The Last Glacial Maximum distribution of South African subtropical thicket inferred from community distribution modelling

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 40, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 310-322

  Potts, Alastair J ^a   Hedderson, Terry A ^a   Franklin, Janet ^b   Cowling, Richard M ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

^b ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c NELSON MANDELA METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Climate envelope modelling; Ensemble modelling; Last Glacial Maximum; Pleistocene refugia; Range shifts; South Africa; Subtropical thicket; Vegetation modelling

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; DATA SET; GENE FLOW; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; PALEOCLIMATE; RANGE EXPANSION; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; SUBTROPICAL REGION;

SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 84872534348     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: 13652699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02788.x     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Alsos, I.G., Alm, T., Normand, S. & Brochmann, C. (2009) Past and future range shifts and loss of diversity in dwarf willow (Salix herbacea L.) inferred from genetics, fossils and modelling. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 18, 223-239.
2. Araújo, M.B. & New, M. (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22, 42-47.
3. Beaumont, L.J., Hughes, L. & Pitman, A.J. (2008) Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important? Ecology Letters, 11, 1135-1146.
4. 4 grasslands and savannas? Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 39, 641-659.
5. 2 and fire in promoting the spread of grasslands and savannas. Global Change Biology, 9, 973-982.
6. Carnaval, A.C. & Moritz, C. (2008) Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Journal of Biogeography, 35, 1187-1201.
7. Chase, B.M. & Meadows, M.E. (2007) Late Quaternary dynamics of southern Africa's winter rainfall zone. Earth-Science Reviews, 84, 103-138.
8. Collins, W.D., Bitz, C.M., Blackmon, M.L., Bonan, G.B., Bretherton, C.S., Carton, J.A., Chang, P., Doney, S.C., Hack, J.J., Henderson, T.B., Kiehl, J.T., Large, W.G., McKenna, D.S., Santer, B.D. & Smith, R.D. (2004) The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Journal of Climate, 19, 2122-2143.
9. Cowling, R.M., Procheş, Ş. & Vlok, J.H.J. (2005) On the origin of southern African subtropical thicket vegetation. South African Journal of Botany, 71, 1-23.
10. Crisp, M.D., Arroyo, M.T.K., Cook, L.G., Gandolfo, M.A., Jordan, G.J., McGlone, M.S., Weston, P.H., Westoby, M., Wilf, P. & Linder, H.P. (2009) Phylogenetic biome conservatism on a global scale. Nature, 458, 754-756.
11. Deacon, H.J., Deacon, J., Scholtz, A., Thackeray, J.F. & Brink, J.S. (1984) Correlation of palaeoenvironmental data from the Late Pleistocene and Holocene deposits at Boomplaas Cave, southern Cape. Late Cainozoic palaeoclimates of the Southern Hemisphere (ed. by J.C. Vogel), pp. 339-360. Balkema, Rotterdam.
12. Dormann, C.F. (2007) Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic and Applied Ecology, 8, 387-397.
13. Dynesius, M. & Jansson, R. (2000) Evolutionary consequences of changes in species' geographical distributions driven by Milankovitch climate oscillations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 97, 9115-9120.
14. Elith, J. & Graham, C.H. (2009) Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography, 32, 66-77.
15. Elith, J., Kearney, M. & Phillips, S. (2010) The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 1, 330-342.
16. Faith, J.T. (2012) Palaeozoological insights into management options for a threatened mammal: southern Africa's Cape mountain zebra (Equus zebra zebra). Diversity and Distributions, 18, 438-447.
17. Franklin, J. (1995) Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography, 19, 474-499.
18. Franklin, J. (2010) Mapping species distributions: spatial inference and prediction. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
19. Freeman, E.A. & Moisen, G.G. (2008) A comparison of the performance of threshold criteria for binary classification in terms of predicted prevalence and kappa. Ecological Modelling, 217, 48-58.
20. Govender, N., Trollope, W.S.W. & Van Wilgen, B.W. (2006) The effect of fire season, fire frequency, rainfall and management on fire intensity in savanna vegetation in South Africa. Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 748-758.
