Prediction skill of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in dynamical extended range forecasts

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 16, Issue 4, 2000, Pages 273-289

  Jones, C ^a   Waliser, D E ^b   Schemm, J K E ^c   Lau, W K M ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^d NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; PREDICTION; TROPICAL METEOROLOGY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0034023181     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s003820050327     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Cai M, Whitaker JS, Dole RM, Paine KL (1996) Dynamics of systematic errors in the NMC medium range forecast model. Mon Weather Rev 124: 265-276
2. Chelliah M, Arkin P (1992) Large-scale interannual variability of monthly outgoing longwave radiation anomalies over the global tropics. J Clim 5: 371-389
3. Chen T-C, Alpert JC (1990) Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent: circulation in NMC medium-ranee forecasts. J Atmos Sci 118: 2607-2623
4. Chen WY (1989) Estimate of dynamical predictability from NMC DERF experiments. Mon Weather Rev 117: 1227-1236
5. Dole R, Paine K, Whitaker JS, Cai M (1994) Systematic errors in the NMC medium range forecast model during the 1991-92 and 1992-93 winter seasons. Proc 18th Ann Climate Diagnostic Workshop, Boulder, CO. Department of Commerc, NOAA, CAC, 370-373
6. Duchon CE (1979) Lanczos filter in one and two dimensions. J Appl Meteorol 18: 1016-1022
7. Ferranti L, Palmer TN, Molleni F, Klinker K (1990) Tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the 30-60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. J Atmos Sci 47: 2177-2199
8. Flatau M, Flatau PJ, Phoebus P, Niiler PP (1996) The feedback between equatorial convection and local radiative and evaporative processes: the implications for intraseasonal oscillations. J Atmos Sci 54: 2373-2386
9. Gates WL (1992) AMIP: the Atmospheric Model Intelcomparison Project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 73: 1962-1970
10. Hayashi Y, Golder DG (1993) Tropical 40-50 and 25-30 day oscillations appearing in realistic and idealized GFDL climate models and ECMWF dataset. J Atmos Sci 50: 464-494
11. Hendon HH, Salby ML (1994) The life cycle of the Madden and Julian Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 51: 2225-2237
12. Hendon HH, Click J (1997) Intraseasonal air-sea interaction in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. J Clim 10: 647-661
13. Hendon HH, Liebmann B, Newman ME, Click JD, Schemm JE (2000) Medium range forecasts errors associated with active episodes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In press - Mon Weather Rev
14. Jones C, Weare BC (1996) The role of low-level moisture convergence and ocean latent heat fluxes in the Madden and Julian Oscillation: an observational analysis using ISCCP data and ECMWF analyses. J Clim 9: 3086-3104
15. Jones C, Waliser DE, Gautier C (1998) The influence of the Madden and Julian Oscillation on ocean surface heat fluxes and very high sea surface temperature variability in the warm pool region. J Clim 11: 1057-1072
16. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K, Ropelewske C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77: 437-471
17. Kanamitsu M, and co-authors (1991) Recent changes in the global forecast system of NMC. Weather Forecast 6: 425-435
18. Kawamura R (1991) Air-sea coupled modes on intraseasonal and interannual time scales over the tropical western Pacific. J Geophys Res 96: 3165-3172
19. Kessler WS, McPhaden MJ, Weickmann KM (1996) Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific. J Geophys Res 100: 10613-10631
20. Kuma K (1994) The Madden and Julian oscillation and tropical disturbances in an aqua-planet version of JMA global model with T63 and T159 resolution. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 72: 147-172
21. Lau KM, Chan PH (1986) Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon Weather Rev 114: 1354-1367
22. Lau KM, Chang FC (1992) Tropical intraseasonal oscillation and its prediction by the NMC operational model. J Clim 5: 1365-1378
23. Lau K-M, Sui CH (1997) Mechanisms for short-term SST regulation: observations during TOGA COARE. J Clim 10: 465-472
24. Madden RA, Julian PR (1971) Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28: 702-708
25. Madden RA, Julian PR (1994) Observations of the 40-50 day tropical oscillation: a review. Mon Weather Rev 112: 814-837
26. Schemm JE, Van den Dool H, Saha S (1996) A multi-year DERF experiment at NCEP. 11th Conf Numerical Weather Prediction, August 19-13, 1996, Norfolk, Virginia, pp 47-49
27. Slingo JM, Sperber KR, Boyle JS, Ceron J-P, Dix M, Dugas B, Ebisuzaki W, Fyfe J, Gregory D, Gueremy J-F, Hack J, Harzallah A, Inness P, Kitoh A, Lau WK-M, McAveney B, Madden R, Mathews A, Palmer TN, Park C-K, Randall D, Renno N (1996) Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject. Clim Dyn 12: 325-357
28. Sperber KR, Slingo JM, Inness PM, Lau WK-M (1997) On the maintenance and initiation of the intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and in the GLA and UKMO AMIP simulations. Clim Dyn 13: 769-795
29. TPOP (1991) Prospectus for a tropical-oceans-global-atmosphere (TOGA) program on seasonal-to-interannual prediction. In: Cane MA, Sarachik ES, Chairpersons, NOAA Climate and Global Change Program Special Rep 4, 46 pp
30. Tracton MS, Mo K, Chen W, Kalnay E, Kistler R, White G (1989) Dynamical extended-range forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Service. Mon Weather Rev 117: 1604-1635
31. Van den Dool HM (1994) Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods. Dyn Atmos Oceans 20: 247-270
32. Waliser DE, Zhou W (1997) Removing satellite equatorial crossing time biases in the outgoing longwave radiation and highly reflective cloud data sets. J Clim 10: 2125-2146
33. Waliser DE, Graham NE, Gautier C (1993) Comparison of the highly reflective cloud and outgoing longwave data sets for use in estimating tropical deep convection. J Clim 6: 331-353
34. Waliser DE, Lau KM, Kim JH (1997) The influence of coupled sea surface temperatures on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: a model perturbation experiment. J Atmos Sci 56: 333-358
35. Waliser DE, Jones C, Schemm J-KE, Graham NE (1999a) A statistical extended-range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J Clim 12: 1918-1939
36. Waliser DE, Lau KM, Kim JH (1999b) The influence of coupled sea surface temperatures on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: a model perturbation experiment. J Atmos Sci 56: 333-358
37. Weickmann KM (1991) El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian (30-60 day) oscillations during 1981-1982. J Geophys Res 96: 3187-3195
38. Yasunari T (1979) Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the Northern Hemisphere monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 58: 225-229
39. Zhang C (1996) Atmospheric intraseasonal variability at the surface in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. J Atmos Sci 53: 739-758