메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 26, Issue 12, 2013, Pages 4186-4203

Intraseasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon in four operational and research models

Author keywords

Asia; Coupled models; Forecast verification skill; Intraseasonal variability; Numerical weather prediction forecasting; Tropics

Indexed keywords

ASIA; COUPLED MODELS; FORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILL; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION/FORECASTING;

EID: 84878345916     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00252.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (52)

References (82)
  • 1
    • 79959352494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Role of Indian and Pacific SST in Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability
    • Achuthavarier, D., and V. Krishnamurthy, 2011: Role of Indian and Pacific SST in Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability. J. Climate, 24, 2915-2930.
    • (2011) J. Climate , vol.24 , pp. 2915-2930
    • Achuthavarier, D.1    Krishnamurthy, V.2
  • 3
  • 4
    • 0022843406 scopus 로고
    • Experimental forecasts of El Ni~no
    • Cane, M., S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Ni~no. Nature, 321, 827-832.
    • (1986) Nature , vol.321 , pp. 827-832
    • Cane, M.1    Zebiak, S.E.2    Dolan, S.C.3
  • 5
    • 0025527040 scopus 로고
    • Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts
    • Chen, T.-C., and J. C. Alpert, 1990: Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 2607-2623.
    • (1990) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.118 , pp. 2607-2623
    • Chen, T.-C.1    Alpert, J.C.2
  • 6
    • 0032740156 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual and intraseasonal variations in monsoon depressions and their westward-propagating predecessors
    • Chen, T.-C., and S.-P. Weng, 1999: Interannual and intraseasonal variations in monsoon depressions and their westward-propagating predecessors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1005-1020.
    • (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.127 , pp. 1005-1020
    • Chen, T.-C.1    Weng, S.P.2
  • 7
    • 80052420847 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimate of the predictability of boreal summer and winter intraseasonal oscillations from observations
    • Ding, R., J. Li, and K.-H. Seo, 2011: Estimate of the predictability of boreal summer and winter intraseasonal oscillations from observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2421-2438.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 2421-2438
    • Ding, R.1    Li, J.2    Seo, K.H.3
  • 8
    • 68749095363 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Critical roles of the stratiform rainfall in sustaining the Madden-Julian oscillation: GCM experiments
    • Fu, X., and B. Wang, 2009: Critical roles of the stratiform rainfall in sustaining the Madden-Julian oscillation: GCM experiments. J. Climate, 22, 3939-3959.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 3939-3959
    • Fu, X.1    Wang, B.2
  • 9
    • 80051526739 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended-range ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the northern Indian Ocean: Modulation of Madden-Julian oscillation
    • doi:101029/2011GL048249
    • Fu, X., and P. Hsu, 2011: Extended-range ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the northern Indian Ocean: Modulation of Madden-Julian oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15803, doi:10.1029/2011GL048249.
    • (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.38
    • Fu, X.1    Hsu, P.2
  • 10
    • 0141573283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coupling between northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations and sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean
    • Fu, X.,B. Wang, T. Li, and J. P. McCreary, 2003: Coupling between northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations and sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1733-1753.
    • (2003) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.60 , pp. 1733-1753
    • Fu, X.1    Wang, B.2    Li, T.3    McCreary, J.P.4
  • 11
    • 33846553199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of atmosphere- ocean coupling on the predictability of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations
    • Fu, X., D. E. Waliser, and L. Tao, 2007: Impact of atmosphere- ocean coupling on the predictability of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 157-174.
    • (2007) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.64 , pp. 157-174
    • Fu, X.1    Waliser, D.E.2    Tao, L.3
  • 12
    • 44449135978 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sea surface temperature feedback extends the predictability of tropical intraseasonal oscillation
    • Fu, X.,B. Yang, Q. Bao, and B. Wang, 2008: Sea surface temperature feedback extends the predictability of tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 577-597.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 577-597
    • Fu, X.1    Yang, B.2    Bao, Q.3    Wang, B.4
  • 13
    • 67449167864 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of initial conditions on monsoon intraseasonal forecasting
    • doi:101029/2009GL037166
    • Fu, X.,B. Wang, Q. Bao, P. Liu, and J.-Y. Lee, 2009: Impacts of initial conditions on monsoon intraseasonal forecasting. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08801, doi:10.1029/2009GL037166.
