Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 134, Issue 634 A, 2008, Pages 1337-1351

  Bechtold, Peter ^a   Köhler, Martin ^a   Jung, Thomas ^a   Doblas Reyes, Francisco ^a   Leutbecher, Martin ^a   Rodwell, Mark J ^a   Vitart, Frederic ^a   Balsamo, Gianpaolo ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Atmospheric variability; Convection; Model climate; Numerical weather prediction; Tropical waves; Vertical diffusion

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC HUMIDITY; ATMOSPHERICS; COMPUTER NETWORKS; DIFFUSION; OCEAN CURRENTS; PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES; SEMICONDUCTOR DOPING; TROPOSPHERE; TROPICS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY; CONVECTION; MODEL CLIMATE; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; TROPICAL WAVES; VERTICAL DIFFUSION;

FORECASTING;

AIR TEMPERATURE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; RELATIVE HUMIDITY; TROPOSPHERE; WEATHER FORECASTING; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; DECADAL VARIATION; ENTRAINMENT; KELVIN WAVE; MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY; PARAMETERIZATION; ROSSBY WAVE; SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

EID: 50949114514     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.289     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Adler SG, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P. 2003. The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeorol. 4: 1147-1167.
2. Anderson DLT, Stockdale T, Balmaseda MA, Ferranti L, Vitart F, Molteni F, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Mogensen K, Vidard A. 2007. 'Development of the ECMWF seasonal forecast System 3'. Technical Memo. 503. ECMWF: Reading, UK. Available from http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/ references/show?id=87744.
3. Badger J, Hoskins BJ. 2000. Simple initial value problems and mechanisms for baroclinic growth. J. Atmos. Sci. 58: 38-49.
4. Balmaseda MA, Vidard A, Anderson DLT. 2008. The ECMWF ocean analysis system ORA-S3. Mon. Weather Rev. 135: 409-429.
5. Beare RJ, Thorpe AJ, White AA. 2003. The predictability of extratropical cyclones: Nonlinear sensitivity to localized potential-vorticity perturbations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 219-237.
6. Bechtold P, Chaboureau JP, Beljaars ACM, Betts AK, Köhler M, Miller M, Redelsperger JL. 2004. The simulation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation over land in global models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130: 3119-3137.
7. Berner J, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN, Shutts G, Weisheimer A. 2008. Impact of a cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. London A 366: 2561-2579.
8. Beljaars ACM, Viterbo P. 1999. The role of the boundary-layer in a numerical weather prediction model. Clear and cloudy boundary-layers. Holtslag AAM, Duynkerke PG. (eds.) North Holland.
9. Betts AK, Ball JH, Viterbo P, Dai A, Marengo JA. 2005. Hydrometeorology of the Amazon in ERA-40. J. Hydrometeorol. 6: 764-774.
10. Boville BA. 1984. The Influence of the Polar Night Jet on the tropospheric circulation in a GCM. J. Atmos. Sci. 41: 1132-1142.
11. Buizza R, Houtekamer PL, Pellerin G, Toth Z, Zhu Y, Wei M. 2005. A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Weather Rev. 133: 1076-1097.
12. Derbyshire SH, Beau I, Bechtold P, Grandpeix J-Y, Piriou J-M, Redelsperger J-L, Soares PMM. 2004. Sensitivity of moist convection to environmental humidity. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130: 3055-3079.
13. Done JM, Craig GC, Gray SL, Clark PA, Gray MEB. 2006. Mesoscale simulations of organized convection: importance of convective equilibrium. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132: 737-756.
14. Edmon HJ, Hoskins BJ, McIntyre MW. 1981. Eliassen-Palm cross section for the troposphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 37: 2600-2616.
15. Gill AE. 1980. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 106: 447-462.
16. Grabowski WW, Moncrieff MW. 2004. Moisture-convection feedback in the tropics Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130: 3081-3104.
17. Håkånsson M. 2002. A two-dimensional numerical study of effects of vertical diffusion in frontal zones. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128: 2439-2467.
18. Haimberger L, Hantel M. 2000. Implementing convection into Lorenz's global cycle: Part. A new estimate of the conversion rate into kinetic energy. Tellus 52A: 75-92.
19. Horinouchi T, Pawson S, Shibata K, Langematz U, Manzini E, Giorgetta MA, Sassi F, Wilson RJ, Hamilton K, de Grandpré J, Scaife AA. 2003. Tropical cumulus convection and upward-propagating waves in middle-atmospheric GCMs. J. Atmos. Sci. 60: 2765-2782.
20. Jung T. 2005. Systematic errors of the atmospheric circulation in the ECMWF forecasting system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 1045-1073.
21. Jung T, Barkmeijer J. 2006. Sensitivity of the tropospheric circulation to changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. Mon. Weather Rev. 134: 2191-2207.
22. Jung T, Gulev SK, Rudeva I, Soloviov V. 2006. Sensitivity of extratropical cyclones characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132: 1839-1857.