21. Hamilton, A.C. & Taylor, D. (1991) History of climate and forests in tropical Africa during the last 8 million years. Climate Change, 19, 65-78.
22. Harte, J., Ostling, A., Green, J.L. & Kinzig, A. (2004) Biodiversity conservation: climate change and extinction risk. Nature, 430, 6995.
23. Hasumi, H. & Emori, S. (2004) K-1 coupled GCM (MIROC) description. Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Tokyo.
24. Hewitt, G.M. (2004) Genetic consequences of climatic oscillations in the Quaternary. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 359, 183-195.
25. Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
26. Hilbert, D.W., Graham, A. & Hopkins, M.S. (2007) Glacial and interglacial refugia within a long-term rainforest refugium: the Wet Tropics Bioregion of NE Queensland, Australia. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 251, 104-118.
27. Hugall, A., Moritz, C., Moussalli, A. & Stanisic, J. (2002) Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the wet tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 99, 6112-6117.
28. Huntley, B. (1990) European post-glacial forests: compositional changes in response to climatic change. Journal of Vegetation Science, 1, 507-518.
29. Hutchinson, M.F. (1995) Interpolating mean rainfall using thin plate smoothing splines. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 9, 385-403.
30. Jansson, R. & Dynesius, M. (2002) The fate of clades in a world of recurrent climatic change: Milankovitch oscillations and evolution. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 33, 741-777.
31. Klein, R.G. (1980) Environmental and ecological implications of large mammals from Upper Pleistocene and Holocene sites in southern Africa. Annals of the South African Museum, 81, 223-283.
32. Lewis, C.A. (2008) Late Quaternary climatic changes, and associated human responses, during the last ~45000 years in the Eastern and adjoining Western Cape, South Africa. Earth-Science Reviews, 88, 167-187.
33. Liu, C., Berry, P.M., Dawson, T.P. & Pearson, R.G. (2005) Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, 28, 385-393.
34. Loarie, S.R., Carter, B.E., Hayhoe, K., McMahon, S., Moe, R., Knight, C.A. & Ackerly, D.D. (2008) Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora. PLoS ONE, 3, e2502.
35. Lobo, J.M., Jiménez-Valverde, A. & Real, R. (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 145-151.
36. Low, A.B. & Rebelo, A.G. (1996) Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria.
37. Martínez-Meyer, E. & Peterson, A.T. (2006) Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1779-1789.
38. Mather, J.R. & Yoshioka, G.A. (1968) The role of climate in the distribution of vegetation. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 58, 29-41.
39. Médail, F. & Diadema, K. (2009) Glacial refugia influence plant diversity patterns in the Mediterranean Basin. Journal of Biogeography, 36, 1333-1345.
40. Midgley, G. & Roberts, R. (2003) Past climate change and the generation and persistence of species richness in a biodiversity hotspot, the Cape flora of South Africa. Global change and protected areas (ed. by G. Visconti, M. Beniston, E. Iannorelli and D. Barba), pp. 393-402. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA.
41. Moffett, R.O. & Deacon, H.J. (1977) The flora and vegetation in the surrounds of Boomplaas Cave: Cango Valley. South African Archaeological Bulletin, 32, 127-145.
42. Moussalli, A., Moritz, C., Williams, S.E. & Carnaval, A.C. (2009) Variable responses of skinks to a common history of rainforest fluctuation: concordance between phylogeography and palaeo-distribution models. Molecular Ecology, 18, 483-499.
43. Mucina, L. & Rutherford, M.C. (2006) Vegetation map of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. South African National Biodiversity Institute, Pretoria.
44. Pearman, P.B., Randin, C.F., Broennimann, O., Vittoz, P., van der Knaap, W.O., Engler, R., Le Lay, G., Zimmermann, N.E. & Guisan, A. (2008) Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia. Ecology Letters, 11, 357-369.
45. Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Martinez-Meyer, E., Brotons, L., McClean, C., Miles, L., Segurado, P., Dawson, T.P. & Lees, D.C. (2006) Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1704-1711.
46. Petitpierre, B., Kueffer, C., Broennimann, O., Randin, C., Daehler, C. & Guisan, A. (2012) Climatic niche shifts are rare among terrestrial plant invaders. Science, 335, 1344-1348.
47. Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
48. Price, B.W., Barker, N.P. & Villet, M.H. (2010) A watershed study on genetic diversity: phylogenetic analysis of the Platypleura plumosa (Hemiptera: Cicadidae) complex reveals catchment-specific lineages. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 54, 617-626.