    • (2009) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.36
    • Fu, X.1    Wang, B.2    Bao, Q.3    Liu, P.4    Lee, J.Y.5
  • 14
    • 80051529398 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of dynamical intraseasonal prediction skills to different initial conditions
    • Fu, X.,J.-Y. Lee, W. Q. Wang, and L. Gao, 2011: Sensitivity of dynamical intraseasonal prediction skills to different initial conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2572-2592.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 2572-2592
    • Fu, X.1    Lee, J.Y.2    Wang, W.Q.3    Gao, L.4
  • 15
    • 0347542664 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks
    • doi:101029/2003GL017810
    • Goswami, B. N., and P. K. Xavier, 2003: Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1966, doi:10.1029/2003GL017810.
    • (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.30 , pp. 1966
    • Goswami, B.N.1    Xavier, P.K.2
  • 16
    • 0042385018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations
    • doi:101029/2002GL016734
    • Goswami, B. N., R. S. Ajayamohan, P. K. Xavier, and D. Sengupta, 2003: Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1431, doi:10.1029/2002GL016734.
    • (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.30 , pp. 1431
    • Goswami, B.N.1    Ajayamohan, R.S.2    Xavier, P.K.3    Sengupta, D.4
  • 17
    • 0034253313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new approach to detect and characterize intermittent atmospheric oscillations: Application to the intraseasonal oscillation
    • Goulet, L., and J. P. Duvel, 2000: A new approach to detect and characterize intermittent atmospheric oscillations: Application to the intraseasonal oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2397-2416.
    • (2000) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.57 , pp. 2397-2416
    • Goulet, L.1    Duvel, J.P.2
  • 18
    • 0034066983 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Medium-range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Hendon, H. H., B. Liebmann, M. Newmann, J. D. Glick, and J. E. Schemm, 2000: Medium-range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 69-86.
    • (2000) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.128 , pp. 69-86
    • Hendon, H.H.1    Liebmann, B.2    Newmann, M.3    Glick, J.D.4    Schemm, J.E.5
  • 19
    • 34648813594 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of intraseasonal variability in the nature of Asian monsoon precipitation
    • Hoyos, C. D., and P. J. Webster, 2007: The role of intraseasonal variability in the nature of Asian monsoon precipitation. J. Climate, 20, 4402-4424.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 4402-4424
    • Hoyos, C.D.1    Webster, P.J.2
  • 20
    • 77955629985 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accelerating progress in global atmospheric model development through improved parameterizations: Challenges, opportunities, and strategies
    • Jakob, C., 2010: Accelerating progress in global atmospheric model development through improved parameterizations: Challenges, opportunities, and strategies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 869-875.
    • (2010) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.91 , pp. 869-875
    • Jakob, C.1
  • 21
    • 49749100805 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Jiang, X., D. E. Waliser, M. C. Wheeler, C. Jones, M.-I. Lee, and S. D. Schubert, 2008: Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1940-1956.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 1940-1956
    • Jiang, X.1    Waliser, D.E.2    Wheeler, M.C.3    Jones, C.4    Lee, M.I.5    Schubert, S.D.6
  • 22
    • 0034023181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction skill of the Madden and Julian oscillation in dynamical extended range forecasts
    • Jones, C., D. E. Waliser, J.-K. E. Schemm, and W. K. M. Lau, 2000: Prediction skill of the Madden and Julian oscillation in dynamical extended range forecasts. Climate Dyn., 16, 273-289.
    • (2000) Climate Dyn. , vol.16 , pp. 273-289
    • Jones, C.1    Waliser, D.E.2    Schemm, J.-K.E.3    Lau, W.K.M.4
  • 23
    • 3042839803 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies
    • Jones, C., L. M. V. Carvalho, R. W. Higgins, D. E. Waliser, and J.-K. E. Schemm, 2004: A statistical forecast model of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies. J. Climate, 17, 2078-2095.
    • (2004) J. Climate , vol.17 , pp. 2078-2095
    • Jones, C.1    Carvalho, L.M.V.2    Higgins, R.W.3    Waliser, D.E.4    Schemm, J.-K.E.5
  • 24
    • 84862068218 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High-resolution climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: Experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill
    • Jung, T., and Coauthors, 2012: High-resolution climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: Experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill. J. Climate, 25, 3155-3172.
    • (2012) J. Climate , vol.25 , pp. 3155-3172
    • Jung, T.1
  • 25
    • 0035385316 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equatorial waves and air- sea interaction in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation
    • Kemball-Cook, S., and B. Wang, 2001: Equatorial waves and air- sea interaction in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 14, 2923-2942.
