Toward a Network Theory of Alliance Formation

International Interactions

Volumn 38, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 295-324

  Cranmer, Skyler J ^a   Desmarais, Bruce A ^b   Kirkland, Justin H ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON   (United States)

Author keywords

alliance formation; alliances; endogenous dependencies; exponential random graph models (ERGMs); networks

Indexed keywords

EID: 84861895546     PISSN: 03050629     EISSN: 15477444     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2012.677741     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Achen, Christopher H. 2002. Toward a New Political Methodology: Microfoundations and ART. Annual Review of Political Science, 5(1): 423-450.
2. Achen, Christopher H. 2005. Let's Put Garbage-can Regressions and Garbage-can Probits Where They Belong. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 22(4): 327-339.
3. Altfeld, Michael A. 1984. The Decision to Ally: A Theory and Test. The Western Political Quarterly, 37(4): 523-544.
4. Bennett, D. Scott and Stam, Allan C. 2004. The Behavioral Origins of War, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
5. Brooks, Stephen. 1997. Dueling Realisms. International Organization, 51(3): 554-577.
6. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1981. The War Trap, New Haven: Yale University Press.
7. Conybeare, John A. C. 1994a. Arms versus Alliances: The Capital Structure of Military Enterprise. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(2): 215-235.
8. Conybeare, John A. C. 1994b. The Portfolio Benefits of Free Riding in Military Alliances. International Studies Quarterly, 38(3): 405-419.
9. Cranmer, Skyler J. and Desmarais, Bruce A. 2011. Inferential Network Analysis with Exponential Random Graph Models. Political Analysis, 19(1): 66-86.
10. Crescenzi, Mark J. C., Kathman, Jacob D., Kleinberg, Katja B. and Wood, Reed M. 2012. Reliability, Reputation, and Alliance Formation. International Studies Quarterly., forthcoming
11. Desmarais, Bruce. 2012. Lessons in Disguise: Multivariate Predictive Mistakes in Collective Choice Models. Public Choice, 151(3): 719-737.
12. Desmarais, Bruce A. and Cranmer, Skyler J. 2012. Statistical Mechanics of Networks: Estimation and Uncertainty. Physica A, 391(4): 1865-1876.
13. Desmarais, Bruce A. and Cranmer, Skyler J. forthcoming. Micro-Level Interpretation of Exponential Random Graph Models with Application to Estuary Networks. Policy Studies Journal,
14. Deutsch, Karl W. and David Singer, J. 1964. Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability. World Politics, 16(3): 390-406.
15. Downs, George W., Rocke, David M. and Barsoom, Peter N. 1996. Is the Good News about Compliance Good News about Cooperation. International Organization, 50(3): 379-406.
16. Duncan, George T. and Siverson, Randolph M. 1982. Flexibility of Alliance Partner Choice in a Multipolar System: Models and Tests. International Studies Quarterly, 26(4): 511-538.
17. Fearon, James D. 1997. Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(1): 68-90.
18. Gartner, Scott S. and Siverson, Randolph M. 1996. War Expansion and War Outcome. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40(1): 4-15.
19. Gartzke, Erik and Kristian, Skrede Gleditsch. 2004. Why Democracies May Actually Be Less Reliable Allies. American Journal of Political Science, 48(4): 775-795.
20. Gartzke, Erik and Joseph Hewitt, J. 2010. International Crises and the Capitalist Peace. International Interactions, 36(2): 115-145.
21. Gibler, Douglas M. 2008. The Costs of Reneging: Reputation and Alliance Formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52(3): 426-454.
22. Gibler, Douglas M. and Vasquez, John A. 1998. Uncovering the Dangerous Alliances, 1495-1980. International Studies Quarterly, 42(4): 785-807.
23. Gibler, Douglas M. and Wolford, Scott. 2006. Alliances, Then Democracy: An Examination of the Relationship between Regime Type and Alliance Formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(1): 129-153.
24. Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics, New York: Cambridge University Press.
25. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Ward, Michael D. 2006. Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization. International Organization, 60(4): 911-933.
26. Hanneke, Steve, Wenjie, Fu and Xing, Eric P. 2010. Discrete Temporal Models of Social Networks. The Electronic Journal of Statistics, 4: 585-605.
27. Kadera, Kelly M. and Sorokin, Gerald L. 2004. Measuring National Power. International Interactions, 30(3): 211-230.
28. Krauthammer, Charles. 1991. The Unipolar Moment. Foreign Affairs, 70(1): 23-33.
29. Krauthammer, Charles. 2002. The Unipolar Moment Revisited. The National Interest, 70(Winter): 5-17.
30. Lai, Brian and Reiter, Dan. 2000. Democracy, Political Similarity, and International Alliances, 1816-1992. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(2): 203-227.
31. Lake, David A. 1999. Entangling Relations: American Foreign Policy in Its Century, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
32. Leeds, Brett Ashley. 1999. Domestic Political Institutions, Credible Commitments, and International Cooperation. American Journal of Political Science, 43(4): 972-1002.
33. Leeds, Brett Ashley. 2003. Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties. International Organization, 57(4): 801-827.
34. Leeds, Brett Ashley, Long, Andrew G. and Sara, McLaughlin Mitchell. 2000. Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(5): 686-699.
35. Leeds, Brett Ashley, Ritter, Jeffrey, Sarah, McLaughlin Mitchell and Long, Andrew. 2002. Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944. International Interactions, 28(3): 237-260.
36. Lemke, Douglas and Reed, William. 1996. Regime Types and Status Quo Evaluations: Power Transition Theory and the Democratic Peace. International Interactions, 22(2): 143-164.
37. Li, Richard P.Y. and Thompson, William R. 1978. The Stochastic Process of Alliance Formation Behavior. American Political Science Review, 72(4): 1288-1303.