49. Riordan, E.C. & Rundel, P.W. (2009) Modelling the distribution of a threatened habitat: the California sage scrub. Journal of Biogeography, 36, 2176-2188.
50. Ritz, C.M., Zimmermann, N.F.A. & Hellwig, F.H. (2003) Phylogeny of subsect. Meleuphorbia (A. Berger) Pax & Hoffm. (Euphorbia L.) reflects the climatic regime in South Africa. Plant Systematics and Evolution, 241, 245-259.
51. Scheiter, S. & Higgins, S.I. (2009) Impacts of climate change on the vegetation of Africa: an adaptive dynamic vegetation modelling approach. Global Change Biology, 15, 2224-2246.
52. Scholtz, A. (1986) Palynological and palaeobotanical studies in the Southern Cape. MSc Thesis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
53. Scott, L., Holmgren, K. & Partridge, T.C. (2008) Reconciliation of vegetation and climatic interpretations of pollen profiles and other regional records from the last 60 thousand years in the savanna biome of Southern Africa. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 257, 198-206.
54. Soltis, D.E., Morris, A.B., McLachlan, J.S., Manos, P.S. & Soltis, P.S. (2006) Comparative phylogeography of unglaciated eastern North America. Molecular Ecology, 15, 4261-4293.
55. Steenkamp, Y., Van Wyk, B., Victor, J., Hoare, D., Smith, G., Dold, T. & Cowling, R. (2004) Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany. Hotspots revisited: Earth's biologically richest and most endangered terrestrial ecoregions (ed. by R.A. Mittermeier, P. Robles Gil, M. Hoffman, J.D. Pilgrim, T.M. Brooks, C.G. Mittermeier, J. Lamoreux and G.A.B. da Fonseca), pp. 219-228. CEMEX, Mexico City.
56. Svenning, J.-C., Fløjgaard, C., Marske, K.A., Nógues-Bravo, D. & Normand, S. (2011) Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 2930-2947.
57. Swets, J.A. (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 1285-1239.
58. Synes, N.W. & Osborne, P.E. (2011) Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 904-914.
59. Taberlet, P., Fumagalli, L., Wust-Saucy, A.-G. & Cosson, J.-F. (1998) Comparative phylogeography and postglacial colonization routes in Europe. Molecular Ecology, 7, 453-464.
60. Thuiller, W. (2004) Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biology, 10, 2020-2027.
61. Tribsch, A. & Schönswetter, P. (2003) Patterns of endemism and comparative phylogeography confirm palaeoenvironmental evidence for Pleistocene refugia in the eastern Alps. Taxon, 52, 477-497.
62. Trollope, W.S.W. (1974) Role of fire in preventing bush encroachment in the Eastern Cape. Proceedings of the Annual Congresses of the Grassland Society of Southern Africa, 9, 67-72.
63. VanDerWal, J., Shoo, L.P. & Williams, S.E. (2009) New approaches to understanding late Quaternary climate fluctuations and refugial dynamics in Australian wet tropical rain forests. Journal of Biogeography, 36, 291-301.
64. Veloz, S.D., Williams, J.W., Blois, J.L., He, F., Otto-Bliesner, B. & Liu, Z. (2011) No-analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late Quaternary: implications for 21st-century predictions by species distribution models. Global Change Biology, 18, 1698-1713.
65. Vlok, J.H.J., Euston-Brown, D.I.W. & Cowling, R.M. (2003) Acocks' Valley bushveld 50 years on: new perspectives on the delimitation, characterisation and origin of subtropical thicket vegetation. South African Journal of Botany, 69, 27-51.
66. Vlok, J.H.J., Cowling, R.M. & Wolf, T. (2005) A vegetation map for the Little Karoo. Centre for Biodiversity Conservation, Cape Town, South Africa.
67. Webb, T., Shuman, B. & Williams, J.W. (2003) Climatically forced vegetation dynamics in eastern North America during the Late Quaternary period. Developments in Quaternary Sciences, 1, 459-478.
68. von Willert, D.J., Eller, B.M., Werger, M.J.A. & Brinckmann, E. (1990) Desert succulents and their life strategies. Vegetatio, 90, 133-143.
69. Williams, J.W., Shuman, B.N. & Webb, T. (2001) Dissimilarity analyses of late-Quaternary vegetation and climate in eastern North America. Ecology, 82, 3346-3362.
70. Williams, J.W., Shuman, B.N., Webb, T., Bartlein, P.J. & Leduc, P.L. (2004) Late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in North America: scaling from taxa to biomes. Ecological Monographs, 74, 309-334.
71. Woodward, F.I. (1987) Climate and plant distribution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
72. Zachos, J., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E. & Billups, K. (2001) Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present. Science, 292, 686-693.