    • (2001) J. Climate , vol.14 , pp. 2923-2942
    • Kemball-Cook, S.1    Wang, B.2
  • 26
    • 66949117053 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Genesis of tropical cyclone Nargis revealed by multiple satellite observations
    • doi:101029/2009GL037296
    • Kikuchi, K., B. Wang, and H. Fudeyasu, 2009: Genesis of tropical cyclone Nargis revealed by multiple satellite observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L06811, doi:10.1029/2009GL037296.
    • (2009) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.36
    • Kikuchi, K.1    Wang, B.2    Fudeyasu, H.3
  • 27
    • 0001131866 scopus 로고
    • Tropical east-west circulations during the northern summer
    • Krishnamurti, T. N., 1971: Tropical east-west circulations during the northern summer. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1342-1347.
    • (1971) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.28 , pp. 1342-1347
    • Krishnamurti, T.N.1
  • 30
    • 0024189876 scopus 로고
    • Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection: A possible link between 40- 50-day oscillation and ENSO?
    • Lau, K.-M., and P. H. Chan, 1986: Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection: A possible link between 40- 50-day oscillation and ENSO? J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 506-521.
    • (1986) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.45 , pp. 506-521
    • Lau, K.-M.1    Chan, P.H.2
  • 31
    • 0027037226 scopus 로고
    • Tropical intraseasonal oscillation and its prediction by the NMC operational model
    • Lau, K.-M.,and F. C. Chang, 1992: Tropical intraseasonal oscillation and its prediction by the NMC operational model. J. Climate, 5, 1365-1378.
    • (1992) J. Climate , vol.5 , pp. 1365-1378
    • Lau, K.-M.1    Chang, F.C.2
  • 32
    • 84919704726 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System
    • 2nd ed. Springer
    • Lau, K.-M.,and D. E. Waliser, Eds., 2012: Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. 2nd ed. Springer, 613 pp.
    • (2012) , vol.613
    • Lau, K.-M.1    Waliser, D.E.2
  • 33
    • 77954952964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle?
    • Lee, J.-Y., and Coauthors, 2010: How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle? Climate Dyn., 35, 267-283.
    • (2010) Climate Dyn , vol.35 , pp. 267-283
    • Lee, J.-Y.1
  • 34
    • 84871919031 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region
    • doi:101007/s00382-012-1544-4
    • Lee, J.-Y.,B. Wang, M. Wheeler, X. Fu, D. Waliser, and I.-S. Kang, 2013: Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. ClimateDyn., 40, 493-509, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1544-4.
    • (2013) ClimateDyn. , vol.40 , pp. 493-509
    • Lee, J.-Y.1    Wang, B.2    Wheeler, M.3    Fu, X.4    Waliser, D.5    Kang, I.S.6
  • 35
    • 0000091705 scopus 로고
    • The relationship between tropical cyclones of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Liebmann, B., H. H. Hendon, and J. D. Glick, 1994: The relationship between tropical cyclones of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 72, 401-412.
    • (1994) J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , vol.72 , pp. 401-412
    • Liebmann, B.1    Hendon, H.H.2    Glick, J.D.3
  • 36
    • 27744442164 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability studies of the intraseasonal oscillation with the ECHAM5 AGCM
    • Liess, S., D. E. Waliser, and S. D. Schubert, 2005: Predictability studies of the intraseasonal oscillation with the ECHAM5 AGCM. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 3320-3336.
    • (2005) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.62 , pp. 3320-3336
    • Liess, S.1    Waliser, D.E.2    Schubert, S.D.3
  • 37
    • 57149146470 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecast skill of the Madden-Julian oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models
    • Lin, H., G. Brunet, and J. Derome, 2008: Forecast skill of the Madden-Julian oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4130-4149.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 4130-4149
    • Lin, H.1    Brunet, G.2    Derome, J.3
  • 38
    • 33745951199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate model
    • Part I: Convective signals
    • Lin, J.-L., and Coauthors, 2006: Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate model. Part I: Convective signals. J. Climate, 19, 2665-2690.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 2665-2690
    • Lin, J.-L.1
  • 39
    • 84927120004 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability-A problem partly solved Predictability of Weather and Climate
    • Eds, Cambridge University Press
    • Lorenz, E. N., 2006: Predictability-A problem partly solved. Predictability of Weather and Climate, T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 40-58.
    • (2006) T. Palmer and R. Hagedorn , pp. 40-58
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 40
    • 0000462522 scopus 로고
    • Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific
    • Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702-708.
