Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 20, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 904-914

  Synes, Nicholas W ^a   Osborne, Patrick E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bioclimatic variables; Climate change; Equifinality; Europe; Map comparison techniques; Predictor variables; Species distribution models; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

BIOCLIMATOLOGY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; ECOLOGICAL IMPACT; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; NATURE CONSERVATION; PREDICTION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

OTIS TARDA;

EID: 80053621701     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00635.x     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Araújo, M.B. & Guisan, A. (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1677-1688.
2. Araújo, M.B. & New, M. (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22, 42-47.
3. Araújo, M.B., Cabezas, M., Thuiller, W., Hannah, L. & Williams, P.H. (2004) Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Global Change Biology, 10, 1618-1626.
4. Araújo, M.B., Whittaker, R.J., Ladle, R.J. & Erhard, M. (2005) Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 529-538.
5. Attorre, F., Alfo, M., De Sanctis, M., Francesconi, F. & Bruno, F. (2007) Comparison of interpolation methods for mapping climatic and bioclimatic variables at regional scale. International Journal of Climatology, 27, 1825-1843.
6. Austin, M. (2007) Species distribution models and ecological theory: a critical assessment and some possible new approaches. Ecological Modelling, 200, 1-19.
7. Bakkenes, M., Alkemade, J.R.M., Ihle, F., Leemans, R. & Latour, J.B. (2002) Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology, 8, 390-407.
8. Beaumont, L.J., Hughes, L. & Poulsen, M. (2005) Predicting species distributions: use of climatic parameters in BIOCLIM and its impact on predictions of species' current and future distributions. Ecological Modelling, 186, 250-269.
9. Beven, K.J. & Freer, J. (2001) Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology, 249, 11-29.
10. Brock, T. (1981) Calculating solar radiation for ecological studies. Ecological Modelling, 14, 1-19.
11. Buisson, L., Thuiller, W., Casajus, N., Lek, S. & Grenouillet, G. (2010) Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Global Change Biology, 16, 1145-1157.
12. Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Bini, L.M., Rangel, T.F., Loyola, R.D., Hof, C., Nogués-Bravo, D. & Araújo, M.B. (2009) Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change. Ecography, 32, 897-906.
13. Dormann, C.F., Purschke, O., García Márquez, J.R., Lautenbach, S. & Schröder, B. (2008) Components of uncertainty in species distribution analysis: a case study of the great grey shrike. Ecology, 89, 3371-3386.
14. Doswald, N., Willis, S.G., Collingham, Y.C., Pain, D.J., Green, R.E. & Huntley, B. (2009) Potential impacts of climatic change on the breeding and non-breeding ranges and migration distance of European Sylvia warblers. Journal of Biogeography, 36, 1194-1208.
15. Elith, J. & Graham, C.H. (2009) Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography, 32, 1, 66-77.
16. Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Anderson, R.P. etal. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129-151.
17. Erasmus, B.F.N., Van Jaarsveld, A.S., Chown, S.L., Kshatriya, M. & Wessels, K.J. (2002) Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change. Global Change Biology, 8, 679-693.
18. Estrada-Peña, A. & Thuiller, W. (2008) An assessment of the effect of data partitioning on the performance of modelling algorithms for habitat suitability for ticks. Medical and Veterinary Entomology, 22, 248-257.
19. Federer, C.A. & Lash, D. (1978) BROOK - a hydrologic simulation model for eastern forests. Research Report Number 19. Water Resources Research Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH.
20. Graham, M. (2003) Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multiple regression. Ecology, 84, 2809-2815.
21. Gregory, R.D., Willis, S.G., Jiguet, F., Voříšek, P., Klvanová, A., van Strien, A., Huntley, B., Collingham, Y.C., Couvet, D. & Green, R. (2009) An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations. PLoS ONE, 4, e4678, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0004678.
22. Hamon, W. (1961) Estimating potential evapotranspiration. Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 87, 107-120.
23. Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M., Butt, N. & New, M. (2006) Modelling climate change impacts on species' distributions at the European scale: implications for conservation policy. Environmental Science and Policy, 9, 116-128.
24. Heikkinen, R.K., Luoto, M. & Virkkala, R. (2006) Does seasonal fine-tuning of climatic variables improve the performance of bioclimatic envelope models for migratory birds? Diversity and Distributions, 12, 502-510.
25. Heredia, B., Rose, L. & Painter, M. (1996) Globally threatened birds in Europe. Council of Europe Publishing, Strasbourg.
