Moving beyond optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation: An explanation for social infrastructure project cost overruns

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

Volumn 59, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 560-571

  Love, Peter E D ^a   Edwards, David J ^b   Irani, Zahir ^c  

^a CURTIN UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b BIRMINGHAM CITY UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^c BRUNEL UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Design errors; overruns; pathogens; social infrastructure

Indexed keywords

COST AND SCHEDULE; DESIGN ERRORS; ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE; INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT; OPTIMISM BIAS; OVERRUNS; PROJECT COST; SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE; SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS;

PATHOGENS; RESEARCH;

COSTS;

EID: 84867839822     PISSN: 00189391     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TEM.2011.2163628     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. S. Andi and T. Minato, "Design document quality in the Japanese construction industry: Factors influencing and impacts on the construction process," Int. J. Project Manage., vol. 21, pp. 537-546, 2003. (Pubitemid 37257103)
2. J. Bell, "Causation and causal conditions," in Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on the Principles of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning, D. Dubios, C. A. Welty, and M.-A. Williams, Eds. Menlo Park, CA: AAAI Press, 2004, pp. 2-11, Eds.
3. J. Bell, "Natural events," J. Artif. Intell. Res., vol. 30, pp. 361-412, 2007.
4. J. S. Busby and E. J. Hughes, "Projects, pathogens, and incubation periods," Int. J. Project Manage., vol. 22, pp. 425-434, 2004.
5. S. O. Cheung and T. W. Yiu, "Are construction disputes inevitable?," IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage., vol. 53, no. 3, pp. 456-470, Aug. 2006. (Pubitemid 44149432)
6. P. B. Crosby, Quality is Free: The Art of Making Quality Certain. New York: New Amer. Library, 1979.
7. European Commission. (2003). Guidelines for Successful Public-Private Partnerships. European Commission. [Online]. Available: http://ec.europa.eu/ regional-policy (last accessed May 15, 2010).
8. B. Flyvbjerg, M. K. Skamris, and S. L. Buhl, "What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects?," Transp. Rev., vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 3-18, 2004. (Pubitemid 38187880)
9. B. Flyvbjerg, M. K. Skamris, and S. L. Buhl, "How (in)accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects," J. Am. Planning Assoc., vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 131-146, 2005. (Pubitemid 40919247)
10. B. Flyvbjerg, "Five misunderstandings about case-study research," Qualitative Inquiry, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 219-245, 2006. (Pubitemid 43538853)
11. B. Flyvbjerg, "Curbing optimism and strategic misrepresentation in planning: Reference class forecasting in practice," Eur. Planning Stud., vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 1-21, 2008.
12. B. Flyvbjerg, M. Garbuio, and D. Lovallo, "Delusion and deception in large infrastructure projects: Two models for explaining and preventing executive disaster," California Manage. Rev., vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 170-193, 2009.
13. S. Fox, L. Marsh, and G. Cockerham, "Design for manufacture: A strategy for successful application to buildings," Construct. Manage. Econ., vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 493-502, 2001. (Pubitemid 32635990)
14. C. Hitchcock, "The intransitivity of causation revealed in equations and graphs," J. Philosophy, vol. 98, pp. 273-299, 2001.
15. K. Krippendorf, Content Analysis: An Introduction to its Methodology. Newbury Park, London, U.K.: Sage, 1980.
16. S. Kvale, Interviews: An Introduction to Qualitative Research Interviewing. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1996.
17. Y. H. Kwak, Y. Y. Chih, and C. W. Ibbs, "Towards a comprehensive understanding of public private partnerships for infrastructure development," California Manage. Rev., vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 51-78, 2009.
18. D. Lewis, "Causation," J. Philosophy, vol. 60, pp. 17-25, 1973.
19. P. E. D. Love, D. Edwards, and J. Smith, "Contract documentation quality and rework in Australian projects," J. Architectural Eng. Design Manage., vol. 1, pp. 247-259, 2006.
20. P. E. D. Love, P. Davis, D. Baccarini, and D. Edwards, "Uncertainty avoidance: Public sector clients and procurement selection," Int. J. Public Sector Manage., vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 753-776, 2008.
21. P. E. D. Love, D. J. Edwards, and Z. Irani, "Forensic project management: An exploratory examination of the causal behaviour of design-induced error," IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage., vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 234-248, May 2008.
22. P. E. D. Love, D. J. Edwards, J. Smith, and D. H. T. Walker, "Congruence or divergence? A path model of rework in building and civil engineering projects," ASCE J. Perform. Construct. Facilities, vol. 23, no. 6, pp. 480-488, 2009.
23. P. E. D. Love, D. J. Edwards, Z. Irani, and D. H. T. Walker, "Project pathogens: The anatomy of omission errors in construction and resource engineering projects," IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage., vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 425-435, Aug. 2009.
24. N. Lowry, "Government procurement of capital works and competition policy: Their effect on quantity surveying profession and ramifications for the community," Australian Inst. Quantity Surveyors, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, Res. Rep., 1996.
25. M. R. Manavazhi and Z. Xunzhi, "Productivity oriented analysis of design revisions," Construct. Manage. Econ., vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 379-391, 2001. (Pubitemid 32548456)
26. K. Petroutsatou and S. Lambropoulos, "Road tunnels construction cost estimation: A structural equation model development and comparison," Oper. Res., vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 163-173, 2009.
27. C. Powell, "Responding to marginalisation," Architectural Res. Quart., vol. 2, pp. 84-89, 1997.
28. C. C. Ragin, Constructing Social Research: The Unity and Diversity of Method. Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press, 1994.
29. P. Raisbeck, C. Duffied, and M. Xu, "Comparative performance of PPPs and traditional procurement in Australia," Construct. Manage. Econ., vol. 28, pp. 345-359, 2010.
30. J. T. Reason, "Human error: Models and management," Brit. Med. J., vol. 320, no. 7237, pp. 768-770, 2000.
31. J. T. Reason and A. Hobbs, Managing Maintenance Error: A Practical Guide. Burlington, VT: Ashgate Publishing Co., 2003.
32. G. Rounce, "Quality, waste, and cost consideration in architectural building design management," Int. J. Project Manage., vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 123-127, 1998.
33. D. Silverman,Interpreting Qualitative Data. London, U.K.: Sage, 2001.
34. M. Symes, J. Eley, and A. D. Seidal, Architects and Their Practices: A Changing Profession. London, U.K: Butterworths, 1995.
35. D. H. T. Walker, "An investigation into construction time performance," Construct. Manage. Econ., vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 265-274, 1995.
36. Western Australian Auditor General's Report. (2010, May 15). The Planning and Management of Perth Arena. [Online]. Available: www.audit.wa.gov.au.
37. G. M. Winch and E. Scheider, "Managing the knowledge based organization: The case of architectural practice," J. Manage. Stud., vol. 30, no. 6, pp. 923-937, 1993.
38. G. M. Winch and E. Scheider, "The strategic management of architectural practice," Construct. Manage. Econ., vol. 11, pp. 467-473, 1993.
39. R. Yin, Case Study Research: Design and Methods (Applied Social Science Research Methods Series), vol. 5. Beverley Hills, CA: Sage, 1984.
40. F. Znaniecki, The Method of Sociology. New York: Farrar and Rinehart, 1934.
41. P. E. D. Love, D. Edwards, and E. Wood, "Loosening the Gordian Knot: The role of emotional intelligence in construction engineering, construction and architectural management, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 50-65, 2011.
42. M. E. Porter, Competitive Strategy. New York: Free Press, 1980.