38. Liberman, Peter. 1996. Does Conquest Pay? The Exploitation of Occupied Industrial Societies, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
39. Liska, George. 1962. Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
40. Long, Andrew G., Nordstrom, Timothy and Baek, Kyeonghi. 2007. Allying for Peace: Treaty Obligations and Conflict between Allies. Journal of Politics, 69(4): 1103-1117.
41. Maoz, Zeev. 1989. Joining the Club of Nations: Political Development and International Conflict, 1816-1976. International Studies Quarterly, 33(2): 199-231.
42. Maoz, Zeev, Terris, Lesley G., Kuperman, Ranan D. and Talmud, Ilan. 2006. Structural Equivalence and International Conflict, 1816-2001. A Network Analysis of Affinities and Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(5): 664-689.
43. Maoz, Zeev, Terris, Lesley G., Kuperman, Ranan D. and Talmud, Ilan. 2007. What Is the Enemy of My Enemy: Causes and Consequences of Imbalanced International Relations, 1816-2001. Journal of Politics, 69(1): 100-115.
44. Mastanduno, Michael. 1997. Preserving the Unipolar Moment: Realist Theories and U.S. Grand Strategy after the Cold War. International Security, 21(4): 49-88.
45. Miller, Gregory D. 2003. Hypotheses on Reputation: Alliance Choices and the Shadow of the Past. Security Studies, 12(3): 40-78.
46. Morgenthau, Hans J. 1956. Politics Among Nations, 2nd, New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
47. Morrow, James D. 1987. On the Theoretical Basis of a Measure of National Risk Attitudes. International Studies Quarterly, 31(4): 423-438.
48. Morrow, James D. 1991. Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances. American Journal of Political Science, 35(4): 904-933.
49. Morrow, James D. 1993. Arms Versus Allies: Trade-Offs in the Search for Security. International Organization, 47(2): 207-233.
50. Morrow, James D. 1994. Alliances, Credibility, and Peacetime Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38(2): 270-297.
51. Morrow, James D. 2000. Alliances: Why Write Them Down?. Annual Review of Political Science, 3: 63-83.
52. Morrow, James D. 2001. The Institutional Features of the Prisoners of War Treaties. International Organization, 55(4): 971-991.
53. Oren, Ido. 1990. The War Proneness of Alliances. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34(2): 208-233.
54. Organski, Abramo Fimo K. 1968. World Politics, New York: Knopf.
55. Pete, Andras, Pattipati, Krishna R. and Kleinman, David L. 1993. Optimal Team and Individual Decision Rules in Uncertain Dichotomous Situations. Public Choice, 75(3): 205-230.
56. Pickering, Jeffrey and Thompson, William R. 1998. Stability in a Fragmenting World: Interstate Military Force, 1946-1988. Political Research Quarterly, 51(1): 241-263.
57. Powell, Robert. 1999. the Shadow of Power, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
58. Sarkees, Meredith Reid. 2000. The Correlates of Ward Data on War: An Update to 1997. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 18(1): 123-144.
59. Simon, Michael W. and Gartzke, Erik. 1996. Political System Similarity and the Choice of Allies. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40(4): 617-635.
60. Singer, J. David and Small, Melvin. 1967. "Alliance Aggregation and the Onset of War, 1815-1945". In Quantitative International Politics: Insights and Evidence, Edited by: Singer, J. David. 247-286. New York: Free Press.
61. Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart and Stuckey, John. 1972. "Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965". In Peace, War, and Numbers, Edited by: Russett, Bruce. 19-48. Beverly Hills: Sage.
62. Siverson, Randolph M. and Starr, Harvey. 1990. Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War. The American Political Science Review, 84(1): 47-67.
63. Siverson, Randolph M. and Starr, Harvey. 1991. The Diffusion of War: A Study of Opportunity and Willingness, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
64. Siverson, Randolph M. and Starr, Harvey. 1994. Regime Change and the Restructuring of Alliances. American Journal of Political Science, 38(1): 145-161.
65. Siverson, Randolph M. and King, Joel. 1980. Attributes of National Alliance Membership and War Participation, 1815-1965. American Journal of Political Science, 24(1): 1-15.
66. Siverson, Randolph M. and Emmons, Juliann. 1991. Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices in the Twentieth Century. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35(2): 285-306.
67. Siverson, Randolph M. and Tennefoss, Michael R. 1984. Power, Alliance, and the Escalation of International Conflict, 1815-1965. American Political Science Review, 78(4): 1057-1069.
68. Smith, Alastair. 1995. Alliance Formation and War. International Studies Quarterly, 39(4): 405-425.
69. Smith, Alastair. 1996. To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40(1): 16-40.
70. Smith, Alastair. 1998. Extended Deterrence and Alliance Formation. International Interactions, 24(4): 315-343.
71. Snijders, Tom A.B. 2001. The Statistical Evaluation of Social Network Dynamics. Sociological Methodology, 31(1): 361-395.
72. Snyder, Glenn H. 1984. The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics. World Politics, 36(4): 461-495.
73. Snyder, Glenn H. 1997. Alliance Politics, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
74. Väyrynen, Raimo. 1984. Regional Conflict Formations: An Intractable Problem of International Relations. Journal of Peace Research, 21(4): 337-359.
75. Walt, Stephen M. 1985. Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4): 3-43.
76. Walt, Stephen M. 1987. The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
77. Waltz, Kenneth N. 1954. Man, The State, and War, New York: Columbia University Press.
78. Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics, New York: McGraw Hill.
79. Warren, Camber. 2010. The Geometry of Security: Modeling Interstate Alliances as Evolving Networks. Journal of Peace Research, 47(6): 697-709.