26. Hijmans, R.J. & Graham, C.H. (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology, 12, 2272-2281.
27. Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
28. Houghton, J. (2004) Global warming: the complete briefing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
29. Huntley, B., Collingham, Y.C., Green, R.E., Hilton, G.M., Rahbek, C. & Willis, S.G. (2006) Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds. Ibis, 148, 8-28.
30. Jiménez-Valverde, A. & Lobo, J.M. (2007) Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence. Acta Oecologica, 31, 361-369.
31. Jiménez-Valverde, A., Lobo, J.M. & Hortal, J. (2008) Not as good as they seem: the importance of concepts in species distribution modelling. Diversity and Distributions, 14, 885-890.
32. Li, J., Hilbert, D.W., Parker, T. & Williams, S. (2009) How do species respond to climate change along an elevation gradient? A case study of the grey-headed robin (Heteromyias albispecularis). Global Change Biology, 15, 255-267.
33. Lobo, J.M., Jiménez-Valverde, A. & Real, R. (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 145-151.
34. Luoto, M., Pöyry, J., Heikkinen, R.K. & Saarinen, K. (2005) Uncertainty of bioclimate envelope models based on the geographical distribution of species. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 575-584.
35. Luoto, M., Virkkala, R. & Heikkinen, R.K. (2007) The role of land cover in bioclimatic models depends on spatial resolution. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 34-42.
36. Moilanen, A., Runge, M.C., Elith, J., Tyre, A., Carmel, Y., Fegraus, E., Wintle, B.A., Burgman, M. & Ben-Haim, Y. (2006) Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis. Ecological Modelling, 199, 115-124.
37. Osborne, P.E. & Leitão, P.J. (2009) Effects of species and habitat positional errors on the performance and interpretation of species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 671-681.
38. Osborne, P.E., Suárez-Seoane, S. & Alonso, J.C. (2007) Behavioural mechanisms that undermine species envelope models: the causes of patchiness in the distribution of great bustards Otis tarda in Spain. Ecography, 30, 819-828.
39. Pearson, R.G., Dawson, T.P., Berry, P.M. & Harrison, P.A. (2002) SPECIES: a spatial evaluation of climate impact on the envelope of species. Ecological Modelling, 154, 289-300.
40. Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Martinez-Meyer, E., Brotons, L., McClean, C., Miles, L., Seguardo, P., Dawson, T.P. & Lees, D.C. (2006) Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1704-1711.
41. Peterson, A.T. & Nakazawa, Y. (2008) Environmental data sets matter in ecological niche modelling: an example with Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 135-144.
42. Phillips, S.J. & Dudík, M. (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161-175.
43. Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
44. Phillips, S.J., Dudík, M., Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Lehmann, A., Leathwick, J. & Ferrier, S. (2009) Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data. Ecological Applications, 19, 181-197.
45. Prentice, I.C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S.P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R.A. & Solomon, A.M. (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography, 19, 117-134.
46. Pyzoha, J.E., Callahan, T.J., Sun, G., Trettin, C.C. & Miwa, M. (2008) A conceptual hydrologic model for a forested Carolina bay depressional wetland on the Coastal Plain of South Carolina, USA. Hydrological Processes, 22, 2689-2698.
47. Raes, N. & Ter Steege, H. (2007) A null-model for significance testing of presence-only species distribution models. Ecography, 30, 727-736.
48. Segurado, P. & Araújo, M.B. (2004) An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. Journal of Biogeography, 31, 1555-1568.
49. Stainforth, D.A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J.M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L.A., Spicer, R.A., Thorpe, A.J. & Allen, M.R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of climate responses to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433, 403-406.
50. Tateishi, R. & Ahn, C.H. (1996) Mapping evapotranspiration and water balance for global land surfaces. Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 51, 209-215.
51. Thuiller, W. (2003) BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biology, 9, 1353-1362.
52. Vaughan, I.P. & Ormerod, S.J. (2005) The continuing challenges of testing species distribution models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 42, 720-730.
53. Visser, H. & de Nijs, T. (2006) The map comparison kit. Environmental Modelling and Software, 21, 346-358.
54. Wentz, F.J., Ricciardulli, L., Hilburn, K. & Mears, C. (2007) How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233-235.
55. Wintle, B.A., McCarthy, M.A., Volinsky, C.T. & Kavanagh, R.P. (2003) The use of Bayesian model averaging to better represent uncertainty in ecological models. Conservation Biology, 17, 1579-1590.