    • (1971) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.28 , pp. 702-708
    • Madden, R.A.1    Julian, P.R.2
  • 41
    • 79957931906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of medium-range MJO forecasts with TIGGE
    • doi:101029/2011GL047480
    • Matsueda, M., and H. Endo, 2011: Verification of medium-range MJO forecasts with TIGGE. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11801, doi:10.1029/2011GL047480.
    • (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.38
    • Matsueda, M.1    Endo, H.2
  • 42
    • 44349193338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Primary and successive events in the Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Matthews, A. J., 2008: Primary and successive events in the Madden-Julian oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 439-453
    • (2008) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.134 , pp. 439-453
    • Matthews, A.J.1
  • 43
    • 20444449430 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes to the 2011 NCEP operational MRF/AVN global analysis/forecast system
    • Available online at
    • Moorthi, S, H.-L. Pan, and P. Caplan, 2011: Changes to the 2011 NCEP operational MRF/AVN global analysis/forecast system. NWS Tech. Procedures Bull. 484, 14 pp. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/tpb/484.htm.]
    • (2011) NWS Tech. Procedures Bull. , vol.484 , pp. 14
    • Moorthi, S.1    Pan, H.-L.2    Caplan, P.3
  • 44
    • 0002989319 scopus 로고
    • Intraseasonal variation of OLR in the tropics during the FGGE year
    • Nakazawa, T., 1986: Intraseasonal variation of OLR in the tropics during the FGGE year. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 64, 17-34. 4202 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 26
    • (1986) J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , vol.64 , pp. 17-34
    • Nakazawa, T.1
  • 45
    • 84880310562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MOM 3.0 manual. NOAA/GFDL
    • Pacanowski, R. C., and S. M. Griffies, 1998: MOM 3.0 manual. NOAA/GFDL, 692 pp.
    • (1998) , pp. 692
    • Pacanowski, R.C.1    Griffies, S.M.2
  • 46
    • 60749128374 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of air-sea interactions on the simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability
    • Pegion, K., and B. P. Kirtman, 2008: The impact of air-sea interactions on the simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability. J. Climate, 21, 6616-6635.
    • (2008) J. Climate , vol.21 , pp. 6616-6635
    • Pegion, K.1    Kirtman, B.P.2
  • 47
    • 84855801251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prospects for improving subseasonal predictions
    • Pegion, K.,and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2011: Prospects for improving subseasonal predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3648-3666.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 3648-3666
    • Pegion, K.1    Sardeshmukh, P.D.2
  • 48
    • 79551604637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with thePOAMA dynamical prediction system
    • Rashid, H. A., H. H. Hendon, M. C. Wheeler, and O. Alves, 2011: Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with thePOAMA dynamical prediction system. Climate Dyn., 36, 649-661.
    • (2011) Climate Dyn. , vol.36 , pp. 649-661
    • Rashid, H.A.1    Hendon, H.H.2    Wheeler, M.C.3    Alves, O.4
  • 50
    • 84880287222 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MERRA-NASA's Reanalysis: Overview of the System
    • Rienecker, M., and Coauthors, 2009: MERRA-NASA's Reanalysis: Overview of the System. [Available online at http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/Rienecker377.pdf.]
    • (2009) Available online at
    • Rienecker, M.1
  • 51
    • 0002033150 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate
    • Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Rep
    • Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Rep. 218, 90 pp.
    • (1996) , vol.218 , pp. 90
    • Roeckner, E.1
  • 52
    • 33645633207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP Climate Forecast System
    • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 3483-3517
    • Saha, S.1
  • 53
    • 77956572998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
    • Saha, S.,and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015-1057.
    • (2010) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.91 , pp. 1015-1057
    • Saha, S.1
  • 54
    • 77958095645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Madden-Julian oscillation simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System model: The importance of stratiform heating
    • Seo, K.-H., and W. Wang, 2010: The Madden-Julian oscillation simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System model: The importance of stratiform heating. J. Climate, 23, 4770-4793.
    • (2010) J. Climate , vol.23 , pp. 4770-4793
    • Seo, K.-H.1    Wang, W.2
  • 55
    • 26444584574 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecast skill of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP GFS dynamical extended range forecasts
    • Seo, K.-H., J.-K. E. Schemm, C. Jones, and S. Moorthi, 2005: Forecast skill of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP GFS dynamical extended range forecasts. ClimateDyn., 25, 265-284.
