Climate Forcing and Salinity Variability in Chesapeake Bay, USA

Estuaries and Coasts

Volumn 35, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 237-261

  Xu, Jiangtao ^a,b   Long, Wen ^c   Wiggert, Jerry D ^d   Lanerolle, Lyon W J ^a,e   Brown, Christopher W ^f   Murtugudde, Raghu ^g   Hood, Raleigh R ^c  

^a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY CORPORATION FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI   (United States)

^e Earth Resources Technology Inc (ERT)   (United States)

^f NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^g UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

Chesapeake Bay; Climate; EOF analysis; Estuary; Model validation; Salinity variability; Skill assessment; Spatiotemporal patterns

Indexed keywords

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ANNUAL VARIATION; BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLE; BOUNDARY CONDITION; CLIMATE FORCING; COASTAL WATER; CORRELATION; DECADAL VARIATION; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; ERROR ANALYSIS; MODEL VALIDATION; RIVER FLOW; RUNOFF; SALINITY; SPATIAL VARIATION; STRATIFICATION; WATER COLUMN; WIND FORCING;

CHESAPEAKE BAY; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84855253295     PISSN: 15592723     EISSN: 15592731     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12237-011-9423-5     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. Allen, J. I., P. J. Somerfield, and F. J. Gilbert. 2007. Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models. Journal of Marine Systems 64: 3-14.
2. Anderson, C. R., et al. 2010. Predicting potentially toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the Chesapeake Bay. Journal of Marine Systems 83: 127-140.
3. Austin, J. A. 2002. Estimating the mean ocean-bay exchange rate of the Chesapeake Bay. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 107: 3192.
4. Austin, J. A. 2004. Estimating effective longitudinal dispersion in the Chesapeake Bay. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 60: 359-368.
5. Calvo, G. W., M. W. Luckenbach, S. K. Allen Jr., and E. M. Burreson. 2001. A comparative field study of Crassostrea ariakensis (Fujita 1913) and Crassostrea virginica (Gmelin 1791) in relation to salinity in Virginia. Journal of Shellfish Research 20: 221-229.
6. Chapman, D. C. 1985. Numerical treatment of cross-shelf open boundaries in a barotropic coastal ocean model. Journal of Physical Oceanography 15: 1060-1075.
7. Constantin De Magny, G., et al. 2010. Predicting the distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: A Vibrio cholerae case study. EcoHealth 6: 378-389.
8. Dekshenieks, M. M., E. E. Hofmann, and E. N. Powell. 1993. Environmental effects on the growth and development of easter oyster, Crassostrea virginica (Gmelin, 1791) larvae: A modeling study. Journal of Shellfish Research 12: 241-254.
9. Dong, B. W., R. T. Sutton, S. P. Jewson, A. O'neill, and J. M. Slingo. 2000. Predictable winter climate in the North Atlantic sector during the 1997-1999 ENSO cycle. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 985-988.
10. Elliott, A. J., D. P. Wang, and D. W. Pritchard. 1978. The circulation near the head of Chesapeake Bay. Journal of Marine Research 36: 643-655.
11. Flather, R. A. 1976. A tidal model of the northwest European continental shelf. Mémoires Société Royale des Sciences de Liège 6: 141-164.
12. Foreman, M. G. G. 1977. Manual for tidal heights analysis and prediction, 97. Patricia Bay, Victoria: Institute of Ocean Science.
13. Fulford, R. S., D. L. Breitburg, R. I. E. Newell, W. M. Kemp, and M. Luckenbach. 2007. Effects of oyster population restoration strategies on phytoplankton biomass in Chesapeake Bay: A flexible modeling approach. Marine Ecology Progress Series 336: 43-61.
14. Gibson, J. R., and R. G. Najjar. 2000. The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate-induced changes in streamflow. Limnology and Oceanography 45: 1764-1772.
15. Goodrich, D. M., and A. F. Blumberg. 1991. The fortnightly mean circulation of Chesapeake Bay. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 32: 451-462.
16. Grötzner, A., M. Latif, and D. Dommenget. 2000. Atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies during El Niño 1997/98 as simulated by ECHAM4. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126: 2175-2198.
17. Guo, X. Y., and A. Valle-Levinson. 2007. Tidal effects on estuarine circulation and outflow plume in the Chesapeake Bay. Continental Shelf Research 27: 20-42.
18. Hagy, J. D., L. P. Sanford, and W. R. Boynton. 2000. Estimation of net physical transport and hydraulic residence times for a coastal plain estuary using box models. Estuaries 23: 328-340.