23. Khairoutdinov MF, Randall DA, DeMott C. 2005. Simulations of the atmospheric general circulation using a cloud-resolving model as a super-parameterization of physical processes J. Atmos. Sci. 62: 2136-2154.
24. Leutbecher M, Palmer T. 2008. Ensemble forecasting. J. Comput. Phys. 227: 3515-3539.
25. Lin J-L, Lee M-I, Kim D, Kang I-S, Frierson DMW. 2008. The impacts of convective parameterization and moisture triggering on AGCM-simulated convectively coupled equatorial waves. J. Climate 21: 883-909.
26. Lorenc AC, Payne T. 2007. 4D-Var and the butterfly effect: Statistical four-dimensional data asimilation for a wide range of scales. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133: 607-614.
27. Lopez P, Moreau E. 2005. A convection scheme for data assimilation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 409-436.
28. Louis JF, Tiedtke M, Geleyn JF. 1982. 'A short history of the PBL parameterization at ECMWF'. Pp 59-79 in Proceedings of Workshop on boundary-layer parameterization. ECMWF: Reading, UK.
29. Masunaga H. 2007, Seasonality and regionality of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Kelvin wave and equatorial Rossby wave. J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 4400-4416.
30. Morcrette J-J, Barker HW, Cole JNS, Iacono MH, Pincus R. 2008. Impact of a new radiation package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Mon. Weather Rev. (in press).
31. Nasumo T, Tomita H, Iga S, Miura H, Satoh M. 2007. Multiscale organization of convection simulated with explicit cloud processes on an aquaplanet. J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 1902-1921.
32. Peixoto JP, Oort AH. 1992. Physics of Climate. American Institute of Physics: Melville, New York. 520 pp.
33. Redelsperger JL, Parsons DB, Guichard F. 2002. Recovery processes and factors limiting cloud-top height following the arrival of a dry intrusion observed during TOGA-COARE. J. Atmos. Sci. 59: 2438-2457.
34. Ricciardulli L, Garcia RR. 2000. The excitation of equatorial waves by deep convection in the NCAR community climate model (CCM3). J. Atmos. Sci. 57: 3461-3487.
35. Rodwell MJ, Palmer TN. 2007. Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133: 129-146.
36. Scinocca JF, McFarlane NA. 2004. The variability of modeled tropical precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci. 61: 1993-2015.
37. Shutts G. 2007. The forcing of large-scale waves in an explicit simulation of deep tropical convection. Dyn. Atmos. Ocean published online DOI:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.11.001.
38. Simmons AJ, Hollingsworth A. 2002. Some aspects of the improvement of skill of numerical weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128: 647-677.
39. Skamarock WC. 2004. Evaluating mesoscale NWP models using kinetic energy spectra. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 3019-3032.
40. Slingo J, Blackburn M, Betts A, Brugge R, Hodges K, Hoskins B, Miller M, Steenman-Clark L, Thuburn J. 1994. Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM: Sensitivity to convective parametrization. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 120: 881-922.
41. Sobel AH, Nilsson J, Polvani LM. 2001. The week temperature gradient approximation and balanced tropical moisture waves. J. Atmos. Sci. 58: 3650-3665.
42. Steinheimer M, Hantel M, Bechtold P. 2008. Convection in Lorenz's global energy cycle with the ECMWF model. Tellus A (in press), also available as ECMWF Technical Memo. 545 from http://www.ecmwf.int/ publications/library/do/references/list/14.
43. Simmons AJ, Hollingsworth A. 2002. Some aspects of the improvement of skill of numerical weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132: 1917-1932.
44. Tindall JC, Thuburn J, Highwood EJ. 2006. Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. II: Annual and interannual variability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 195-212.
45. Uppala S, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, Da Costa Bechtold V, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Holm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf J-F, Morcrette J-J, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J. 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 2761-2779.
46. Wedi NP, Smolarkiewicz PK. 2007. A reduced model of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Int. J. Numer. Meth. Fluids published online DOI:10.1002/fid.1612.
47. Wheeler MC, Hendon HH. 2004. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 1917-1932.
48. Wheeler MC, Kiladis GN. 1999. Convectively coupled equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wavenumber-frequency domain. J. Atmos. Sci. 56: 374-399.
49. Wheeler MC, Weickmann K. 2001. Real-time monitoring and prediction of modes of coherent synoptic to intraseasonal tropical variability. Mon. Weather Rev. 129: 2677-2694.
50. Wheeler MC, Kiladis GN, Webster PJ. 2000. Large-scale dynamical fields associated with convectively coupled equatorial waves. J. Atmos. Sci. 57: 613-640.
51. Wilks SD. 1995. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press.
52. Žagar NE, Andersson E, Fisher M. 2005. Balanced tropical data assimilation based on a study of equatorial waves in ECMWF short-range forecast errors. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 987-1011.