    • (2005) ClimateDyn. , vol.25 , pp. 265-284
    • Seo, K.-H.1    Schemm, J.-K.E.2    Jones, C.3    Moorthi, S.4
  • 57
    • 0032561498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability in the midst of chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting
    • Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the midst of chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science, 282, 728-731.
    • (1998) Science , vol.282 , pp. 728-731
    • Shukla, J.1
  • 59
    • 44449106541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ERAInterim: New ECMWFreanalysis products from 1989 onwards
    • Reading, United Kingdom,
    • Simmons, A., S. Uppala, D. Dee, and S. Kobayashi, 2007: ERAInterim: New ECMWFreanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 110, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 25-35.
    • (2007) ECMWF Newsletter, ECMWF , vol.110 , pp. 25-35
    • Simmons, A.1    Uppala, S.2    Dee, D.3    Kobayashi, S.4
  • 60
    • 78650503887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Surface fluxes and tropical intraseasonal variability: A reassessment
    • doi:103894/JAMES.2010.2.2
    • Sobel, A. H., E. D. Maloney, G. Bellon, and D. M. Frierson, 2010: Surface fluxes and tropical intraseasonal variability: A reassessment. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2 (2), doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.2.
    • (2010) J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. , vol.2 , Issue.2
    • Sobel, A.H.1    Maloney, E.D.2    Bellon, G.3    Frierson, D.M.4
  • 61
    • 0024907516 scopus 로고
    • A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models
    • Tiedtke, M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1779-1800.
    • (1989) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.117 , pp. 1779-1800
    • Tiedtke, M.1
  • 62
    • 0025583575 scopus 로고
    • Frequency dependence in forecast skill
    • Vanden Dool, H. M., and S. Saha, 1990: Frequency dependence in forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 128-137.
    • (1990) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.118 , pp. 128-137
    • Vanden Dool, H.M.1    Saha, S.2
  • 63
    • 68249150807 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamical extended-range prediction of early monsoon rainfall over India
    • Vitart, F., and F. Molteni, 2009: Dynamical extended-range prediction of early monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1480-1492.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 1480-1492
    • Vitart, F.1    Molteni, F.2
  • 64
    • 33947264414 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monthly forecast of the Madden-Julian oscillation using a coupled GCM
    • Vitart, F.,S. Woolnough,M. A. Balmaseda, and A. M. Tompkins, 2007: Monthly forecast of the Madden-Julian oscillation using a coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2700-2715.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 2700-2715
    • Vitart, F.1    Woolnough, S.2    Balmaseda, M.A.3    Tompkins, A.M.4
  • 65
    • 57349087338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The new VarEPS-monthly forecasting system:Afirst step towards seamless prediction
    • Vitart, F.,S.and Coauthors, 2008: The new VarEPS-monthly forecasting system:Afirst step towards seamless prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1789-1799.
    • (2008) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.134 , pp. 1789-1799
    • Vitart, F.S.1
  • 66
    • 77958475747 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of dynamical and statistical predictions of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere
    • Vitart, F.,S. A. Leroy, and M. C. Wheeler, 2010: A comparison of dynamical and statistical predictions of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3671-3682.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 3671-3682
    • Vitart, F.1    Leroy, S.A.2    Wheeler, M.C.3
  • 67
    • 0032734744 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical extended-range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden-Julian oscillation
    • Waliser, D. E., C. Jones, J. K. E. Schemm, and N. E. Graham, 1999: A statistical extended-range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Climate, 12, 1918-1939.
    • (1999) J. Climate , vol.12 , pp. 1918-1939
    • Waliser, D.E.1    Jones, C.2    Schemm, J.K.E.3    Graham, N.E.4
  • 68
    • 0142215989 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon
    • Waliser, D. E.,W. Stern, S. Schubert, and K. M. Lau, 2003: Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 2897-2925.
    • (2003) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.129 , pp. 2897-2925
    • Waliser, D.W.1    Stern, E.2    Schubert, S.3    Lau, K.M.4
  • 69
    • 84865357602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The "year" of tropical convection (May 2008-April 2010): Climate variability and weather highlights
    • Waliser, D. E.,and Coauthors, 2012: The "year" of tropical convection (May 2008-April 2010): Climate variability and weather highlights. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1189-1218.
    • (2012) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.93 , pp. 1189-1218
    • Waliser, D.E.1
  • 70
    • 0025692310 scopus 로고
    • Synoptic climatology of transient tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies: 1975-1985
    • Wang, B., and H. Rui, 1990: Synoptic climatology of transient tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies: 1975-1985. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 44, 43-61.