19. Haidvogel, D. B., et al. 2008. Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Journal of Computational Physics 227: 3595-3624.
20. Haidvogel, D. B., H. G. Arango, K. Hedstrom, A. Beckmann, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, and A. F. Shchepetkin. 2000. Model evaluation experiments in the North Atlantic Basin: Simulations in nonlinear terrain-following coordinates. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 32: 239-281.
21. Hansen, D. V., and M. J. Rattray. 1965. Gravitational circulation in straits and estuaries. Journal of Marine Research 23: 104-122.
22. Hicks, S. 1964. Tidal wave characteristics of Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Science 5: 103-113.
23. Hilton, T. W., R. G. Najjar, L. Zhong, and M. Li. 2008. Is there a signal of sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay salinity? Journal of Geophysical Research 113: C09002. doi: 10. 1029/2007JC004247.
24. Johnson, B. H., R. E. Heath, B. B. Hsieh, K. W. Kim, and H. L. Butler. 1991. Development and verification of a three-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic, salinity, and temperature model of Chesapeake Bay. Vicksburg: US Army Corps of Engineers, Waterways Experiment Stations. 193.
25. King, R. S., A. H. Hines, F. D. Craige, and S. Grap. 2005. Regional, watershed and local correlates of blue crab and bivalve abundances in subestuaries of Chesapeake Bay, USA. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 319: 101-116.
26. Kranenburg, C. 1986. A time scale for long-term salt intrusion in well-mixed estuaries. Journal of Physical Oceanography 16: 1329-1331.
27. Large, W. G., J. C. Mcwilliams, and S. C. Doney. 1994. Oceanic vertical mixing: A review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization. Reviews of Geophysics 32: 363-403.
28. Lee, Y. J., and K. M. M. Lwiza. 2008. Factors driving bottom salinity variability in the Chesapeake Bay. Continental Shelf Research 28: 1352-1362.
29. Lerczak, J. A., W. R. Geyer, and D. K. Ralston. 2009. The temporal response of the length of a partially stratified estuary to changes in river flow and tidal amplitude. Journal of Physical Oceanography 39: 915-933.
30. Li, M., and L. Zhong. 2009. Flood-ebb and spring-neap variations of mixing, stratification and circulation in Chesapeake Bay. Continental Shelf Research 29: 4-14.
31. Li, M., L. J. Zhong, and W. C. Boicourt. 2005. Simulations of Chesapeake Bay estuary: Sensitivity to turbulence mixing parameterizations and comparison with observations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 110: 22.
32. Maccready, P. 1999. Estuarine adjustment to changes in river flow and tidal mixing. Journal of Physical Oceanography 29: 708-726.
33. Maccready, P. 2007. Estuarine adjustment. Journal of Physical Oceanography 37: 2133-2145.
34. Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 1069-1079.
35. Mellor, G., and T. Yamada. 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. Reviews of Geophysics 20: 851-875.
36. Mukai, A. Y., J. J. Westerink, R. A. Luettich, and D. Mark. 2002. Eastcoast 2001: A tidal constituent database for the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, 201. Vicksburg: US Army Corps of Engineers.
37. Murphy, A. H. 1988. Skill scores based on the mean-square error and their relationships to the correlation-coefficient. Monthly Weather Review 116: 2417-2425.
38. Najarian, T. O., D. R. F. Harleman, and M. L. Thatcher. 1980. C & D Canal effect on salinity of Delaware estuary. Journal of the Waterway Port Coastal and Ocean Division 106: 1-17.
39. Nigam, S., M. Barlow, and E. H. Berbery. 1999. Analysis links pacific decadal variability to drought and streamflow in United States. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 80: 621.
40. Oke, P. R., et al. 2002. A modeling study of the three-dimensional continental shelf circulation off Oregon. Part I: Model-data comparisons. Journal of Physical Oceanography 32: 1360-1382.
41. Orth, R., and K. Moore. 1984. Distribution and abundance of submerged aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay: A historical perspective. Estuaries and Coasts 7: 531-540.
42. Prasad, M., W. Long, X. Zhang, R. Wood, and R. Murtugudde. 2011. Predicting dissolved oxygen in the Chesapeake Bay: Applications and implications. Aquatic Sciences-Research Across Boundaries: 1-15. doi: 10. 1007/s00027-011-0191-x.
43. Prasad, M., M. Sapiano, C. Anderson, W. Long, and R. Murtugudde. 2010. Long-term variability of nutrients and chlorophyll in the Chesapeake Bay: A retrospective analysis, 1985-2008. Estuaries and Coasts 33: 1128-1143.
44. Pritchard, D. 1960. Salt balance and exchange rate for Chincoteague Bay. Chesapeake Science 1: 48-57.
