Predictability-a problem partly solved

Predictability of Weather and Climate

Volumn 9780521848824, Issue , 2006, Pages 40-58

  Lorenz, Edward N ^a  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CHAOS THEORY; LYAPUNOV METHODS;

CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY; KEY FACTORS; LYAPUNOV EXPONENT; LYAPUNOV NUMBERS; PER UNIT; SLOW GROWTH;

ERRORS;

EID: 84927120004     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511617652.004     Document Type: Chapter

References (16)

1. Charney, J. G., R. G. Fleagle, V. E. Lally, H. Riehl and D. Q. Wark (1966). The feasibility of a global observation and analysis experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 47, 200-20.
2. Farrell, B. F. (1989). Optimal excitation of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1193-206.
3. Kalnay, E. and A. Dalcher (1987). Forecasting forecast skill. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 349-56.
4. Leith, C. E. (1965). Lagrangian advection in an atmospheric model. In WMO-IUGG Symposium on Research and Development Aspects of Long-range Forecasting, WMO Technical Note 66, 168-76.
5. Lorenz, E. N. (1969a). The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289-307.
6. Lorenz, E. N. (1969b). Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 636-46.
7. Lorenz, E. N. (1982). Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus, 34, 505-13.
8. Lorenz, E. N. (1993). The Essence of Chaos. University of Washington Press.
9. Mintz, Y. (1965). Very long-term global integration of the primitive equations of atmospheric motion. In WMO-IUGG Symposium on Research and Development Aspects of Long-range Forecasting, WMO Technical Note 66, 141-67.
10. Palmer, T. N. (1988). Medium and extended range predictability and stability of the Pacific/North American mode. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 691-713.
11. Simmons, A. J., R. Mureau and T. Petroliagis (1995). Error growth and estimates of predictability from the ECMWF forecasting system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1739-1771.
12. Smagorinsky, J. (1965). Implications of dynamic modelling of the general circulation on long-range forecasting. In WMO-IUGG Symposium on Research and Development Aspects of Long-range Forecasting, WMO Technical Note 66, 131-7.
13. Smagorinsky, J. (1969). Problems and promises of deterministic extended range forecasting. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 50, 286-311.
14. Thompson, P. D. (1957). Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns. Tellus, 9, 275-95.
15. Toth, Z. and E. Kalnay (1993). Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2317-30.
16. Zebiak, S. E. and M. A. Cane (1987). A model El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2262-78.