    • (1990) Meteor. Atmos. Phys. , vol.44 , pp. 43-61
    • Wang, B.1    Rui, H.2
  • 71
    • 0030731405 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation
    • Wang, B., and X. Xie, 1997: A model for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 72-86.
    • (1997) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.54 , pp. 72-86
    • Wang, B.1    Xie, X.2
  • 72
    • 33749668519 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Boreal summer quasi-monthly oscillation in the global tropics
    • Wang, B., P.Webster, K. Kikuchi, T. Yasunari, and Y. Qi, 2006: Boreal summer quasi-monthly oscillation in the global tropics. Climate Dyn., 27, 661-675.
    • (2006) Climate Dyn. , vol.27 , pp. 661-675
    • Wang, B.1    Webster, P.2    Kikuchi, K.3    Yasunari, T.4    Qi, Y.5
  • 73
    • 67349238245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CLiPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)
    • doi:101007/S00382-008-0460-0
    • Wang, B.,and Coauthors, 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CLiPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dyn., 33, 93-117, doi:10.1007/S00382-008-0460-0.
    • (2009) Climate Dyn. , vol.33 , pp. 93-117
    • Wang, B.1
  • 74
    • 84861813231 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR
    • doi:101007/s00382-011-1087-0
    • Wang, J., W. Wang, X. Fu, and K.-H. Seo, 2012: Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR. Climate Dyn., 38, 2191-2207, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1087-0.
    • (2012) Climate Dyn. , vol.38 , pp. 2191-2207
    • Wang, J.1    Wang, W.2    Fu, X.3    Seo, K.-H.4
  • 75
    • 77649307386 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of ocean surface on the northward propagation of the boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP climate forecast system
    • Wang, W., M. Chen, and A. Kumar, 2009: Impacts of ocean surface on the northward propagation of the boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP climate forecast system. J. Climate, 22, 6561-6576.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 6561-6576
    • Wang, W.1    Chen, M.2    Kumar, A.3
  • 76
    • 79960213626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representation of MJO variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System
    • Weaver, S., W. Q. Wang, M. Chen, and A. Kumar, 2011: Representation of MJO variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 24, 4676-4694.
    • (2011) J. Climate , vol.24 , pp. 4676-4694
    • Weaver, S.1    Wang, W.Q.2    Chen, M.3    Kumar, A.4
  • 77
    • 0035505789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time monitoring and prediction of modes of coherent synoptic to intraseasonal tropical variability
    • Wheeler, H., and K. M. Weickmann, 2001: Real-time monitoring and prediction of modes of coherent synoptic to intraseasonal tropical variability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2677-2694.
    • (2001) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.129 , pp. 2677-2694
    • Wheeler, H.1    Weickmann, K.M.2
  • 78
    • 0003632941 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
    • 2nd ed. Elsevier
    • Wilks, D. S., 2005: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Elsevier, 627 pp.
    • (2005) , pp. 627
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 79
    • 0003784713 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Hamburg ocean primitive equationmodel
    • Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum Tech. Rep
    • Wolff, J. O., E. Maier-Raimer, and S. Legutke, 1997: The Hamburg ocean primitive equationmodel.Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum Tech. Rep. 13, 98 pp.
    • (1997) , vol.13 , pp. 98
    • Wolff, J.O.1    Maier-Raimer, E.2    Legutke, S.3
  • 80
    • 33947224726 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of the ocean in the Madden-Julian oscillation: Implications for the MJO prediction
    • Woolnough, S. J., F. Vitart, and M. A. Balmaseda, 2007: The role of the ocean in the Madden-Julian oscillation: Implications for the MJO prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 117-128.
    • (2007) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.133 , pp. 117-128
    • Woolnough, S.J.1    Vitart, F.2    Balmaseda, M.A.3
  • 81
    • 0000419196 scopus 로고
    • Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon
    • Yasunari, T., 1979: Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. J.Meteor. Soc. Japan, 57, 227-242.
    • (1979) J.Meteor. Soc. Japan , vol.57 , pp. 227-242
    • Yasunari, T.1
  • 82
    • 84867664458 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relative merit of model improvement versus availability of retrospective forecasts: The case of climate forecast system MJO prediction
    • Zhang, Q., and H. Vanden Dool, 2012: Relative merit of model improvement versus availability of retrospective forecasts: The case of climate forecast system MJO prediction. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1045-1051.
    • (2012) Wea. Forecasting , vol.27 , pp. 1045-1051
    • Zhang, Q.1    Vanden Dool, H.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.