45. Pritchard, D. W. 1952. Salinity distribution and circulation in the Chesapeake Bay estuarine system. Journal of Marine Research 11: 106-123.
46. Pritchard, D. W., and G. B. Gardner. 1974. Hydrography of the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, 77. Baltimore: Chesapeake Bay Institute.
47. Ralston, D. K., W. R. Geyer, and J. A. Lerczak. 2010. Structure, variability, and salt flux in a strongly forced salt wedge estuary. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 115: C06005.
48. Sandoz, M., and R. Rogers. 1944. The effect of environmental factors on hatching, moulting, and survival of zoea larvae of the blue crab Callinectes sapidus Rathbun. Ecology 25: 216-228.
49. Schubel, J. R., and D. W. Pritchard. 1986. Responses of upper Chesapeake Bay to variations in discharge of the Susquehanna River. Estuaries 9: 236-249.
50. Scully, M., C. Friedrichs, and J. Brubaker. 2005. Control of estuarine stratification and mixing by wind-induced straining of the estuarine density field. Estuaries and Coasts 28: 321-326.
51. Seitz, R. C. 1971. Drainage area statistics for the Chesapeake Bay fresh-water drainage basin. Baltimore: The Chesapeake Bay Institute, p. 21.
52. Shchepetkin, A. F., and J. C. Mcwilliams. 2005. The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): A split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Modelling 9: 347-404.
53. Shen, J., and H. V. Wang. 2007. Determining the age of water and long-term transport timescale of the Chesapeake Bay. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 74: 585-598.
54. Song, Y. H., and D. Haidvogel. 1994. A semi-implicit ocean circulation model using a generalized topography-following coordinate system. Journal of Computational Physics 115: 228-244.
55. Stickney, A. P. 1964. Salinity, temperature, and food requirements of soft-shell clam larvae in laboratory culture. Ecology 45: 283-291.
56. Taylor, K. E. 2001. Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 7183-7192.
57. Thatcher, M., and T. Najarian. 1983. Transient hydrodynamic and salinity simulations in the Chesapeake Bay network. Estuaries and Coasts 6: 356-363.
58. Wang, D.-P. 1979a. Subtidal sea level variations in the Chesapeake Bay and relations to atmospheric forcing. Journal of Physical Oceanography 9: 413-421.
59. Wang, D.-P. 1979b. Wind-driven circulation in the Chesapeake Bay, winter, 1975. Journal of Physical Oceanography 9: 564-572.
60. Wang, D., and A. Elliott. 1978. Non-tidal variability in the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River: Evidence for non-local forcing. Journal of Physical Oceanography 8: 225-232.
61. Wang, H. V., and B. H. Johnson. 2000. Validation and application of the second generation three dimensional hydrodynamic model of Chesapeake Bay. Water Quality and Ecosystems Modeling 1: 51-90.
62. Ward, N. D., J. A. Gebert, and J. R. Weggel. 2009. Hydraulic study of the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 134: 24-30.
63. Warner, J. C., W. R. Geyer, and J. A. Lerczak. 2005a. Numerical modeling of an estuary: A comprehensive skill assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 110: 13.
64. Warner, J. C., C. R. Sherwood, H. G. Arango, and R. P. Signell. 2005b. Performance of four turbulence closure models implemented using a generic length scale method. Ocean Modelling 8: 81-113.
65. Wilmott, C. J. 1981. On the validation of models. Physical Geography 2: 184-194.
66. Wong, K. C. 1987. Subtidal volume exchange through the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 92: 10870-10874.
67. Wong, K. C. 1990. The current and sea-level variability in the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 95: 18343-18352.
68. Wong, K. C. 1991. The response of the Delaware estuary to the combined forcing from Chesapeake Bay and the ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 96: 8797-8809.
69. Wong, K. C. 2002. On the spatial structure of currents across the Chesapeake and Delaware Canal. Estuaries 25: 519-527.
70. Wong, K. C., and R. W. Garvine. 1984. Observations of wind-induced, subtidal variability in the Delaware Estuary. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 89: 589-597.
71. Xu, J. T., S. Y. Chao, R. R. Hood, H. V. Wang, and W. C. Boicourt. 2002. Assimilating high-resolution salinity data into a model of a partially mixed estuary. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 107: 15.
72. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti. 1997. ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. Journal of Climate 10: 1004-1020.
73. Zhong, L. J., and M. Li. 2006. Tidal energy fluxes and dissipation in the Chesapeake Bay. Continental Shelf Research 26: 752-770.