D.F., Boicourt W.C., Bruch G., Cornwell J.C., Fisher T.R., Glibert P.M., Hagy J.D., Harding L.W., Houde E.D., Kimmel D.G., Miller W.D., Newell R.I.E., Roman M.R., Smith E.M., Stevenson J.C. Eutrophication of Chesapeake Bay: historical trends and ecological interactions. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 2005, 303:1-29.
38. Landis J.R., Koch G.G. The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics 1977, 45:255-268.
39. Le Quéré C., Harrison S.P., Prentice C., Buitenhuis E.T., Aumonts O., Bopp L., Claustre H., Da Cunha L.C., Geider R.J., Giraud X., Klaas C., Kohfeld K.E., Legendre L., Manizza M., Platt T., Rivkin R.B., Sathyendranath S., Uitz J., Watson A.J., Wolf-Gladrow D. Ecosystem dynamics based on plankton functional types for global ocean biogeochemistry models. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2005, 11:2016-2040.
40. Louis V., Russek-Cohen E., Choopun N., Rivera I., Gangle B., Jiang S., Rubin A., Patz J., Huq A., Colwell R. Predictability of Vibrio cholerae in Chesapeake Bay. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 2003, 69(5):2773-2785.
41. Marshall H.G., Burchardt L. Phytoplankton development within tidal freshwater regions of two Virginia rivers, USA. Va. J. Sci. 2005, 56(2):67-81.
42. Marshall H.G., Egerton T. Phytoplankton blooms: their occurrence and composition within Virginia's tidal estuaries. Va. J. Sci. 2009, 60(3):149-164.
43. Marshall H.G., Burchardt L., Lacouture R. A review of phytoplankton composition within Chesapeake Bay and its tidal estuaries. J. Plankton Res. 2005, 27(11):1083-1102.
44. McLaughlin J.B., DePaola A., Bopp C.A., Martinek K.A., Napolilli N.P., Allison C.G., Murray S.L., Thompson E.C., Bird M.M., Middaugh J.P. Outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus gastroenteritis associated with Alaskan oysters. N. Engl. J. Med. 2005, 353(14):1463-1470.
45. Meyers T., Sickles J., Dennis R., Russell K., Galloway J., Church T. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition to coastal estuaries and their watersheds. Nitrogen Loading in Coastal Water Bodies: An Atmospheric Perspective 2001, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC. R.A. Valigura (Ed.).
46. Moore J.K., Doney S.C., Lindsay K. Upper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 2004, 18(4):GB4028. 10.1029/2004GB0022220.
47. Parveen S., Hettiarachchi K.A., Bowers J.C., Jones J.L., Tamplin M.L., McKay R., Beatty W., Brohawn K., DaSilva L.V., DePaola A. Seasonal distribution of total and pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Chesapeake Bay oysters and waters. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 2008, 128(2):354-361.
48. Phillips A.M.B., DePaola A., Bowers J., Ladner S., Grimes D.J. An evaluation of the use of remotely sensed parameters for prediction of incidence and risk associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Gulf Coast oysters (Crassostrea virginica). J. Food Prot. 2007, 174(70(4)):879-884.
49. Purcell J.E. Effects of predation by the scyphomedusan Chrysaora quinquecirrha on zooplankton populations in Chesapeake Bay. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 1992, 87:65-76.
50. Purcell J.E., Arai M.N. Interactions of pelagic cnidarians and ctenophores with fish: a review. Hydrobiologia 2001, 451:27-44.
51. Purcell J.E., Decker M.B. Effects of climate on relative predation by scyphomedusae and ctenophores on copepods in Chesapeake Bay during 1987-2000. Limnol. Oceanogr. 2005, 50(1):376-387.
52. Purcell J.E., Nemazie D.A., Dorsey S.E., Houde E.D., Gamble J.C. Predation mortality of bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) eggs and larvae due to scyphomedusae and ctenophores in Chesapeake Bay. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 1994, 114:47-58.
53. Rippey S.R. Infectious diseases associated with molluscan shellfish consumption. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 1994, 7(4):419-425.
54. Sexton, M.A., 2012. Factors influencing appearance, disappearance, and variability of abundance of the sea nettle Chrysaora quinquecirrha in Chesapeake Bay, Dissertation, University of Maryland, Cambridge, MD, 163 pp.
55. Sexton M.A., Hood R.R., Sarkodee-Adoo J., Liss A.M. Response of Chrysaora quinquecirrha medusae to low temperature. Hydrobiologia 2010, 645(1):125-133.
56. Shchepetkin A.F., McWilliams J.C. The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Model. 2005, 9(4):347-404.
57. Strom M.S., Paranjpye R.N. Epidemiology and pathogenesis of Vibrio vulnificus. Microbes Infect. 2000, 2(2):177-188.
58. Tango P.J., Magnien R., Butler W., Luckett C., Luckenbach M., Lacouture R., Poukish C. Impacts and potential effects due to Prorocentrum minimum blooms in Chesapeake Bay. Harmful Algae 2005, 4(3):525-531.
59. Warner J.C., Geyer W.R., Lerczak J.A. Numerical modeling of an estuary: a comprehensive skill assessment. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans Atmos. 2005, 110(C05001). 10.1029/2004JC002691.
60. Watkins W.D., Cabelli V.J. Effect of fecal pollution on Vibrio parahaemolyticus densities in an estuarine environment. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 1985, 49(5):1307-1313.
61. Wiens J.A., Stralberg D., Jongsomjit D., Howell C.A., Snyder M.A. Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2009, 106:19729-19736.
62. Wiggert, J.D., Hood, R.R., Long, W., Xu, J., Lanerolle, L.W.J., Denton, E.E., Prasad, M.B.K., Brown, C.W., in preparation. Assessment of biophysical variability in a coupled physical-biogeochemical model developed to enable water quality and ecological forecasts of Chesapeake Bay. To be submitted to J. Mar. Sci.
63. Wikfors G.H. A review and new analysis of trophic interactions between Prorocentrum minimum and clams, scallops, and oysters. Harmful Algae 2005, 4(3):585-592.
64. Wilkin J.L., Arango H.G., Haidvogel D.B., Lichtenwalner C.S., Glenn S.M., Hedström K.S. A regional ocean modeling system for the Long-term Ecosystem Observatory. J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 110(C06S91). 10.1029/2003JC002218.
65. Xu J., Hood R.R. Modeling biogeochemical cycles in Chesapeake Bay with a coupled physical-biological model. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 2006, 69:19-46.
66. Xu J., Chao S.-Y., Hood R.R., Wang H.V., Boicourt W.C. Assimilating scanfish data into a model of a partially mixed estuary. J. Geophys. Res. 2002, 107. 10.1029/2000JC000626.
67. Xu J., Hood R.R., Chao S.-Y. A simple empirical optical model for simulating light attenuation variability in a partially mixed estuary. Estuaries 2005, 28:572-580.
68. Xu J., Long W., Wiggert J.D., Lanerolle L.W.J., Brown C.W., Murtugudde R., Hood R.R. Climate forcing and salinity variability in the Chesapeake Bay, USA. Estuar. Coasts 2012, 35(1):237-261.
69. Zhang W.G., Wilkin J.L., Arango H.G. Towards an integrated observation and modeling system in the New York Bight using variational methods. Part I: 4DVAR data assimilation. Ocean Model. 2010, 35(3):119-133.
70. Zimmerman A.M., DePaola A., Bowers J.C., Krantz J.A., Nordstrom J.L., Johnson C.N., Grimes D.J. Variability of total and pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus densities in northern Gulf of Mexico water and oysters. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 2007, 73(23):7589.